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It Only Counts As One Loss

Just saw this on Philly.com

Before the game, Collins said there was some concern that small forward Andre Iguodala again would be sidelined by right Achilles tendinitis, an injury that forced him to miss two games earlier in the week.
"We were concerned with Dre; his leg was a little bit sore after the game against Dallas, but he said he's OK," Collins said.

Sitting Iguodala down so early in the third makes a lot more sense if the achilles is hurting him that bad.

Smart move by Collins this game was obviously over anyway no need to over do it especially since hes just coming back from an injury.

The advanced boxscore from this game is really interesting. It shows that we didn't lose because of how we shot the ball, but because of where we took our shots. We got just 17 attempts at the basket; they got 29. We took 33 long twos; they took 14. They took 18 threes; we took 9. The percentages on the shots we took are about the same; the difference is that they made us take low-percentage shots.


That said I still like high-percentage long twos. About 48% long twos, there are only four teams in the league right now that shoot better than 48% from the field. 48% is a pretty high percentage shot. An offense that takes all long twos and no free throws or three-pointers would stink, yes. But not every possession will end at the line or in a three-pointer. So if you're going to attempt a shot inside the arc, a 48% one is pretty good. It's not like 10-15 footers are regularly converted at a higher rate than 48%, or like the 5-9 foot shots are regularly converted at a higher rate than 48%. League average for those shots is in the 39% range. Even shots taken at the basket are only made half of the time. Unless you think an offense can get to the line or shoot a three on every possession, 48% shots are great. Consider that teams average 20 long two attempts a game and make less than 40% of them. If you can be that accurate from mid-range, that's a big advantage over your opponent. For example, when you watch the Hornets one of the things that strikes you is the accuracy of their mid-range shooters. They run plays to get David West and Jason Smith open 18-foot jumpers, and they're making about half. Is that bad offense? If it was the outcome of every possession, it would be, but within the context of the whole game, those are shots that boost their offensive efficiency.

Good posts by Brian and Tray.

A few things regarding Jrue this year. On the positive side, he seems to show more signs that he can develop into a high end offensive weapon- both as a scorer and creator. But his man defense seems much worse. he still shows flashes of excellent defense, but he's been getting blown by pretty regularly. Especially the last few games.

Stefanski, of all people, raised the "point" that Jrue played PG only 1 year of his life- as a HS senior. Prior to that he was a scorer (and at UCLA.) That sure sounds "Thad-like" from our GM. But at least Jrue looks to have those PG instincts, even though they are rough around the edges. While thad still seems like a guy who thinks like a perimeter PF.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 14 at 9:51
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And do you think Jrue's increased responsibilities to carry/lead the offense are causing him to lose focus on defense? I'm not sure the intensity is there. Or maybe he's afraid of racking up fouls? Because the play he stayed in front of Parker he got whistled for a block, and he's been in foul trouble recently. Maybe he's having a hard time learning to play off a guy or picking his spots?

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eddies' heady's reply to tk76 on Nov 14 at 10:10
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Care to elaborate a little more on what you were referring when you stated that Ed sounded "Thad-like"?

I thought he meant Ed was implying that Jrue was "Thad Like" in his skill set

I meant that Stefanski drafted Thad as a SF "project" who had never really played that position much. And Stefanski descibes Jrue as a PG in the same terms- which I disagree. I think Jrue hjas PG instincts and he is not learning a new position as much as trying to improve at his natural position.

It bothers me that Stefanski thinks differently, since he is the GM and likely knows more about the players.

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eddies' heady's reply to tk76 on Nov 14 at 12:54
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Thanks, that's the way I took it too. Like he was saying that Jrue is just now transitioning to a new/unknown position which makes him a project pick like Thad. Ed never ceases to amaze me with his continual incompetence.

Thad was drafted by Billy King not Stefanski.

He did also play some point in AAU ball, IIRC.

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deepsixersuede on Nov 14 at 10:43
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Turnovers by a young p.g. I can except but defense is technique and effort and he knows how to so the effort part seems lacking.Collins may have to cut his minutes slightly and tell him to go all out, all the time.

