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Short On Firepower

When is the latest point in a career a player can become a "go-to" player... I know there are guys like Stephen Jackson who really took a while to grow into that role (however effective he may be), but in general how long does Jrue have? I feel like in this league you either are that kind of player from very early on in your career or it never happens.

I don't think there is a rule to this because of the different situations young players are put in as youngsters. But ig you put a gun to my head i would the window for becoming a go to guy is 6 years.

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T McL reply to Xsago on Dec 28 at 15:10
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If it is 6 years than this is Iggy's last chance! haha kidding... Dorrell Wright also a 6th year player, could have been the start of something big last night

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T McL reply to T McL on Dec 28 at 15:11
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Also, 10 lashings to me for calling him "Iggy"... poor form by me

For some reason, I don't think Dorrel Wright scores 28 on Iguodala with any number of shots. How many times has Iguodala's man scored even 23 points against him this year? That would be zero.

Other comments:
* The team also missed Iguodala's passing and playmaking. Meeks in particular had a couple opportunities to dish when he got a step, but he didn't do it. I also wonder if Jrue could become a big-time scorer if he played off the ball and didn't have distribution responsibilities.
* Updating the "Can Turner play with Iguodala" stats: the team is now 2-6 when Turner plays 25 minutes but Iguodala doesn't and 1-5 when they both play 25 minutes. It's more a question of "Can Turner play?" at this point. I'm not in the camp where I'll rejoice if Turner does poorly (I definitely hope he turns it around), but I do seriously wonder about his natural talent being NBA-level. Would he even dominate in the D-league like a Terrence Williams (or Brackins)?
* Another Turner question: can he dunk from a standstill when underneath the basket, or does he need a running start to dunk? On a couple of his offensive rebounds, I thought he should have attempted to dunk.
* The one guy Collins has lost completely is Speights. You could see it when Speights passed up two shots (reminds me of years gone by when my cat would pass up a meal -- we knew he was sick) and then made no motion on D toward a couple shooters (granted it was garbage time). I don't know what's been going on in practice, but Speights is the tragedy of the year (other than Turner).
* Nocioni is playing so badly that he makes me wish for Kapono.
* Get ready for a lot of games like this if the Sixers trade Iguodala. This kind of game (we endured a whole season of it last year), where they can't get stops, is nearly unwatchable for me.

, but I do seriously wonder about his natural talent being NBA-level.

Well that's just nonsense

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Mike P reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 11:31
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Is it? He's looked completely lost. Does he even have a place in an NBA rotation at this point?

He is thabeeting all over the place so far this season.

Jrue is only 20 and has spent his entire career playing with a third banana who is acting as his teams go to superstar guy.

Jrue should be controlling the offense and have the ball at all times to set up everyone else. That will be one of the positives of trading Iggy. Giving Jrue free reign to control the team. Not in terms of scoring 40 points a game, but in controlling it from the PG position.

In theory Iggy and Jrue should be connecting on like 8 easy alley oops a game, but Iggy loves clanking those long jumpers.

Yes, it's ridiculous. He's having a bad rookie season, that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to play in the D-league, that's an asinine over reaction not worthy of intelligent thinkers

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Mike P reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 11:37
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We might as well send him down to see.

I mean at least Terrence Williams has shown flashes.

Evan's had like a triple 3 once?

He's having a really horrible season. It looks like at times he has no idea what he's doing. It's all gone downhill after that first game in Miami.

I mean at least he could get some confidence back in the D League. Guy won't even shoot the damn ball.

Yes, he's having a bad rookie season, so let's conclude he doesn't have NBA talent.

It's not like he had a bad freshman season while adjusting from high school to college.

It's not like he's shown an ability to adjust to a new level after a bad year.

It's not like people aren't over reacting or anything

The D-League is a useless tool

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Mike P reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 12:13
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Is it as useless as Evan's contributions to the team?

HEY OHHHH!

Yes, he's having a bad rookie season, so let's conclude he doesn't have NBA talent. It's not like he had a bad freshman season while adjusting from high school to college. It's not like he's shown an ability to adjust to a new level after a bad year.

Honest question: is there a performance threshold such that, if Turner performs below it, you would start to wonder about his talent level; or is the "takes a year to adjust" reasoning enough for you to keep the faith in his long-term prospects no matter how poorly he performs?

