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It seems the problem with our Sixers is that they are going with Lou in the last 5 mins because Collins thinks he's the best player to get off a good shot. He thinks he's the best one on one player on the team. Lou doesn't turn the ball over much, doesn't settle for threes and can get to the line at a good rate. Thing is, if you're relying on Lou to win games for you night in and night out you're team is in trouble. He's not good enough for that role.

Collins seems to totally forget who his best players are. Jrue, Iggy and Brand are seen as not good options on offense late in the game. that may be because Jrue turns the ball over a little to much and Iggy settles for jumpshots.

Brand is the one player who I dont understand is being frozen out. He gets good looks, rebounds the offensive glass and gets to the line. He's made big shots before and has a leaders attitude. He wants to be in that position to put the team on his back win the game. I dont think Collins has that confidence in brand to go to him.

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deepsixersuede on Jan 24 at 8:49
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I can't believe our coach is this dumb; there must be a logical explanation or numbers to back up his choice of who has the ball at the end of games. Is the team better cause Lou draws more attention up top? Is this a way to push Jrue to be great, like he seems to be doing with Marreese by sticking with Hawes?

As far as Lou goes, he seems to be passing more lately but why not let him attack from the wing?

The team essentially went from running late hame iso's for Iguodala to doing the same for Lou. We are talking years or late game Iso. At least since Andre Miller left (3 coaches ago) and probably longer.

Its partly an NBA team. Many teams run Iso's late- because they have one player who stands out. Atl probably iso's JJ more than anyone. While PG led team's can run plays, since putting the ball in their best players hands is the same as running the offense.

I agree they need to put the ball in Jrue's hands. Even if he fails, the team will be better for it long term. And as Brian has said- he can't do any worse :)

But I also see where Collins is coming from. The team lacks the experience and skill to execute down the stretch. It is much harder to generate a quality shot through plays against a hyper-focussed defense than it is earlier in a game. And the Sixers are not the only young team to struggle in these settings: http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/71292/20110123/granger_blames_inexperience_for_inability_to_close_out_games/

So if you worry that set offense will fail to generate a shot, than you iso you best 1 on 1 player because at least the ball will be in a scorers hands... Again, I'd rather it be Jrue. And I think moving Jrue to SG late hurts the defense even more than the offense- but I can see the other side. And regardless, they will struggle closing games.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 24 at 9:27
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"team" should read "thing"

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 24 at 9:29
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Wow, my grammar, spelling and punctuation is terrible early in the morning. Any chance we can start editing our posts, because I'm often too lazy to proof-read.

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deepsixersuede reply to tk76 on Jan 24 at 9:40
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It seems our defensive minded coach goes against character by playing Lou late and getting stops should be his main focus. The sooner Turner can close games the sooner we start winning close ones hopefully. An end of game lineup minus Lou and Thad should increase our getting stops potential bigtime, especially if Battie is at the 5.

Yeah, I actually said something about this in the game thread Saturday night. The Sixers were up by like 13 points with 4 minutes left and Lou was still in there. I don't get that at all. If you climbing back into a game, then fine, if he thinks Lou is a key to getting scores I might not agree, but I see the logic. But when you're protecting a healthy lead, get a defensive lineup in there. Turner should've been in the game for Lou. Going offensive w/ a lineup in that situation is very Eddie Jordan.

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deepsixersuede reply to Brian on Jan 24 at 10:35
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Worse case go the L.B. route with offense for defense switches; he was good at that.

I agree that Collins must be thinking that team will get a better shot by running an isolation rather than trusting them to execute a play against a prepared defense.

To get good looks against late game defense, you've gotta execute - discipline in sticking to a plan has not shown to be a strength of this group, as evidenced by their late game follies on the other end of the court (bad fouls, bad switches).

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tk76 reply to CM on Jan 24 at 11:00
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So that leaves a few options:

1. Isolate Jrue.
2. Execute and fail... with the hope that it helps them later.

At this point I guess I'd go with #1, and try and work #2 over time.

The "right choice" would be to run a pick and roll with Jrue and a big. But I'm not sure that big is on the roster. It could be Speights, but he can't make good defensive decisions (but at least he can secure a rebound.)

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deepsixersuede reply to tk76 on Jan 24 at 11:19
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If Elton is at the center spot next to Thad either he or Thad in a pick n pop with Jrue should get a good shot for somebody. Even Turner will probably need screens to get a good look so that should be the focus now. And Brand and Spieghts would also be a good option over iso's.

