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Melo's Third Wheel - Orlando Edition

There was some interesting stuff from Stein floating around about Melo the last week or so.

There were a few premises floating out there

A. There are teams that would trade for Melo without the extension in the hope that 'he loves it there' and re-signs (Houston, Dallas, etc...)

B. The new jersey deal was still the most likely BUT Denver wanted to put off the trade as much as possible so that Melo didn't help New Jersey win too many games. Favors would still be in the deal but only if Melo signed an extension.

C. I saw the Melo to Orlando stuff yesterday and went 'meh' - I mean if they give up jameer nelson for melo - does that help them win a title?

Yeah, I think Melo puts them a lot closer than Jameer does. They need a true PG down there to get more out of Dwight. Jameer holds him back, imo.

Its a bit of a challenge to project Gortat as a 36 min starter. Here are his stats:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html

He's playing on a much better team than the Sixers, although he's never on the floor with their superstar (Howard.) His per 36 stats over the last 1+ seasosn are solid: 10pts, 11reb, 2 blk. His Wins Shares per 48 is solid.

His reb% is good (24%/18.5%), his TO rate is low. His FG% is good but he does not draw fouls.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 12:22
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And more data: http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Marcin%20Gortat

Of his 2.8 FGA:
1.7 are at the rim and 0.7 inside 10 feet.

So 85% of hs shots are taken within 10 feet... which can be interpreted in a few ways depending on whether you think he has a post game.

Yeah, I don't think he'd really be an offensive weapon in the "dump the ball to him in the post" sense, but I do believe he'd be excellent in the P&R and diving to the hoop for easy looks. I think that would translate into more scoring than he does in Orlando, where they lack playmakers on the outside to set him (or Dwight) up for easy looks.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 12:25
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And outside of 10 feet his FG% is 26% (10-15ft) and 20% (16-23 ft.)

So although we hate jump shooting bigs... he can't shoot a lick. And at nearly 27 he is unlikely to add much to that phase. Granted, those numbers (from last year) are based on a limited number of attempts.

The number of attempts is a positive for me, regardless of the percentages. I'm sick of bigs shooting long twos.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 12:29
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At least he is not wasting possessions.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 12:27
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So basically, a slightly worse "Sam" but plays more efficiently. Probably the best comparison would be Biedrins- do you agree?

BTW, what is your opinion on his defensive ability? Maybe we need a synergy look to better grade him in that regard.

The only question I have about his defense is whether he can stay on the floor when he's relied on for heavy minutes. As a backup, his foul totals really don't mean anything, he can be super aggressive for his short stretches. Not sure if he'd be able to play with 3 fouls in the third quarter and make sure not to pick up the fourth, but remain effective.

Offensively, I think he's an upgrade over Sam in that he won't give you the negative plays.

Here's a question:

Is Holiday, Turner, Thad, Brand, Gortat bad enough to guarantee a bottom-five record?

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 12:28
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No. Holiday would take over and put up Iguodala like numbers. And Turner will be dramatically better the 2nd half of the year.

Also Gortat/Brand is a big upgrade from Hawes/Brand. Although Gortat is less ball friendly, so he might clog things up a bit ;)

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 12:33
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Quick math...

Lose 85% of your games against good teams. Lose 55% of games against bad teams. Assume the schedule is 50:50 weighted good vs bad (about right.)

This gets you: 6 + 18 = 24 Wins and a top 5 pick.

Bottom five record, not necessarily a top five pick.

Yup :)

Does this assumes the Sixers aren't already guaranteed a bottom 5 record as is?

I tend to (realistically) want cap space and 1st round picks for Iguodala.

I find it hard figure a deal that nets the Sixers a good enough current (young) player that would make you feel feel good about the trade.

Gortat and cap space is okay.

I'd like the Sixers to attempt to build via the draft first and free agency/trades as complimentary moves.

Stockpile picks you can use to move up and around in the draft, get cheap production and like everyone else hope you get what I like to call lucky-lucky-lucky.

- Lucky to win the lottery or at least land a top 3 pick
- Lucky that there are 2 (or more) potential great players in that draft
- Lucky that the player you draft actually becomes elite

Not easy to get out of the doldrums of mediocrity in the NBA.

Brian what exactly would be your ideal package AND minimum acceptable package in an Iguodala deal?

In order of importance:

1) Young player on rookie deal with a better than average shot at being a viable building block (ideally, somewhere around Jrue's level)
2) Cap flexibility
3) Picks.

I don't think the picks are really a viable option. No team that figures to be heavily involved in the lottery is going to look to take on Iguodala's contract. We're mostly talking about teams that are already contending, or on the cusp of contending, so their draft picks aren't really good assets. Just guaranteed contracts late in the first round.

I realize I'm not going to be happy w/ the return on an AI9 trade, nothing is going to meet my expectations. I guess I won't be as sick to my stomach if they can land a young legit starter and expiring deals.