People smarter than me (and you) about college basketball indicated he had NBA level talent. So either pretty much EVERYONE who evaluates basketball is totally wrong in a way that would be shocking or you might just be over reacting a scoche don't you think?

Those people are "wrong" most of the time in the sense that most high draft picks don't pan out as expected at the pro level. You can say, "Sure, the guy didn't work hard enough, etc. but they weren't wrong about the talent" but pretty often they were wrong about the talent. I didn't quite get the hype for Turner as a pro based on his college, game and I don't quite get the mystery talk about "what's wrong with him" now. The main thing wrong with him is that he is a weak shooter - it's not a big mystery. Brian said the other day that his only faith in Turner's ability to shoot is based on his college stats. If someone really wanted to investigate that, I'd like to see stats for his college shooting that broke things down based on how far he was from the basket, whether he was moving or stationary when shooting, and how long it took him to release the ball. Are we confident that this statistical analysis would show good perimeter shooting ability by Turner in college in a relevant way - e.g. he was actually far from the basket and didn't have all day to shoot the ball?

WOuld you care to back up any of your sweeping generalizations with facts?

Which "sweeping generalizations"? The claim that most high lottery picks disappoint? I thought that was well known.

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zig reply to izimbra on Dec 28 at 16:57
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i can't find the stats right now, but turner was pretty efficient coming off ball screens in college. he was also great in the pick and roll in college, which makes me wonder why he can't sometimes run the pick and roll with elton.

I'd be interested to see the stats you have. But I suspect that Turner is a lot less efficient when he has to hurry his shot. I phrased the post above the way I did because it's really a different case when he comes around a screen and then his man in college drops way off of him, respecting his ability to drive, vs. when he comes off a screen and pulls up right away with the shot. I'd really be interest to see the most relevant stats that are out there.

But I suspect that Turner is a lot less efficient when he has to hurry his shot.

I expect most players are a lot less efficient when they have to hurry their shot

I'm saying that if we want to translate shooting percentages for a certain type of shot from NCAA to NBA, we should make sure that a given player will get to take that type of shot in the NBA. That shouldn't be hard to understand or controversial. But in NCAA, Turner was a bigger threat to drive around his man as he typically had either a size or a speed advantage over the guy guarding him. So it makes sense to me that they played off of him a higher percentage of the time. Therefore the amount of time he has to get off a shot in the NBA from the same distance may be substantially less.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 16:45
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This does happen all the time. I mean, pretty much every draft features a few lottery pick busts, often some picked pretty high. People thought Jordan picked Morrison a little high but no one thought he wasn't an NBA player. The freshman year thing you keep trotting out - I mean, you watch baseball, what do you think about a prospect who doesn't show anything in the minor leagues until he's been around for a few years? The typical read is that he's beating up on younger competition but probably doesn't have real talent. It's similar with college ball. Here's a guy who wasn't highly ranked in his high school class, did little his freshman year, and only ends up dominating in his third year, in a league where there were (a) no pro prospects and (b) no one his size to defend him. It's been noted that he struggled against the few athletic defenders he faced. I'm not certain he'll be a bust, but it seems like there's a very real chance he's Adam Morrison redux. Same story - not highly regarded in college, slight impact his freshman year, dominates a weak league as a junior largely by being longer than anyone else who played his position.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 28 at 12:41
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Magee, you stated back in summer league when he was stinking up the joint that you would give him around the 20 game threshold and if he showed no improvement you would then become concerned. So, you're still going to hold tight to that last thread of 'he takes a year to adjust'? This ain't college he's adjusting to.

*First, it was he hadn't played in months before summer league. He was out of shape.

*Second, it was he had to become acclimated to a new position of shooting guard. (failure to this point)

*Third, it was he wasn't being used properly by the staff at his more suitable position of point guard. (can't tell he's on the court when playing here)

*Fourth, it was he takes a year to adjust to another level of ball. (most are clinging to this one tightly)

*And sprinkled in between all that was, Noc and Lou and Meeks were "taking" his minutes.

When does it ever become clear that Evan just may not be cut to the chase as all those 'experts' you're claiming to place faith in sold you that he was?

Isn't this akin to the 5 stages of grief thingie?

Now before you get all smart-allecky, I'm just asking you a question and would prefer a respectful response. I'm not stating that you should get on the bandwagon that I've accusedly been leading the charge of. You certainly reserve the right to your disagreeable opinion.

