DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan

All  

Sixers

, all the time

A Quarter You'll Never Forget

Let's not start a trend of symbolic player of the game.


Iggy Should the player of the game, 12 pts 11.5 possessions, 9 assists 8 rebounds. His defense set the tone for the 3rd quarter onslaught. He also didn't have a single turnover in the 4th quarter.

if we want to go symbolic let's go Craig Brackins, didn't cause a turnover, wasn't responsible for the loss, hell he wasn't even on the floor, he's not contaminated with this loss.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 0:54
+/-

Why not Meeks? He hit the most important shot of the night and wasn't awful shooting the ball tonight. I seriously can't fathom how Lou could be the player of the game when he made some unbelievably stupid plays in crunch time. He got bailed out by Battie making a shot that he had no business taking in the first place. He missed a key free throw.

I'd say definitely either Meeks or Dre have to be the player of the game.

Oh, and I definitely take back all credit I gave Collins yesterday. Why in the hell was Lou in for the majority of the 4th quarter? Why?!

Thad in the 2nd half -16
Lou Will in the 2nd half -20

Phenomenal job by our bench tonight huh?

Collins is really starting to annoy me with some of these substitutions. Iguodala was killing memphis in the 3rd and yet Collins takes him out after 8 minutes? Hey coach, you ever think of keeping the best player on the court in the game, push the lead out of reach, and then you can rest him for most of the 4th quarter?! Guess not.

This is a response to TruePhan about meeks being POTG, i made it a new response because of how much I like the stat.

Meeks hit 5 2nd half 3 pointers. All 5 of them were off of Iguodala assists.

Break down of all Iggy's assists, 6 of assists lead to 3s, 2 of his assists lead to a slam dunk+layup, and one of his assists led to a 16 ft jumper for ET wide open for a total of 24 pts created off of his assists.

1st: no points off of Assists, slow start for everyone.
2nd: 7 pts (3 assists
3rd:9 pts (3 assists)
4th: 7 pts (3 assists)

and you were saying his playmaking isn't needed :)

I know the comment was out of jest. But I think very highly of Iguodala as a player, I think that gets lost in me debating the necessity of Iguodala on the sixers. My hope would be if the sixers traded Iguodala and got a shooter to play on the wing, that the offense created by Iguodala would not drop off as both ET/Jrue would be able to create in opportunities that Iguodala currently does.

Just to further conclude my thoughts on Rudy Gay/Iguodala, which isn't really specific to the two players.

I value a good shooter with the ability to create a shot more than I do playmaking and Defense. Very few players in the NBA can provide you that, I believe you can fill the team up with players that can provide you playmaking and Defense as there are many players that that can provide that. But when it comes to shooting/creating a shot for oneself, its a very thin herd.

Holy redundancy. Should read "many players can provide playmaking and defense" not a sentence filled with 3 different variations of that /finished for the night.

Gay didn't do a whole lot of creating shots for himself tonight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yrdg9GhC_n0

Rudy Gay created a shot for himself at least 3-4 times that I can think of off the top of my head. His height/length really is a huge mismatch and he can extend well over whoever is defending him.

/Guess i'm not finished

16 points on 18 possessions, without a single double team sent at him all night.

Iguodala was guarding him. Also i can go through IGgy's game log and find some less than flattering games offensively, defensively etc.

I like Rudy Gay, this is why i'm incredibly high on Perry Jones, he's Rudy Gay athletic, but 3 inches taller. If he develops a shot like Rudy Gay he's going to be a mix of Durant scoring with Gay athleticism. I will laugh, cackle, kick my feet in the air when a team passes on him.

user-pic
TS reply to Brian on Jan 29 at 1:30
+/-

Those two shots Gay hit looked like the prayers that Iggy usually throws up in a crowd in crunch time, only his miraculously went in. That throw-in dunk/shot/whatever it was, was mind-blowing though.

God damnit, now i'm going to go rewatch the game just to show you how even when in a crowd of players he's able to elevate and get off a clean look.

user-pic
TS reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 1:41
+/-

Well he gets off a clean look on the dunk b/c Brand decided to recoil in horror instead of stepping up and challenging the shot. It's actually hilarious. He thinks about it for a sec, then turns away.

Ok fine, let's nitpick why someone created their own shot. I'm sure there's someone out there that creates a shot that is indefensible. I'm sure no one ever benefits from a defensive mistake. I'm sure creating your own shot has nothing to do with finding weakness in a defense and creating your own shot. You're right, Fuck brand.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 10:14
+/-

That's why I said either Dre or Meeks.

About the whole "Gay vs. Dre" thing, do you have any idea how badly Gay would do in the East? It's fine for him out West because skill is more important than defense but he'd be like Granger without the defense. In the East, Dre is exactly the player you want, you just wish he would offensively consistently be the way he's been the past few games. Turner's the one who can create his own shot. Hell, so can Dre, pretty damn easily actually. Infact, Gay's offensive game is a lot like Iguodala's. He just happens to be more offensively polished when it comes to shooting.

Every time Dre creates his own shot with a jab-step or other impressive move, he's bitched about by "fans", yet when somebody like Durant or Granger or Gay or Carter or really anybody but Dre does it, it's because "they're such a great player that they can get that seperation and hit the shot." There's so many bullshit double-standards for him.

Personally, I'd like to see Turner be the 6th man next year(I'm talking Ginobli sixth man, not barely plays 6th man) if he doesn't learn to play off the ball because it really suits his game. People talk about Dre and Jrue and Turner cancelling each other out but that's not how it is at all. Jrue is the one who starts the offense. Dre is somebody who simly needs to get the ball second just because he's a guy who looks to create for others first, and Turner is a guy who you can go Jrue to Dre to him with and he can be that guy to create his own shot and score. That's when the offense works. The problem is when the guy Dre or Jrue creates for gets chickenshit and either drives a foot and passes awkwardly instead of driving or shooting, or dribbles the air out of the ball and the shot-clock expires.

Heather Cox is giving additional analysis on Kevin Garnett hitting Channing Frye in the junk.

Kevin Garnett is a bitch
Kevin Garnett has always been a bitch

Do you need anything deeper than that?

Turnover-happy Sixers once again fail at finish:

http://ow.ly/3Mpg5

Ugh. I can't wait until this team has a center, we haven't had one since Moses Malone. Spencer Hawes makes Shawn Bradley look like Wilt. Good God.

Here's a trade I'd do, probably have to include a pick to someone in the deal, though.

Leaves you with this rotation:

C: Gortat, Biedrins, Speights
PF: Brand, Thad, Speights
SF: Turner, Thad, Nocioni
SG: Curry, Lou, Meeks, Turner
PG: Jrue, Curry, Lou, Turner

you'd be tying up a ton of money in your starting and backup centers, but put them together and you've got a legit shotblocker/rebounder on the floor at all times.

GSW gets a better fit to go along w/ Ellis, and they aren't really paying that much more money for AI9 than they were for Biedrins/Curry. PHO gets out of the remainder of Gortat's contract. The Sixers get Curry and a starting center. Biedrins contract is the cost of doing business.

That's a great trade, and really not that unreasonable for any side. You can easily find a PF through draft or MLE that is good enough to replace Brand, hell could be Thad/Speights capitalizing in a system with Curry on the wing.

After Gortat's recent explosion as a double double and a true center. Sixers would probably have to send Thad to Phoenix. Brackins to GSW. Maybe have to give a 1st to one of the 2 teams. I'd still do it.

Yes, I don't see PHO dumping Gortac for expiring only.

Good

let them over pay thad - bonus

Well, if this deal went down without giving up thad, we'd be over the Cap and mine as well overpay Thad a few extra million just to keep his talent on our bench.

But I do get what you're saying, and I've slowly been starting to agree with you, Thad shouldn't be resigned. There is a 0% chance he'll ever be able to defend the 3.

The problem of course (as always) is that at this time Comcast seems to think of the luxury tax ceiling as their own 'hard cap' - can't go above it.

Then that's on comcast, we as fans shouldn't just lie over and die when our owners aren't willing to pay a few extra million to try and win.


I think you are the WFC ADJ, and also employed by Comcast to try and get us to accept shitty owner-hood. Fight the power!

I think you're a bit bonkers myself - maybe smoke less crack or something.

Point is - usually I avoid the trade machines because I take the owners (seeming) motivations into account.

Why would Phoenix trade Gortat for an expiring? Because they still stink and the practical thing for them to do is shed salary and maximize value for Nash while he still has some.

There's very little fans can do to control what ownership does - the sixers are currently the worst in home attendance - how can it get worse?

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to Brian on Jan 29 at 10:53
+/-

I would faint if that deal could happen. If Sarver wants cap relief enough, maybe he'd be stupid enough to agree to it. I don't know JACK about Lance Blanks...but I would think that - from a player production standpoint - how you could sell that deal to the players.

