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Game 30 Differential Production Stats

Thanks Statman. Really interesting stuff if you take a look at the spreadsheet and the DP by quarter. Jrue got toasted in the first quarter by Billups (-5 defensive DP), Thad carried them through the second (+6.75 overall DP), then in the second half Jrue and Brand combined for +13.25 overall DP.

Turner was horrible in the fourth (-5 overall), and Jodie made up for a putrid third (-5 overall) with a huge fourth (+6.25 overall)

Good to see you back, Statman. Turner needs to learn, among other things, how to not reach. The fouls he was giving up on Billups last night were silly, because he was in great position to challenge shots. That should be Jrue's main focus right now, staying on the floor. Collins has to be in his ear about not picking up dumb fouls and playing position defense. I'm sure he is, but Jrue has to realize that he can't try and strip everyone in the league. He's too important.

I'm not fully versed in all this yet, but it seems Nocioni was terrible last night. Was this a anomaly or is he just this bad?

I can't remember the last time he wasn't terrible, it's been some time.

Last night his defense was especially atrocious. Aflalo looked like Wade when Nocioni was on him.

So - not playing himself into trade value then huh?:)

The perception is that he's a tough veteran, so if you can find a fool like Stefanski out there looking for "toughness" there's probably a market. Orlando is probably interested.

Right after they find that back up center

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tk76 reply to Brian on Dec 27 at 15:20
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DP needs to add some statistical way to account for toughness, or in Hawes's case Tough hair. It would really even out these analyses :)

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Dec 27 at 15:22
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Birdman would be off the charts.

Really? Always found the mohawk ridiculous on every individual not on the A-Team

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:28
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B.A. Barcus would also be off the charts. As would Clubber Lang. I have a prediction for this game...

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:29
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And yes, normally a mohawk dos not work. But when you are covered with a kaleidescope of tattoos it sort of adds to the crazed recovering junky look.

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 14:36
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I can't speak for DP, but I'm sure it would point out that he's awful. His perimeter defense looks like his feet are stapled to the ground. If the guy isn't trying to post him up, he can't guard anyone.

He's somehow a 36 percent three point shooter, but that's tailed off dramatically recently. Then he brings a new terrible element to the offense: The Nocioni Dribble Drive (I think that's what Vance Walberg had in mind when he created his offense). That should be a -2 in your system, Statman.

Was this an anomaly or is he just this bad?

In the games I've tracked, he's been mostly poor on defense. The only thing he does adequately on defense (for his position) is rebound. Early in the year, he was an asset because of good shooting (he essentially won the Portland game with his shooting, for example). This month, though, he's been an absolute zero on offense (7-30 on 2's, 2-19 on 3's), which makes it inexcusable to play him over Turner.

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eddies' heady's reply to Statman on Dec 27 at 15:22
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"The only thing he does adequately on defense (for his position) is rebound."

Can't you say the same thing about Turner?

"This month, though, he's been an absolute zero on offense (7-30 on 2's, 2-19 on 3's), which makes it inexcusable to play him over Turner."

But hasn't Turner been a zero on offense too?


Not saying Noc should get minutes over Evan, but these two are really in the same boat, and if I had to choose (with both being sucky), I'd probably have to go with Noc just because the guy can at least pose a threat from three and occasionally knock them down. Whereas Evan just stands in the corner or at the arc.

One is at the beginning of his career and one isn't.

It's ridiculous to compare them and have the same expectations from them

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:35
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I wasn't comparing them, more talking about their fit/roles within this team at the moment.

This team at this moment needs to develop and evaluate its players. Not maximize the benefits of having Noce on the floor.

Not everyone has given up on ET yet. I'd think the team would do well to get the most they can out of him- and I doubt he can learn everything in practice. If that were the case then AI would have been a terrible player.

Not maximize the benefits of having Noce on the floor

Wait, there's more than one 'benefit' to having him on the floor?

Looking ahead to tonight's game, it'll be interesting to see how the Sixers defend the Warriors. It'll be interesting to see how they match-up. Monta Ellis has been really good this year (I follow him because he's keeping my fantasy team afloat). That would be an interesting cover for Iguodala (really more of a PG's build), but you can't put Jodie on him.

Jrue-Curry
AI9-Ellis
Jodie-Wright

I'm looking forward to that.

Interesting, they're starting amundson because of an injury to Biedrins (and he's doubtful for tonight), maybe looking to Hawes early (ugh) might not be a bad idea

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Joe reply to Rich on Dec 27 at 15:05
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I'd go...

Jodie-Curry (make Curry show his ankle is ok now)
Jrue-Ellis
Iguodala-Wright

If Curry is healthy and playing well, though, I'd either just pull Jodie or go to the lineup you said.

