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Minute Distribution and Production

Funny saying that EB is our MVP so far this season but it is true.


I was listening to the Sixers Beat episode that was recorded on the day that Eddie Jordan was fired and Tom Moore brought up a good point that Jrue never hit a rookie wall last year because he only started in the 2nd half of the season. Since he's projected to play the most minutes on this team this year, I worry that he will end up hitting that "rookie" wall at the end of this season. I'll be impressed if this team makes it to the playoffs and he still has his Legs.

The crazier thing is that he should legitimately be in the conversation for the All Star game. It's basically between these four guys, imo, at the PF position.

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Jason reply to Brian on Jan 5 at 10:44
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I've been very impressed with brand in the past few months, I was very critical of him at the beginning of the year when he was averaging around 18 ppg, but was trying to take his man 1 on 1 way too much and holding the ball far too long. I think Brand should get in over Bosh without question but won't due to hype. It's funny to say, but Brand has easily become one of the most underrated players in the league in terms of talent. Also I think that Brands game this year will translate well into his mid 30s if he can stay healthy he could still be effective.

Forgot Boozer. He's in there as well, just hasn't played many games.

I haven't looked at WS and WP closely before, but in perusing their definitions, I see that WP has a positional adjustment but WS does not. That would explain why Iguodala has the highest WP on the team, double his WS value, because SFs have a lower positional norm than PFs. It makes some sense to normalize to position, because that captures by how much a player outperforms his average opposition. However, that somewhat undervalues what Thad has done because he's usually going against reserve PFs (who would presumably have a lower positional norm than starters).

For the minute projections, if wins are the goal, it's good that two of the three most positive minute differentials belong to two of the three most productive players (Brand and Thad), but it's scary that the most positive minute differential belongs to an unproductive player (Meeks). I'd be shocked to see Meeks continue at his current minute level if he continues to shoot poorly (25 for his last 92 field goals, 10 for his last 47 on 3's). With that shooting, even the 17-20 minutes he's been getting the last three games is too much.

Yeah, positional weighting and a heavy value on rebounding are the main differences between WS and WP, I think. I was pretty sure WP would love Turner, which you can see.

This pretty much backs up a lot of what we've been talking about all year. Brand's resurgence, Thad, Jrue's progression. Those are the main reasons for the turnaround. Hawes and Nocioni haven't been good, but they projected to be negatives and they've been slightly positive, which makes a difference. Fewer minutes than I projected for Kapono, also a positive.

The Meeks experiment really needs to end, and soon.

The Meeks experiment really needs to end, and soon.

I remember that you and Derek had a Sixers Beat right after the first Boston game, and I think it was Derek who said "I'm pretty sure Meeks' shooting is unsustainable" (this was after he had gone 23-41 and 17-26 from 3 over the previous 4 games). Turns out that was the understatement of the year!

I wonder how Jrue would do in that role, for stretches at least. Of the starters, he's got the best pure stroke from deep, especially when he has time. If plays were specifically run to get him open looks from deep, with him running off screens, you'd have to think he'd be able to convert them at a higher rate than Meeks has since that hot start.

Well, Meeks is shooting 28% (22% from 3) since the hot start, so I think almost any shooting guard in the NBA could do better (well, maybe not Keith Bogans).

But I do think Jrue could flourish at shooting guard if he played alongside a good point guard. Thinking back to the recent past, I wonder how he would have done with Andre Miller. Miller dominated the ball, but he was really good at the pacing of the game and getting the Sixers into their offense quickly (something you only notice once it is missing).

Sixers are talkin' about playoffs:

http://ow.ly/3yFM4

Like the update.

Is it possible for Thad and Brand to keep this up all year?

The -0s in the tables are weird. I think that is a rounding thing?

Yeah, I just noticed that. I don't have the spreadsheet on this computer, I'll take a look when I get home.

The good news is even if Brand and Thad drop off some, we should have more Iguodala to make up the difference over the remainder of the season. Collins also seems to be learning his lesson pretty quickly w/ the guys who aren't producing, hopefully he gets the message on Meeks soon.

From Prestons twitter

"Absent from 76ers shootaround: Doug Collins (early onset of cold/flu) & Tony Battie (personal reason). Status for tonite not yet determined"


Yikes, a curry coached game potentially.

Ugh. Last I heard, Hawes is a game-time decision.

One thing that's sort of flown under the radar is exactly how bad Lou has been compared to last season. Maybe there's something to the theory GoSixers had about Lou being perfectly at home in Eddie Jordan's system.

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Jason reply to Brian on Jan 5 at 11:35
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I remember you posting how inefficient Arenas was compared to other players under a certain guideline. His inefficiency Could be a product of Eddie Jordans offense. Also Buy lou out, bench him, or trade him for similar contract for a street clothes player. Then sign a point guard that can actually back Jrue up, or just have ET run the point. I think that will be the key to this team making a playoff push and not getting swept in the first round.