We would have a lot of money tied up in our frontcourt...but we would have a legit frontcourt at least. I think I would actually just do Iggy for Curry/Biedrins...I know the deal tilts to GSW, but I think the fit is good.

I wonder if we could steal Sam from the Kings...and whether he would give Collins a legit chance to sell him on what he is doing. From a strictly VALUE standpoint, that is probably a better deal...it gives us a legit low-post presence and gives JTI some more time to try to figure it out.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to bebopdeluxe on Jan 29 at 12:27
+/-

I know that back when Gortat was in Orlando, there was some talk on this board of a Gortat-for-Lou deal...if Phoenix is not looking for simple cap relief, I wonder if they could be talked into that one...or perhaps we could figure out a 3-way deal with another team that might want Lou...

user-pic
TruePhan reply to bebopdeluxe on Jan 29 at 22:07
+/-

I'm sorry but are you kidding me? Have people completely forgotten how awful Sammy really was? Not only was he pretty damn quick to shoot but he was one of the softest, most unskilled big men I have ever seen. He was with the Sixers since 2001 and yet he never learned to properly defend, rebound, or do anything really.

He's anything but a legit low post presence.

user-pic
Adam B. reply to Brian on Jan 29 at 12:25
+/-

Ummm why does PHX want out of Gortat's contract? He's their only big man - they would never do this trade without at least our first round draft pick included

Phoenix only does this deal if they accept that they stink, have no future, and need to trade nash now while he has any (but little due to his age) value left.

The Suns are headed towards a cliff - and they should start saving money where they can.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to Adam B. on Jan 29 at 12:28
+/-

I would think about Gortat for cap relief and a protected 1.

He's on the verge of turning 27, I don't think they'd trade him for expirings anymore. His value has to be higher than just expirings around the league. But to trade Grotat for someone like Thad, whose only 22 I believe they would.

Except it violate the (asinine) tenet - don't trade height for less height

When you're a running team, you can trade Height for athleticism. :)

When I'm running a team i'll trade height for not height if it makes sense

I'll trade within conference, even division, if it makes sense to make my team closer to contending for a title.

To me there are so many ridiculous tenets that hinder a team.

Did they sing Kumbyeya?
The Suns found a way to have a common center at practice on Thursday. Players and coaches gathered at midcourt and sat in a circle with Managing Partner Robert Sarver and President of Basketball Operations Lon Babby. Each took a turn sharing what he and the next man could do better to help this 20-24 Suns team. "Keep plugging away and keep trying to get better, compete a little bit harder," coach Alvin Gentry said of the messages. Arizona Republic

I coulda sworn i saw a quote on front page saying

"What does Gay Athleticism look like"

re: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yrdg9GhC_n0

Didn't mean to say Gay Athleticism, I do my best to always say Rudy Gay to avoid that, but i got into a rhythm.

iguodala not the player of the game is a fucking slap in the face.

are you fucking kidding with me brian? jesus christ man break down some more fucking stats

user-pic
Court_visioN on Jan 29 at 2:46
+/-

man it's iguodala's bday, brian, give him some slack! POTG!

He also appears to be missing his neck. Can't you find it in your heart to give it to the poor guy?

user-pic
William on Jan 29 at 5:45
+/-

Have you guys noticed iggy's body language this season? Even when they are winning, he doesn't seem completely satisfied and/or happy for extended periods of time. I'm always amused by that because he's part of the problem. But I get the feeling he doesn't want to be traded, I think that's his personality. Ever since he's been with the sixers, especially since a.i. left, his interviews have always been serious, not really excited about anything. I listen to the the other teams commentators on league pass a lot and when they were going through that 3-13 stretch in the beginning of the year, they used to talk about how bad it was and how much it looked like he didn't want to be there. But since they've been playing better, it looks the same way. Also this is the first time I've ever seen him rtry to be a leader to his teammates on the court all year. I think he wants to stay here and win, but is frustrated with the losing and all the hating from the majority of the fan base. He is what he is, which is a very good, but not great, player. What do you guys think?

user-pic
TruePhan reply to William on Jan 29 at 10:01
+/-

Exactly how is he "part of the problem"?

Also, I don't what team you've been watching for the past however many years because he's always been the guy to talk to Jrue or Turner or Thad or Speights unless it was a position-specific thing. Every time Turner or Jrue get upset by a bullshit call, he's the one telling them to get their heads back in the game.

user-pic
William reply to TruePhan on Jan 29 at 10:38
+/-

Him not being a consistent scorer is part of the problem. This guy should be at least a 20 ppg like him, and he's our best player. But I think at this point in his career he should be a better scorer. He's blOwn games too buy missing free throws and questionable fouls as well. That being said, I think they should keep him. He's a unique talent. A couple of his teammates have said this is the first time he has talked them up consistently since he's been there. Brand seems to be the vocal leader of the team

Your premise is flawed that he 'should be' a 20 ppg scorer. It's tired premise too

user-pic
William reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:02
+/-

Tired, flawed, whatever...... It's a "team" and my point is that he's contributed to these blown leads, he just didn't do it last night. Brand has been their most consistent player. Different coaches, bad coaches, which led to the issues they are having now. It's part of the growing process. Very young team with their best player at times that seems uncomfortable with being the leader at times. It'll get better for this team, before it gets worse based on the effort and talent they have.

My point is that Iguodala haters seem to ginore the flaws of others and focus ONLY on Iguodala flaws as opposed to his strengths as well.

Pointing out '20 ppg' categorizes you as a hater to me

user-pic
William reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:14
+/-

How is that hating? Management is paying him like the "franchise" guy. In a previous post I said keep the guy. With the talent he has, I think he should be more of a consistent scorer, not hating, a fact. The point is that I would like him to be more consistent in his offensive game. He has the talent to be a 20 ppg scorer and also to be the main go 2 guy. In fact at this point he should be.

Management is paying him what they chose to pay him - that's on 'management' - not on Iguodala.

As for expecting Iguodala to be something he isn't, never was, and never will be, that's on the fans who think that a sudden pay raise means a guys game should suddenly change.

Where was all this 'man Iguodala is so cheap right now it's awesome' stuff when he was on his rookie deal when he was one of the best bargains in the game.

Expecting his game to change just because his salary level changes is ludicrous. He's not a primary scorer, never has been, it's not his game, and forcing him to try and be a primary scorer is bad for him AND for the team he's on.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to William on Jan 29 at 13:33
+/-

This is Iguodala's fundamental flaw...and what separates him from the TRUE #1 options in the NBA...here's the situation - down 1, 45 seconds to go, Sixers ball...you call a play for your #1 guy - Iguodala - who is being defended by a solid on-the-ball defender (say, Paul Pierce)...

How will Igoudala score the ball?

Can he come off a couple of screens to get a jumper, like a Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton (or Steph Curry)?

Nope.

Can you run a 1-4 set and iso him at the top or the wing, where he can use his size and handle to break down his man like a DWade, Kobe, Dirk, etc...?

Nope.

I am NOT an Iguodala hater. I recognize that he is not being paid #1 guy money...he is being paid #2 guy money...but, since we don't have a #1 guy (which is NOT HIS FAULT) we either give to somebody who is an even less appealing option (Lou) or we force him to try to do it...and then we get pizzed that either 1) he can't do it and/or 2) he gets paid a lot of money and he's not that guy.

If we can find a true end-of-game option (which I think - on this team - probably has to be Turner...or maybe Jrue in a year or two), then all of the fabulous things that Iguodala brings to the team can flourish...and he really can be that uber-glue-guy that helps you win. But if we DON'T have that end-of-game guy on this team (which you simply MUST have to win in the NBA), and you can move Iguodala to either get that guy (Curry?) or get cap room to reposition the team to get that guy, then - as much as I like Iguodala's game - you have to think about moving him.

Now...is that being a "hater"?

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to bebopdeluxe on Jan 29 at 13:36
+/-

Wow...Jem and I saying basically the same thing...

Pretty fucking scary.

;-)

user-pic
TruePhan reply to bebopdeluxe on Jan 29 at 22:25
+/-

You have absolutely no clue what the hell you are talking about.

There is NO SUCH THING AS A #1 OPTION. This is not football. Seriously, fuck fantasy basketball and fuck all of the idiots who know nothing but stats and cliched terms. Basketball is a game of roles, of plays. Teams that win championships rarely have one guy they go to. That rarely works out. Just ask the Laker teams from when Shaq left to when Kobe finally started playing the game right in '08. The Sixers had one for years. How did that work out for them? There are plenty of "superstars" who don't take their teams anywhere because they can't do anything but score. The good teams(like the Spurs or the Pistons) have multiple players who can win the game, like the Sixers do and will have as this team grows.

There are no flaws to Iguodala's game. He is what he is. He could easily score 20 a game but he doesn't get the ball enough to do so. The only way a guy like him scores 20 a game is if he's like LeBron and has the ball in his hands the majority of the time, either to create for others or score, so that his natural feel for when to score and when to create comes out naturally.