Jrue owned Ellis twice last year:

once

twice

Ellis was pretty terrible last year, he's shown marked improvement this year in almost every aspect of his game (except his FT%). It ought to be an interesting test to see how far Jrue has really come if he can shut down this new 'improved' Monta Ellis

I'd settle for him being able to play 40 minutes and not get into foul trouble, to be honest.

That would be nice too, though Ellis is at a career high of FTA per game, even though he's taking less shots, I wonder if he's getting the 'start' treatment. I wouldn't think so

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eddies' heady's reply to Brian on Dec 27 at 15:33
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I wish for the same too. Although Ellis is sure to give him fits ala the Derrick Rose mold with his attacking nature.

Jrue owned Ellis twice last year

Right, and the one type of wing player Iguodala struggles with is the smaller faster guard who can get around him (Stuckey gave him a lot of trouble last year, and Stuckey is kind of a Monta-light).

Monta has been shooting a lot better this year from what I've seen, especially recently; Jrue will have his hands full. On the other hand, I expect Brand to have a good game vs. whoever is guarding him.

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Rich reply to Joe on Dec 27 at 15:13
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Oh yeah, I forgot Curry is coming off an injury. That might be a better option to see if he can do anything. I know one thing though, I trust Doug Collins on the defensive end. Whatever he thinks will work, probably will.

btw, the tip is at 10:30 tonight, no preview beyond this here comment section. The game thread will be up at 9pm and I'll be here (there) throughout guzzling coke and wondering if they're ever going to get around to plowing the streets in brooklyn.

Is brooklyn the borough that Transit forgot?:)

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eddies' heady's on Dec 27 at 15:17
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So Turner totals out the worst of all the players even with around 30 minutes of court time, proving the guy pretty much kills the team when he's on the floor. Still can't understand the opinions of some that state this guy plays good defense, because I have yet to see a smidgen of it. Yeah, he tries, but trying at it and succeeding are two different things.

Maybe Lou coming back will revert him to his rightful place - on the bench - cause he has done nothing to deserve any minutes this year outside of lucking into them by way of someone else getting injured. Earn 'em kid, which he obviously hasn't done.

-9.5 is worse than -7.75 still right?

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:32
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Not sure about your comprehension, but -8 was the worst for anyone on the team. And that was ET's.

There's two charts there chief. One for offense and one for defense. If you only look at half the game you only get half the story

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:38
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To be fair, he was talking specifically about defense:

"Still can't understand the opinions of some that state this guy plays good defense, because I have yet to see a smidgen of it."

He also then went on to hope for Lou to come back, because as we all know, Lou's defense is awesome.

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eddies' heady's reply to tk76 on Dec 27 at 15:43
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actually I was talking about totals. Hence why I said "So Turner totals out the worst...."

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 15:40
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Well, little indian, there is two charts, but there's ONE TOTAL COLUMN cumulative of both charts. I think you're known around here to struggle with comprehension though.

Whoops, you're right, I did read it wrong, sorry about that.

Though thinking Lou Williams solves any problems is foolish

So what was that shot Jrue took in the post last night. The one where he sort of shot it backwards over his head off the backboard and in? Was that a move or just a random Horse shot?

It was a smooth-looking circus shot ;-)

I was also left wondering what happened with Turner's shot that hit high on the backboard (and nothing else).

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tk76 reply to Statman on Dec 27 at 15:52
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I think he was just very angry at the backboard.

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Rich reply to tk76 on Dec 27 at 15:56
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The one thing I like about Jrue is that he seems to be a good shooter when he takes shots that are off-balance, off the wrong foot, when it looks like he may have traveled, etc. He seems to know whether to bank it or put it up on the rim so it drops. It may be worth monitoring too, because it seems like his 'slow drives' are more succesful when he attacks the rim with reckless abandon (sometimes he gets, blocked, misses the dunk, etc.)

He's almost like a bad ball hitter in baseball. Maybe we should start calling him "Vlad."

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johnrosz on Dec 27 at 15:58
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thought some of the calls on both Jrue and Turner were ticky tacky. One in particular caused DC to flip out, Turner was called for his 5th on what liked a very solid defensive play. Doug chewed out the official for a good 30 seconds, thought he was about to get a T for it even.

Yeah, that one against Turner late in the game when Billups was out of control, and it sent Billups to the line.

I'm a firm believer that there isn't a defensive metric available that comes even close to proving anything more than correlation, and even that's tenuous at best. Jrue ranks pretty poorly across the board on virtually all defensive metrics, and most here agree he's at least a plus defender. Yet, some will use anything that has a negative by Turner's name to "prove" they're right.

