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Is Time Running Out For Thad?

I really agree with this. Thad's defensive instincts aren't great, and that's a problem when you're the defintion of a tweener. He got burned by Sefalosha last night, which basically sums up the end of his hope playing perimeter defense. We already know he's not an ideal four.

Don't underestimate Willie's role in helping three point defense as well though. He was horrendous at that. Overhelping, stupid helping, Willie did that very well. Check out the OKC game thread from last year where Brian tracked how many points Willie gave up :)

Hey, stop picking on Willie. Negative comments are only allowed to be directed at Iguodala. Didn't you get the memo?

Seriously, though. The three point defense is keeping them in these games. Basically, the perimeter defense as a whole is giving them a decent shot. Collins is using the only real strength he has, and using it very well.

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Rich reply to Brian on Nov 12 at 2:35
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Yeah I forgot about Iguodala. Come on though, you were counting the points against Willie with delight : ) The problem with all of the Iguodala hate is that the scoring falls on his shoulders completely when we've come to the conclusion that he's not a natural #1 scorer.

I got mad at Magee for criticizing people a few weeks ago, but I can see why he gets mad about the criticism about Iggy. I get mad too. Jrue is the only guy we can all believe in.

The three point defense is great. Maybe another video post if I see something in the next couple games to see what Collins is doing. It's weird because they are gambling a lot, but they still play great three point defense. I guess that's because it's a layup line at times, but sill.

It's weird because they are gambling a lot, but they still play great three point defense.

Actually, their 2-point FG defense has gotten slightly better too. Last year, it was around 49.7%. This year, it's 49.1%, even with the Dalembert/Hawes tradeoff. In fact, the team eFG% is 10th in the league, and they have a positive eFG% differential for the first time in recent memory.

The Sixers are also above average in opponent turnover rate (5th in the league -- they've always been decent in recent years) and defensive rebound rate (10th, compared to 21st last year). As Brian has mentioned a few times, the area where they are struggling is fouling too much (last in the league in opponent FTA/FGA). That, combined with poor "free throw defense" (opponents make almost 80% of FTs vs. the Sixers, league average is 76%) also means the Sixers are dead last in opponents' points per shot. [PPS is sometimes misleading, but it's definitely not something you want to be last in the league in on defense.]

What I wonder is whether these numbers are sustainable, because if they are, it means the Sixers are a pretty good team and will be in a lot of games this year. (One can start to wonder about that even without looking at the advanced stats.)

Sixers loss it all their chance when they let go of Iverson.

How about this Turner statistic:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=sg&sort=defReboundRate&action=upsell&appRedirect=http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics%3fposition%3dsg%26sort%3ddefReboundRate

His defensive rebound rate thus far is of the charts for a perimeter player.
For comparison

Turner has 23.3

next best SG is Fields at 18.5
best PG is Paul at 15.7
best SF James Johnson at 27.7 (with less than 50min played total)
next best SF T.Williams at 22.6

This is absolutely unbelievable...

Lol you read my mind and mentioned this on Sixers beat haha. I just heard haha...

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deepsixersuede on Nov 12 at 8:22
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If Thad's value is low league wide because of his salary situation and defensive problems what do you settle for?

1]trade exception, 2-2nd rounders
2]other teams disappointment [E.Clark,C.Wilcox, B.Wright,J.Wright?]
3]H.Whiteside [Sac. under cap]Sac. has a lot of 4/5 players and playing J.Thompson at 3 alot.
4]Ajinca and trade exemption

Does getting a trade exemption and a 2nd rounder give the team more flexability in the trade market after Dec. 15th?

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khouse reply to deepsixersuede on Nov 12 at 8:47
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Don't we already have a trade exemption of more than 2 million dollars from the Dalembert trade?

I would roll the dice on B Wright from GS - gives you some length and shot blocking. Classic "change of scenery" type trade for both guys.

Thad seems like a nice kid and I was completely on board with the pick when it was made, but the truth is that he is a mediocre NBA player.

IMO, he doesn't have a single above average NBA skill - that is a player that is easily replaced, not one that should be re-signed.

It's unfortunate, but he came to this organization during these "dark years" where his chances of developing were undermined by the absolute lack of direction that has defined this organization since LB left.

He may yet develop into a more effective NBA player, but it won't happen here. The cost of re-signing him would be prohibitive relative to the likelihood of him improving.

I think he's an above average finisher, and obviously great in transition. I still think Thad can put it together, he has the physical tools, work ethic, and is apparently book smart (if that hasn't translated to the court yet), and he's still a very young 22 who hasn't had any consistency in the direction on this team. That being said, it's a gamble that Young ever figures it out, and until that time he's a bench player. I think he can be a good 6th-7th man (although on this team, his skillset isn't as necessary and he'd be playing almost entirely out of position), and I'd be ok with keeping him around while he figures it out at a reasonable, Lou-Williams level salary. I just have a feeling he's going to command more if he hits the open market.

