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What's the Problem?

I don't have any problems with the way Jrue is playing, he just had a couple off nights that caused Collins to lose confidence in him. What I do have a problem with is Meeks, who can't handle the ball and who also can't seem to stay within five feet of the guy he's supposed to be guarding, playing over Jrue in the 4th quarter. And that's on the coach.

OK, so in a way i think it's a mixture of all of the things that you mentioned Brian. I honestly am not worried at all. If i have learned one thing over the past 15 years that i follow the NBA it's that the one thing you can expect for a young player (especially a guard) to improve in the next few years it's taking care of the ball. And that is more or less Holiday's only problem in his game right now. That however is a big problem for a playoff team, which has lead to his reduced role.

Additionally, we all know that PG is the hardest position to play as a young player because of the huge amount of responsibility that comes with it. Name me a starting PG at the age of 20 that has played a key role on a playoff bound team? You can't think of a lot can you?

This is a list of guards 20 years or younger that have played a meaningful role on a team over the last 30 years or so.

http://tinyurl.com/6lbtyrp

The only ones that were on playoff teams were Magic Johnson, Tony Parker, Stephon Marbury, Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings. That is quite an illustrious company.

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deepsixersuede on Feb 11 at 7:46
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I am going to look at the starting lineup and not the end of the game, because it seems Lou is our coaches B.Lidge, for whatever reason. This move of Jrue to the wing has improved 2 positions for this team, our s.f. and s.g. spots. Iggy is thriving because his strength isn't attacking off the dribble on the wing and Meeks is getting better looks because of Iggy's ability to pass over the defense to the weakside where Jody can set his feet and launch.

We know Iggy isn't a 20 ppg. guy but we don't know if Jrue can be. I am willing to let Jrue adjust to this role, like Evan is to his, and maybe the end result is better than we all expect. He may be a natural scorer and unless a trade is made, our coach has to put this puzzle together to benefit the team first and foremost.

Look at the Meeks/Turner situation; we all want Evan starting but he and Jody seem to be getting good at their roles, Evan as a jack of all trades and Jody giving our starters what they need. Jrue needs time, and 10 games at least, to see how this works and if it is an option.

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deepsixersuede reply to deepsixersuede on Feb 11 at 7:55
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By the way, this move seems to also have helped Elton, and the chemistry between our 2 best players is better than it ever was. Elton is getting more touches and that to me is a 3rd positive from this decision.

I don't think it's anything to be worried about. Growing pains - he's doing fine. He also started to begin the season and then got it back together. He'll be fine.

On a different note, if Deron Williams is indeed made available either because he doesn't plan to stay in Utah or because he gains a coach killer rep, shouldn't we offer Jrue + Turner + future 1st and be able to land him?? And wouldn't that position us as one of the main players for Dwight Howard in 2012??

I believe Jrue + Turner + 1st is too much. Usually players like that are traded for one very good young player + 1 first rounder (or two if they are mid 20s firsts) + expirings.

In that sense i would say Jrue + Kapono + SOngaila + 2011 1st rounder. No need to give up Turner as well.

While I do believe it is a combination of all those factors, I think the key contributor is his shaken confidence as a result of being somewhat marginalized (combining two of the options).

I would not say that I am worried, just a little concerned that Jrue feels something similar going on here than what went on at UCLA. Jrue is not a two.

When Doug takes the ball out of Jrue's hands at the end of the game it is going to hurt his confidence. It's reasonable for Jrue to feel that way.

I can't complain because Iggy has been fabulous in his adjusted role, it just raises some concern regarding Jrue.

Allowing the kid to work through the growing pains really seeems like the best route at this point. Compromising between putting the team in the best position to win and maximizing the postential of the young guys is a tight line to walk. For this reason I don't really envy the position of Doug and think he has been doing a pretty good job thusfar.