Also, when you use internet terms like uber, it's extremely hard to take you seriously.

user-pic
Tray reply to TruePhan on Jan 29 at 22:28
+/-

Uber's a Nietzsche term/German word, not an Internet term.

Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant (on the Kobe/Gasol Lakers) and Hakeem Olajuwon were all clear-cut #1 options for championship teams.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to Tray on Jan 29 at 23:02
+/-

First of all, I'm well aware of uber's origins thanks. He wasn't using it as anything but an internet term though. You're not schooling anybody.

Second, there is a huge difference between a dominant post player and a "#1 option" combo guard or forward.

Also, the Spurs didn't have a "#1 option" in any of their championships, not Duncan, not anybody. The ball went to whoeever it went to and just like with Brown's teams, it was plays that won championships, not players.

The Lakers were horrible in the Finals last year, especially Kobe. They won because of being bailed out by clutch shots from Artest or others, or put-ins.

As for Jordan, well he was a special player and there hasn't been another like him since. He's the exception, not the rule.

user-pic
tk76 reply to TruePhan on Jan 30 at 10:21
+/-

I can't remember the term for this type of fallacy in reasoning:

Claim: You generally need a truly elite player on your team to win a Championship.

Counter: Lots of great players fail to win championships.


What kind of reasoning is that? There is a name for it, and it drives me batty. Just because great players lose it does not mean you can win without them.

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Jan 30 at 10:25
+/-

A more reasoned counter would be: here are the examples of teams that have won without superstar players...

Although I do get that you are saying that stars like Duncan or Kobe work within the framework of a complete team. But without that type of superstar the whole "team concept" and "balance"does not get you very far. Its a big difference between basketball and some other sports.

And to try and compare Iguodala to Lebron... really?

Its like saying since they both were 15/5/5/ guys last year that they are equivalent. even if one was 15/5/5/ and the other was 28/8/8.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to tk76 on Jan 30 at 10:37
+/-

Yes...guys like Duncan and Kobe work within the framework of a team game...but in game 5 of the conference finals, with the score tied and 45 seconds to go, the team who has a player who can SCORE THE BALL (or disrupts the opposing team's defensive set because of their dominance - thereby providing opportunities for their teammates) is the team that has success in those situations.

Even the Pistons' team that is frequently cited as the "non-star" team that has success still had some pretty good end-of-game options...Rip off of screens...Prince was a late game isolation nightmare (ask Aaron McKie)...Billups was no slouch, either.


user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to Tray on Jan 30 at 10:00
+/-

Thanks for having my back, bro. He knows EXACTLY what I was trying to say.

With the exception of the Pistons, virtually every dominant team in the NBA over the past 25 years has had a #1 option...a guy who you can give the ball to in the guys of the game that can get his shot or get to the line. A guy who can impose his will on the other team. A guy who demands double-teams.

In my opinion, Andre Iguodala lacks that essential quality to his game.

That is not a knock on him. He is a fine basketball player who brings a lot to the table. He is simply not a guy who - IMO - can CONSISTENTLY win games for you with his offense in the guts of the game...especially in May and June.

Of the top 10 teams in the current NBA standings (in order: SA, BOS, CHI, LAL, MIA, DAL, OKC, NOH, ORL, ATL), the only team that does not have what I would call at least one elite closer is the #10 team is Atlanta...and I would still put Joe Johnson materially above Iguodala in terms of his offensive skill set. And even if you want to say that Iggy is JJ's equal, that speaks to what I think the ultimate ceiling of this team is as currently constituted...a team that could win a series, but that's about it.

Now...if somebody like Turner or Jrue could turn into a closer, then perhaps the ceiling is higher for this team with Iguodala. While I hope this could still happen, if Thorn thinks that he can get a guy who has "closer" potential for Iguodala (like Curry), then - based on the demonstrated need for this team to find a closer - because that is how historically and currently that teams in the NBA win in May and June - then he should consider it...because right now, I don't see that guy on this roster...and IMO, I don't think that Iguodala can be that guy.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to TruePhan on Jan 30 at 9:39
+/-

I think I have found someone who makes Jem look gracious.

Who the FUCK are you telling me that I "have no clue what I am talking about"? Lemme clue you in on something, skippy - this is an INTERNET FORUM...and until you show me your plaque at the Basketball Hall of Fame, you can back the hell off on absolutist comments about my knowledge of basketball. I'm not going to sit here and flex my basketball background, but the bottom line is it is MY OPINION...and it is as valid as yours, Brian's or anybody else that posts here.

Second, if I want to use the phrase "uber" in making a point (which - if you are the reasonably intelligent guy that you appear to be - you should be able to put into context relative to the point that I was trying to make), then I will...with no deragatory commments from you or anybody else.

I don't post here a lot...so I really don't know your deal. I have no problem getting into heated debates with people whose OPINIONS I disagree with, like, say, Eddie's Heady's constant ripping of everything and anything Evan Turner...I may even tweak his nose a little...but the crap that you just put in your post - questioning my basketball knowledge, making fun of the words that I use in a post - are WAY over the line and reveal you as just another insecure internet bully.

If you want to debate CONTENT, I'm up for it. If you're gonna be an asshole, just ignore my posts - OK? I'll do the same with your posts.

Thanks.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to bebopdeluxe on Feb 3 at 12:50
+/-

You're a fucking loser, kid. You're just another loser on the internet talking out of his ass about sports when he has no place doing so. Don't ever address me again, that's how low you are on the basketball totem pole. Go back to your fantasy sports.

Don't you worry about my credentials, though I assure you they are much much more impressive than yours and will continue to be, not just because you're nothing but a loser with zero basketball understanding whatsoever but because I'm so far from that it's not even funny.

Very amusing stuff, hearing some fucking loser try to talk down to me because I showed his little opinion for the invalid bullshit it really is. Go cry to mommy.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to William on Jan 29 at 22:31
+/-

You clearly have no clue what constitutes a franchise player. Is Gay one? Is Ellis one? Is Crawford one? No. A franchise player is a guy who wins games in multiple ways, something Iguodala has done ever since he took over this team.

Also, I'm clearing this up once and for all for the JonKaps of the world. The Sixers upped their offer for Iguodala BECAUSE THEY THOUGHT HE WOULD SIGN A ONE YEAR DEAL WITH THEM AND BECOME AN UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT THE NEXT YEAR, which all indications were that that was exactly what he was going to do. They didn't outbid anybody, not even themselves.

user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:03
+/-

I don't know. No, he doesn't have the skills to be a great scorer, but he could definitely get to the line a whole lot more, simply by attacking the basket more often. I don't think he takes anywhere close to full advantage of his explosiveness.

That's not the issue though (to me)

The issue is the same issue with Thad. Until developing a reliable outside jumper - teams can play off him daring him to beat them without driving. No need to play him close, which gives defense the advantage

user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:55
+/-

Does, say, Corey Maggette have a reliable jump shot? His mid-range numbers are a little better, now that I checked them, than I expected, but there's a guy who got to the line for years at a ridiculous rate without being a good shooter.

The way to fix this is to dribble right at the defender playing off you, see if he keeps backing up. If not then you get a closer jumper. If he steps out then you can take him 1 on 1.

Except (countering your argument) but being able to give the guy space you can defend him better when he makes a move (more space to adjust) and also get set earlier for charges.

You simply walk dribble into him and see what he does. No need to be aggressive and risk drawing a charge. Will he back up? If he decides to step out then he won't be set for a charge and Iggy would have the power in the matchup. He could blow by him, draw contact. If a player stands flat footed, Then iggy still can gain the upper hand because the seperation will become smaller and he'll have the upper hand at not being set like the defender. If the Defender backs up then Iggy can keep dribbling in and then post him up.

Iggy can take advantage physically of a player playing off of him. He has the handle too. Thad doesn't and he will have to have a consistent mid jumper, which to his credit he's been stroking lately.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to GoSixers on Jan 30 at 10:30
+/-

The other issue that Iggy and Thad have, IMO, is their lack of a plus-handle...the ability to put it on the deck from 20 feet from the basket when guarded on the perimeter. It is the combination of an inconsistent outside shot and the inability to break their man down on the perimeter on the bounce that keep either of them from being a true "closer".

I think Jrue is a better outside shooter.

I think Turner has a WAY better handle than either Thad or Iggy.

We need one of these guys to start closing games.

http://ppt.cc/bzSe

Kings Open To Moving Samuel Dalembert

Do you guys want Sammy back at the price of MLE? I think a coach like Doug (instead of EFJ) might be the right mentor for him...not to mention instant upgrade on interior defense.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to HW on Jan 29 at 10:56
+/-

I would only be interested in tis deal if 1) we had some assurance that we could resign Sammy to a cap-friendly deal and 2) trhe Kings would leave us a few bucks to offset some of Noc's 2011-12 deal.