I'm not dying to trade Thad, because even without his cap hold we're not going to have cap space next year, and I'd be ok seeing what the open market sets for him. But if you got value back that's a better fit for this team, or you could package Young with something else to get a legitimate starter, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him.

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Jason reply to Derek Bodner on Nov 12 at 9:27
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Do you think that Thad can put it together as a 4?

As a starter? No. As a combo-forward who you can use off the bench in favorable matchups? Maybe. It would help if he could get into the 17-20% drb% range.

Who the heck is guarding Nowitzki?

pupuplatter? brand, nocioni, thad, HAWES?

is he going to drop like 40 ?

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Jack Straw on Nov 12 at 10:04
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If it hasn't already happened, I'd like to think that now would be the time for Thad to do some soul searching and come to the realization that Collins won't keep him in the game if he doesn't shake his habits on the defensive end. Given his current circumstances (stubborn defensive minded coach, logjam at his position, contract year), it would certainly be in his best interest to take his dedication to the defensive side of the ball to new heights.

With guys like Meeks and Turner making their case for playing time (not to mention, Iguodala returning to the lineup), it'll be interesting to see if Thad can play his way back into the rotation or if he slowly blends into the bench alongside Speights and Hawes.

I like Thad... I think he's got a prototypical SF frame with elite speed/athleticism and a solid work ethic. That said, his weaknesses are exploited on this roster and his strengths, while nice, really aren't an ideal fit next to our core players. I think Thad (along with Hawes, Speights, Kapono/expiring, and Songaila/expiring) should be shopped around if they can bring back some quality players that give the roster a better balance.

First thing, small sample size for the whole 3 point defense improvement. Right now, Brand could be a top 20 player depending on sample size. Jodie Meeks and Tony Battie could also be a top 20 or so players right now depending on sample size.

My issue with Thad is he will be overpaid. It just is a fact to me. I don't want him on this team no matter what he does this year, unless it is learn how to improve his defense greatly and improve his rebounding by over 50% from last year.

If given 35 minutes or so, Thad would garner full MLE money easily this offseason historically. He would be a 22(maybe 23) year old averaging like 14-15 a game and 5 rebounds on 50% shooting. And he isn't worth near that based on his production. He was just a terrible NBA player last year IMO.

Everything is a small sample size at this point of the season, doesn't mean we can't look at trends. This one has been pretty remarkable considering the team's performance in three-point defense the last couple of years.

I agree Thad will probably be overpaid. Personally, I think a contract like Lou's would be overpaying him. I'm starting to think it won't be the Sixers who give him the contract, though, which is a good thing.

Possibly the best personnel moves the Sixers could make this summer would be to let Hawes and Young walk.

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Joe reply to Brian on Nov 12 at 14:48
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I agree with everything.

I still think this sample size is a bit small... one big night and the Sixers could probably swing right back to average.

We can look at trends, but we can't really derive anything from it, except that it is what has happened thusfar.

I think the 3 point defense is improved though.

I'm curios to see if the number of attempts are down, are teams taking less 3's because the soft doughy center of the sixers defense is just so inviting?

Attempts are down by about 1.8/game, but the Sixers are playing faster so that gap is actually bigger.

Just from watching I knew we were better at defending the 3, but had no idea we were second in the league.

Imagine if James Jones didn't go off on us that first game.. not that it really matters, but still

Thad's career seems to be at a cross roads right now. Collins always talks about taking weaknesses out of people's game. Here is where he makes his money. This blog has been talking about Thad's problems on defense for a while and it's good to see that Collins sees the same thing.

My prediction is that Thad will get "it" around Christmas time. Collins will get through to this kid. I believe in him as a teacher.

Thad's a tough call. They already missed the boat if they wanted to trade him for value (after his 2nd season.)

At this point I doubt he brings back much of anything in a trade (another struggling player or a future #2?) And its possible that they will be able to resign him for cheap after the next CBA. But if another team wants to throw big money at him based on age/potential then the Sixers should not match.

So it might be best case to hope he re-signs as a RFA to a reasonable deal and then maybe blossoms into a top bench player in 2 years when he enters his prime (age 25-30.)

By #2 I mean 2nd rounder.

And if they do wait to see where his market is as a RFA then it could mean they get nothing.

My guess is that Iguodala gets traded (because he has value) and the team gives Thad 2-3 months to show what he's got.

Cool rankings on B-R.com in case anyone wants to see.

I think this is more indicative of the Sixers play thusfar than their record.