This was a bump in the road, and they will bounce back. The Spurs look like the 2nd best team in the west.

They're 2-8 - what exactly do they have to bounce back to.

They aren't a very good team. Collins is trying to 'win' games with what he has which may interfere with player development, and Collins like other sixers coaches keeps falling for the same misconceptions

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Rob_STC reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 12:08
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Misconceptions ? The coach's job is to try to win games whether it is the first or last of the season. I can tell you from a Season Ticket Holder's standpoint we don't spend the money saying "I don't care if they win just as long as they develop. " I go to a game hoping they win every time. At some point they could get high draft picks evey year like Minnesota and still not win. So the mentality last year to "tank" how has that done so fat to change the 2-8 record ? I do understand from an outside who has nothing invested why they might have this mentality, I really do. If I choose not to review frankly I wouldn't care as much. But like COllins eluded to the other day there is a point where it is not ok to keep making the same mistakes and keep losing.

I said nothing about tanking
I said nothing about what I was talking about when I said misconceptions...I'll give you a hint though, there's a guy on the roster who isn't a point guard but for years they keep trying to use him as one.

If you renewed your season tickets and expected not to be seeing one of the worst teams in the NBA for your 41 games, then I believe you had misconceptions about the team and unrealistic expectations. Even with Elton Brand on the roster, the sixers have one of the youngest rosters in the NBA.

The misconceptions that Doug Collins was the cure all were the original problem.

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 12:31
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This was their first awful game and effort, that is what they need to "bounce back" from. Collins wants effort and last night he didn't get it. He is trying to change things back to prior to the E.Jordan level at least, than add talent.

Again, the team isn't the same team 'pre jordan' - most importantly they lack a defensive inside presence, and the 'offensive center' they obtained is actually probably worse than sam.

They are a bad team, they have the worst record in the east and the second worst record (tied) in the NBA after 10 games.

Playoff expectations were never realistic to begin with. It demonstrated a delusion that everything was on the coach, when it wasn't - some things were and some things weren't.

These constant insights into Collins thinking have no basis in fact or knowledge and they're speculative BS

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 12:44
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He talks about effort all the time, what is wrong with assuming he means it. Watching his handling of Spieghts reenforces that assumption.

Because he also talks about defensive effort equating playing time and yet keeps Lou Williams on the floor when his defensive effort is the equivalent of a first graders attempt to prove 2+2=4 (it's much harder than you think)

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Tom Moore on Nov 14 at 11:24
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Starting Turner makes sense:

http://ow.ly/39w57

Mark Stein in his weekend time was talking trade potential players and dropped this paragraph after mentioning the variety of rumored names out there

It's conceivable that some of those stars might wind up being shopped before the last Thursday in February, likely starting with Iguodala. But it hasn't happened yet.

Supposedly Iguodala hasn't asked to be traded, supposedly the sixers aren't looking for a deal but will take one if vastly 'wowed' by one, so why does ESPN keep implying that he's most likely to be moved by February? What is it they know (and won't share) that Iguodala and the sixers don't seem to know?

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 12:37
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It seems that every time Iggy says he wants to win, they run with it and assume he means elsewhere. John, if you were coaching this group, what would you do differently to develop the players? He sits guys that aren't listening and seems lately to be jumping on them when they screw up in huddles and rewards effort.

Again, that's your perception.

My perception is that he's less forgiving of some players than others.

He keeps playing Spencer Hawes for reasons passing any understanding

he continues to run with the same misconception numerous other coaches have had in the past

Nocioni on the court is a waste of time, he's not here for the future, he is here to avoid paying the luxury tax this season (and if the CBA doesn't change, I wouldn't be surprised to see another similarly stupid trade to avoid the luxury tax next year)

The problems with the sixers are systemic and deeper than just the players.

The cowboys won't win a superbowl without a new owner
neither will the redskins
Kansas city won't contend consistently without a new owners, neither will the pittsburgh pirates
The clippers will never contend until Donald Sterling dies (cause he ain't selling that team)
And until the sixers have new ownership, the franchise is screwed unless they get super lottery lucky.