I wanted the sixers to give Sam an extension last year (3 years 9 mil per would have been fine to me) because I think he was finally figuring out his role and his plusses were outweighing his minuses.

I don't think there's a snowballs chance in HELL the sixers bring him back even as a rental (Sacto wants expirings for him) because of the egg in the face moment not to mention the BS about him being a 'locker room problem'

They'd have to admit a mistake on multiple levels

Of all the Sixers painful losses, last night was the most "normal." It's commonplace for once NBA team to jump out to a big lead and then let-up, only to see the opponent roar back to make it a tight finish. And we all know how this team does in tight finishes...

In games like this there is plenty of blame to spread around. But the common denominator is that players and coach fell into the trap of feeling the game was over. But maybe this sticks in the memory of guys like Jrue/Turner/Thad so that in a few years (when the games hopefully matter) they can step up as leaders in night like this- and go for the jugular when they sense their teammates are letting up. IMO this is at leasts as important as anything they might have learned in all of their "moral victories."

you are kidding right? lou player of the game shot 2-9 whoever he was guarding at the time scored on him at will (he is impossible to hide on defense) How about that possession with 2 minutes left when he dribbled into a triple team, kept dribbling didn't pass and finally lost the ball. Who did they give that turnover too?
unless lou is scoring at a very high level he is a liability in the 4th quarter because of his very poor defense and lack of court awareness, he doesn't see his teammates and the ball doesn't move.

Story: Sixers were 'getting tight' in Grizzly defeat:

http://ow.ly/3Mwxo

user-pic
eddies' heady's on Jan 29 at 11:31
+/-

For all the hub-bub over Jrue not getting the ball late in 4th quarters, look no further than last night why Doug doesn't trust giving it to him. Doug doesn't have to worry about Lou turning it over when he gives it to him late because he will dribble the hell out of it for 15 seconds and jack up a double-pump-fake long jumper.

Jrue was so frenzied for like 3-4 plays right in a row, he just needs to settle himself and understand the value of the ball, particularly when having a lead. Time and situation is so key and the kid doesn't seem to get that yet. Hopefully it'll come because if we fans can't take too many more of those, you know he can't either. He has to be beating himself up today replaying those situations in his mind.

He's still developing, got to give him a chance. I'm confident that JRue is aware he played poorly in the 4th quarter. I don't have that confidence with Lou, I really don't think he's ever aware he cost the team.


user-pic
eddies' heady's reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 16:28
+/-

eh, I don't know if those instances last night have to do with any development. Some of his mishaps were just plain boneheaded and careless. Mistakes he shouldn't even make at the high school level. No excuse or explanation for them.

Pretty sure he's only played PG 1 year in high school, not at all in college, and has now played about 1 year in the pros as a starting PG. Let's give him some time ok. We're in no hurry.

user-pic
eddies' heady's reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 17:06
+/-

Position-specific has no bearing here, to me, or length of time played at it in a career. It doesn't matter what position he was playing at, those were some very, very ill-advised decisions and utter carelessness with the ball. Just no value or protection of the ball, or better yet the lead. I'm gonna give him some time, but as a coach you can only give him so much rope which is what I was hitting upon in my initial comment.

Through Sunday January 23rd:

There were only nine games in the NBA where a team scored 40 or more in the 4th quarter (7 teams, as Utah and Houston both did it twice)

Eight of those Nine occurrences were actually by away teams.

The worst scoring output by a team that had 40 put on them in the fourth was 24 by Minneosta against Utah, and the sixers are the first team to have been 'doubled' up in the fourth all year.

The team scoring 40 or more in the 4th this year is 5-4 through January 23rd.

Of these 9 games, a third quarter lead was blown 4 times, the largest (through January 23rd) being 13 points by Miami hosting utah on November 9th.

In these four games, the away team has been the victor all four times, utah twice (once over Minnesota and once over Miami)

This is the second time the sixers have blown a third quarter lead by giving up 40 or more in the fourth, the first time being the November 5th game against Cleveland (they led by 5 after 3), which makes the sixers, so far, the only team in the NBA so far this season to lose a game they were leading after 3 by giving up 40 or more points.


user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 12:56
+/-

How'd you look up all that?

Well, see, I'm a pretty geeky guy.

In addition to putting the rotation data Brian provides us on a game by game basis into a MySQL database, I play with MLB PitchFX data (but can't find the hitfx stuff yet) and from NBAStuffer.com I get the box scores (team only) for every game - week by week (for a small investment - to get every player downloaded would cost me over 600 bucks which I don't have yet). The stats give me basically whatever you see on a 'box score' page - for the team - which includes quarter by quarter scoring.

It occurred to me last night that what the sixers did might be unusual so I was determined to see how unusual so I wrote the queries to query my own database to find the data I presented above.

As I've said previously, if people want some information from the databases I have - I'm more than happy to provide it to them if they ask.

The 'box score' data i have goes back to the 06/07 season.

When I pointed out earlier at some point this year how bad the sixers scored in the third, league wide, it was from the same data source (the sixers have improved in third quarter scoring since then, i got a bunch of stuff I hope to try and write for brian sometime soon)

Respect.

Nah, just a geek who came to his 'calling' late in life (mid to late 30s)

Now, if i figure out how to teach myself statistics, heat maps, etc...and find that money to get player stats game by game, I can have a lot more fun.

The hoopstudy.com stuff i threw up with the rotations has bigger plans than just the sixers - and I'm still in a morass of interests that split my focus depending on my mood :)

Course then I have to figure out how to parse the 'game logs' to be able to reproduce the info a place like hoopdata presents (I like being able to access the raw data myself because then I can make it do whatever I want)

Any chance you can write up a post about everything you do when it comes to statistics etc? Would absolutely love to read it and then try it msyelf heh. Whenever I go stat hunting, looking for trends etc, I end up doing it so inefficiently that i usually spend 2-3 hours searching.

Well - that's pretty mcuh what I do.

I'm pretty good at Database design and querying.

A weird online internship for someone who writes for ESPN.com (in baseball) led me to explore the freely available pitchfx data from MLB, so then my interest turned to basketball because I prefer basketball over baseball just in general (though love baseball as well)

My first lame attempt at something was a 'pick em' game that i experimented with. Just pick the winners of the games every day. Required too much input from people and too much activity. Wanted to do an NBA 'suicide pool' game but that was tough to figure out how to make it work...easier in the NFL.

My issue is finding freely or not so expensive available data. Most sites out there (rightly) won't share their data (i've asked) - the cheapest box score (per player) data i've found is 50 cents a game (there are 1230 NBA games a year) but I found statstuffer had boxscores for teams affordably - and I knew Brian did his rotation stuff and asked him if he'd provide me with the raw data.

From there it's just a matter of building the databases and constructing the queries and views. Obviously what I can look at is very limited, and some queries are harder to write than others (eFG easy, DRB% harder) and I'm still constructing queries to get everything I need.

2-3 hours isn't really a lot of time though (I don't think) both the articles I've written this year (the two part lou williams and the spencer hawes piece) took a lot longer than that when I string the time together (and I didn't really edit them that much)

My problem is that with the varied interests I have I don't have enough time to focus on all of them. I've watned to do more this year on this stuff (NBA) but other things have intruded - not to mention my jobs :)

What I ahve available if anyone wants to see it is

1. Brians Rotational Data for the year, game by game, quarter by quarter, player by player (and combos, etc...)

2. NBA Boxscore (by team) data 2006-present

3. MLB PitchFX data since 2008 (the hardest to understand, there's SO MUCH in there I just don't really know what it is)

I'd love to tell you there are a bunch of tutorials out there to understanding this stuff or finding it - but it's just not easy :)

The box score data I get does require massaging (as does the stat data) to make it go into my databases but i've gotten them down to probably 30 minutes each time which is pretty quick

Hmm. How do i get started? What can I do to try and learn how to do what you currently do. I've always had an interest in numbers/trends etc. my parents tell me a story about how when i was 4-5 i would copy the Sports sections box scores of last nights Basketball games and write them down in Notebooks :|.

Give me some links, anything that helped you learn (did you take classes at school?) would be appreciated.

My interest in databases actually started when I was a kid (I just didn't know any better), but my 'modern' interest started my first job after I quit graduate school. I worked in the stock world (home office) with a massive filemaker pro database, and I liked learning how it worked and it went from there.

My first suggestion is to learn SQL - specifically MySQL (because it's free) - if there's a local community college around you they should have some classes in Datbase Design (applys to all aspects) but there are tons of books out there - WROX does some nice books.

Mostly, sadly, I learned by doing, through jobs and my own interest.

I'd start with database knowledge, design of databases and writing queries - writing queries is where the hard work but fun payoff comes in.