Wednesday story: Sixers can't wait for some home cookin':

http://ow.ly/3yJZb

Evan Turner rotations Image

I put all 4 of these links just into one picture for ease, but here are the four links. ET/AI, ET/AN,JTI, JTN

I found this pretty interesting, I have been saying on here lately that I like the way Nocioni fits on offense -the speed of his decisions- and recall hearing an announcer a few weeks back say that Doug Collins learned that Evan Turner and Andres Nocioni can't play together as there isn't enough quickness on the wing and I think this proves that isn't the case.

I'm not saying that Nocioni is more talented than Iguodala, I think he leaves a lot to be desired for in terms of offensive talent so please don't try and argue that I am comparing talent between the two. Also the numbers are skewed to an extent because of Evan's hot streak, but I think before this stretch without ET/Nocioni they were still about +10 to 15 in less minutes.

Is Andres Nocioni the proto-type of what type of wing player the sixers should look for to play along side Jrue and ET in the future? I am not entirely too familiar with Gallinari but the little I've seen of him makes me think he could be the perfect fit.

Evan Turner rotations Image

I put the four rotations into one image for efficiency. The rotations are from http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/


I found this pretty interesting, I have been saying on here lately that I like the way Nocioni fits on offense -the speed of his decisions- and recall hearing an announcer a few weeks back say that Doug Collins learned that Evan Turner and Andres Nocioni can't play together as there isn't enough quickness on the wing and I think this proves that isn't the case.

I'm not saying that Nocioni is more talented than Iguodala, I think he leaves a lot to be desired for in terms of offensive talent so please don't try and argue that I am comparing talent between the two. Also the numbers are skewed to an extent because of Evan's hot streak, but I think before this stretch without ET/Nocioni they were still about +10 to 15 in less minutes.

Is Andres Nocioni the proto-type of what type of wing player the sixers should look for to play along side Jrue and ET in the future? I am not entirely too familiar with Gallinari but the little i've seen of him makes me think he could fit the mold. I'm not going to lie the thought of a JTG future is exciting.


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Jason reply to Jason on Jan 5 at 11:51
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Damnit, of course I butchered the image link, not like it was the most important part of the post or anything. Evan Turner rotations Image

Thats a little out of date, missing some of the road trip. I"ll try to get that updated today.

I actually want to take a closer look at that theory you have about Nocioni making quicker decisions. It's the type of thing where I need to see Iguodala play and focus on that. Just from recall, I don't think he spends a ton of time holding the ball and dribbling, but I could definitely be wrong.

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Jason reply to Brian on Jan 5 at 12:48
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The main difference that stands out to me is how much quicker Nocioni goes to the rim, he gets the ball and immediately goes which makes up for his lack of athleticism and quickness. Iguodala takes too long to go to the rim, if he was quicker we would see him be as effective as nocioni. Add the times he tries to create his own shot, take his man off the dribble and by trying to be a playmaker which is a positive attribute of his, but is one that I don't think is necessary on this team causes him to have the ball a lot more than nocioni.


If Iguodala were to turn his game into Nocini's, and basically be a 3 pt shot, quick drive or quick pass he would absolutely blow nocioni out of the water, but it's tough to expect Iguodala, the guy that the sixers have tried to make "the guy", to take a step back offensively for an under achieving rookie.

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Jason reply to Jason on Jan 5 at 13:02
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Also another thing about Nocioni that stands out to me is that he gets a lot of calls at the rim that Iguodala unfortunately would never get when he drives.

Yeah, this is unfounded. Nocioni attempts pretty much the same number of shots as Iguodala and gets to the line about half as much.

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Jason reply to Brian on Jan 5 at 13:10
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oops. Now i look even stupider. I swear though some of the calls that nocioni gets to the line on are just mind blowing, it looks like he barely gets any contact and Iguodala has to go in there and fight through pure maulage and still not get a call.

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Rich reply to Jason on Jan 5 at 13:42
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"If Iguodala were to turn his game into Nocini's, and basically be a 3 pt shot, quick drive or quick pass he would absolutely blow nocioni out of the water, but it's tough to expect Iguodala, the guy that the sixers have tried to make "the guy", to take a step back offensively for an under achieving rookie."

To be fair, Iguodala blows Nocioni out of the water anyway. I really think the Nocioni makes quicker decisions is not a big deal. As far as shooting goes, Nocioni ends possessions with 2 or 3 bad threes a game, and Iguodala shoots closer to 2 bad stepbacks a game. So that's no difference.

As far as usage rate goes, I was thinking about what you said the other night and how long Iguodala holds the ball and then gives it up. I thought about it, and I don't really remember him putting teammates in a tough spot with the shot-clock running out a whole lot. I could be wrong, but the Sixers don't strike me as a bad team offensively because Iguodala passes it. It seems more when he shoots the ball, which is part of his low usage rate.