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ELF reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 12:58
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I agree with you in terms..
Like, the sixers need a more personable kind of owner, like Cuban or Leonsis, someone the fans can relate and see he is trying to put the best team possible..
In Hawes subest I disagree, he s playing better now, kind of getting in gameshape, so that s the cause Collins is letting him in.. to gel with other players too, also if the sixers are gonna make a move (Iggy)or second move for a big, I think Hawes along with Lou, Thad or Speihgts will be included.

Hawes is awful, pure and simple, agree or disagree the numbers don't support his minutes.

As for the owner, I couldn't GIVE a shit if he's 'personable' - the steinbrenners aren't personable - do you even know the name of the guys who own the red sox, the celtics, the spurs.

I don't care about personable, I care about an owner whose primary concern is WINNING who answers only to himself, not stock owners and not a P/L statement. You should not own a franchise if your primary concern is not winning a title in your league

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deepsixersuede on Nov 14 at 12:54
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Hawes gets minutes because, in my opinion, because he doesn't have other options right now. He has stated he doesn't like playing small and Battie will break down with too many minutes. I truly believe once Spieghts gets it, and continues to give his recent effort he will take minutes from Hawes.

Nucioni, as Brian stated in his recap, seems to always give effort, and his taking Thad and Evan's minutes, hopefully, again in my opinion, helps them learn to go hard every second out there.

Then play Battie until he breaks down...what's he waiting for.

Battie is the best option on the roster to be the starting center...he's the only option with a clue about defense and this belief that Speights is going to 'get it' at some point is nuts (besides, speights best performances this year involve playing PF with Battie at center)

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 13:03
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in the past week Hawes and Batties' play has gotten closer to the same level, in my opinion. You said earlier its not about winning; Hawes is young and they might as well look at him. When he disappoints, it is more a quickness thing than effort so that could be why he gets slack from the coach. He also seems to allow the offense to run better with J.I.T. on the court, and that may be why he starts the games.

Hawes was crap before they obtained him
Playing him interferes with the development of the players who matter as much as starting Nocioni does.

Battie is a veteran center who won't get in the way offensively but provides a defensive presence down low (more than spawes can, but not as much as sam did) thus allowing the important pieces to learn to play together better than having hawes on the floor (all in my opinion of course)

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 13:14
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I think the 2 youngest guys on the roster, Jrue and Hawes, should be out there through good and bad. Unless they don't give effort. But in both their cases, other options are slim.

It's only 10 games, and Speights doesn't always player center, but:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=4LBqQ

Seems to me like Hawes and Speights both suck this year and Battie is player better than both of em and they should stretch his minutes out.

I really don't care about their age...Hawes has been in the league long enough - and he sucks - it's simple - all summer people talked about how great it was that sam was gone and hawes was here and some folk said no - hawes sucks - and those sam haters said 'wait and see' - so what have wee seen in 10 games that indicate hawes doesn't suck - that hawes isn't a bust - that hawes shouldn't play?

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 13:23
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Here is a larger sample size to look at... link

Yes, that's great, but that's apples and oranges and peanuts, different rosters, different coaches.

All I care about right now is this year, and Battie is the best performing center on THIS roster with THIS coach.

(Though Battie was better than both em last year too)

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 13:37
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Those numbers from Battie are from 2 years ago. Last year, in a small sample size of minutes (hmm, small samples) he was just pathetic.

And I think Speights was on par or better than Battie according to the numbers in my link.

I don't really care who plays. I'd like to see Collins take a serious interest in Speights this year, though, to see if he can get him to shoot less while out there as well as rebound a little more.

By season's end, I see Battie's 20 footers wearing out their welcome around here.

I really don't care about his offense, I care about their defense

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:04
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To me, it has always seemed odd to ignore production on one side of the floor.

And a quick glance at bb-ref.com says the Sixers are 16th in DRtg and 24th in ORtg. I don't know which measurement is typically the best to measure D and O, but that is the most easily accessible.