For example

Select p.ball
, p.strike
, (select count(*) from pitches where ball=p.ball and strike=p.strike and ab_id in (select ab_id from atbats where batter in (select eliasid from players where last='Howard' and first='Ryan'))) AS 'Occurences'
, count(*) AS 'InPlay'
, count(*)/(select count(*) from pitches where ball=p.ball and strike=p.strike and ab_id in (select ab_id from atbats where batter in (select eliasid from players where last='Howard' and first='Ryan'))) AS 'SwingPct'
, SUM((CASE ab.event WHEN 'Single' THEN 1 WHEN 'Double' THEN 1 WHEN 'Triple' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END)) AS 'Hits'
, SUM((CASE ab.event WHEN 'Single' THEN 1 WHEN 'Double' THEN 1 WHEN 'Triple' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END))/(SELECT count(*) from pitches where type='x' and ball=p.ball and strike=p.strike and ab_id NOT IN (select ab_id from atbats where event ='Home Run') and ab_id in (Select ab_id from atbats where batter in (Select eliasID from players where last='Howard' and First='Ryan'))) AS 'Babip'
FROM pitches p
INNER JOIN atbats ab
ON p.ab_id=ab.ab_id
WHERE p.type='x'
AND ab.ab_id in (select ab_id from atbats where batter in (select eliasid from players where last='Howard' and First='Ryan'))
GROUP BY p.ball, p.strike;


That gobbledy gook right there allows me to determine the BABIP for any player (ryan howard listed) on a given pitch count.

I can tweak this to determine how he does with just two strikes, against a specific pitch, against a left handed pitcher or righ handed pitcher.

Sometimes, the hardest thing honestly, is deciding WHAT to focus on and hope someone else hasn't done it.

Basketball (to me) is less evolved in a lot of things than baseball (and there's a lot less people working on it)

There's some opportunities in football too - but harder to break into - i emailed someone from football outsiders once, all their data is STILL in excel worksheets, and when you think about the volume of information they have - putting into a database makes too much sense but they ahven't gotten around to it (I offer my help free of charge to people to try and build up a portfolio and resume)

Given all this, i'd expect you to be better at Fantasy basketball :P.

Well, the stuff I look at doesn't translate to fantasy basketball which is still focused a lot on 'old school' stats. Honestly - one of my long term goals is to ahve a 'new kind' of fantasy basketball, eFG instead of FG%, Reb% instead of counting stats.

I would be tempted to make it 'really' hard and normalize all players - all players stats would be normalized to per 36 minute stats as long as they play a minimum of x games / minutes per week (a guy who scores 2 points in one minute of action obviously normalizes to a pretty high per 36 thing)

I also prefer H2H to Rotisserie in general.

I know numbers real well - I'm actually better with numbers than the players themselves usually :)

I totally agree with you. If you ever develop FF with advanced stats (how has this not been done yet?). The biggest problem though with making it per 36 is that then people that play 4 minutes very effectively are then valued highly. You then have to introduce a rule to counter that which ends up complicating things.

I don't think that FF stats are really that outdated, I just think they could benefit from having more stats added. You need to have the points/rebound/asts/ pure quantitative based stats in order to off balance the people that play 4 mins with very efficient per 36 min stats.

FF should have more advanced stats added with the current basic stats for sure. I would love RB% added, would enjoy seeing Brook lopez not be drafted in the top 75 because of this.

user-pic
Joe reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 15:11
+/-

Grab last year's numbers.

Calculate the scarcity of each individual statistic. I nromally do it relative to points, so a block is 17X more valuable than a point, etc.

Calculate FT and FG value based on attempts and percentages relative to ideal percentages. (.48 and .8 ish)

Guess on minutes a game, games played for players. Guess on player growth or decline due to age.

That is my approach. I'd share my fantasy basketball spreadsheet if interested. I'm only finishing 2nd or 3rd this year, though. Rich is looking like the favorite.

Honestly - I'm not a huge fantasy fan - i participated in the rotisserie cause brian asked me to and i'm in a keeper league that i maintain being in because I think you're a dick to drop out of something like that and do the best i can but admittedly i don't do a lot of research, i download some free pre season ranking sheets and i check my roster performance once a week and check out what guys have been doing the last week or two to see who might be worth swapping out.

My problem with the rotisserie is that i'm in last place and really see now way to become relevant - it's like being the cavs

Upload your fantasy spreadsheat please! Do it!

http://www.hoopstudy.com/Brawes.php

Updated without last nights games

There seems to be a lot of interest from some here in statistical study and analysis

my 'hoopstudy' (I hope) is going to be not just a blog but a lot more about statistical anlysis (evolution) of basketball so if anyone needs a place to store data or wants something non sixer related published somewhere - let me go. Obviously it's raw now - i'm working on web site layout and design now (I have a logo), but contributors or personal data is always welcome as long as you don't mind making it public :)

Would it be possible for you to archive say every 10-15 games so that I can go back and look at the difference between the last time. I still had the Page up before refreshing and it had after 27 games Brand/Hawes -2 over 420 mins, now they are -47 in 688 minutes. In the past 16 games they have averaged 16.75 minutes together on the court, and per game are averaging a loss of -2.81 on the court which is -8 per 48 minutes together.

It still doesn't change my opinion of the fact that Brand benefits from having a center that has the skillset that hawes has, but to be fair Hawes has been just flat out awful since then.

Also is it possible for you to put Brands stats per 36 minutes when playing with Spencer Hawes at the center, and same for when he's playing with another Center. Likewise put his per 36 min stats up for when he's playing the 5 and it would really help to further figure out Brand imo.

Apart of me thinks that when Brand is running the 5 his stats are going to end up being less than impressive as many of those points are coming from fast breaks as well as Thad/Lou generating them.

I could give you built in 'cuts' - first 10 games, second 10 games, or dates, it just requires tweaking some things.

I've got a bunch of research projects i wanted to run (some team stuff, some rotational stuff like lou and the 4th quarter - the 'clutch' rotational stuff, last 5 minutes of games decided by 5 or less) just haven't gotten around to it yet :)

I'll take notes on all the requests for stuff here and see what I can do.

In theory, could you just end up screenshotting previous pages before you update them, then update but have picture links to past examples?

Yeah - but to me that's not an elegant solution - it's cludgy and doesn't allow people to dig into it (sorting based on position and the like)

I'd rather figure out a way to present the data in a suitable manner that allows the user to manipulate it more.

One thing though - you run the danger of information overload - there's too much data right now - i think i should increase the 'usage' numbers to something like 'on average' x minutes per game (2, 3 maybe?) to focus on rotations that Collins does use a bit more consistently - and eliminate the 'last 30 seconds' ones that by now are up to 20 total minutes :)

Any suggestions from anyone?

Well, it's better than nothing :P. It's better than having the information lost/ not accessible. Temporary fix imo.

user-pic
Joe reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 15:40
+/-

wow this is pretty cool. You were right on a few people, but heh @ brook lopez :P. Jokes on me though, I ended up drafting him.

user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:51
+/-

Well, I'm interning for some civil rights group (not by choice) and they want me to list, for them, every municipality and county in Florida with 20% or more minority population. You think there might be some fast way of doing this?

In general - yeah

I know what I'd do - but I'd need access to the complete US Census data. Your law firm should have access to that shouldn't they?

Tray

Something like this might help

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html

user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 14:22
+/-

Well take this data set:

http://tinyurl.com/8ul57

Is there a way I could put these numbers into a program and get which counties are 20% black/Hispanic or higher?

Yeah, you could do that in a spreadsheet pretty easily. Give me 10 minutes, I'll upload it here.

Here you go: floridacounties.xls

The % number next to each county name is percent of total pop which is B/AA + His/Lat.

user-pic
Tray reply to Brian on Jan 29 at 18:03
+/-

Thanks a lot. Although, I also need to do black population by itself, Hispanic population by itself, and, all of these things for every town and census-designated place in Florida. But I'm sure I can figure it out in Excel.

All you have to do in excel is change the C value for each of the county's.

I'd suggest copying and pasting into Sheet#2 on the bottom. Or make a new Excel sheet and copy paste the data that you already have and then manipulate the C value.

For Alachua county all you have to make C1 Value is =(B5/B2) and it should show 19.3%

Also out of curiosity what is the difference between total population and just Total? Why is there a difference lol.

The fist total is total pop. The second total is total with only one race.

user-pic
Tray reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 19:27
+/-

I guess what I don't get is how I can repeat the formula, instead of just going B5/B2, B20/B17, etc.

I think you just manually have to do it for each C value.

Here you go. floridacounties2.xls

This one has percentages for each group, the percentage next to the county name is still B/AA + H/L as percentage of total pop.

user-pic
Tray reply to Brian on Jan 29 at 20:26
+/-

Well this is very helpful, Brian. I really appreciate it. Out of gratitude I'm going to have to be a lot more polite when you say wildly optimistic things about the Sixers' future.

wow, is there a "trick" that you did that saves you time? Did you manually input all C value equations.

