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Evan Turner ≠ Bust

There's one thing you didn't cover here. I don't think Iguodala would have a problem playing off the ball, he did it to the extreme for Team USA. But what if Turner needs to dominate the ball to the point where Jrue can't be an effective, true PG? I think that's the bigger issue if Turner can't change his game at this level.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Oct 2 at 16:28
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Yeah, that would be a big issue. I'm personally confident that Turner will thrive as a SG... but I guess it could be a problem.

But say Turner becomes someone like Roy/Kobe/Wade who is really good but needs the ball (dreaming maybe :) ) Wouldn't Jrue be great next to those players. Especially since Jrue can shoot and do other things like post up guards.

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bebopdeluxe reply to tk76 on Oct 2 at 23:59
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Amen, bro. Don't see the downside of running some sets with Turner initiating things and Jrue posting or spreading the floor because of his 3-point shooting.

Do you?

Let's not let our collective man-love over Jrue close our minds to the possibility of running, say, 25% of the plays with Turner on top and Jrue on the wing. The world will not end if this happens...and Jrue can still be the stud-muffin at PG that everybody wants.

Great job, by the way. And thanks for contributing the post.

Excellent. Thank you for a well written intelligently laid out post that sums up to me how I feel about the situation, and probably better than I could as well. And I do agree with Brians assertion (and have for years) that Andre Iguodala can play off the ball, well, and doesn't have any sort of need to be the 'center' of attention. That's a role thrust upon him by the sixers that he never really had at any level. He's always been a very above average all around player but not to the 'go to' scorer many think he should/needs/demands to be.

I have no doubt that Turner will adjust fine to the NBA presuming he gets quality coaching

Given Turner's struggles, why is there no thought of starting him at small forward and Dre at the 2? Does it really make a difference in the offensive scheme? He's played 1,2 and 3 in college effectively and can probaly rebound at the same rate as Thad or better. It might be best for Turner to be the third option right now. Just let him play off Jrue and Dre till he gets him NBA legs under him. Kinda how Dre looked as a rookie. How has Dre looked playing off the ball?

Because it's summer league and pre-season and he's still learning how to play the game the sixers want him to play. Starting him at SF is a severe over reaction into a career with zero professional games

Of course Turner is and will be a 2 guard but I don't think putting him at the 3 ISA bad option if it allows him to get adjusted to the offense. I'm not even sure if there's a difference in the roles of those positions in there schemes. Besides, what's more of an over reaction? Starting him at the 3 or coming of the bench?

Where he plays, be it two or three, is irrelevant as much as who he is playing with and his role in the offense. It's less than a week of training camp.

The main point (I took) for the article was that fans who are looking for immediate Lebron James rookie year like impact have to have patience, and more than probably you would think for a #2 pick because this #2 pick is expected to take a different approach to the game.

Most of the summer, many people talked about Collins and how they were glad he was the coach and that he would know how to develop the players best. Now here's a prime example. If you have faith in Collins the coach in theory then one has to have faith that Collins knows how best to handle Turner.

I believe that he'll play his way into minutes ahead of Lou, if not the starting line up, by the 20th game of the season, and he will have made the desired adjustments to his game the sixers want (though they should focus on 'fixing' Iguodala to play off the ball too).

If that doesn't happen, then I get concerned. I'm not concerned about Evan Turner even a bit just yet, it's too early in my opinion to worry

I think most people concerns come from several points. First is Turner's showing in summer league. Second is since i totally believe in Collins, I gotta believe it when he sais Turner has struggled with making the adjustment to playing of the ball. Thats thw whole basis of Collin's system. Third is Turner is not playing with the starting right now. That means listeng to Collin's logic that Dre and Thad are still playing out of position.
I believe Turner will be just where he needs to be as a player by the end of the season regardless of what is numbers are but some Sixers fans want immedate results.

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tk76 reply to KellyDad on Oct 2 at 16:11
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I agree that a lot of fans will be initially disapointed. But I think those same fans might jump back on the bandwagon when he starts lighting it up after the All Star break. I also think there could be a trade brewing now that I hear Thad is full time SF.

And like I've said (quite a few times) the reactions to poor play in summer league are vastly blown out of proportion in my mind. People are freaking out over 5 games in 5 days (when did Evan Turner play 5 games in 5 days when he was in game shape) after 3+ months of very little basketball activity leading up to the draft.