Ideally, I'd say Favors + Cap Space + Some kind of pick

Realistically, maybe something like Gallinari + cap space. I wouldn't want to slit my throat if they made that deal. Another piece and cap flexibility.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 16:04
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Add to that:

Bringing in a player we won't hate. So no Hawes or other soft bigs.

Would Galinari be a tough guy to root for?

I wouldn't have a problem rooting for him. I actually think he'd be a nice fit on the outside with either JT or JI, and he'd probably do much better playing alongside those guys than he's doing in NYC. I think he's under-rated by most, to be honest. Not as soft as you think he contributes a little bit across the board.

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noah reply to Brian on Nov 30 at 3:17
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Brian-
As far as acquiring top picks in the draft, there are some possibilities. For example, if Houston wanted to trade for Iggy, they could offer New York's first round pick for either of the next two drafts. Oklahoma City could offer the Clippers' 2012 first round pick. If the Sixers became the third team in a deal with a team like the Clippers or Nets, those teams could bring Minnesota's 2011 first round pick (unprotected in 2012) and Golden State's 2012 first round pick respectively.
The main problem is that traded picks are almost always protected. Another wrinkle is that with upcoming expiration of the CBA, I have heard some draft-prognosticators predict that a lot of top college freshman will avoid this year's draft and stay in college an extra year. Targeting 2012 draft picks might be a smarter investment.

If I'm Philly and Orlando, I make the deal. Not sure Denver makes the deal.

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sfw reply to sfw on Nov 29 at 12:29
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In the last 5 games he's avg'd 9.4 minutes. Not enough. They could certainly get away with a Battie type player(Unfortunately, Battie's back issues affect how he is used.).

16 pts on 7 shots, 8 rebs, 3 blks, 0 turns, in 23 minutes?? Serge Ibaka! THIS is the kind of guy the Sixers should be drafting. I know I have a hoops crush on him, I can't help it. The Sixers have got to try to find the next Camby!
Oh and yeah I wouldn't be upset at all if they traded TeamLou and his tired act for a couple pairs of basketball shorts. And any deal that dumps Brand for shorter contracts is fine with me! :)

I would want Brandon Bass coming with Gortat and not JR smith and i'd do it. I am a big fan of getting bigs back for Iguodala and not a wing player, I think wing players are much easier to find in the draft/free agency/trades.

Bass does nothing for me and he's got an extra year on his deal. JR Smith is expiring, I wouldn't really care if they bought him out of the remainder of this season.

JR smith is not obtained for his play he is obtained for his expiring contract

Bass and Gortat are two bench players (redundant?) who take up most of the cap space Iguodala fills so it does nothing really to help the sixers but give them more guys who shouldn't start in the NBA

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 12:51
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I got a little carried away haha. Bass's contract has 2 years after this one as well so i'd much rather have JR's expiring. Would not do this deal, don't think there is any deal that could be worked out here.

There's no deal where the sixers are going to get FMV for Iguodala, you just have to make the best deal possible and move on from there.

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 13:01
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I entirely agree with you on that. I just don't think that Gortat is right. He is 26 going on 27, by the time that ET/Jrue are in their primes he'll be 33-34 so i don't think he's a long term fit (I understand that iggy is same age, but Iggy is a lot more talented and can help help the sixers win earlier, where as gortat will be entirely dependent on Jrue/ET development). If Iggy isn't a fit at 26 for this team why would we trade him for a less talented player that is the same age that has no upside? If Gortat was 22 it'd be a different story.

Jrue and Turner probably aren't 6 or 7 years away from their prime. There was actually a study done last year that hoops players typically hit their prime at about 24, which is scary if you think about it.

Gortat is more of a short-medium term fit, though. I agree w/ that.

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Jason reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 13:34
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Would you not want Daniel orton if a trade like this would go down?

I guess. I mean, he's a project 7-footer on a rookie deal, so why not. I'm just not that enthused by him.

By the way, did anyone else have the Nets broadcast of the Sixers/Nets game on Saturday? Fratello on the Dalembert/Hawes trade was pretty mind-boggling.

Yeah I heard them, also during the Denver game they were going on and on about how the Nets were still in play to land Melo and would do whatever it took to get that "superstar". Something about that doesn't seem quite right. All though I will say Humphries has played surprisingly well for them.

Seems right to me, they (over) value Melo as a superstar over favors upside. They'll trade for Melo is they can get him to sign the extension. If not, they won't.

OK, here's a question. Similar deals are on the table, one gets you Gallinari and expiring contracts, the other gets you Gortat and expiring contracts. Which would you prefer?

Gallinari is only 22 and contrary to his limitations on his own upside I think they're 'better' than Gortats, though he'll never play defense.

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Jason reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 12:52
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As much as i really want to get a big back for iguodala i'd go Gallinari over Gortat. Gortat's just too old.