All you do is write the formula for each data point for the top county, then copy the entire group of formulas and paste them in the appropriate spot for the other counties.

user-pic
Tray reply to GoSixers on Jan 29 at 13:06
+/-

Are we really the first team to be doubled up on in the fourth all year, or just the only team to be doubled up on in the 4th by a team that scored 40? I mean, have there not been any 36-18 fourth quarters, or quarters like that?

My instinct is to say no, the sixers aren't the first team doubled in the 4th quarter - just the first team doubled in the fourth when the opposing team scores 40. I chose 40 as my arbitrary barrier because it seemed like a rarer event. I could easily have chosen 35 or less, but just went with 40 a nice round number.

Heck, I ws surprised to see 9 occurrences (there are more 40 point quarters, just 9 40 point fourths which was my only concern)

Tray

To answer your question, there have been 106 quarters, in which one team scored twice as much as the other team this season

And for the hell of it - 7 quarters in which one team scored 3 times (or more) as much as another team.

And that's where weird things show up (like Jayson Starks friday columns).

Chicago has been involved in FIVE of the 7 quarters this year where one team has tripled up another. They've trippled up the Pistons and the Cavs, but they've been trippled up by the spurs, the kings, and the suns)

The spurs have tripled up the bulls once but also been trippled up by the hornets.

The most 'embarassing triple' (in my opinion) is the Suns getting tripled up 12-4 in a second over time by the bulls, IN phoenix.

No team has been tripled up in the 2nd quarter this year and only one team (atlanta by boston) has been tripled up in the first half.

(Jason, this is where weird stuff comes from - tray asked one question and my brain wants to see the 3 :)

The worse 'multiple' so far this year - Chicago out Scored Chicago 34-9 in the fourth quarter the day before halloween in Chicago.

heh, I'd love to know what your database that you built just visually looks like.

Any chance you'd screen shot it :D?

I"m not good with interfaces :)

My database is pure UNIX mysql data - and i use something called MySQL WOrkbench to run my queries - then i use excel to format stuff - there's a file i use to 'create' the database every season - building the tables - but I don't have a database diagram at this moment.

The key (and believe it or not it took me over a year to figure it out) was how to deal with games so that road teams / home teams wins/ lossses opponents records coudl easily be accounted for and it literally came to me in my sleep once :)

Figuring out that the general game information needed to sit in one table while the team information regarding home / away win loss went in another table took me a long while but it was key :)

Course, when I get player data, it'll be more difficult to integrate but I think follow the same principle - though rosters and trades will make it more difficult :)

Can you screenshot what you are looking at that shows you when teams double up in a quarter and even triple up in a single quarter?

I'm trying to picture it in my mind how it would look but i have no idea.

Thank you that really helps. Especially seeing the upper part where you input what you wanted.

Looks nice, I was expecting something way less atheistically pleasing

Also just found this on http://www.hoopstudy.com/Brawes.php your site, and I've been thinking that Hawes has been a very big help in why Brand is playing so well. Hawes ends up running around the floor taking the long 2s with brand just staying near the rim in his hot spots. Which is why i really like Troy Murphy as a quick fix, I think he can do everything that Hawes does and let Brand play to his strengths.

user-pic
Gosixers! reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 14:33
+/-

Those stats aren't current. I haven't uploaded new data on a while

After i parse last nights data I'll update the online database and let you know it's done

Replying on my iPhone so keeping it brief

Just to further conclude my thoughts on Rudy Gay/Iguodala, which isn't really specific to the two players.

I value a good shooter with the ability to create a shot more than I do playmaking and Defense. Very few players in the NBA can provide you that, I believe you can fill the team up with players that can provide you playmaking and Defense as there are many players that that can provide that. But when it comes to shooting/creating a shot for oneself, its a very thin herd.

Just to conclude my thoughts on this matter ...
I actually have a higher opinion of Gay than most people here (except, obviously, for you, Jason), but it's specifically because he's improved his defense and overall game. And I still don't think, with that improvement, he's as good as Iguodala (though Gay was the 2nd-best SF on the World team, after Iguodala and ahead of Granger).

Regarding your argument about creating shots, the analysis by Henry Abbott recently about end-of-game isolations is revealing. The fact of the matter is that the league average is around 35%, so no one does that well in those situations. And prior to last year, Iguodala was above league average in those situations himself. It's not really about creating shots, it's about making shots, and the difference between this year's Gay and Iguodala at his best isn't that great.

What Gay does better than Iguodala on offense is hit the jumper more consistently. I don't buy that that makes him a much more valuable offensive player than Iguodala, and the game last night showed why. Iguodala was the only Sixer who consistently set up his teammates for good shots (you did a good job of pointing this out). And as a matter of fact, I tend to think good jump shooters in the NBA are easier to find than really good playmakers (though you wouldn't know it with the Sixers), and good jump shooters are easier to stop.

The 4th quarter gave a good picture of the "growing pains" we can expect to see if Iguodala is traded and Jrue is handed the full reins to the team right now (hopefully not as bad as that, though). I'm compiling the complete set of clutch stats for the Sixers on the year, and I'm finding that Jrue is a decent shooter in the clutch but a horrible playmaker (with a shockingly low assist-to-turnover ratio).

So in a hypothetical Iguodala-Gay trade, I don't think the Sixers would get terribly worse, as Gay's better shooting would offset Iguodala's better defense and playmaking, but I don't agree that such a trade is the no-brainer you initially said it would be, even considering offense only.

user-pic
Tray reply to Statman on Jan 29 at 13:48
+/-

Well, he hits the jumper more consistently, and he produces more because he takes more shots. There is something to scoring more. I mean, you wouldn't say, "the difference between Kobe and Iguodala on offense is that Kobe hits the jumper more consistently." Kobe also takes on a way bigger load; this makes him more valuable.

user-pic
Statman reply to Tray on Jan 29 at 16:54
+/-

Well, he hits the jumper more consistently, and he produces more because he takes more shots. There is something to scoring more. I mean, you wouldn't say, "the difference between Kobe and Iguodala on offense is that Kobe hits the jumper more consistently." Kobe also takes on a way bigger load; this makes him more valuable.

There is something to scoring more and more efficiently. If somebody just takes a lot of shots but not effectively (say Nick Young goes 13-32 for 30 points for the rest of the year, for example), I'd rather have the guy who's getting 17 PPG and distributing to everyone else on the team.

My point in all of this discussion is that to this point in their careers, Iguodala has shot less and been more efficient than Gay. My expectation is that if Iguodala is healthy and the Sixers don't blow things up, his efficiency is going to be the same as or better than Gay's by season's end and the PPG difference isn't going to be as great. If you (and Jason) are saying Iguodala is never going to approach his 06-07 through 08-09 numbers again, I guess I don't have evidence to refute that (although I don't see why a 27-year old should have already peaked). But it sounds more like you are saying Iguodala has never been as good offensively as Gay has been this year. To me, that simply isn't true. And if Iguodala ups his PPG marginally the rest of the year (to say 16 PPG), I wouldn't even agree it's true this year, given the huge playmaking advantage that Iguodala brings.

27 is pretty old for someone that relies entirely on athleticism. He doesn't have a jumpshot to rely on offensively. He's suffering a nagging injury that's not getting better this year. Will it improve next season? I don't know, but he's played a lot of minutes already which is the death of an athletic player.

Rudy Gay relies on his athleticism, but he still has a ridiculous wingspan and a few inches on iguodala besides the fact that his jumper will translate. I like Rudy Gay today, I like Rudy gay long term.

user-pic
TruePhan reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 22:56
+/-

He doesn't rely entirely on athleticism. This is such a tired dig it's not even funny. He relies on his skill. He just happens to be extremely athletic, which helps make him more effective at certain aspects of the game. He is a very technically sound player.

user-pic
Tray reply to Statman on Jan 29 at 18:00
+/-

No, I'm not saying Iguodala has never been 2010-11 Rudy Gay, or better. Just that this year it isn't a totally invalid argument to say, "gee, one guy's scoring 20 a game, the other's scoring 14, and the one who's scoring 20 a game is actually doing so more efficiently, so, maybe this season at least the 20 ppg guy is a better offensive player." That, in fact, the points mean something. Iguodala has obviously been better, in the past, than this year's Rudy Gay. Now... whether Iguodala returns to scoring 17 a game one day is hard to say. My sense is that any time you put him alongside people who can score, he stops shooting. Now that Brand's capable again, Iguodala just wants to be a distributor.

user-pic
Statman reply to Tray on Jan 29 at 18:24
+/-

I don't really disagree with anything you're saying. If the PPG's stay the same and the efficiencies stay the same, then it's no question Gay has been more valuable offensively this year, even given Iguodala's better playmaking (though I don't think the difference is as gigantic as Jason was making it out to be). But I expect -- assuming full health from Iguodala -- that his numbers will improve (they already have, to some degree) and that, more than likely, Gay's will decrease slightly. Players generally approach their career norms over the long haul (percentage stats, not counting stats).