#1 is the short sighted view in my opinion

#2 is more important to the long term success of the sixers - and Jrue - even this year - cause come playoff time - Lou is going to get bitchslapped as the refs allow the more physical teams (ala the boston celtics) to commit more non called fouls than they do in the regular season

d'oh - stupid sign in function - that was meant to go to TK76

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 24 at 11:29
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Why would giving the ball to Jrue on an iso up top be bad? He's a good scorer who can pass. While if you run a play the ball might stop in the wrong player's hands.

It wouldn't be bad - compared to iso lou

But the whole iso principle in the last 5 minutes, it's just stupid to me - basketball doesn't change - if the defense know's you're going to go to iso's - and who - it's easier to defend - stop a guy stop the team.

If something was working for 43 minutes - why won't it work for 43+-48 minutes?

It's like the equivalent of the prevent defense

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 24 at 11:56
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It is harder to execute in the final 5 minutes because the defense is "trying." That's not to say you can't up your offensive focus to compensate...

When I use double negatives I feel like Donald Rumsfeld.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 24 at 11:58
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More Rumsfeld:

Do I think they should run set plays? Yes, I do.
Will that make them more successful on the field? Not necessarily. But if you don't fail, then success is not less likely, in a strategically meaningful way.

See, this is where I disagree. Well, I think I do anyway.

In the final minutes, the defense is definitely more focused. There's no doubt about that, but they aren't suddenly impenetrable. Basically, what you have is a set defense who maybe has more ability to shut something down. Say Brand's been killing them all game. In the final stretch, they may double Brand, get the ball out of his hands. If the P&R has been killing them, they may decide on a hard double instead of a soft hedge. They can focus on stopping what's been beating them throughout the game, take away your plan A.

Of course, then you have to be good enough. Or more accurately, your playmaker needs to be good enough to go with plan B or plan C. Instead, the Sixers just skip right to plan D, which is essentially a contested jumper more often than not. Maybe a 0.8 point possessions, on average.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 24 at 12:20
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Yep, that sums it up nicely.

Although I prefer Rumsfeld speak.

Although I prefer Rumsfeld speak.

I prefer FOrrest Gump Speak - it's smarter

I realize this is kind of absurd, but think about the Sixers as the late 80's pistons for a second. Jrue is Isiah, Lou is Vinny "the Microwave" Johnson. The Microwave would come in and fill it up for long stretches, carry the offense, but when it came to crunch time, there was no question who was getting the ball.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Jan 24 at 12:57
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Lou is a whole lot closer to "the microwave" than Jrue is to Isiah... but I see what you are saying.

But overall, I'm against any parallels comparing the current Sixers with a prior Pistons team. If anything they most resemble the current Pistons (past his prime big, PG who is bigger and lacks pure PG skill, gunner off the bench, bigs who can score but can't defend...)

And another.

Different game back then, obviously.

Although I do think Jrue would've been better with the old hand-checking rules. He would've kicked the crap out of opposing, smaller PGs.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 24 at 13:18
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Hah. Usage, pts/36, asst/36, TOV/36 and eFG% all nearly identical. Although Lou is more like a taser than a microwave.

Now lets see Jrue v Isiah... never mind. Even Isiah at 20 was impressive:

http://bkref.com/tiny/EsrxN

Jrue's numbers are better at 20.

The comp I put above is Jrue now vs. Isiah the year they won the championship.

Again, though, much different game especially for perimeter players.

If Lou can do what he does now for 13 years - no one will compare him to johnson - because of the team johnson was on - so is johnson 'over valued' because of who he played for or is lou better than some of us think?

Different game. Harder for perimeter guys to score. I think Lou would've been useless back then, the Microwave might've been much more effective today.

Also, I'm not really sure the microwave is thought of in that good of a light, is he? Just the nickname stuck.

The biggest problem I have with Lou being on the floor late isn't even the isolations. I'm more bothered by the overall negative from shifting Jrue to SG.

It means you go from having a decent defender at PG (Jrue) to having over-matched defenders at PG(Lou) and SG(Jrue.)

I guess that if you are trailing then bringing Lou might spark the offense for a few possessions. but even then,you need stops.

If the sixers have a lead - of 3 or more - Lou shouldn't be on the floor - run Jrue Evan and Iguodala - and doug probably would throw thad and brand out there - having brand as your 'close out center' is a bad idea - but it's what Doug likes to do.

Lou can't defend a paper bag

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 24 at 12:54
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Didn't one of your links show that the Brand/Thad/Iguodala/Meeks/Jrue line-up had the 3rd best adjusted +/- in the league?

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TruePhan reply to tk76 on Jan 27 at 22:06
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That's not true. Jrue has matched up well defensively against some pretty good perimeter players. He defended Kobe his rookie year and did it pretty well. Lou obviously is just very awful defensively though. Hell, he can't even do the only thing he can do all that well either. He's a so-so shooter and that's really about it.


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