And yet, the only comment you had about Batties play was about his 20 footers, no comment on the fact that he's better than spawes defensively

The 'knock' on Sam was that he sucked offensively (though he was better than Hawes). He was great defensively but no one seemed to care

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:19
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Did I say defense didn't matter? You clearly said offense didn't, which I said was 'odd' and I still think it is odd.

I made a comment about Battie's offense because it is relevant to his production.

And even with his '20 footers' that you so dislike he's outperforming (overall) speights and hawes

combined even

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:49
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If you look at larger sample sizes that isn't the case in my opinion.

In the link you provided (yourself) for whatever season you chose to find relevant, Battie out played Speights and Hawes individually - And both Speights and Battie bitchslapped hawes in terms of overall production.

Hawes sucks, he has always sucked, and he shouldn't get more than 10 minutes a game until he stops sucking

The one thing I'm worried about is Jrue's defense. Simply put, he got burnt by Parker all last night and the night before he didn't handle Barea in the 2nd Half. It looks like short, quick guys are the ones giving him trouble. He looks like he's a little tired when he guards them, not really getting in a stance and playing the lock down defense we know he has.

The thing that will get him close to the 'Top 5' discussion is that he wins personal battles with superior defense, even if his numbers are a little lower than most guys. He has to be thinking, "The offense may fluctuate, but the defensive effort has to be there every night."

I'm really not that worried that a fully rested Tony Parker was able to beat a physically tired Jrue Holiday

If both teams had played the night before AND both teams had traveled to San Antonio then it would be a bigger concern to me.

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:37
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It's not that black-and-white. Jrue has not played good defense in three straight games. Westbrook, Barea, and Parker have all beat him badly. That's concerning when the kid's defense is something we expect every night.

It's easy to make excuses when Jrue is a 20 year old kid. Still, can't have it both ways when people pull out the "He's just a kid, he's going to make mistakes" card (which is fine) and then hold him to the same physical standards as EB on back-to-back games. He got beat bad, and I just hope Collins is holding his defense accountable.

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deepsixersuede reply to Rich on Nov 14 at 15:02
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Does it fall into the category of " asked to do more offensively" so his effort slips defensively like it was said about Iggy when A.I. left? Maturity seems the only answer to that and learning to balance both ends of the floor which Iggy seems to have learned the last 2 years.


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johnrosz on Nov 14 at 13:58
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I kind of want to see Iggy sit out until he's fully healthy. Extremely small sample size, but they don't appear to play any worse with him out of the lineup, at least with the way he's playing right now. Holiday and Turner were able to replace his production reasonably well.

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Joe reply to johnrosz on Nov 14 at 14:11
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I think Iguodala would be missed greatly.

Turner and Holiday aren't replacing him either.

I think the argument you are making is a really poor one when you look at real sample sizes, such as every other year of Andre Iguodala's career.

Personally

What I think is that the sixers need to know as soon as possible whether the presumption that JTI doesn't work is true or not.

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johnrosz reply to Joe on Nov 14 at 14:17
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Well, that doesn't make sense. You can't use a larger sample size of Iguodala's entire career to counter my argument because it's entirely centered around Turner and Jrue together.

The argument goes like this - Andre Iguodala has contributed X year in and year out and it's doubtful that Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner can combine to contribute their own numbers + X because of the high level at Iguodala contributes.

It's a valid hypothesis that can not be proven or disproven yet - much like your hypothesis that they can 'cover' for Iguodala is unproveable yet. But since he performs at a level game in and game out (most seasons, unlike mr portland now i have arthritis) of a top 30 player in the league, it's unlikely that Holiday and Turner can elevate their games to a sufficiently good level that a top 30 player isn't missed

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:26
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Yes but then you have to wonder, if you can trade Iguodala to bring in some production in the front court, mainly rebounding and interior defense obviously, don't you have to consider it?

Is it possible that Jrue/Turner/young PF or C brings more of a collective balance to the lineup than Jrue/Turner/Iggy

That depends on who the trade is (again unlikely because of the 'tall for small' issue)

Andre Iguodalas name pops up a lot in rumors of where he'd fit, Portland has been mentioned as a fit and so has New Orleans.