I am still trying to put my thoughts all together for a response, i Obviously disagree with a few things you are saying about rudy gay and Jrue holiday in here.

"(though Gay was the 2nd-best SF on the World team, after Iguodala and ahead of Granger)."

I'm sorry, but this is just not an ok way to judge whose better between Gay and Iguodala. iguodala wasn't asked to score, he wasn't asked to shoot, wasn't even asked to playmake. He was just asked to be an athletic player that shut down his defender tow hich i say. Hell yeah Iguodala is the best SF at doing that. But there are so few situations that Iguodala is just simply going to be asked to play the role he was asked to play in the FIBA tourney.

user-pic
Statman reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 17:01
+/-

I'm sorry, but this is just not an ok way to judge who's better between Gay and Iguodala. iguodala wasn't asked to score, he wasn't asked to shoot, wasn't even asked to playmake.

Just as a point of clarification, I wasn't saying that anybody could tell from the World games themselves that Iguodala was the better player. But in the open competition prior to the games, Iguodala earned his starting berth over Gay by playing better than anyone else besides Durant. When you saw them play against each other, it was clear who was better (well, clear to me, maybe you disagree).

I place weight more on how they play in a team environment. I like the fit of Rudy Gay in 95-96% of scenarios over Iguodala.

Outside of playing alongside of a superstar wing player I want rudy Gay. If Pierce was gone from Boston and I had to replace pierce with either Gay or Iggy i'm giong with Rudy Gay. Same thing if Allen goes down. For Lakers if Kobe goes down, I replace him with Gay, If Artest goes I want Iguodala. If one of the two scorers on Miami were to be replaced and i had to choose b/w Andre and Rudy i go Iguodala.

But that's it, Most scenarios I want Rudy Gay on my team. Maybe not Houston, i'd like Iguodala alongside Martin, but Still, not that many teams, Iguodala needs a scorer on the wing for him to thrive. I feel I can build around Rudy, don't need anything else.

I don't know how familiar you are with NBA video games, but there is a fantasy draft option in franchise mode, where you basically pick a team then draft players like the NBA draft. Say i had the 20th pick and Rudy Gay and Iguodala were still available with my first pick, I take Rudy Gay 100% of the time because I believe he is much easier to build around and I take that into consideration in how much I like a player.

user-pic
Tray reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 17:55
+/-

"I feel I can build around Rudy, don't need anything else."

Well this is an absurd statement. I mean, Memphis has Gay. They have a power forward averaging 20 and 13. Kind of inefficiently, but still, an impact player, borderline All-Star. Conley's an okay point guard, this year at least. Marc Gasol, solid center, a lot better than the average NBA center. Not so much this year, but certainly last year. Last year Mayo was a very solid third option. Now in spite of all of that, they're an extremely mediocre team. And they were last year when Gasol and Mayo were having better years. So obviously you need a whole lot around Gay to be a good team, because he already has a lot of talent and it's getting him nowhere. I think this year Gay and Iguodala are about neck and neck, and in previous years when Iguodala actually bothered to score, all of Iguodala's other attributes put him way over the top.

If they were in the East coast they'd be in competition for the 5th seed. The sixers in the west coast conference would be vying for a Lottery pick.

user-pic
Tray reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 18:12
+/-

Well, this year they're 8-9 against the East, putting them in line for the 7th seed, theoretically... except, they'd still have to play Western conference games, just fewer. Last year they were 20-12 against the East, and 22-30 against the West. So that projects out to 45-46 wins if they switched conferences. Getting them the 7th seed. So they'd still be really ordinary, in the worse conference.

And sixers are on pace for like 35-36 wins this season right? or less? off top of head i'll guess 34-48. So 12 win difference. Also Memphis could really use a 2 guard as well as an improvement over Conley, who i don't think is bad, there are a lot of PGs with more talent.

user-pic
Tray reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 19:25
+/-

I mean, do the Sixers have Zach Randolph? Do the Sixers have a center who's a third as good as Marc Gasol? You don't think very well of Mayo, but last year he was scoring 17 a game pretty efficiently; he's better than our version of Mayo, Lou Williams.

Gasol is a tad bit overrated this year.

Randolph>>>>>>>>Sixers team
Brand=Gasol
Jrue>>>>Conley
Meeks=Sam young

Thad = better than their bench players, even though he matched up very poorly vs Memphis.
Lou-Mayo this year.
Evan Turner>>>>> Memphis Bench Counterpart.
Speights>>>>>Thabeet.


I don't think the rest of the team is that much more talented than the sixers. but yes Randolph helps, Is he worth 12 more wins? Should the sixers try and find a way to get him this off-season? Sign and Trade etc?

user-pic
TruePhan reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 23:21
+/-

Yes, Memphis is much, much more talented than the Sixers. Mayo at his worst is so much better than Lou's best game of his life it's not even funny. Brand and Gasol are nothing alike. Conley's been slept on but is a pretty good PG. Jrue is/will be better though, I'll give you that one. Randolph is a very skilled player who is tough and is a damn good scorer. Tony Allen is a solid player. X. Henry is a huge upside player. Haddidi is a pretty nice, skilled backup big. Vasquez and Young are both solid scorers. Arthur is a nice, young big. Then of course you add in Rudy Gay.

Thad, Turner, Dre, Jrue, Speights, and maybe Meeks/Brackins are around the level of talent of some of the Grizzlies players. Hawes, Lou, and everybody else though are so far below them it's not even funny.

user-pic
johnrosz on Jan 29 at 15:44
+/-

missed last nights game, opted to go out and get drunk instead. Looks like I made the right call from what I see here...

quick question, why only 20 minutes for ET? On my way out I was listening to the 2nd quarter on the radio, sounded like he was having a solid stretch of bball.

was he struggling after that?

3rd quarter run was all starters for the most part. Then Doug panicked when offense stopped being produced and went to the wrong players.

user-pic
johnrosz reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 15:47
+/-

I love Doug but I'm starting to wonder if his Stan Van Gundy "master of panic" act that he pulls late in games is something that has a negative impact on the players

user-pic
mgfields reply to johnrosz on Jan 29 at 17:18
+/-

Turner came in with Lou and Thad in the second half when the Grizz started their comeback. He didn't play well during that stretch (no one did) so Collins sat him for the more experienced players the rest of the way.

user-pic
johnrosz reply to mgfields on Jan 29 at 17:26
+/-

anyone else think it's funny that the "veterans" on this team outside of EB and Iggy are mostly boneheaded players?

Nocioni plays out of control most nights, Battie is tissue paper soft, always has been, it's laughable that they depend on him to be a defensive presence. He's not a smart player either.

Your decision to get drunk rather than watch the game was most def the right one, except for missing Battie's full-court heave for no reason at the end of the game. Truly entertaining, I laughed very hard.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6071073&categoryid=2378529


Guess where Rudy Gay's dunk ended up?

Question about Point per possesion.

In theory, a player who averages 30 posseions is still equally effective if he only aveages 1 pt per possesion as the average team has 95.6 possessions. By doing this you are getting 30 pts leaving you with 66 other possessions in which you have 8-9 othe players on a team that are dividing those shots up, and are for the most part going to end up with better quality shots because the player who ends up shooting the ball 30 times a game will most likely take the majority of bad shots for a team, which is inevitable when half court offense fails. If the rest of his team averages just 1.1 points per possesion they will end up scoring 72 points +30 =102ish pts which is very respectable.

It's similar to the Melo stat, where everyone that plays with him ends up becoming a better quality shooter. It's simply because Melo takes the bad shots.

Am I making any sense? far off base? is what i wrote even understandable?

I understand what you're saying, but it's flawed logic IMO. A guy using that many possessions at such low efficiency is putting an unnecessary burden on the rest of the team. Look at it this way, 30 shots for 30 points, with 96 possessions (which is a very fast pace) you need 70 points on the other 66 possessions, which wouldn't be unreasonable if you were talking about 66 shots, but you also have to account for empty possessions without shots. Say 14 turnovers, then you need 70 points on 52 shots to be respectable. That's a ts% of 67.3%.

Now it's not quite that simple, if the team gets offensive rebounds on some of his missed shots, then they'd have more than 52 fg to get 70 points, but you get the picture.

Well, if the average Point per possession for a team is something like 1.1 right? Google says that the average amount of possessions a team has is 95.6. So if a star player is scoring 30 pts on 30 possessions that's just 1 per posseion which isn't horrible if you consider the fact that there are some players that are only taking wide open shots and high percentage shots that will themselves end up with higher TS%.


Now I may have hurt my argument here. But really the Main Argument I had is that the more possesions you use as a player, the lower overall TS% that is expected of you. Because a player that uses 6-7 possessions as a starter is much more likely to be taking higher percentage shots and should then help bring the teams average to the acceptable rate.

So it's like http://i56.tinypic.com/2m79fly.png the X= #Possesions.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011.html

96 possessions is almost the fastest pace in the league. I'm on my phone now, but I'll respond to the rest of this later.

