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Get It Together

Story: Sixers' rotation changing again with Iguodala's return:

http://ow.ly/3DPSH

I think the Sixers will win tonight. They match up well with the Bucks, and they should come out with increased intesity.

on the flip side, Jrue is probably due for a downswing in his shooting and production. He's been consistently good over the past 10 games: nearly 20/8/4 and 54%/38%. Basically elite PG production. And I don't think its cynical to expect some more ups and downs this season.

To put it in perspective, in NBA history 90% of the players who put up even 1 season of 19.5/7.8/3.9 (Jrue's last 10 games) is a HOF player. Add in 50% shooting and you are now only looking at:

Wilt, Magic, CP3, MJ, Lebron, Oscar, Frazier and KJ.

And only 2 of those had multiple seasons (MagicX3, OscarX2.) So if Jrue put up 3 seasons at the level of his last 10 games he would be in the conversation with all time greats... All this to say that Jrue's recent play is probably not exactly sustainable right now, but gives you reason to dream...

Is KJ in the hall of fame?

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 10:34
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Nope. Thats why I said he'd have to put up 2 of those seasons. The overall list(without the FG% restriction) is really impressive.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 10:41
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=slWW2

I may have overstated the HOF rate. 37 of the 49 seasons were done by HOF players (like Cousey, Majic, MJ, Isiah etc.) Bump that to 43 of 49 if you think Paton makes he HOF.

The other 6 seasons: Westbrook, Rose, Lever, Baron, MR Richardson, Damon Stoud.

Check out that season for Wilt at the top of the list: 24.3 PPG / 23.8 RPG / 8.6 APG.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 11:03
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Oddly, of all current NBA players I'd say Love has the best chance to approach that type of season.

And by approach, I mean 20/25/5.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 11:08
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I meant 20/15/5. Sorry for the insane typo.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 11:07
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As for Jrue- do you think he has a 19.5/7.8/3.9 season in him?

I've been really impressed by his his scoring ability this year. On a bad team I can see him having and Iguodala like nearly 20 PPG season. But on a good team I expect he'll remain more of a distributor and score in the 17 ppg range.

or do you see more a Rose-like progression, where he becomes a 20 PPG guy as he gets stronger?

It's a really tough call. This isn't the first good stretch he's had this season.

He had a 9-game streak w/ 16.1/8.9/3.4

Then he had a 6-game streak w/ 16.3/5.7/4.5

And the current 10-game streak w/ 19.5/7.8/3.9

So 25 games (of 38) with 17.5/7.7/3.9 on 49% shooting, 39% from three.

The other 13 games are pretty bad: 9.7/3.8/4.8 on 35% from the floor and 26% from three.

What's the normal split for a young player learning the ropes? Basically, two thirds of his games have been good-to-great while 1/3 have been pretty bad, when you look at the streaks. Say he changes that to 3/4 good next season. What does a "superstar" have as a split, 9/10 games good?

Forgetting the stats, do I think he's got potential to produce the numbers he has over his past 10 for an entire season? Yes, I think he could definitely average the per-game numbers, but not the shooting percentage. I think he could get 20/10/4, maybe, if there wasn't a legit #1 option on offense elsewhere on the floor, but he'd have to up his usage rate which would have to drop his TS%. 53% from the floor isn't sustainable.

Whether or not that's good for the team is another matter. If his TS% is still solid and he's putting up numbers like that, then it's awesome. If he's taking 17 or 18 shots/game to get to 20 points, then it's probably not a good idea. Though the national media would probably dub him a superstar just for hitting those per game numbers. The assist totals are directly tied to the team getting a big who can finish, though. He's leaving a couple assists/game on the table just by playing w/ these bigs.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 12:04
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Jrue is not flashy enough to draw media attention unless the team is winning.

Name the Sixer who put up 20+/7.5/3 and 1.8 stl on 49%/46.5%3pt shooting... he certainly did not get any national attention.

Hersey Hawkins?

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Michael T reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 12:21
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Dana Barros?

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tk76 reply to Michael T on Jan 14 at 12:27
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Yep, Barros.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 12:36
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Crazy season.

The only player in NBA history to put up a season of 20/7.5/3 shooting at least 45% from 3pts.