Here's a fun comp we haven't run in a while.

link

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 12 at 11:46
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Why, their numbers are surprisingly close. Must be because of that great game Ty had last night (17 pts, 5 assists, 10 shots, 1 turnover, +16, - 10 with him out). By the way, remember when you used to scoff at comparisons of Wilson Chandler to Thad because Thad was just so much better?

I don't remember that, no. Probably did happen, though.

Chandler's overrated, who right now is playing over his head IMO. If he reverts back to his previous career norm (which I expect him to), I'm not exactly bowing down to Wilson Chandler.

The New York prospect hype machine seems as strong in basketball as it is in baseball, and yet they don't have the pedigree to back it up.

Of course you boy down to toney and landry right?:)

I like Toney Douglas quite a bit, actually.

Fields I thought was underrated at draft time, but now playing over his head and a bit overrated. If he keeps this level up I'd be very surprised.

Career averages:
Young: 12.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 49.7% from field, 34.4% from 3, 15.2 PER, 54.5% TS%, 0.094 WS/48, 28.8 mpg
Chandler: 13.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 45% from field, 30.7% from 3, 13.3 PER, 51.8% TS%, 0.055 WS/48

Per 36 minutes:
Young: 15.4 pts, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.8 turnovers
Chandler: 15.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 turnovers

Even with Chandler's "significantly better than career average" start to the season (which I said I expect to revert), his PER is higher (19 to 16.7), but not incredibly, and his WS/48 is lower (.102 to .124). Even so far this year, the Knicks have only been slightly better when he's been on the court -1.5 pts per 48 when on, -2.6 when off), whereas the Sixers have been significantly better while Thad's been on the court (+2.3 on, -3.9 off).

I always thought Chandler was just a tad overrated, and I don't think he's going to keep up playing at this level. I think this is a bit of "the grass is always greener".

I don't understand that Chandler hype. He's a 3-point gunner who can't shoot the three (he's worse than Thad). He's nothing special on defense. Yes he had a couple of nice game but that's about it. Everyone can have a solid game from time to time if given the minutes. On a true contender, i don't think Chandler is more than a 15min energy guy right now, nor he has potential to get better. Thad's pretty much the same right now, but he at least has some potential to get better...

As for Ty Lawson, he's a solid player, who is going to be a solid PG for the next decade in the NBA. But Nelson/Felton is the best you can expect him to be, and that was always the case. Holiday will be much much better.

Ty is still playing pretty well. His 3pt % will come up.

It's a pity about Thad, I didn't like the Sixers picking him because there was too much overlap with Iggy.

I wonder how many NBA careers have been crippled by poor Front Office decision making. I wonder how many the Sixers are responsible for.

Yes, picking thad young was crippling, look at all the super stars or even quality players drafted after Thaddeus Young (in the first round no less)

http://www.nba.com/draft2007/board.html

Really, they just could have done so much better by picking any of those players lower right?

The problem with Thad is the expectations after one and half seasons were WAY too high, he always had the same flaws, but no one paid attention to them and last year people just wrote everything off to 'eddie jordan sucks' (which repeatedly saying it doesn't make it so)

Thad can do one thing well and very little else, and it's been that dy since day one, however it's not like there are tons of much better contributors drafted after thad in the same draft.

Weak Drafts yield weak players, regardless of what position they are picked at.

I think he's saying that the Sixers (by yanking him back and forth from 3 to 4, changing coaches, and not allowing him to develop at the 3) crippled Thad. Not saying I agree or not (I agree to an extent, and don't think they maximized Thad, but don't think they crippled him either), just saying what I think he was trying to get across.

that's possible, however since he indicated in the first line that he felt the pick was a mistake, I could only think that his comment on the front office was in relation to his original comment regarding it being a bad pick.

Just going based on what he said trying to presume less what people are implying :)

Well, he did say how many careers had been crippled by NBA front offices, not how many teams have been crippled by players, so I don't think I'm presuming too much.

By all accounts Thad is smart and a hard worker. Unfortunately being smart does not necessarily translate into basketball smart (and vice versa.) People figured that it would in his case, but have been dissappinted so far.

Also, people assume you develop faster in the NBA. But that also is not always the case. Look how much Lou has improved from 22-24, even though at 22 he was already in his 4th NBA season. Thad is the same age as Turner, so I expect him to be a better player in 2-3 years. But even with improvement it looks like he's not headed to be a quality starter- but that remains to be seen.

The problem is his contract- which is a common issues when guys enter the NBA so young. How can you commit a serious money and years to a guy based on the hope he improves.

That's what the rookie scale is for. Back when guys entered at age 21+, by 24 or 25 you had a good sense of what they are worth. But guys like Lou and Thad are due for a payday at 22, and no one really knows what they will be.

I don't disagree, that's why I'd only take him on a steal contract.