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Joe reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 16:19
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I prefer Gallo due to the age thing. He seems like a decent starter right now.

I prefer Iguodala to both, though that wasn't part of the question.

Agreed on all accounts. This is sort of, if it has to happen, which is the better option.

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 12:48
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Column: Would Iguodala like to get out of Philly?:

http://ow.ly/3gYmB

From Tom's article

"You only trade people if it makes sense," he said.

Hey if you're the sixers, you don't even do that sometimes

Tom,

What's your gut feeling on Iguodala? Do you think he's nearing the point where Barkley was prior to his trade. It's just not going to happen here?

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Tom Moore reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 13:37
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Good chance he is gone by Feb

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

the sixers completely revamp their front court and save a lot of money in the process. probably as good as it gets for denver it terms of multiple pieces. and orlando gets what they want. just throwing it out there.

That's not the link to the trade

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go team reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 16:08
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http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2f88mj9

thats right its not. the suspense of my fake trade is killing everyone.

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tk76 reply to go team on Nov 29 at 16:12
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1. Orlando needs a back-up C and PF.

2. How does that even work? The Sixers trade away 19M and only take back 12M.

Probabl complicated in that it's not one trade but multiple trades that make it work :)

Each trade has to be within 25% :)

Man, that's a lot of money invested in Gortat and Anderson, and they're both signed for 4 years. The savings aren't enough for me.

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 13:29
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Brackins going down to D-League.

For Brian:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=QaBYS

Gortat v. Andrew Lang (the year before the Barkley trade.)

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dwhite reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 14:05
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Interesting. I just don't know about Gortat - he puts up solid numbers in a very limited role that allows him to eat up boards against lesser opposing talent. It's a huge gamble to say his game will translate as a starter where he'll be squaring off against the more dominant centers in the league (I wonder how good he looks against Howard in practice). And the few Orlando games I've seen, he looks even clumsier than Dalembert on offense...just not the athlete Sam was. Seems like too little to give up Iguodala for as nice as it would be to have another able bodied center on the roster who could board.

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sfw reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 14:15
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tk, thanks! Time to pop an upper. Back to a depressed state again.

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dwhite reply to sfw on Nov 29 at 14:30
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This may draw some ire and I don't know much about Martin but Houston is reportedly one of the teams very interested in Iguodala...

Martin for Iggy.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2wo6bmc

Martins arguably having a career year, but Houston has the able Courtney Lee and the high upside Jermaine Taylor to fill in the gap at SG.

Turner could move to the three where he is undersized right nonw, but could fill more of the Iguodala type role of distributor and ball handler that he was so effective in for the games Iguodala was out for. So we get a legit shooting guard and Turner in a role he's perhaps more suited for.

Of course a straight up swap of similarly paid players doesn't help the financial side of things, and I don't know a whole lot about Martin (good size, bad D?) but its just an idea I'm curious to hear what you guys think about (cause you're all much smarter than me at this kind of thing).

Martin has always been a very efficient scorer when he's been healthy, but that's the rub. He rarely stays healthy. He definitely doesn't play any defense, but that wouldn't be a dealbreaker if you could feel confident about penciling him for 20 efficient points per game for 75 games/year, but you just can't. For that price, I don't want an injury plagued perimeter player whose game is really predicated on taking contact and getting to the line.

This actually isn't even his best season, he had a couple of stellar scoring seasons in Sacto, he's also older than Iguodala.

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dwhite reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 14:41
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Yea I took a look at his games played after posting...injuries are a big concern and he's more prone to get hurt the older he gets. Might be a situation where we continue to lose enough games to stockpile some decent bigs in the draft and allow for Turner to comfortably develop in a quicker manner so when Brand and Martin's expirings come off the books we'd be in a much better position to get some complimentary pieces to fill out a winner, assuming we view Jrue/Turner as our essential pieces for the future.

I really don't think Turner at the three is a long-term answer. Too many athletic freaks play the three in this league, and I don't think he's ever going to be able to produce big numbers with an elite athlete on him.

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sfw reply to dwhite on Nov 29 at 14:45
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Battier or Jeffries(expiring) plus young big(patterson or J hill) plus Budinger. Might be an option. Martin seems to soft to me and as noted doesn't help the cap.

Yeah, I don't see anything working with Houston unless we get a couple of #1s in return as well. Budinger is back to being the passive guy he was at AZ, I don't think Hill or Patterson will ever amount to anything of note. We'd be trading Iguodala away for an extremely long shot at a borderline starting big and a cap space. They can do better than that.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 15:39
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More Lang/Perry/Hornecek... but without the Hornecek :)

Yep. It's funny, the Barkley trade gutted a playoff team for crap, and the Iverson trade improved a lottery team to the point where they fell out of the top ten in a couple of decent drafts. I love this franchise.