Anyway, back to our discussion.

First of all, 1.0 points-per-possession is very different from 30 points on 30 shots. If you're talking about a guy who literally scores 30 points on 30 shots, you're talking about terrible offensive efficiency. It means he's either shooting a terrible percentage from the floor, not getting to the line at all, or getting to the line and hitting a bad percentage of his free throws.

If you're talking about a guy who scores 30 points on 30 possessions, including free throws and turnovers, then you're not really talking about a bad player at all. I randomly chose OKC, take a look at this chart (I threw Iguodala and Gay in there for kicks). All the way to the right you'll see possessions (FGA + TOV + FTA*0.44), then points-per-possession, then points-per-FGA. 1.00 Points-per-FGA is just terrible. 1.00 points-per-possession is pretty good, Durant is barely above 1.00 in that category. Iguodala, Gay and Westbrook are all below 1.00.

That's an important distinction, and really one we need to make before we can even continue the discussion.

Just to get back to your Rudy Gay argument, forgetting about stats and whether having a legit #1 scorer makes everyone else better for a second, there's one thing about guys like Gay and Granger that settles this argument in my mind when you're talking about building around certain guys.

Let's say Gay and Granger are both guys who will take the tough shots, can create their own shots, and will score 20+ for you. Those are all valuable skills, no doubt. But that's where it ends on the offensive end. Neither of those guys draws a double. At best, they occupy the opposing team's best wing defender, which should make it easier for the other wing to score. If you want to make the argument that teams do double them to slow them down, then they're both just horrible at making teams pay for it. Gay's assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.82 on his career, which is pitiful. Granger's isn't much better, 1.02.

This is what you're getting from Gay and Granger, above-average point production on the possessions they use, so roughly 25% of possessions when they're on the floor. The other 75% aren't being affected.

With a guy like Iguodala, you're getting above-average production on the 20% of possessions he uses, plus the added efficiency he gives to other players via his playmaking (which far outweighs whatever efficiency advantage Gay and Granger give their teammates by absorbing the best wing defender of the other team, which Iguodala also does).

The argument between Gay and Iguodala is closer this season than it has been in the past because, at least according to 82games.com, Gay has dramatically improved his defense, but it's still not really much of an argument. You're talking about a slight bump in scoring efficiency for 5% of possessions vs. Iguodala's playmaking, which is accounting for assists on 24% of possessions (to Gay's 11%).

If you want to use this argument for a guy like Melo, I think you can make a better case because his usage is up at 32.5%, and his assist rate is at almost 16%, but Gay isn't used enough, and doesn't do nearly enough for his teammates to even enter the conversation, imo.

This is where Advanced stats are borderline useless. They do tell a story, but not an entire story. Iguodala is in a position on the sixers where he can create offense for others. That is not required whatsoever by Rudy Gay. That is not what the Memphis team requires of him. Zach Randolph is a player that can create his own shot, post a player up, and while he does have a mid range jump shot, Rudy Gay won't be the beneficiary of an assist because Mike Conley and Zach Randolph runt he pick and pop.


The problem with comparing assist ratios between Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala is that they both play completely and totally different roles on offense. Rudy Gay is asked to produce points himself. I really don't know what Iguodala's role is. Memphis runs a much more defined half court offense compared to the sixers and the amount of creativity for Rudy Gay to try and create plays is very little. On the flipside, Andre Iguodala functions in a cluttered offense that really isn't very structured in the half court game. A part of that is because the sixers run a 100 different rotations and dono't stick with an "A" Group. Because there is no half court offense being run this allows Iguodala to have the ball and look to create offense for his teammates. Of course Andre Iguodala is going to create more assists than Rudy Gay, but that's by design. Simply put, you are simply comparing Apples to oranges and not realizing the whole picture.

The problem with Usage rate is that it doesn't show how exactly a player is using the ball, how long they have the ball, and exactly how much Offense is being created directly through them divided by how often they have the ball. This is an advanced stat that is missing in this conversation. Simply put, how many times does Iguodala touch the ball, have the ability to create a shot for himself, make a play for an opposing player translate into points? Say he averages 14 ppg, and averages 5.5 assists. Let's say that he average three assists that lead to a 3 point shot, and on average 2.5 assists that lead to lay ups (I'm taking a very wild guess on this.) those 5.5 assists end up coming out to an average of 14 pts on top of his 14 points for 28 ppg being created directly by Iguodala touching the ball. Now Rudy Gay, he averages 20 ppg, and only 2.7 assists per game, which using the same ratio for Iguodala he averages assisting 1.4 3s per game as well as 1.3 2s per game which turns out to be 5.8 pts created by Rudy Gay from assists. Add that together Rudy Gay is creating 25.8 ppg. Now simple math shows Iguodala creating 28 ppg and Rudy Gay is only creating 25.8 ppg.


But you have to go further. How many times does Iguodala touch the ball? Usage rate is absolutely useless when it comes to determining how long the ball is in someones hand. It does not quantitate how many seconds per game a player has the ball in his hand which in turn slows down the offense. The way that Memphis's offense works, when Rudy Gay gets the ball he has a role to play, and that's to score. He will get the occasional assist, but even lou williams does and he is trying to score himself. But Iguodala is in possession of the ball a lot longer imo. It's not entirely his fault, but because the sixers are broken offensively he has to create which causes him to have a higher True Usage Rate (I'm coining this term right here.) True Usage rate is really how long a player on average has the ball in his hand per possession for the sixers. This cannot be quantified easily, and that is why we are stuck with only USG%, which is very inaccurate imo.

Bringing this back to Rudy Gay and Iguodala. Iguodala by my simple estimations of adding assists into offense created averages 28 ppg, Rudy Gay only averages 25.8 pppg created. Now that shows that Andre Iguodala is creating .085% more points than Rudy Gay. However you have to divide PPG created by a players True Usage ratio, or in terms of each possession, how long does Player X have the ball in his hands. Now just from watching the sixers offense, I am willing to bet the farm on Iguodala having a much higher True Usage Rate than Rudy Gay which means he's creating less overall offense than Rudy Gay is when you adjust it to an even amount of time used.

P.S I understand if you don't get what i'm saying, if it comes off as complete gibberish. I am trying to find a way to quantitate how I view the situation. Obviously i'm talking in theory here, because maybe Rudy "true" usage ratio is only under .085% less than Iguodala's TUSG%. But simply, I think the way you are putting it is way too simple and doesn't provide an accurate picture. I still stand by the fact that Rudy Gay is better offensively, and I truly believe that Rudy Gay creates more team scores than Iguodala does per an equal amount of True Usage ratio. Also if Rudy Gay was traded for iguodala, he wouldn't be playing an Iguodala role you have to factor that into the equation. Jrue Holiday would have an increased amount of point creation via assists, so would Evan Turner.

user-pic
Joe reply to Jason on Jan 29 at 22:45
+/-

This is a rebuttal or the Melo argument.

Nice. Academia meets basketball discussion! Will read that tomorrow, got through the introduction then realized I had a long ways to go.

Cousins has 25, 11 and 7 right now, leading his team to an upset over the Hornets, who have won ten straight. One play in particular impressed me. He picked up his 5th foul with a minute to play on a stupid reach-around offensive foul, after already getting by Okafor. He gets back on defense, sees Thornton going to the basket, and sets up just outside the restricted area to take the charge. A lot of players wouldn't risk fouling out in that situation.

My other favorite rookie, Davis, had 15 and 11 on 10 shots.

25 points on 27 possessions. At least he started another streak of 5+ TOV + PFs, though. He broke his previous streak last night.

user-pic
Tray reply to Brian on Jan 30 at 1:34
+/-

So do you think Cousins is (a) a big reason they won the game, (b) a small reason, (c) didn't help or hurt, (d) made the game closer than it should have been? I mean, the team as a whole scored 102 points on about 101 possessions, so he's not really making them less efficient. And you can certainly argue that if those shots went to other players, they wouldn't make as many as he did. Surely the 12 boards and 7 assists helped.

The boards and assists certainly helped. Though I'm not sure why when the rest of the team scored 77 on 75 possessions (by your math, which I'm certain is wrong, but whatever) you make the assumption that the rest of the team would've done worse with the 27 possession he used than he did.

Dalembert had 16 points on 14 possessions, by the by. Dalembert had a huge game last night, as well.

Marvin Williams suspended almost immediately for his friday altercation

Kevin Garnett however, still (at this time) eligible for the nationally broadcasted game on Sunday huh?

Happens in every sport. Andre Johnson didn't get suspended because he was going to be on NFL's Nationally televised Thursday night broadcast.


KG is a punk though, so is Paul Pierce, so is Ray allen, so is rajon Rondo. I like Kendrick Perkins, but everyone else on the celtics are punks.

Damn put this in the wrong thread ;)


Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment


back-to-story.gif