He also shot 49% from the field and had 1.8 stl per game that season. Hit nearly 200 3′s and got to the FT line nearly 5 times per game hitting at a 90% clip.

The point being he was not seen as a star since he did this for a crap Sixers team.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 12:45
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I think we need to get Barros in the HOF, just based on that one season :)

Usage rate only 21%.
eFG% .632
TS% .575
197 3's at .464
347 FTM at .899

Forget inneficient Lou. We need another Dana.

And he sported that crazy haircut with the tail.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 12:26
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In the history of the NBA he, Bird and KJ were the only ones to have 20/7.5.3/49%, 40% seasons. And he was the only with a 3p% over 45%.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 11:26
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Part of it has to due with how much he is carrying the load. His numbers are much higher when Iguodala does not play. But I expect Iguodala to take more of a back seast as Jrue emerges.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 11:56
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17.8/8.6/4.1 50% when Iguodala is out.

Not "blaming" Iguodala as much as pointing out Jrue carries a bigger load running the offense when Iguodala is out.

Eh, I think those numbers are more coincidence than anything. He's had plenty of very good games w/ Iguodala in the lineup. The thing that's hurt his production the most has nothing to do with Iguodala, it's turnovers and foul trouble. Maybe w/ Iguodala in there, Collins has the ability to go to someone else for playmaking, which diminishes Jrue's role. Maybe there's something to that.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 12:28
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Ubless Iguodala is traded, we will see how Jrue does the rest of the year. If he averages 17/8/3.5 from here on out- with Iguodala playing, I'll be rather surprised.

Well, I mean it would probably be a bit of a shock if he averages that the rest of the way with or without Iguodala.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 13:23
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I'd expect about 17/7/3.5 if Iguodala is traded for a big.

Depends on the big. If he's traded for dwight howard, I'd expect 20/10/3 the rest of the way :) If he's traded for Kaman, then maybe 15/6/3.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 13:25
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It's more the efficiency that is not sustainable.

That does not mean Iguodala is "holding him back." More that without Iguodala the team would really need to rely heavily on Jrue for production.

Agreed. I'm hoping they're going to rely heavily on Jrue for production either way, to be honest. I also think Collins, and more importantly Jrue, are beginning to realize that.

There really aren't many PGs in the league who can handle Jrue's size and change-of-pace. He can get pretty much wherever he wants to on the floor w/ his dribble.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 13:38
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And historically Collin gets bigs seasons out of his guards. But I would not put Jrue in the MJ or Hill category anytime soon. But I think the extra work and attention will make him a better pro. Much like how Hill credits Collins (and Coach K) in teaching him to be a smart pro.

Jrue could actually be a good fit for team USA in the future, if his shooting holds up.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 13:50
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That's going to be really tough. I'm sure he's the type that coaches like (defense, shooting, good size) but their are so many high profile young PG's. He'll really need to be on a winning team and get some media attention to have any shot.

A guy like Westbrook or Rondo might not be as good of a fit in the international game (can't shoot), but they are not going to take Jrue over either of them.

But maybe he gets some FIFA Worlds chances.

Alright, since this thread has been all Jrue, all the time (not a bad choice by the way), let's do a little exercise. Give a scouting report on Jrue, one (or more) things he does very well and even improved on from last year, and something he needs to improve on:

1. His driving has been exceptional this year. I get frustrated when he doesn't pull-up from about 8 feet when there's a great shot-blocker in there (sort of like what Turner does), but he's made great progression there. Hoopdata shows that he's bumped up his percentage at the rim from 54 % to 62 %. That's also while getting to the rim 1.5 times more per game this year, which is impressive. In fact, of the 10 PG's that get to the rim more than Jrue, only Tony Parker and Rondo have a better percentage.

We talk about him having a feel for the game, and that's where it shines through. He is a really physical driver, who has great touch and an array of footwork moves.

2. There's a lot of spots he can get better, which is a good thing no doubt. I'll pick this one though: He needs to command the offense a little better. He runs it very very well, but I want to see him more vocal and decisive running it. His assist to turnover rate isn't awful, but there is room for improvement. Not really worrying about the numbers, focusing on why he's turning it over is more important. His turnovers seem like they don't need to happen, as if he HAS to pass the ball to a guy and picks up his dribble.