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Joe reply to johnrosz on Nov 14 at 14:22
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Iguodala has played under how many head coaches? With how many players? In how many different roles?

But this coach and these players and this role is going to be what renders Iguodala useless?

I'm sorry. I don't buy the argument as being valid right now.

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johnrosz reply to Joe on Nov 14 at 14:30
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He's a really good player. I think he's a winning player, a guy that can thrive in a different situation. What's the point of having a player of his caliber in a situation like this?

Because he's no where close to the end of his career?

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:34
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By the time this roster is ready to be significant he will be close to 30. That's assuming they don't mess things up worse, and that both Jrue and Turner pan out.

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Joe reply to johnrosz on Nov 14 at 15:18
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I think you are overthinking things personally.

Would you trade Deron Williams if you were a bad team just because he is 26, etc.? Or Brandan Roy?

I wouldn't. I'd hold onto them as long as I possibly can. I feel the same way about Iguodala. If I'm the Sixers, I'm not letting him go unless I'm blown away.

Actually, I'd trade Brandon Roy right now, assuming I was the only one who knew about his arthritic knee, lack of knee cartilege, and likelihood to continue to miss games due to that bad knee.


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deepsixersuede reply to Joe on Nov 14 at 14:34
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I want to say this the right way; Does having Iggy play less of a role offensively combined with a new C.B.A. make his contract worse in managements eyes because we are not ready to win yet? And is that right or wrong?

It's impossible to answer that without an inkling of what the new CBA is.

If the owners get what they want - there will be a reduction across the board of all contracts by X%, so Iguodala's 'gross money' will go down and he'll still take up the same percentage of cap room. (For example)

If the players get what they want, nothing changes, so his contract is still his contract.

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 14:42
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With all the talk of profits being made, what is your best guess now?

I think it's all bull shit right now, it's spin and crap and misleads and falsehoods and creative accounting.

My best guess now
No 2011/2012 season - at all
Players cave, cause the NBA union is as strong as tissue paper and fights the wrong fights (like marijuana testing)
The owners get what they wanted, but maybe not as high as percentage.

Owners want 51% BRI, Players want 61%, call it 56%
Owners want 13% reduction, probably get 7-8%
One exception gets canned, probably not both
maybe the luxury tax level gets lowered
(but no way is there a hard cap)
And hope of hopes - one 'get out of jail free card' - pay a guy off his entire contract value one time and it never applies to your cap again.

Excellent posting Brian. I basically expected last night with SA having rest for 3 days and us just coming off 2 tough losses.

As stated before, lets give it till mid season before we get too negative. I believe Hawes is doing better and who knows, maybe he will turn out to be average and a good backup for us.

-11
-7
-17
9
-5
-16
-13
-13

Hawes +/- in the first 8 games...he's got a long way to go before he's average in my mind

Again, why are people ignoring that Hawes has sucked for his entire career...unrealistic expectations with very little historical evidence to back it up

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 15:58
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Jason Smith sucked for his whole career and now all of a sudden he doesn't. But yeah, I see no reason to think that will happen with Hawes, who looks terrible even when he does something right. His game is clunky and athletically he's really limited. By the way, do you want to revise your claim that Monta is no better than Willie Green and that people who think so are idiots/think so just because he scores more? Monta's shooting over 51% from the field right now, and averaging 26.5 a game.

Monta is playing above his head right now, but like everything else, it's early. He ain't going to shoot 51% for the season.

Maybe he's matured, we'll see.

I'm not ready to say I was wrong on him (or on him and curry working together) just yet...it's still early :)

So far it seems I'm wrong.

I think Jason Smith is healthy this year (by the way) and wasn't fully healthy last year

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deepsixersuede reply to Tray on Nov 14 at 16:34
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I thought his rookie year Smith played a nice role as an energy guy who blocked an occasional shot also. The team seemed to play well with him out there. John is right, last year should be discounted because of his injury. He seems to have as good a skill set as Brackins, which is what should of been looked at before the trade was made. And he is more suited for the 5 spot, in limited minutes.

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Rob_STC reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 16:51
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I suppose their management are "morons" and we are the so called experts.

No one said morons until you did.