Numerous players have looked great in summer league who have gone on to do stank the next year (including the former great sixer John Salmons) while others (rookies especially) have stank in summer league their first rookie year and turned out just fine (like Jrue Holiday) after a full nba season they look much better in their second summer league.

I also believe people are reading too much into COllins comments. He said it's difficult, did he say he wasn't doing it? Did he say he won't get it.

Again, the expectations of immediate impact, way too high, and people freaking out over small rather (to me) less significant things than they make them out to be.

I see no reason to be converned about anything just yet - 20 games in - then it could be a problem

Thing is, all most fans have been hearing since before the draft is Turner is "the most polished player in the draft" and " he's ready to contribe now". Now two weeks into camp you hear "struggle" and "bench" fans get nervous.

That's why fans don't run the team :)

He's polished and ready to go for any team that wants him to be the center of the offense like he was in college.

If the sixers were going to build the offense around Turner he'd be starting.

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eddies' heady's on Oct 2 at 14:54
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Decent article. Whole lot of 'if' scenarios though. My issue is that the Sixers have a notorious history of trying to make players into something they're not. They always seem to believe they have the magic potion to 'convert' a guy to a position that is not his best one.

My opinion has always been, going back to his junior year, that Evan is best suited for a ball-dominant point-forward type role but would end up being a point-forward with a high number of turnovers.

He's good at several different things, but really doesn't do any one thing extremely well. That screams role player to me, while my hopes after lucking up on the #2 pick was that we would cast ourselves upon a star.

Asking guys to "change" their game is an arduous task, especially when moving up a level. The adjustment period of just moving up that level is laborious in and of itself.

You mention that we can just trade Andre if things don't exactly pan out. I don't ever see Evan being anywhere close to as good as Andre is now. It would be a one step forward (clearing his contract), two steps back (Evan not as good and Thad not as good or overpaying for that SF who can defend and hit open shots ala Outlaw as you mentioned) type thing.

I'm hoping that the experience of Collins makes it more likely for Turner to adjust better. Since Larry Brown left, the sixers haven't exactly been stocked with quality coaches and Collins is far and away the best guy they've had since Brown left (Thank goodness Eddie Jordan didn't get his hands on Evan Turner)

I'm trying to have hope. Large numbers says the sixers have to get it right one of these times, and since Young and Speights are no's, even Iguodala was a no when it came to the changing role principle. I'm hoping Turner becomes a yes. (I don't believe Holiday fits into it because he hasn't been asked to change who he really is, he just wasn't plaoyed for what he really is in college, he's playing as I believe he always has)

It's definitely too early to reach any conclusive verdicts about Turner's career.

However, since the exercise is to break things down into possibilities, I'd like to point out (once again) that there is an huge gap in performance between what fans hope for (unobjectively) from a #2 pick and someone who is just a quality NBA player. If Turner turns out to be a quality NBA player and not the kind of player typical fans hope for from the #2 pick - and I continue to see this as the most likely scenario - at that point, the early verdict on Turner's career projection will be in, but the debate about "bust" will remain.

I disagree with the claim "Based on his skill-set and college performance, he could step in tomorrow and average 16/5/5 and go up from there." IMO, the objective evidence for that idea, involving a high confidence projection from NCAA performance of a 6'7" PG to what he can do on the NBA level is weak, and also placing the mean estimate of that performance at too high a level for a rookie. Rougly speaking, I see three dimensions of uncertainty where the column focuses on one. I'm uncertain about what Turner can do in an NBA offense ideally suited to him now, I'm uncertain about how much he will improve over the next few years, and I'm uncertain about what he can do to fit in with the rest of the current Sixer roster. I'm agreed to the idea that the latter is the least important, but not to the idea that we have comfortable answers to the first two dimensions.

FWIW, I take it as a small but good sign that Collins talks about "light years" of progress from Turner between the Summer league and now. Players who actually make light years of progress in a few months time rarely wind up being called "busts" when all is said and done.


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eddies' heady's reply to izimbra on Oct 2 at 15:09
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"If Turner turns out to be a quality NBA player and not the kind of player typical fans hope for from the #2 pick - and I continue to see this as the most likely scenario - at that point, the early verdict on Turner's career projection will be in, but the debate about "bust" will remain."