I'm just tired of the ridicule or mocking of others when someone has a different outlook on the team and/or players. (not saying only you are guilty of this but healthy debate seems to be absent in this regard because of perceived personas from particular monikers)

OK, let her rip ;)

This is the last time I will ever respond to you as you exist to pick fights and try and prove 'you were right', you ignore when you are wrong and you gloat like a 5 year old and then say you aren't gloating when people smarter than you (almost everyone here, and I'm not including me in that group) call you on it.

Am I concerned about Turner, sure, am I over reacting like you and the rest of the fools who are ready to write off his entire career?


Nope

And with that, I'm done with you and your little petty silly games

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 18:27
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Did someone mention 5 year old?

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danny J reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 20:10
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How old are you? You seriously act like a 12 year old. When someone upsets you, you cry and pout and call people names. It's pathetic.

Do you have a clue what you're talking about? Probably not.

I think it's entirely reasonable to be concerned and worried about ET's performance this year. To think that his struggles are simply because of an 'adjustment' period is what's foolish.

That being said, I'm willing to wait and cheer for him considering our options. No way he should be averaging under 20 minutes a game because of someone like Nocioni.

Rotation chart and game capsule link added above.

Can cabin fever be fatal?

Only if you listen to the voices in your head.

A note on something Turner does well.

Turner creates possessions for his team. Net possessions is essentially Rebounds + STLs - TOs. These are the possessions you gain or waste pretty much.

Here are some numbers for that... PER 48 minutes.
Avg SG - 4.6
Avg SF - 6.5
Iguodala - 7.1
Lou WIll - 1.3
Jo Meeks - 2.4
Nocioni - 6.6 ( he plays a lot of PF, so this is kind of moot)
E Turner - 7.6

So per48 minutes... Turner is going to earn you 5.2 more possessions than Jodie Meeks. This matters and should not be ignored.

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Jason reply to Joe on Dec 28 at 13:40
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How many times does ET win a contested Rebound? Most of the time it looks like he's getting Drebounds that were going to be rebounded by another sixer. Just started looking for this but he usually just gets rebounds where he should be running up the court and let someone else (a big) grab the rebound since the other team isn't trying to get an offensive rebound. He knows where to put himself, but the thing is that he's not needed to get those rebounds. I would like to know whether ET going for the defensive rebounds slows down the teams pace which i'm guessing it does.

I don't know how to look up the pace stat with ET in, but creating possessions has not helped his offensive rating which is far worse than Jodie's.

OFR is a personal stat on basketball-reference.com. Meaning it's how many points a player scores per 100 possessions, it's not a team stat like DFR is for players. It's kind of odd, I had to look it up, actually.

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Jason reply to Brian on Dec 28 at 14:19
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oops, didn't know that.

For basketball value though that isn't an individual stat correct? Obviously it doesn't take into account the lineup that ET is playing with vs the lineup that Jodie is playing with but still useful to an extent.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2010-2011&team=PHI


My point though is that ET doesn't need to be going for the amount of defensive rebounds that he does and might benefit from being 20 feet further down the floor than back at the defensive glass.

I'm skeptical that he's only taking rebounds away from other Sixers. Didn't you use the same theory to try devalue Dalembert last season?

Someone did at least

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Jason reply to Brian on Dec 28 at 14:26
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Wasn't me, and I would never say that about a big due to being close to the rim so they should be going for every rebound even.

I'm sure that ET wins contested rebounds. I worded it too broadly, but there are many instances where he isn't needed to get the rebound and he still goes for it anyway which causes him to be 20+ feet back and causes the team to take longer to set up offensively.

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Jesse reply to Jason on Dec 28 at 20:16
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I've noticed that too. But I've also noticed him rebound well in traffic. I don't think we need to nitpick his rebounding. Also, apparently Collins has been telling him to hang back and go for defensive rebounds.

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Jason reply to Jesse on Dec 28 at 20:20
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The thing i wonder though is if he would benefit from not going after as many rebounds he is and trying to get set up on the offensive end a couple of seconds quicker.

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Joe reply to Jason on Dec 28 at 14:19
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How many times does ET win a contested Rebound?

Often. Very often. I can think of many examples of when he went against PFs and snared a rebound.

Most of the time it looks like he's getting Drebounds that were going to be rebounded by another sixer.

I disagree

Just started looking for this but he usually just gets rebounds where he should be running up the court and let someone else (a big) grab the rebound since the other team isn't trying to get an offensive rebound.