Here's a fun comp to chew on:

second-year PGs

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dwhite reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 14:52
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For my money, I'll take Holiday. Evans has taken several steps back for the mess that is the Kings and how much of a PG has he proven himself to be yet? Jennings is too much of a gunner whose shot has not improved (though he gets to the line) and Ty Lawson isn't in a situation where he can be properly evaluated yet backing up Billups, but I still think he'll be a few notches below Holiday on the PG ladder when he does get the reins.

uhh.. does anyone know if there is actually a team that would give us a young big man in return for Andre? It doesn't seem like a team will do that. They will hold onto them if they are cheap. Then the sixers can only get an expiring, it doesn't make any sense to trade Iguodala. A deal with Houston is the best of the bad deals because we could get a probable lottery pick from them and then take 2 shots in the draft lottery next year.

If they get Iguodala early enough, there's a decent chance it won't be a lottery pick. And even the Knicks pick is looking like it'll probably be in the mid-to-late teens.

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johnrosz on Nov 29 at 15:19
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Anyone see this fan video?

I think I like it better than the Cleveland response one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEVCjUG1Mww

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 15:55
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Video: Thaddeus Young on how being aggressive is paying for him and Sixers:

http://ow.ly/3h60i

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 16:07
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Video: Craig Brackins on being sent down to the D-League:

http://ow.ly/3h6rE

What would the Rockets do with Iguodala, exactly? Start him over Battier? I see that they're a really weak defensive team, but Battier's not the problem.

Assuming he gets trade for Martin (who has been on the market reportedly since the rockets obtained him) they'd start him with Brooks in the back court.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 16:41
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I thought the whole goal of dealing Iguodala was to get young talent/picks/expirings this time. Not to trade for a worse player at his position, block Turner, and be just good enough to blow our chances at worst record in the league. From the Rockets' perspective, that would make them a team whose best scorer was a 6'9 footwork master whose game is too finessey to get to the line much or shoot many high-percentage shots, hence the so-so 106 offensive rating. In other words, they'd start to look a lot like the Al Jefferson-led Minnesota Timberwolves. Hence, I assume that if they trade for Iguodala, Martin hangs around. In that case, I think it's an odd move to make because, while Iguodala's a big upgrade over Battier, he doesn't address any of their weaknesses. That's the one position at which they have a good defender, they aren't really in desperate need of a third scorer... I guess he helps with rebounding?

From the Rockets' perspective, that would make them a team whose best scorer was a 6'9 footwork master whose game is too finessey to get to the line much or shoot many high-percentage shots, hence the so-so 106 offensive rating.

Scola? His OFR is 111, and not really that great of a measure of how good an individual is as a scorer. Personally, I don't think it's such a great idea for Houston either. For being such a friggin' genius, Morey sure has assembled a dud of a roster down there.

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 17:03
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What's the better measure? (And yeah, wrong season.) It seems to me that Houston's big problem is guarding people. Some of which could be coaching, but most of which has to be the combined effect of Brooks, Martin, Scola, and Yao/Brad Miller. They can score, and healthy, they'd be scoring a lot more. The issue is defense and Melo won't help with that. Who that's available can, though?

TS% in relation to usage. If a guy can keep his TS% consistent while taking on a bigger workload, that's a pretty good sign. Scola's has dipped a little, but he's still been pretty efficient. His defense is just atrocious, though, from what I see/hear.

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Tray reply to Tray on Nov 29 at 16:50
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Not that he wouldn't make them a few wins better, but if I were Darryl Morey, he isn't really the guy I'd target with my expirings and whatever other assets I could scrounge together.

Who would you target? Melo? Does he help at all?

I thought the whole goal of dealing Iguodala was to get young talent/picks/expirings this time.

I thought that was the goal when they talked about trading Iverson too...I'm not convinced this franchise - regardless of who is running it - has a fracking clue what it's doing

Short term, they'd probably start him over Battier. Long term, he's a much better player than Battier and an overall upgrade.

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Marty reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 16:52
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I don't think Igoudala for Hill, Battier, and a future #1 is a bad deal. In a "perfect world", if you could get a young big with potential, an expiring, and a decent pick - that's about as good as you can do. What does everyone think about Jason Thompson from Sacramento (the big I wanted over Hawes in the first place)? He's a Jersey kid with decent feet. I think a move back to the East Coast could benefit him.

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 16:26
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Video: Collins on the Sixers losing focus, Evan Turner's struggles, Thaddeus Young's solid play:

http://ow.ly/3h6Zq

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Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 16:28
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Collins stopped the scrimmage with subs leading starters by four after reserve Speights charged into Hawes with the shot clock off (less than 20 seconds left) and talked about the importance of knowing time and situation.

Subs are still beating starters? That's disappointing. I guess Brand guarding Thad and Hawes on Speights represents a couple of really bad mismatches on one end.