^ what he said! My feelings almost exactly.


But that "light years" that Collins mentioned has to be taken into consideration of how bad he actually was in SL. Hence, why I think you said 'small' sign.

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tk76 reply to izimbra on Oct 2 at 15:26
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"I disagree with the claim "Based on his skill-set and college performance, he could step in tomorrow and average 16/5/5 and go up from there.""

I probably should have prefaced that with an IMO.

But the guy has 3 years of college experience, excellent size and quickness at the SG position and was absolutely dominant (and efficient) at the major college level. There have been very few player who could do what he did last year. namely take a bad team on his back, and lead it to a #2 seed while ranking near the top in FG%, pts, reb and asst.

I'm not saying everything about his game will translate- but if you put the ball in his hands 90% of the time like Tyreke last year (arguable not a true PG either), you have to figure Turner has the skill, talent and guile to put up gaudy numbers.

To think he would struggle in that role simply because he struggled off the ball in summer league or because he played in the Big Ten seems shortsighted.

Looking at it reverse- say Tyreke Evans was a rookie on the Sixers this year, and put in a role as a guy who ran off of screens and took open jumpers. How would that go?

Not quite sure what you are arguing. It's not true that Turner has all the same physical attributes and skills of Tyreke Evans, nor is it true that statistically dominant NCAA players are always expected to have a big NBA impact (e.g. Tyler Hansbrough). I was arguing even prior to the draft that it was a big unknown what was going to happen when Turner was trying to put moves on an NBA level perimeter player and not a guy who maybe plays forward for Wisconsin or guard for Penn State. Tyreke was pretty good at getting past NBA guys and finishing. Maybe Turner will be or maybe he won't be.

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tk76 reply to izimbra on Oct 2 at 16:02
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Look back at every guard picked in the top 5 for the last 30 years. Name all of the ones who were not at least average NBA starters (except the ones that died or had career ending injuries.) IMO there should be no question that Turner will be a good player. The question is how good.

As for Tyreke, I'm not saying they have similar physical abilities. I'm saying they are both big guards who can score and create but are not true PG's or great shooters. I'm saying Tyreke was given the chance to control the ball, and Turner will not get that chance on this team.

Do your really think Turner, who was dominant in college, could not put up good numbers this year if he was allowed to dominate dominate the ball? If not there is probably no stat or scouting report that will change your mind.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Oct 2 at 16:34
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Sorry Izimbra, the tone of my reply comes off as way more confrontational than I intended.

Basically, I think guards picked high tend to have good track records, and since no one will know until Turner has actually played a few seasons I can only go by his college resume and what scouts have said. So there is no way either of us could prove ourselves right- but I don't think I'm going that far out on a limb based on other guards drafted top 5.

I have reservations about using "guard picked in the top 5" and similar categories as a base case here, for several reasons.

Turner excelled as a 6'7" PG. Of course being tall for a position is a good thing, but he wasn't drafted to play PG. The reason for that is not because the Sixers have Holiday; it's because Turner doesn't have good speed for an NBA PG, was a little too turnover prone, and has great passing and ball handling skills relative to expectations at other positions and only decent ones relative to NBA expectations at PG. So we are left with questions because Turner is expected to play a different role in the NBA than he did in the NCAA against different sort of competition. Now let's go back and ask, "How big is the set of guards picked in the top 5 who are projected to play a different role in the NBA than they previously?" We must also consider that a lot of lottery picks are chosen because they have physical/athletic advantages over the average player. Those advantages don't always translate to success, but they are real and tangible - that is, they are still there year after year until either the player gets old or has a damaging injury. Going back to the base case - What is the set of guards picked in the top 5 who were both expected to do something different than what they excelled at previously and who were not seen as having significant physical/athletic advantages for their designated NBA position? Is that set empty now? Are there any other examples like that?

Our ability to marshal empirical evidence to support a prediction about Turner is confused by the combination of the facts that he played a PG role in college where he had a physical advantage compared to other PGs (his height) and we are trying to project performance for a different role in the NBA where he won't have a physical advantage, but only an advantage in skills other than shooting. My take therefore is that if Turner becomes a great shooter, then he has a chance to be a player like Brandon Roy, but if not, then I'd probably see him as similar to other NBA SGs who have a lot of skill and good height, but are not great shooters or great athletes.