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eddies' heady's reply to Derek Bodner on Dec 27 at 17:05
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For me, I use my own two eyes to tell me that Turner is a negative.

You're funny, man. You constantly stay hung up on this "right/wrong" crap and try to deflect it onto others when it seems to be your, and only your, issue. When you realize there are other views/opinions in the basketball universe, you may just be better off for it. Or, maybe you'll just keep apologizing for the kid.

I use my own eyes as well.

I also don't disagree that lately he's been a net negative.

I do disagree with constantly going out of your way to bash the kid and anyone who doesn't think he's doomed to failure throughout his entire career.

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eddies' heady's reply to Derek Bodner on Dec 27 at 17:32
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Come on, stop with the hyperbole. Extreme hyperbole.

How can it be considered bashing him when it's merely the truth. And I have not ONCE bashed anyone that feels differently than I do about the kid. You're just so damn affected by it, for some reason.

I tell you what - why don't you wrongly accuse others when they say Spencer Hawes is do-do? You don't seem to have an affinity for him like you do Turner. And saying both are do-do, at this point, is nothing but the truth.

I take exception because of the great glee you seem to take pointing out his deficiencies and failures.

I don't debate people with Hawes because I don't disagree with people about Hawes.

Wait, I thought a do-do was an extinct bird? Spencer Hawes is an extinct bird - I disagree with you

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eddies' heady's reply to Derek Bodner on Dec 27 at 19:16
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So, you went from hyperbole to interpretation? You're something else, my fellow Sixer fan.

First, I'm wrongly accused of bashing, now I type with "great glee". I guess you can see a smile on my face when I tap my keyboard. I love this team so much that I'm really glad they practically blew a high ass draft pick. Yeah, that makes sense doesn't it?

Because Turner has upside, Hawes has proven himself to be a rotten player over the course of several seasons. Personally I see, I don't know, only a 30% chance of his being the player we thought he was when we drafted him (maybe a 60% chance of his being a good, but not very special, NBA player), but that's a whole lot better than the 0% chance you seem to be giving him.

Another huge pet-peeve: opinion is different than truth.

Everything from your evaluation of his abilities going forward to your rating of his play is opinion. We can have different opinions. None of it is truth.

Clearly 1/3rd of an NBA season is enough to close the book on a player. Any more minutes at this point would be wasted. Might as well play Nocioni or Kapono. Heck, it was clear he was a bust in summer league, right ;)

It's a fact.

Just for the hell of it - anyone know what Jrue had accomplished 30 games in last year?

About 9 DNP-CD's.

and another 7 games where he played

Yup - 9 DNP-CD's

10 starts (I think lou was hurt right?)

9 games where he played over 20 minutes

FG% - 34.9
3Pt% - 30.2
FT% - 80 (20 attempts)

A:TO less than 1.5

That was meant to say "another 7 games where he played less than 10 minutes". Whoops.

But that's because they were preserving his psyche right?

Didn't want to kill his confidence by putting him up against the great Nate Robinson in a preseason game, if I remember correctly.

Nate Robinson has been known to reduce stronger players into puddles of goo

Dear Sixers - do you own one of these?

http://www.noahbasketball.com/products.php

Have you seen the basketball retriever? I can't remember the actual name, but it's this huge machine with like a funnel that goes all the way up to the hoop. It retrieves balls and fires passes.

Interesting. The apparatus I linked to was in that NYT article I linked earlier. Interesting to hear that Thad went there

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Rich reply to Brian on Dec 27 at 18:39
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Usually called a 'gun' or something like it. I think this is what you mean-

http://www.dowdlesports.com/catalog/athletic/catimage/kbacoach_1891_11833222%5B1%5D.gif

Yeah, that's it. My boss's school bought one for their hoops team, he says it's working miracles. They're young, so you see how that net goes higher than the rim? That helps teach them to get more air under their shots to get it up over the rim. They use it for practice all the time.

Whole bunch of tools listed on that sight. The think I linked to is a freaking computer that does video - analyzes your angle of release and a whole bunch of other stuff - the sixers should have their guys working on all this stuff :)

Look Derek, Eddies' Heady's cares about one thing: the team this season, and nothing else. Everyone agrees he has been a below average (bad, whatever you want to call it) before January 1st of his rookie season.

If you still want to see him play and try and develop into a better player, you are wrong in EH's mind. He should be playing in China right now, traded, not playing, whatever. If you tell EH you disagree and that you flat out think that he's wrong that he want Lou in the game over him, you are parenting his beliefs or some other morally corrupt BS. When he calls you or me a Turner apologist (WE AREN'T SAYING HE'S BEEN GOOD, WE JUST WANT TO SEE HIM PLAY), it's a fact.