You need to establish position when the shot goes up, which takes work and then you need to secure the rebound, which requires good timing and hands. Turner is great at this.

He knows where to put himself, but the thing is that he's not needed to get those rebounds.

Yes, he is needed. This team needs smalls to rebound A LOT.

I would like to know whether ET going for the defensive rebounds slows down the teams pace which i'm guessing it does.

This is probably somewhat valid. A simple ET on the court vs. off isn't enough though. There is a lot of noise involved surrounding when Jrue and Iguodala are on the court possibly. I'd still be interested to see, but I don't think I'd put much value on the results. I'd also add that a guard rebounding sometimes helps a fast break get started, like when Iguodala grabs a board, so that may be a factor as well.

I don't know how to look up the pace stat with ET in, but creating possessions has not helped his offensive rating which is far worse than Jodie's.

I don't know what that rating is. I'd need someone to explain it to me. If it is just a scoring metric then, well, Turner sucks at scoring, so...

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johnrosz on Dec 28 at 15:07
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I've been pretty patient on the Turner situation, but I must say last night absolutely scared the hell out of me. He doesn't even look like he belongs right now. We're all forgetting that this guy was supposed to be an impact player right away, and he's been nothing of the sort.

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tk76 reply to johnrosz on Dec 28 at 18:40
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This sums up my concern.

If Iquodala plays last night there's no way Wright gets close to scoring 28. His defense alone makes this a different game in the forth quarter. He just got a late Christmas gift last night. Also Dre cuts down some of the turnovers Jrue had by helping handle the ball in the half court.

Iguodala doesn't help at all in the "firepower" category. I don't think he goes off for 25 + points against a team that he should dominate. He's totally regressed from two seasons ago. Is any of this due to his nagging injury? The Sixers scored 95 points last night and I don't think Iguodala playing put them over 100.

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Tray reply to KellyDad on Dec 28 at 16:34
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I agree. Iguodala just really isn't an offensive player period. On our team, with few scorers, none of them very good, he scores 14 a game. On a good team he would finish some fast breaks and take a couple open jump shots, missing more often than not, and that would be about it. You plug him into a good offensive team and he's probably a 4th-5th option. I mean, think about where he'd fit on the league's top ten offenses. On the Spurs he'd be the 4th option if traded for Jefferson, and he'd probably be a downgrade from Jefferson. In time, some of the players on their bench could develop into better scorers than he is. On Orlando he'd be a 4th option, maybe 5th behind a revitalized Turkoglu. On the Knicks he'd slot in to the Landry Fields role. On the Lakers, a 4th option, upgrade over Artest. On Denver, about a 5th option, behind Melo, Billups, Nene, J.R. Smith. Maybe on Dallas he's a third option, but can you really say he's clearly better on offense than Caron Butler? On the Hornets, he'd be a third option, upgrade over Ariza. On the Bulls, he'd be about a fourth option behind Deng. Jazz, fourth option. Thunder, third option, upgrade over Jeff Green. Houston, third option, fourth if Yao's healthy or if Brooks is having a good night. Obviously a fourth option on Miami, and probably the fourth option on the pre-trade Suns.

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Joe reply to Tray on Dec 28 at 16:56
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My issue with this statement is equating PPG with the impact a guy has on offense for his team. (which is how I read it) Iguodala can score 14 a game and be one of the best offensive players on a team because he can do a variety of things like getting a guy an open look, making a 3, getting to the free throw line, grabbing an OReb, getting out on the break, and even run the point well for extended periods of time if needed.

Iguodala is a very good offensive player. Scoring? That is a whole nother thing. And his impacts in almost every other area of the game are really, really good.

True. But there are times your best player just needs to score and score alot. There are times you're just gonna have to outscored your opponent. The title if this post is "Short on Firepower". Not "Short on assist" or "Short on being good in other areas".

Sorry, don't buy it (and that's the entire problem with people hating on Iguodala in my opinion.

ANdre Iguodala is not a scorer, he has never been a scorer, expecting him to suddenly become a scorer because the sixers don't have any others isn't his failing, it's a fans, and the sixers failing. Just because he's the best player doesn't mean he is the best scorer, nor should he be. It's not his skill set and it never has been an expecting it is an unreasonable expectation from both the organization and the fanbase that can't appreciate all that he does do.