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Tom Moore reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 16:45
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Was the five starters and Meeks against Lou, Thad, Nocioni, Speights and Songaila when we watched.

Kapono is back, though he wasn't scrimmaging for the part we saw.

What about this?

Sixers: Buy out Smith poss, so he can go play wherever in his dreamworld. TWill... well, you let him go or take a shot with him. He has the game to play. save 7 million next year on Nocioni. Free flier on James, who looks like a promising young player to me and a better prospect in my book than Thad or Brackins. Stay under the tax this year I think.

Nets: Get Carmelo, eat 2 contracts of players who some may view as valuable. Likely they have to part ways with picks.

Nuggets: Get Thad and Favors. Thad looks like a promising young player right? Murphy could help them out if they want to keep going for the playoffs this year. They rid themselves of JR Smith. They can pretty much grab Lou or TWill or keep JR if they want. Essentially, whatever money works where they take in Favors and Thad.

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Joe reply to Joe on Nov 29 at 16:58
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Nuggets also save about 10 million this year in salary/luxury tax if I'm not mistaken. I am just ballparking that.

Hmmn. So you're saving what, $3M next season and hoping James or Williams can maybe stick. Not bad.

It would also save the Sixers from the inevitable $50M Thad extension.

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Tom Moore reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 17:16
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Heard Thad asked for $11 mill-$12 mill per from Sixers.

Ugh. They're absolutely nuts if they wind up giving him something like that.

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tk76 reply to Tom Moore on Nov 29 at 17:46
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That's a good one. Wow...

This, as a fan, scares me more than just about anything.

Signing Thad to almost any extension would just continue to set this team back. I would immediately label it a worse contract than Brand.

Sixers make the playoffs as an 8 seed
Thad has a good 4/5 games, sixers get pummeled but thad puts up good numbers (cause the other team didn't care what he did)
Thad gets 5 years 55 million

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 19:20
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If this happened I don't know how i'd be able to continue following this team. I really hope that the next CBA limits contract lengths to 4 years or preferably just make contracts not fully guaranteed.

You didn't stop when it happened 5 years ago did you?

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johnrosz reply to Joe on Nov 29 at 19:49
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As bad as EB? A bit of a stretch. He won't get anywhere near that, Thad's agent knew they'd try to low ball him in the hopes of TY wanting the security of a contract under the current CBA.

I think a contract in the neighborhood of Lou would be pretty fair. A majority of the community continues to hate on him while completely ignoring the fact that he's shown some signs of progression/has been one of the better players on the team this year.

He's shown no signs of progression

He scores in transition, you still can't call plays for him, he has no basketball iq.

He's always done that

What else does he do?

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Jason reply to johnrosz on Nov 29 at 20:14
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I truly think that signing thad, assuming there was no significant improvement from here until the end of the season, for 5/55 would be worse than EB's contract. EB at least had a little bit of promise. Thad is Thad, an undersized 4 or an under talented 3, whichever way you look at it. I would be 100% ok with giving Thad a deal like JJ reddick got over the summer (front heavy 3/20) if the sixers thought there was a chance he could become a starting 3 in the league, but to give him a 5 year 50 deal is insane considering he's shown little to be an immediate starter, let alone a top starter on the team which someone making 10 mill a year should be.

Also to the notion that Thad is a good bench player, I agree, but it all depends on how the team is constructed. Even at 5/25, 5/30, it just locks up $$ for a bench player that might not fit in our rotation in 5 years (see lou williams right now).

How many good bench players does one team need?

Do bench players really NEED long term deals unless they are uniquely talented (redick and korver as shooter, manu is a 'bench' guy in san antonio)

Is what Thad can do easily found in a veteran playing on year to year deals (ala eddie house) is does he bring something hard to find?

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 20:25
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I worded the last point in my last post poorly, but I completely agree with you that Bench players are unimportant and should be the very last thing a team acquires, but I think paying Thad a deal like Reddick would be reasonable especially if it was front loaded like Reddicks as we'd only have thad on the hook for 1 year after EB and if it was front loaded then his contract would most likely be movable. Granted I'd only be for it if Thad showed some potential at the 3 throughout the year. I would be against signing thad to a 4 or 5 year deal, whether it be a 5/25 deal for him to be a future rotation player. I don't see a point for a subpar team to commit money that far in the future for someone as like thad.

My point (which i worded poorly) is that Redick brings something harder to find in the league (he's a good shooter, like Korver) so you want to lock guys like that up for a few years because they could be in high demand on the open market.

What hard to find skill does Thad bring?