Just stop arguing with him, he is going to comment when Evan plays badly, and his rookie play is a 100 percent accurate picture of the future to EH. Almost everyone else disagrees and at least wants to see him fail a little longer, just leave it at that. This is the last time I'm going to talk about Turner and EH in the same post, it doesn't lead to very good discussion.

(I also have a huge ego for writing this post).

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eddies' heady's reply to Rich on Dec 27 at 19:20
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Yes, an ego.....and an alias.

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eddies' heady's reply to Derek Bodner on Dec 27 at 19:28
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Get over it dude. To this point, his play has turned my opinions into nothing but truth. Let's both hope he turns it into a bucket of lies.

It was getting too small, but to continue the talk about the shooting devices-

As a kid, I remember going to basketball at St. Joes and seeing their players work with these machines (Ironically, the guy who I saw use it most was an incoming freshman named Delonte West). As for helping guys on this team hone their shots (Turner would be the main guy I'd target), they have guys who rebound for them whenever they want. Some teams use brooms to shoot over so you simulate having a hand in your face. I of course have no clue what the Sixers do, though I do remember Ayers screwing up Thad last year.

I would send to Turner to one guy, Herb Magee. He's won a million games as a coach at Philly U but he doubles as a shooting guru. He helped a lot of guys in the NBA become better shooters.

As to the interesting debate in the previous thread, putting aside 45-point losses and our really lousy start to the season, one thing that's utterly undeniable is that we're a really bad offensive team. 8th worst in the league. Even during our improved stretch of play, the bad offense has been a constant. What also is undeniable is that, with one famous exception seven seasons ago in a league that looks very little like the league of today, all the teams that have won in the post-Jordan era were good offensive teams. Most were very good. The Celtics won with the league's tenth best offense and the league's best defense. I guess the wildly optimistic view would be that if we could somehow acquire an elite defensive big man - and not someone like Camby, someone young enough to participate in multiple playoff runs several years from now - maybe Turner and Holiday will get good enough to make the offense above-average enough that we could seriously contend. The trouble is that that's just insanely conjectural - it would be like last year's Bobcats seeing a path to contention through Felton and Gerald Henderson. Jrue has promise, but I tend to not think that he'll be a very good or efficient scorer. Turner's just a total crap shoot. I see things differently; I don't think you keep this core together just because the team's defending well. Defense is just as much a function of coaching as personnel; after all, we only really play a few plus defenders, and GoSixers or Kate Fagan or I only want to trade one of them. If you did the Iguodala for Batum/Przybilla deal, I think in the long run we'd still be a good defensive team under Collns's coaching, and would have a chance of drafting the piece we actually need to have the great offense that you need to contend in today's NBA.

I think in the long run we'd still be a good defensive team under Collns's coaching, and would have a chance of drafting the piece we actually need to have the great offense that you need to contend in today's NBA.

Assuming Przybilla plays and the hype isn't completely unwarranted on Batum, you probably aren't talking about enough of a drop off in defense to equate to a bad enough record to get a top pick this season. So I guess you'd be hoping they make no upgrades to the roster and don't bring Przybilla, Hawes or Thad back after this season, so maybe next year, if Jrue and Turner don't make some kind of leap, you're bad enough to add a top draft pick. Is that your hope?

Off topic: What are the chances Miami goes after Sammy this offseason? In my biased mind, it seems like a perfect fit.

If the MLE still exists, they should.

Of course, the Sixers should go after him as well.

He's a tall big man who can play defense. You dont think he'll get more than the MLE?

We're back to that perception vs. reality thing. The going rate for Dalembert was apparently Hawes and Nocioni, is that more or less valuable than the MLE? Although Dallas is always up for overpaying for big men, so who knows.

I still believe that Sacto will move Dalembert before the deadline for more than what the sixers did. Remember the sixers were the motivated sellers, hating sam, trying to trade him for the past 2 years or so. They probably could have gotten more basketball wise but would it have been a good 'tax' deal? We don't know.

Playing in the hinterlands of a terrible team is not going to help Sam at all, but if he gets traded before the deadline to a solid team - hell say he backs up dwight - and performs well - he'll get a big contract - just like when he had 5 games against detroit last time he was about to be a free agent :)

At least he's back to starting in Sacto :)

That all depends on how the CBA works out, Miami can't afford him and has very little (if any) in the way of assets to do a sign and trade.

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Joe reply to GoSixers on Dec 27 at 19:34
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Do you think if the MLE exists that Sammy would get much more than the MLE based on his current season.

In Florida, he would be taxed less and win championships as well. So a 4 year 27 million dollar deal with Miami vs. 4 year 35 million with Charlotte just seems like a no-brainer to me.

And in Miami he would get more recognition.

Wow the pistons just suck

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