That's where being more in command will help, because Jrue often picks up his dribble way too early. I think he understands that it's not good to pound the ball which is admirable, but he's gotta see stuff when it isn't there and try and make a play. That's where these lazy turnovers (about 1 a game I would say), will vanish. He's actually very good at hitting people when he gets in the lane, where most PG's make a lot of their TO's.

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tk76 reply to Rich on Jan 14 at 14:21
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1. Needs to take command of close games. Partly on Jrue, partly Collins.

2. Although I like how he steps up to score when the team is in a drought, to often in involves a 20 ft jumper early in the shot clock.

3. Both Jrue and the team need to learn to make teams pay when Jrue gets doubled 25 feet from the basket.

Good topic.

If I'm putting together a scouting report on Jrue, two things I focus on:

1) Make him drive right. He's done a much better job with this recently, but he still favors driving left and especially finishing with his left. I'd force him to drive right whenever possible.

2) Trap him. Teams haven't done a lot of this, but they've had success with it. He needs to get the ball out of the double (out on the floor) quickly and the team needs to have plays designed to turn that failed pressure into easy looks. Not a huge sample size, but I'd make Jrue make those quick decisions early in the shot clock, under pressure. See if he can handle it. Even if you just get the ball out of Jrue's hands, that's a win for the defense, usually.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 14:44
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Trapping him usually does work. Now, is that on him or his teammates? His decision making is a little slow when he's trapped from what I remembered, but the Sixers are not a team of quick decision makers. I also think having a big that's intuitive enough to slip to the goal to a spot where Jrue's pass can split the double team would help immensely.

Doesn't having shooters really help when people get trapped? It seems to me like Rondo gets to run P and R with impunity.

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tk76 reply to Rich on Jan 14 at 14:47
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I agree with applying a trap. I'd also suggest attacking him with the P&R on the other end. Also maybe try and goad him into fouling.

Some of his fouls are so frustrating. The ones that really kill me usually happen on the P&R. He goes under, and sprints to cut the lane off to the driver, but makes a little bit too much contact when he gets in front of the guy. I swear it happens at least once/game. He doesn't even make much contact at all, but they always blow the whistle.

Don't most teams just go under the screen against Rondo? That's what I'd do, without fail. Of course, then you're relying on refs actually calling moving screens, otherwise it's a free pass to the hoop.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 15:00
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Yeah they do, but that doesn't take the ball out of his hands, and it actually helps him drive in some instances. If you trap him, which I would do if he was running the Sixers, he's got no one to quickly make him pay. On his team, they don't trap him because that involves playing 3 on 4 with Pierce and Allen being 2 of those guys.

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Rich reply to Rich on Jan 14 at 15:13
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It's kind of like this to me: Teams want the ball out of Rondo's hands, yet they also want him to be a scorer. You have to pick one or the other, so they don't trap and try to make him a scorer. I think that's because teams determine that the Celtics have other players that can really make you pay if you trap.

Jrue has trouble because right now: Teams want the ball out of his hands, and they want to take away his scoring. Trapping successfully accomplishes both of those initiatives. It's even better because the Sixers really don't space the floor with shooters that well. A quick decision and good pass out of the trap creates a 4 on 3 situation. The problem is that the Sixers don't have reliable long range threats so: 1. It's easier to cover the players like Thad who are all closer to the basket because they don't space the floor as well. and 2. It's not a total loss if a guy like Nocioni or Lou is wide-open for a three.

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tk76 reply to Rich on Jan 14 at 15:20
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I wonder if it has reached the point where team's #1 priority is to take the ball out of Jrue's hands.

That of course assumes:

1. team's actually game-plan the Sixers.
2. Team's realize that Jrue is their engine and best offensive weapon.

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Rich reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 15:36
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They probably say, "Let's keep it close till crunch time, and let Lou Wiiliams win the game for us."

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tk76 reply to Rich on Jan 14 at 15:47
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Philly has always had some questionable "closers."

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/71148/20110114/lawson_ready_for_increased_role_if_billups_is_traded/#

So with starters minutes and no star on the team...

How do you expect the Jrue/Lawson comparison to turn out for the remainder of the season (assuming both Billups and Melo are gone.) I think Lawson has an opportunity to put up even gaudier numbers than Jrue- but probably less wins.

Lawson will also get to team up with Favors going forward.