An example is that while Willie Green was never paid a lot per year I always thought a long term deal for a guy like Eddie House when eddie house plays year to year was foolishness...they're the equivalent of middle relievers in baseball you really shouldn't give them long term deals because history indicates a fungibility in them

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 20:46
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We'll the reason i'd be willing to give Thad a 3/20 extension is because I'm not ready to give up on him entirely. I still think there is a possibility that he could be a starting 3 in this league. I know we've discussed this in another thread recently, and you don't agree with me that Thad could someday be a starting 3 in this league. If he could put it together, best case scenario i think he'd be a great match for ET/Jrue at the 3. Obviously he most likely won't pan out as best case, or even an average starter but giving him a deal like JJs isn't taking on too much risk as I don't think this team will be able, or even should be active in free agency until EBs contract is gone, if thad was to get a 3/20 with 6 million due for his final year we'd still have a ton of cap space assuming that Ai9 is gone, and Jrue is extended at a reasonable rate (say he's making 10 million that year) we'd have about 30-35 million in commited $$$ and still would have most likely enough to make a max offer to a free agent. Also I think Thad would still be moveable if he didn't regress at all and showed consistency as he'd still only be 25 at the end of his deal.

But I do agree that Thad doesn't bring a specialized skill set like that and if i didn't think Thad could be a starter in the future i'd much rather let thad go and give Brackins an opportunity to fill his role.

My disagreement stems from the fact that I have seen nothing in his years in the league to believe he's suddenly going to put it together. Sometimes a guy is just a guy, and it sucks, but you've sunk time and money into him and he hasn't shown (to me) any evidence of improvement or dedication to improvement...

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 21:17
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to answer your question above. He battles to keep bigger 4's out of the post defensively. He's an extremely efficient scorer on limited touches, he's more aggressive, finding the right shots within the flow of the offense. He's making a concerted effort to get to the line.

I'm definitely overstating his improvement to a degree, but I think to say he hasn't made ANY progress is dead wrong. He's probably been the most consistent player on the team outside of Iggy over the last handful of games

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Jason reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 21:18
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With the way that Collins has been using Thad I don't think it will happen either. I also recall reading a quote from collins recently saying Thad isn't a 3. If that's the case i'd rather just let him go, the difference between him and brackins in the grand scheme of things is minimal. Part of the reason (small reason) that I want iguodala (if traded) to bring back a big is to hopefully free up some minutes for Thad at the 3.

Question about evaluating guys like Jrue and their good games. Same question I've asked before.

How do you know fool's gold from the real thing? Are these 20/13/1 games a sign of the future or flashes in the pan?

Case in point: Ramon Sessions:

The end of his rookie year:
4/12/08: 12 pts, 13 asst, 2 TO. 6 reb
4/14/08: 20 pts, 24 asst, 2 TO, 8 reb
4/16/08: 25 pts, 14 asst, 3 TO, 7 reb

In his rookie year he started the last 10 games. In those games he averaged: 11.5pts, 11.3 asst, 3.2 TO, 5 reb, shooting 46%.

The next year he put up 18+ pts 20 times. He put up 8+ asst 25 times. He had 44 pts, 14 asst game, as well as games of 16/16, 15/17, 26/7, 27/8... and a bunch more impressive lines.

So I would argue that Sessions showed flashes of elite play that were more impressive than the numbers Jrue has put up. But since then Sessions has settled into a bit role player. But I'm sure there were signs that his great games were not a sign of a future star, right?

So looking at the upside of Jrue, why will he be a top level starting PG where Sessions was fool's gold? Is it the better rounded game? The better PG instincts (debatable), opportunity, work ethic, coaching, chance?

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Tray reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 17:06
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I believe Brian and a lot of other people really liked Sessions so I'm not sure that there were any signs. A lot of people think Sessions may still come along.

I thought Sessions was a good PG, but never wanted him for this team because of his shooting (this is back when he was a restricted FA). It think at some point I said Lou for Sessions might be a good swap because the team didn't have a backup for Jrue and Sessions fits that mold better than Lou.

For me, I think Jrue's legit because he's got the intangibles, the tangibles and he's showing production. Sessions is still a decent PG, but he's always going to be limited by his complete lack of a jumper pedestrian athleticism.

Sessions was also two years older than Jrue when he started showing some production, which isn't a huge factor, but it's a factor nonetheless.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 17:21
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I never saw any of Sessions's great games. Do you think that was just opportunity and aggressiveness on a bad team? Probably a Buck fan could fill us in.

I saw most of that 44-point game. It was against the Pistons. He was just putting his head down and driving to the rim on Iverson and Stuckey mercilessly.

Honestly, in the right system he could be productive. The triangle (in Minny) and now the PO (in Cleveland) are probably the two worst systems he could be in. The guy can't shoot at all, and both of those systems look for the PG to knock down jumpers.

DeMarcus Cousins Update: Everyone's favorite misunderstood, destructively inefficient rookie big man was just kicked out of practice! Who gets blamed: (a) the coach or (b) Tyreke Evans?

It was your fault

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 17:34
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Yeah. pretty much 99.5% Brian's Fault. The other 0.5% likely had something to do with frustration over his higher tax bracket. So Brian and Obabma.