Do you have anything constructive that says Spencer Hawes doesn't suck?

I think the sixers made a trade to get under the luxury tax and conned gullible fans into thinking it was to 'get Hawes'

Huh, I believe I stated give it time on Hawes, not Rob. And, btw, I did not say Hawes will be good but give it time.

You must have an exciting life with all the time you spend on the blogs.

So what does it say about your life that you can bother to notice such a thing

Your opinions about which you know nothing about have as much relevance as Sarah Palins opinion on anything, and matter less to me

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 18:18
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I'd say there's about a 10% chance that Palin's opinions will one day matter a lot to you and everyone else who lives on this planet. Unfortunately.

After Early November I've already explored Canadian Real Estate Options for the coming 201 apocalypse.

Not that it matters, but I'm actually working on something for Brian and had hoped to get it up today though game 10 - but I guess it'll have to be through game 8 now :)

People don't know who Tim Duncan is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGGPE-Cc_lc

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deepsixersuede reply to Tray on Nov 14 at 16:37
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Were you referring to the jeopardy staff? He isn't really a center. :)

His game is more center-ish than Yao's or Ilgauskas's, right? But yeah, I guess he's a power forward. It would be funny if any of the contestants actually failed to get the answer right for that reason.

Busy day in my absence. I'll have a post up later tonight taking a look at the first ten games from a couple of different angles. Is it wrong that I wasn't upset the Cowboys won a game today?

Nah, it's better for the Eagles (hopefully it was just the one game push from Garrett) that the Giants lost.

Course, watching the Badgers put up 86 was just fun (Bucky did about 500 pushups :) )

DeMarcus Cousins Update: 10 assists, 22 turnovers for the big man. But at least he's cut his foul rate down to 7.6 per 36 minutes.

Sam became the starting center a couple days ago

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 14 at 20:22
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You must not have seen the Marc Stein bit on his bad behavior. Although apparently, reports of said bad behavior have led many teams to inquire as to his availability.

I read it. Stein blamed it all on Tyreke, and Westphal's handling of Tyreke. I guess Tyreke was the problem when Cousins was in high school and also when he was at Kentucky.

The best part is that the Kings hired his high school coach on to try and keep him under control

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 14 at 22:11
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No, that was Amick who blamed it on Tyreke. Stein was down on Cousins.

I know we want a younger big- but I'm not sure one is available. So what about this as a basis for a deal?

GS:
protected #1 (top 6 2011, top 3 2012 then unprotected)
Biedrins (9M/9M/9M/9M-option)
V.Rad (7M exp)

Sixers:
Iguodala
Hawes

For Sixers: Solid big and a future lottery pick and some gradually expanding cap room.

For GSW: The perfect complement to their PG/SG and they have Udoh and David Lee as their long term front-court.

I would not consider this trade without the pick.

The bottom of the west isn't as great as people thought - that pick could be a end of lottery / 15/16 pick in the 2011 draft.

How recovered is Biedrins this year?

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 22:16
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Well, some days he looks really recovered. Actually, he looks recovered every game. But he doesn't always produce as if he'd recovered. It's very game to game with him. I've liked Biedrins a lot ever since he became a good player, and there are games where he has tight footwork, deft touch, rebounds tons of shots, looks like a really able shot-blocker - but there are also all these games where he does little to nothing.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Nov 14 at 22:43
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Good point about the pick. If that's not looking tpo be top 8 then its probably not such a hot trade. But still probably realistic.

As for Biedrins- he's still young and his contract is not terrible when he is playing. But I can't say much about his short or long term health prospects.

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Joe reply to tk76 on Nov 15 at 7:58
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I like Golden State.

I'm not sure this trade improves them too much, but I also don't see it hurting them. I do think it thins them in the front court a bit.

I'm having a hard time knocking this one. If I see rumors about GS-Philly I'd step in a little more. I think it is an interesting idea.

Nice article Brian. It is amazing after a blowout defeat
all over the place to see people bailing, thinking we are heading to 9-73. Our last 3 losses were to three teams that all have a genuine chance to be in the Western Conference Finals, and possibly further.


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