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tk76 reply to izimbra on Oct 2 at 17:05
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Turner was projected as a lottery pick after his Sophomore year (before he assumed the PG role.) He is pretty versatile, and not even a bad shooter (like Iguodala was entering the year.)

If anything I could see Turner filling a role similar to the one Kobe, Wade and Roy fill. A ball dominant SG. I doubt he will reach superstar level because he is not physically dominant like Wade or Kobe(was.)

That would be Turner's natural role based on his size and skill-set. My post basically says that wole may not currently be available. But that does not preclude Turner adapting his game.

I think there is a lot of room to question how Turner will fit long term with Iguodala and Jrue. It may or may not work. But I have a lot higher opinion of Turners game than you. And I think the majority of NBA people would agree- but that in no way presumes I'll be right.

Now you have implicitly moved your base case from "guard picked in the top 5" to "guards somebody claimed would have been picked somewhere in the lottery" in a context where the discussion is about some fans being disappointed with the #2 pick.

In my prior posts I argued why it is hard to translate Turner's NCAA accomplishments to NBA projections. But if you take those out of the picture, I don't understand what it is about Turner that would provoke a similarity comparison to Kobe or Wade within the set of guys at the NBA level. Kobe and Wade were known for their speed and explosiveness and they also developed into strong outside shooters. I won't count out Turner's ability to come in his 2nd year and blow by his man to score, but the current conversation is triggered by indications that Turner isn't ready to do that now with NBA level competition, along with the clash between that inability and the perceptions of some fans that he would be ready and able to do this when they were evaluating him as the #2 pick. Some of those fans thought the Sixers were getting their goto scorer.

Iguodala wasn't picked top5, but I might well count him as a successful pick if he had been - depending on who else was available for that selection. Don't know if Turner will have a greater or lesser NBA career compared to Iguodala, but I do know that all the Philly fans claiming they would never attend another Sixer game if the Sixers didn't pick Turner weren't saying that with the idea that Turner might develop into a player with similar overall strengths and weaknesses to Iguodala after two or three years of further development.

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eddies' heady's on Oct 2 at 15:02
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Wanted to touch on one more thing that was said:

"It's not about lack of ability; it's about what is best for the team."

But isn't it about lack of ability, if you can't beat out Lou for minutes at the 2 or show you are better suited for the team at the 2 than Thad is at the 3 (allowing Andre to shift over to SF with Thad off the bench)?

If you can't show enough being "a talented, "NBA" ready 22-year-old stud wing" to cement the spot the team desperately needs, what else can it be other than lack of ability?

Except that it's only been half a week of training camp and if you take Collins at his word they are easing Turner in by having him first play at what he's used to doing from college before learning to play off the ball.

It's still early to say he can't be Lou Williams out. If by the 20th game of the season (quarter pole) he hasn't beaten Lou out for minutes, I'll be concerned.

At the same time though, I have a concern that Collins is more worried about the won loss record than the development of younger players.

Apparently, the headline was too confusing for some people on Twitter. Just to clarify, the symbol in the headline means DOES NOT EQUAL.

Can't spell Twitter without Twit ;)

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tk76 reply to Brian on Oct 2 at 16:51
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well the link replaces the does not equal sign with a "-"

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smh1980 on Oct 2 at 16:00
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Young is no longer a PF... for right now.


Collins said today he does not want to play Young at the power forward.

"I'm not going to do that right now because I want him to think as a three," Collins explained. "I told our big guys, 'I do not want to have to go to a small lineup right now so you have to rebound and defend your position so you don’t make me want to tinker around and do that.'"

"He’s playing in a spot," continued Collins. "And we’re putting him in a position where he’s going to be closer to the basket."

Right now, the big difference for Young is on the defensive end. In the few segments we've watched, we've seen Young guarding Evan Turner, Jason Kapono, even Jodie Meeks.

"I’ve been trying my best to think as a small forward," Young said. "Sometimes it’s hard when you’re out there guarding guards and that transition is hard. I’ve been guarding fours since I came into the league and now you’re chasing Kapono and Jodie and Lou and other guys off the screens. It’s hard. The good thing is I’m creating good habits ... It shows they have a lot of confidence in me. I’m going to prove everybody wrong about me playing the four and that I’m only a four. I thank those guys for giving me a chance to go out there and start at the small forward spot."


Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/76ers_on_display.html#ixzz11EWj8d7l

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tk76 reply to smh1980 on Oct 2 at 16:09
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I'm becoming more of a fan of Collins every day. This is what I wanted to here 2 seasons ago, because physically Thad will always be overmatched at PF.

I do wish that Thad was told he was going to be a SF earlier this summer. I also wonder if this experiment is a precursor to a trade... as we are running headlong into a minutes crunch even if Noci is picking splinters.

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johnrosz reply to tk76 on Oct 2 at 17:28
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I was so puzzled when a lot of folks around here weren't thrilled with the Collins hire. Don't think a lot of people realized what a terrific coach/teacher they were getting. for a young team in dire need of a sense of direction

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tk76 reply to johnrosz on Oct 2 at 17:41
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Yeah, Collins has been impressive so far. There are a number of areas where he sounded off base when he was hired (Igudoala at PF, Thad at PF, Brand at C...), but it seems like the more he's watched the team the more he's come around to most of the prevailing viewpoints here.

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johnrosz reply to tk76 on Oct 2 at 17:57
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So happy to see that they've finally settled on Thad at the 3. This will be a make or break year for him. Like I said all along, I think Collins will be enamored with Youngs talent. Letting him settle on a position might be the first step in trying to get Thad to put it all together.

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eddies' heady's reply to smh1980 on Oct 2 at 19:59
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Telling to me that Thad says he's chasing Kapono, Jodie, and Lou but not chasing Evan. I somewhat agree with them trying to ease him into his transition. It's just disappointing they're having to acquiesce to him merely because he isn't ready or maybe doesn't have the ability to succeed at this point.

It's true we all don't know what the outcome will be, but considering the frequent references to his psyche being so easily fractured, I sort of worry with the pacification of a 23 year old.

Fourth coach in four years, a kid who entered the league when he was 19 and has been playing out of position for 3 years. Thad is not without 'blame' in his failure to develop yet but this is a key year for his development and I think Collins is putting him in a position to succeed if he works at it, which is what part of a coach's job is these days of guaranteed contracts and caps and such. You take the talent you have and put them in the best position to succeed, but the players still need to work at it. This is a make or break year for Thad's future in the NBA, and I'm ok with how COllins is handling most everything so far (except making Hawes the defacto starter actually)

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on Oct 3 at 10:24
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Huh? I wasn't referring to Thad.

Sorry, that paragraph was a little confusing to me

Brian or Statman- had an idea for a post that maybe you would want to run with.

Was thinking about this years Sixers as compared to the Hubie Brown coached Grizzlies that jumped from 28 -> 50 wins without adding significant talent.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MEM/2004.html

That was another young, deep athletic team that finally clicked under a veteran, demanding coach.

16 Pau Gasol F 7-0 227 July 6, 1980 2

Just saying, that might have something to do with it

The way Firefox is formatting this page, I get Rene Zellweger in all sorts of funny spots, including just below the last comment. Combine that with my sometime inattentiveness, and I actually spent about 10 seconds trying to figure out why GoSixers thought Zellweger had contributed to the Grizzlies turnaround.

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Joe reply to tk76 on Oct 3 at 16:08
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When I check this out, I immediately see the following things...

Pythagorean W-L on b-r.com says they "should" have won 32 and 48. So the 22 game improvement maybe was more like 16.

James Posey wasn't on the team the previous year and was terrific for Memphis. Mike Miller also was added since he missed most of the previous season.

Anyway, at a glance it looks like they added some significant talent.

Excellent blog. I would like us all to remember last year this time when so many were saying how Jrue was a bust and no where close to Lawson! I think we need to give it this year and see where it ends up.

In reference to Collins, I have always had him my first choice. I still do and am proud that I have been consistent. I think he is doing a great job so far and look forward to a bright future as a 76er fan and season ticket holder.

Dean, are you suggesting we refrain from jumping to conclusions and overreacting? At a Philly sports blog?

We'll see how well that works out.

Oh come on, if you want over reacting and jumping to conclusions with little to no evidence (or knowledge) i can think of at least 7 different places on the web off the top of my head :)

Yeah, we're good at it. And some of us are real good. But we're not the best.