Are team fines tax deductible? That may explain it, his accountant told him he needed to give some back.

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Rich reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 17:26
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I can see you having a Google alert set for 'Demarcus Cousins bad' or something like that. Probably comes in handy.

I would, but the volume of e-mail would flood my inbox.

He was upset cause someone stole the box of Twinkies out of his locker.

Hey you never know when you're gonna want a twinkie and not find it but you'll find a abandoned truck full of snowballs (who eats coconut, that's just gross)

Bill Murray made that movie.

I was SHOCKED when it was really bill murray, but i'm a big eisenberg fan so I just liked it start to finish, gf was a little concerned cause the beginning was so gruesome but she toughed it out (glad someone got the reference though)

you're probably the only person in the world without the last name eisenberg to consider yourself a big eisenberg fan. Michael Cera hates you.

Do you have Adventureland on Blu-Ray?

I do not have blu-ray - nor do i have adventureland on DVD - though i have seen it repeatedly.

Michael Cera is very good at play george michael bluth - that's all he's good at

He's like a male ellen page - i do one thing very well and people keep giving me jobs for it :)

I have a stack of DVD's like over 100 and probably have wached like 10 I bought more than once.

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 20:43
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I mean, Eisenberg's performance in The Social Network is better than anything Cera's ever done or will ever do. I didn't really like Adventureland though. Or anything else he's been in, for that matter.

It's hard to screw up the words of Aaaron Sorkin, Ceras worked with good screenwriters, but Sorkin is one of the best around today, he can make talentless folk look good (just look what he did for Rob Lowe)

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 21:15
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Oh, I think this film is by far the best thing Sorkin's been involved in. I give the credit to Fincher and Eisenberg.

I'm glad, but I've always gone with a theory that without a great script you won't get a great movie. Contrary to what the talentless alba says - scripts are important and good actors use them...Fincher is a good director, but he's made some crap (because of crap scripts). Talented actors can elevate a crap script but only so far, a great script can make even the most talentless look talented.

There's a lot of actors out ther today that to me aren't actors, they just keep playing the same role over and over, adventureland, zombieland, the social network, eisenberg is still pretty much playing the same person over and over.

Without the script eisenberg and fincher wouldn't be oscar favorites

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 23:39
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I don't see how Eisenberg's playing the same character in The Social Network as he does in Adventureland. They're both socially awkward but that's about it. Anyway, I think there's much more variability in the quality of an average screenwriter's films from film to film than there is in an average director's, although perhaps that's less true today, as most contemporary directors are so visually lousy that the only thing that distinguishes one movie from another is the quality of its dialogue.

We need to have a team of similar type players. Maybe Cousins, Speights, Beasley, Redd, and ?. Not sure who to start at PG. Michael Redd?

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Nov 29 at 17:38
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Sorry, did not mean Redd at SG. Meant JR Smith.

Redd isn't really a headcase, is he? I thought he was just a malingerer.

I'd go with a big backcourt. JR Smith at the two and Terrence Williams at the point.

I thought redd was just injury prone

Gilbert Arenas should start on that team

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 18:06
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That's not a bad team. But they need some vet leadership. Maybe Z-Bo and then as a big man's coach hire DC.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 18:08
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Bah... Not Michael Redd.... "Red", as in Delonte West.

Man, I'm getting old when I can't tell my Michael Redd's from my Delonte "Red" West's.

Javaris Crittenton as the gunner off the bench?

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tk76 reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 18:13
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You can't have Critt and the Hibachi in the same locker-room. You will have to chose your loose cannon.

I think they all need to take a reality potion

This situation makes me sick. He's not even worth 3 years/$45M. Ugh.

It makes me laugh because it was inevitable and you know the yankees are going to over pay 'the derek' and he's going to hurt the team, i'm hoping for a brett favre like scenario personally.

Supposedly they have a budget, spending 15 million on a useless short stop who shouldn't play every day is awesome :)

Could be worse, he could be as bad as Rollins.

Rollins is paid a lot less, but I've been begging the phillies to find a short stop of the future for two years...both franchises are equally screwed at the short stop position...short and long term :)

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johnrosz reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 22:37
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well, JRoll is still a great defensive SS. Can't say the same about Jeter

Never could either ;)

Check the defensive numbers for 2009.

And Rollins is still a decent defensive SS for about 90 games/year. Jeter still plays full seasons and his offensive production is still better than Rollins, when Rollins can actually play.

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johnrosz reply to Brian on Nov 30 at 2:24
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We all know that his fielding percentage/low number of errors hardly make him a good defensive SS. To say his range is even average at this point might be a stretch. Jimmy gets to everything, literally everything and has one of the best arms of any infielder in the game.

Your point about playing a full season is valid. Starting to become a major concern with JRoll.