I think the offense is bad when the team dies what I call "lazy possessions." They walk the ball up and Collins doesn't call a play and Jrue spends a while to get everyone organized and now there's 10 left on the shotclock and Jrue has to make something happen. That instance (however prevalent it is), is not on Iguodala.

Another stat here: The percentage of Iguodala's baskets assisted is at 57 percent this year, which sets a career high by a pretty good amount. That tells me, with his low usage rate, that he's not monopolizing the ball whatsoever when he's scoring. The other stuff we are just speculating on, but I found that interesting.

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Jason reply to Rich on Jan 5 at 13:56
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Alright i'm going to watch a recent Iguodala game, it feels like it's been a lot longer since he last played and i'm starting to fear that I may be wrong about Iguodala not being quick enough with decisions. More i think about it the stuff i'm commenting seems to happen late in the shot clock when Iguodala. That said there has to be something to ET/Nocioni being that much better than ET/Iguodala right now, right after I eat something i'll take a look at the game logs to see if there are some games that make the gap wider than it really should be.

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Rich reply to Jason on Jan 5 at 14:07
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I don't know if you are right or wrong about him making not quick enough decisions. I think in general he is, but that wasn't really the point. It's that you said Nocioni helps Turner play better, which is possible. You are right that Nocioni doesn't hold onto it for long, that's certainly true.

I think my point is that Turner should slip into that quick decision making role mold with Iguodala. If he's not gonna be a great playmaker (and he isn't right now at least), make your decision that "I am going at this guy when I get the ball." If Iguodala is going to be a better playmaker, then he probably should have the ball for a little longer. It might be one of those two way street things where they both have to scale things back a little. Iguodala's offensive game is far from perfect.

By the way, did the Dallas Basketball guy say that Iguodala "would halve" Caron Butler's value. Is that what I think it means or do I just have no grasp of the English language (entirely possible)?

Did he say that Butler is twice the player Iguodala is?

Hmmn...it didn't make any sense, but I took it to mean insurance would pay half of Butler's contract since he's done for the year. If we're even talking about the same report.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jan 5 at 13:56
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I'm talking about the little part of the one that you posted. I can't read it because I don't subscribe there, but that would make a lot more sense.

Yeah, that's what I thought. I'll go with my interpretation.

The way i understood it is Butler's injury halves his value because now he is just an expiring contract and before he was a guy you can plug into your starting lineup. The report didn't say anything about Iguodalas' value (at least the little part that i read).

From the Sixers' point of view, what does Dallas have to offer? I tried the following trade in the trade machine and it worked out:

Sixers send: Iguodala, Lou, Kapono (expiring)
Mavs send: Butler (expiring), Terry

Who says no in that deal? The Sixers get a legitimate 2-guard for the present (Terry signed for 2 years) and an expiring contract, freeing up time for Turner and Thad. The Mavs get the best player in the deal (assuming Iguodala isn't more hurt than what has been reported) and a Terry-light (Lou) for bench scoring.

But the Sixers don't get any young bigs, and I don't know that the Mavs have any assets like that to offer.

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Eric reply to Statman on Jan 5 at 15:58
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I think both teams would say no. It moves the mavs sideways because terry is very valuable in the mavs system, and the sixers only get cap relief without talent. How about this deal...

Sixers send Iguodala, Nocioni and Hawes
Mavs send beaubois, haywood and butler

Haywood is a little pricey, but he fills a desperate need as a defensive presence in the front court. Beaubois could be a good fit in the backcourt with turner, jrue and lou.

Meanwhile, the mavs get the most valuable player in the deal in iguodala, a solid backup center in hawes, and nocioni who can still contribute, and only has 2 years left in his contract.

I question if Haywood long-term too risky, and if beaubois can play next to jrue even though he is only 6'2. I'd pull the trigger though.

I wouldn't touch Haywoods contract, nor trade Iguodala for Beaubois (who is a Lou Will lite). Iguodala is a great fit for Dallas but unless it's a three team trade i really don't see anything that Dallas has that might help the Sixers in any way.

Terry by the way is untradeable for Dallas i guess, he is their go to guy in the 4th quarter in most games.

was going through the rotations and found this

http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/saved/327/

Iguodala and Thaddeus are a +9.8 per 48 mins together and overall a +66 together. That's absurd. Should Thad get a chance starting at the 4 and Brand at the 5?

Iguodala and Thad have always played well together, going back to when Thad was a rookie. Their strengths in the halfcourt are very complementary (Iguodala's court vision, Thad's ability to finish smoothly off a good pass). But Thad-Brand at the 4-5 raises questions about rebounding and defense ...

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CM reply to Jason on Jan 5 at 14:51
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Collins has been quoted as saying that he doesn't believe that a team can be that small and compete for sustained periods of time.

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Jason reply to CM on Jan 5 at 15:11
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Without this line up they wouldn't be competing at all lol. But i get that it is probably most effective in moderation.


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