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smh1980 on Oct 3 at 0:50
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just a look around the league a little bit:

Favors showing his elite athleticism at camp:

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/nets/favors_shows_flash_k870HhNbQiRsUzZkC2MsPO

I think just as a grammatical matter it's ridiculous to say that he's not a bust before he's played a game. He isn't a bust and he isn't a non-bust either. We have no idea what he is. You can say that he won't be a bust and you're probably right, but you can't say that he's not a bust. Besides, your claim about top 5 guards just isn't true. Mike Conley isn't a productive NBA starter. At the end of his rookie contract, he will not have a starting job in this league; he will be lucky to be Kevin Ollie. Adam Morrison's a swingman with one inch on Turner, and he was a bust. Felton's a starting point guard, but if Turner's merely as good a player as Felton, he'll be a huge bust. Darius Miles was a guard-forward. Bust? Antonio Daniels was a bust. He averaged 7 points and 3 assists over his career. Aren't we stretching "productive starter" a little here? J.R. Rider produced for a while on an awful team, but he certainly wasn't a good player. Kenny Anderson had about three good seasons.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Oct 3 at 15:32
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You found a few good examples of guys who turned out poorly. A few are forwards, but Conley and Daniels were busts without injuries or major red flags.

Overall, I'd say the track record for dominant college guards drafted high is far better than for bigs. But there definitely are no guarantees with the draft.

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Tray reply to tk76 on Oct 4 at 14:41
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That's true, no one drafts a guard that high unless they're pretty sure he'll be great.

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deepsixersuede on Oct 3 at 8:22
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I want to touch on 2 points, taking the best player available over best fit and Jrue and Evan working together.

1] The fact we were mentioned in the Carmelo sweepstakes made me feel good about the young talent here and we added 2 valuable pieces this summer. With a good coach teaching our young talent now they all should go up in value for us or some other team, a win-win situation.

2] As far as Jrue and Evan, I am not sold on Jrue having the ball 80% of the time yet. Who is more efficient and tough to cover up top still remains to be seen along with who creates a better mismatch on the wing at times. I look back on Dumars and Thomas as an example; both could create for each other depending on mismatches and Daly's ideas on how to attack a team. Larry Brown said he moved A.I. to the off-guard so he didn't have to drive by 5 people up top to score, well there are a lot of p.g.'s who are gonna have major issues guarding Jrue and I , for one, hope he gets put on the wing some nights to take advantage of said mismatches.

Brian is right, Iggy and Turner shouldn't be a problem and I believe as long as one of our bigs can hit a jumper this will work.

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76ciology on Oct 3 at 10:27
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I think it's not really a concern that ET's not starting for our team right now. It's just DC's way of making sure his rookie don't get pressured so much because of the media/team's high expectations. And I can understand it from DC's side because ET seems to be hard on himself.

If ET was just playing for a less talented team, I think we'd be hearing the same buzz we heard from the Kings last season with Tyreke Evans. On how big and skilled he was at the PG position and how much of a nightmare it would be for opposing PGs to face him. It's just that he's in a tough situation with us, not given the team's best player treatment and he has to respect the superior players in this team in Jrue and Iggy, where he's now be forced, for his better, to adjust on being a scoring SG rather than a facilitator PG.

I think we need to look at the bright side and realize that what's happening right now is for the better for the team and ET.

For the 76ers, it would give us the chance to see how Thad's length, athleticism and talent would pan out at the SF position. If he does well at that position, then maybe it would make Iggy more expendable. That means another trade asset for us.

For ET, atleast we had him playing the game the right way at this early stage of his career. Where we'd utilize his size, ability to create his own shots and mid range game at the SG position.

I think ET will be just fine. What would stop the guy from living up from being the team's no.2 overall pick? He has the instinct, size and the skills to excel at the PG and the SG positions.

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tk76 reply to 76ciology on Oct 3 at 11:11
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Well stated.

tk76: nice job on your first (?) post for this site. I was focused on football most of the day and was surprised to see a new post up today.

While I'd agree that it's very premature to call Turner anything (especially a "bust"), the type of problems he's been having are more worrisome than anything else: "can't get open," "can't get past his man." For me, such descriptions are a red flag because they remind me of Danny Ferry, another College Player of the Year and #2 overall pick. Ferry had the shot and the intelligence to play in the NBA, but not the athleticism. Hopefully it won't wind up being that way for Turner. I'm excited to see him play against the Celtics next Wednesday (will be televised where I am) and will be watching that aspect closely.