Yeah

I don't look at those stats

Look up UZR - brian brings up 2009 cause that's pretty much the only year n jeter's career whose uzr was not terrible

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dwhite reply to Brian on Nov 30 at 8:55
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Stumbled upon this article a couple weeks ago...Redd's somewhat of a headcase, but in a different way.

http://www.thelantern.com/sports/former-buckeye-and-current-nba-star-michael-redd-i-should-be-dead-1.1750298

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deepsixersuede on Nov 29 at 21:43
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Would D.Kahn like this starting 5 next year? Milicic,Love,Beasley,Iggy and Rubio with Webster and Ellington supplying shooting off the bench. Could they reach championship level in 2 years?

Give us Pekovic, W.Johnson, either a future#1 or rights to N.Bjelica [6'10" sg.,sf,pf] and we save about 4 mill. in cap space. Pekovic is more of an offensive center but wouldn't block shots like Gortat.

Only player of value on that team is Love. (Well, unless you want to count Ridnour and Tolliver looks good too)

Beasley's game is up in some areas, down in others. Mostly, he is just shooting more.

Sorry, the last statement was saying they would be nowhere near championship level, but they would be 10 games better with Iguodala probably.

I'm sure Kahn would love it, but Rubio's never playing in Minny.

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deepsixersuede reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 21:50
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What are Rubios' rights worth around the league or more specifically, to the Knicks?

They're probably worth a lot to the Knicks, but the Knicks don't have a lot to give...for anyone.

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Joe reply to Brian on Nov 29 at 22:29
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You know who is playing really good for them? Landry Fields. Guy is having quite a year for a rookie.

Douglas was playing well until he got hurt (sigh, fantasy steals that keep getting hurt) as well...

Chris Sheridan loves him some Landry (who loses points due to his first name being a last name)

He has to be in the Rookie of the Year discussion if he starts all 82 games and the Knicks make the playoffs, but he's going to have a hard time beating out Beastly Blake Griffin. Landry is a player that always seems to be in the right place at the right time, rarely makes mistakes, and isn't afraid to shoot when open from anywhere. He's a four-year Stanford guy, too, so he's older and more intelligent than your average rookie.

Here's the thing, he's a four year guy which tends to mean improvement is less likely...so he is this good now because he's more NBA ready?

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 22:57
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Does he need to improve much?

I think his FG% likely won't be 55% for his career as a SG. He is going to shoot more as the years go on. His 3 ball will improve I'm sure, he will probably improve as a playmaker over time, his D will improve.

I think he will likely improve, but even if he doesn't improve much, does it matter? All he needs to shoot more and he is a beast in the eyes of most fans IMO.

If the Knicks don't win anything relevant it won't matter :)

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Nov 29 at 23:01
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Now that Amare is playing good and not terrible like he was in the beginning of the year, they may string together a playoff berth. What more can Knicks fans expect?

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deepsixersuede reply to GoSixers on Nov 30 at 0:09
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I like Douglas's first name/last name better [Toney?] and doesn't that mean he eventually has to wear a sixer uniform?

Any Eagles fans watching the Monday night game?

The announcer keep bringing it up, but I am happy to see BWest playing well.

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Rich reply to Joe on Nov 29 at 23:18
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I will always root for B-West, he might have been the Birds' best player this decade, but I could live with people who think it's McNabb. I hate that Eagles' organization often act like they are God's gift to football. If they don't have Brian Westbrook, they don't win a lot of big games in this decade.

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Nov 29 at 23:29
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They also deserve credit for drafting him out of a 1 AA school though.

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Rich reply to johnrosz on Nov 30 at 0:41
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No doubt, I just hate that they have the "Our shit don't stink" attitude all of the time. They are a very well run team though.

How many times did he make a play that just came out of nowhere though to either take the lead or win a big game. Shame of the Matt Bryant 62 yarder was that Westbrook made an unbelievable individual effort to pick the rest of the offense up to take the lead. How about the Minnesota divisional playoff game where he broke the screen for a long gainer. Of course the punt return against the Giants early in his career. Catching that bullet from McNabbb to tie the SB up. So many great memories. It's really weird to see him wearing number 20 as well.

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Nov 30 at 0:59
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One of the greatest Eagles of my lifetime, that's for sure. Yeah they're a very arrogant front office, but I don't think anyone will argue about their ability to run a successful organization.

I'd give anything for them to run the Sixers, because they understand the importance of putting the right people in place from top to bottom.

They'd have never gotten into the cap hell that the Sixers are in because Banner would learn the NBA model better than any GM in the league. They wouldn't give EB a massive deal because he was almost 30. They'd never have allowed Iverson to walk all over them, nor would they have failed to get him proper help during the years they could've contended.

This turned into an Ed Snider rant for me out of nowhere, basically I hate him and think he's a black eye on the city, a real shame that the sheep Flyers fans are too naive to realize what a nightmare he has been.


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