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Dervin reply to GoSixers on Nov 12 at 13:06
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There's a huge difference between being a bad player and being a bad fit. Thad was a bad fit for the Sixers.

What has killed the Sixers since the departure of Brown/Croce is a lack of overall strategy and sticking to it. Letting Miller walk away, signing Brand, re-signing Iverson, Drafting Young, Iggy's contract and dozens more. Individually all of these events can be justified, but they failed to put a competitive team on the floor.

A strategy requires making painful short term choices for long term gain. Nobody cares about this team because we can all see the ceiling, 5th or 6th seed. First Round Exit. And this isn't just for this year, but the next couple of years.

Well, you lost a lot of credibillity when you said Iguodala's contract was a bad contract (it isn't)

When you're picking 12th and it's a weak draft you pick the best player available, he happened to be 19 years old and predicting fit is a fools game that fails more often than it succeeds (Evan Turner can't play off the ball - did you know that?)

It was a weak ass draft and the sixers took the best player they thought was available. It didn't pan out, as many draft picks outside the top 5 (even inside the top 5) are prone to do. It's not crippling. Who would you have picked instead, I showed you the list, who by this time is so much better than Thad that it was crippling to take Thad.

I'm just waiting for you to back up your assertion that picking Thad was 'crippling'

I think Dervin is right by basically saying individual choices might be justifiable, but were still bad in terms of lacking strategic vision. The Iguodala signing was part of this in that in the Summer of '08 they committed 200M+ to long term contracts without have a top level superstar in place (or any plan to get one.)

I'm not saying there was some better option staring them in the face- but they at least needed a plan. Like say re-signing Iguodala and trading for Camby, who had a big expiring contract 2 years away. Then plan to combine some young players + the expirings of Miller/Camby and cap space to be in the running for a star through a trade or FA.

I'm just throwing out a hypothetical that would have shown some strategic vision. While what they did either assumed Miller/Iguodala/Brand was enough to contend, or that they did not care about contending over the next 5 years.

I'm still waiting to hear the better pick than Thaddeus Young (no not al thornton) that would have prevented the crippling. His comment listed one specific move and that's what I replied for.

It's like when people say "We should of (sic) signed Josh Smith", it's an irrational argument to me and I want to know who he feels wouldn't have 'crippled' the organization at the time they picked Thaddeus Young.

Iguodala isn't signed to a bad contract

And Brand didn't work out but very few thought it was going to be a disaster when it was done.

Miller was a clusterfrack but that's comcast refusing to pay luxury tax, same reason Sam is no longer on the team. I can't hold the GM accountable for the fact that ownership won't spend money needed to sign contracts to build what they think is the best roster. They offered miller a one year deal...maybe the front office didn't know they were going to get screwed over by comcast and not be able to commit to miller long term...i haven't heard anything that indicates the GM knew otherwise.

Not trading Miller was a mistake
Not trading Iverson much sooner was a mistake

But every franchise makes mistakes, I don't think the sixers make an inordinate amount of mistakes and I think mentioning thaddeus young's pick and then talking about 'crippling front office moves' is ridiculous. Good or bad move it wasn't crippling.

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Dervin reply to GoSixers on Nov 12 at 14:12
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For this team, Iggy is a bad contract, for New Orleans, for Miami, it would be a great contract. It reduced the Front Office's options with trades and Free Agent signings. That's the point of having a strategy, that's the point of taking short losses for long term gains. That's why Iggy's contract was a mistake.

To say "Who should they draft?" is asking me to play Captain Hindsight. The question should be asked "If everything went perfect, how would Thad make this team better?" And the answer to that is the Sixers would have had to trade/release Iggy, BECAUSE THEY PLAY THE SAME ROLE!!!

If the Sixers drafted a pure shooter, a power forward, or PG. And we asked the same question "If everything goes perfect, how would it make the team better?" We would get the answer of "We'll have our starting PF, Shooting or Point guard."

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deepsixersuede reply to Dervin on Nov 12 at 18:55
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I still feel they drafted Thad to become the next Josh Smith; his father was a 6'11" N.B.A. player and they were a running team and they hoped Thad would grow into a high brid 4 that could run next to Iggy. Just my opinion but that is how I saw him being used.

Jrue vs Lawson is not even an argument anymore. That's why you never debate it here anymore. Here is a good look at Jrue vs some top current PG's in the league when they were 20 years old like Jrue is now:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=rondora01&y1=2007&p2=rosede01&y2=2009&p3=holidjr01&y3=2011&p4=willide01&y4=2006

Looking at the Deron v Jrue numbers sure gives a reason to smile. If only we could be sure Jrue continues along that progression. I'd have even more faith if he was coached by Sloane and had an All-Star level PF. But I guess Collins and Brand are not a horrible substitute.

Right on Target as usual Brian.


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