Here's a question for you: if 5 years from now Evan Turner has had the career that Iguodala had his first five years, would you say that Turner was a "bust" or that the pick had "panned out"? The answer to that would reveal something about the irrational expectations of the average Philly fan (or the average sports fan in general). Same question would go for Kolb and McNabb ten years from now.

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tk76 reply to Statman on Oct 3 at 22:52
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If you look at #2 overall picks over the past 30 years, Iguodala compares favorably to them (probably better than 2/3rds of them.) So if Turner is as good as Iguodala then they did fine.

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76ciology reply to tk76 on Oct 5 at 3:21
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"If you look at #2 overall picks over the past 30 years, Iguodala compares favorably to them (probably better than 2/3rds of them.) So if Turner is as good as Iguodala then they did fine."

If being a "bust" means being a disappointment, then I think I'd classify Turner as a bust if he ends up being just in the "Andre Iguodala level."

We know how hard it is to get a top 3 pick in this league. Last season just show you that tanking along won't get you one. For the majority of it, it involves serious amount of luck.

With that said, we didn't use the no.2 overall pick for a borderline all-star or a glue guy type player. We picked Turner over Favors and Cousins was because he's the player who'd be most likely be an all-star/superstar after John Wall.

And I still believe that Turner can become an all-star/superstar caliber player. Because he has all the tools to make it happen. It just comes down to how fast he can adjust with the style of the NBA.

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tk76 reply to 76ciology on Oct 5 at 3:32
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I agree that you need to swing for the fences when you have the #2 overall pick. But if you hit a double (near All-star like Iguodala-level) then you did well and are not a "bust." You could maybe say that if your #1 overall pick only turned out to be an Iguodala-level player you would be disappointed, but the @2 overall pick often is a tier down )and sometimes a Duncan-KVH huge step down.).

Iguodala is probably close to about the average 2nd or 3rd best player in a given draft class. And if you get that from the #2 pick you did pretty well IMO. And Iguodala is better than the majority of players taken #2- see the list here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2.htm


Well here is my take on things....

Turner was top ten in 14 statistical categories for both his sophomore and junior seasons in the Big Ten. He was top four in 12 of those categories his junior (last) year when he swept all the player of the year awards given out to D-I players. He knows how to contribute on the floor. He will find ways to contribute on the floor, he is adaptable and I expect him to get minutes at all three wing positions (PG,SG,SF) with him playing much of this year as a backup at both guard positions.

Most high lottery picks are going to teams that are poorly constructed roster wise. They are usually terrible teams that throw those high picks out there to generate fan interest. They have no problem with a little freelancing and such. They also end up getting a ton of shots and scoring opportunities. Winning isn't always a priority in those situations.

The Sixers are coming off a terrible season where the team did not have an experienced PG coming into the season on the roster. Lou Will is no PG, he knows that, Collins knows that, and so do the vast majority of basketball fans, writers, coaches, players, etc. Collins is doing what is needed on this team and will probably work to develop Turner as a backup at PG so that the second unit will function properly as a unit and that if in the event of an injury to Holiday he can fill in and start. Turner will also get some time at SG and SF depending on the flow of the game, matchups and who is on that particular night.

This team's talent is much better than its record was last year. We were basically a .500 team two years in a row as we made the playoffs.

Collins knows that just because someone comes off the bench doesn't mean that they don't contribute and that they can't contribute. Also just because someone scores 8-10 ppg doesn't mean the next year won't see increases. One of the problems Turner is having is with the stregnth of players at this level. He is going to have to add some muscle to his frame to compete at this level. Collins was backed up as a player by Lloyd (World B.) Free who averaged just over 8ppg as a rookie, then increased to 16+, and 15+ his next two seasons. His fourth and fifth year he finished second to George Gervin in scoring both years, averaging 28.8 and 30.2ppg.

Knowing this I would not be upset if Turner didn't get a ton of minutes (he'll get at least 20 a night) and only scored 8-10 ppg his first year. He has the smarts and talent, he is figuring out how he will fit on the team and in the league and I am confident he will be much much better his second and subsequent years as he gains strength and experience.


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