There's a maxim that the longer trade details are public and the trade doesn't happen - the more likely it is it doesn't happen. It has borne out quite a bit over time - I don't think Favors is going to Denver :)

BTW - rumor is that Jay-z is going to meet with carmelo this week - Jay-z is part owner of the nets HOW IS THAT NOT TAMPERING?

The NBA has some serious issues it needs to work on - tampering - players schemiing should be against the rules - and oh yeah - agents shouldn't be orchestrating deals.

But anyway - Lawson may end up being a great 'fantasy' guy - but Jrue's a better player (and defender)

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 14 at 16:56
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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 14 at 17:00
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If the framework of a deal is in place, then representatives of the team a player is headed to can discuss contract extensions. This pretty much par for the course for any "sign and trade" type deal. In fact, I expect Melo will 1st sign an extension with Denver (to get the max contract) and then be traded.

This is the same type of thing that happened when David Lee was traded (and resigned) to GSW or when Rashard Lewis was signed and traded to the Magic years ago.

Those situations are quite different as they were restricted free agents in the off season with no contract to a given team.

The way I see this - and how the NBA should treat it - is like MLB treats something like this - the deal is AGREED TO - completely - publicly - and the Nets are given a 72 hour window to agree to talk to Melo, officially.

But this deal isn't done - there's a 'framework' built on vapor and nonsense with rumors that Denver is still trying to get a fourth team - won't make the deal if they can't flip Harris to GSW...there's too many moving parts for this to be a solid finished deal - and thus NO ONE from the nets should talk to Carmelo (or his agent - agents are messing this up BIG TIME)

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 14 at 17:15
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So you think teams should not be able to negotiate an extension with a player before they trade for him? That seems like it would hurt all both parties involved.

Do you think the Phillies should have been forbidden to discuss an extension with Halladay? because from what I read, NJ/Det/Den have the framework of a deal in place- and it is only the Melo extension tap-danceing that has held things up.

In MLB you get a 3 day window - when the trade if 'officially' completed - like the mlb office has it and just needs to sign off on it - that's what i believe in - there's too many pieces here for it to fall apart - if you can't get an extension done in 3 days - he ain't signing - so yo udecide then.

And besides, there isn't even a negotiation (Unles they can give him a longer extension - i haven't seen anything on that - is this a MAX extension or could New Jersey offer more years or something - how's that work?) - it's a simple yes no question - there's so much buill shit going on in this deal it just stinks to high heaven - stern worrys about dress codes - he should worry about this - this whole morass of tampering is bad for the NBA

Typically, there's a 48-hour window or whatever one the deal consummated, for extension talks to take place.

And this is very different from the Rashard Lewis and David Lee situation. Those guys were free agents, and their current teams could sign them for more money than the new team. This isn't the case with Melo, in fact, if Denver signs him to an extension before the deal, it would screw up the cap implications (he'd become BYC immediately, I believe). But since he's under contract, if he's traded, the team that obtains him can extend him immediately, and go over the cap to do so. If that makes any sense at all.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 14 at 17:35
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Yeah. Got it.

And ps

It remains unknown whether Anthony will commit to signing an extension with the Nets if he is traded there. New Jersey owner Mikhail Prokhorov is confident that if he can acquire Anthony -- which would allow him to finally speak directly with the three-time All-Star -- he can convince Anthony on the merits of playing with the Nets

I've seen this report repeatedly. That Prokhorov thinks he can use his charm to convince Melo ti sign in New Jersey AFTER the deal is done - so why does Jay-z need to bother if rich russian owner seems willing to make the deal anyway.

Is it just me or does the Prokhorov guy seems more and more like the stereotypical russian business man / mob guy in every movement he makes right down to the stripper/model girl friend?

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 14 at 17:10
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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 14 at 17:11
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No - more like the guy who 'seems' like a business man but when you cut to the next scene you see him beating up a dealer for not giving him his fair share.

There's confident, and there's cocky - I think he falls into the second arena that sabotages (thankfully) teams like the redskins and cowboys cause of their crappy owners

That mini-giraffe is awesome.

So no one wants to reply to the Lawson part of my question? I thought that would stir up the hornets nest...

You know what I think. Lawson won't have coattails to ride, and he won't spend most of his time against backups. He'll be exposed on both ends of the floor.


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