The fault lies with the organization, not Iguodala

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Statman reply to Tray on Dec 28 at 17:43
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I agree. Iguodala just really isn't an offensive player period. On our team, with few scorers, none of them very good, he scores 14 a game. On a good team he would finish some fast breaks and take a couple open jump shots, missing more often than not, and that would be about it.

Just curious, are you discounting 07-08 and 08-09 when he finished with PPGs of 19.9 and 18.8 and did it efficiently? Because he did that as the primary scorer on a playoff team, and it wasn't just dunks and open shots (though he did have a better point guard setting him up). If you're making a statement about the present, there's less to disagree with.

He's discounting anything that contributes to offense aside from points

I don't think many people would complain if he was playing at the level he did in those years but he's regressed two years in a row. Why? It's getting hard for me to buy the "he just isn't a scorer" argument anymore. If that's true, why is he so hard pressed to want the ball at the end of the game? Where is that attitude in the second and third quarters? Does he flip on the "scorer" switch in those situations?

Name me a team where there best player isn't their leading scorer?

The Spurs and the Celtics, to start.

The celtics were the first team that came to my mind, Is Gasol 'better' than Kobe these days? Some argue he is.

(Who is the best player on the hawks?)

Pierce and Genobilli are the best players on both those teams.

Kevin Garnett is the best player on the Celtics and Tim Duncan is the best player on the Spurs.

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Steve reply to GoSixers on Dec 28 at 20:24
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Is that a joke? Garnett isn't even the second best player on the Celtics.

Unless the argument you're really trying to make is that your leading scorer is your best player.

Then yo probably think Joe Johnson is the best player on the hawks?

Disagree with both.

So - by your argument - David West is the best player on the Hornets?

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Joe reply to KellyDad on Dec 28 at 22:39
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Ok. Best players who aren't top scorers...

1. Atl - Al Horford
2. Bos - KG or Rondo
3. CHA - Wallace or Tyrus
4. CHI - Noah or Boozer
5. CLE - Varejo
6. DAL - Kidd or Chandler (Dirk is close as well)
7. DEN - Nene is right there. Close. I'll say one of DAL or DEN
8. DET - Ben Wallace (or TMac shockingly)
9. GS - Biedrins (or DLee historically)
10. IND - Dunleavy
11. LAC - Griffin
12. LAL - Gasol (or Odom)
13. MEM - Z-Bo
14. MIL - Bogut
15. MIN - KLove
16. NJN - Humphries
17. NO - Paul
18. NYK - Fields
19. PHI - Iguodala
20. PHO - Depends, but Nash is better than JRich
21. POR - Miller or Camby
22. SAC - Dalembert (I'd concede this, but Evans is much worse than last year and he wasn't god last year)
23. SA - Duncan. (Ginobli is close)
24. TOR - A hoard better than Bargnani
25. WAS - Javale McGee

Some are debateable. Dallas, Denver, New York, Phoenix, Sac, San Antonio all come to mind, but they are close.

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Tray reply to Joe on Dec 28 at 22:52
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Kidd or Chandler are better than Dirk? Humphries is better than Harris? Fields is better than Felton and Amare? Dunleavy's better than Hibbert... or anyone on that team, for that matter? Duncan's better than Ginobili? I mean, Duncan isn't even that great on defense anymore. Of course it's the case that your best player isn't necessarily your leading scorer, but that doesn't mean that it's (a) okay that Iguodala is our best player, as he isn't as good as a Gasol or Rondo, or that (b) you don't need a great scorer to win, even if that great scorer isn't your best player, or that (c) great scorers are easy to come by.

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Joe reply to Tray on Dec 29 at 9:42
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Even if you take away 9 of those choices and replace them with the top scorer, it is still the majority.

And some of those.... yeah. Humphries has been better than any other Net IMO. Dunleavy the same. The Fields thing isn't worth the argument probably, but his numbers are great. My argument against Ginobli is covoluted. I view him as the best SG in the game probably and Duncan as top a top 5 PF/C, but I think Duncan's effect on the game is still greater... has to do with "the short supply of tall people."

Is Lamarcus Aldridge better than Brandon Roy?

Does Brandon Roy have knees ?

Well if you believe ROy (and his people) it's not his knees, it's Andre MIllers fault :)

Right.

Brandon Roy with 2 knees is better than Aldridge. The current Brandon Roy, however, probably isn't.

Before Richardson got traded out of Phoenix he was leading the Suns in scoring, by 2 PG over Nash :)


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