What do you guys think of Omer Asik as a possible big man solution? He is not that young (24) but i think he can still improve his game and he already is a solid rebounder and shot blocker. Would you trade say Speights for him?

Jrue Is fine I dont think anything is wrong with his play. He has had a couple of games where he culd have played better but its just part of the process.

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Joe reply to Marcus on Feb 11 at 10:33
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I'm in this arena.

His numbers over the last month aren't bad even. They just aren't particularly close to what he had been doing before that.

Turner, Lou, and Speights have been really good the last month, though.

Story: Collins trying to make Sixers relevant again:

http://ow.ly/3UDCF

I generally have praised Collins and have been preaching caution with Jrue's ups and downs. But IMO the struggles over the last few weeks have been almost 100% Collin's fault.

Again, inconsistency in a 20 year old is expected, but it it minimized when you keep him in a comfort zone. Jrue is best when he controls the action. This was his role as a H.S. star, and where he thrived in Iguodala's absence (when Collins was forced by necessity to put the offense in Jrue's hands.)

It's somewhat analogous to Lou and how his performance is role Dependant. Lou's comfort zone is ball dominant scorer. You put him in that role and he produces. But you try and make Lou a PG and everyone struggles. In the same way, moving Jrue off the ball and ask him to be a SG, and everyone suffers.

Collins had the right idea heading into the season. Jrue was the future, and was to be given the keys and groomed to be an elite PG. While Iguodala would adapt to his "natural" elite glue guy role. But somehow the team's early struggles and recent "playoff race" has led Collins astray. The first sign was Collins taking the ball out of Jrue's hands in the 4th. Not willing to ride the ups and downs of a 20 year old PG, he instead chose to live and die by Lou in an Iverson role. Then, suddenly Iguodala is the "cornerstone" and "point forward." This is on Collins, not on Iguodala.

Collins was criticized prior to this year as lacking patience with young players. Some of those concerns seemed to be dispelled earlier this year. But now that they are no longer a "rebuilding team" and are instead a "playoff team" Collins is losing his way. IMO Jrue's development is the most important goal of this season. More important than a 6th seed vs an 8th seed. But for that to happen, Jrue has to be running the offense- not learning to be a half decent SG.

IN the interview that Tom Moore (thanks Tom) published yesterday with Coach Collins, he (coach) referred to Jodie Meeks and how he was struggling cause he was worried about being pulled if he made a mistake so coach said he went to Jodie and told him 'just play'. It seems to me that it might help to go to a guy like Jrue, or Evan, and tell them just play. If the coach has no confidence in you and puts you on a shorter and shorter leash, how will you have confidence in you?

That's my concern

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Joe reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 11:17
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Some major issues I have with this:

Other guys aren't struggling. Iguodala is thriving, as are Lou, Speights, and Turner.

Brand has been down a little. Thad has struggled. Jrue is struggling. Meeks has been a little better actually. I think Hawes is the same, but I am blinded by my hatred of him at times.

Also, if Jrue is this sensitive to role changes, I don't want him. He wasn't proven himself enough to be a guy who can't be somewhat versatile in his roles. If he has to do one specific thing, that limits what else you can do with the roster.

I think everything is fine, though. I also have only seen 1/3 of the game action over the last month, so who am I to talk too much? Jrue hasn't been horrible since Iguodala's return either. He just hasn't been good. Turner and Jrue are both just too young to worry about inconsistencies.

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tk76 reply to Joe on Feb 11 at 12:20
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Jrue has been relagated to standing in the corer playing SG for at least half of each game.

If you want Jrue to be the long term answer at SG, then I agree,that he should be shipped out. Because Jrue is as much a SG as Lou is a PG.

But if Jrue is the PG then have him play PG. I'm fine if Iguodala/Turner/Lou push the action off of missed baskets. That's simply playing to your team's strengths. But I'm 100% opposed to having half the game where the set offense where Lou or Iguodala is the point" while Jrue is the SG. Why make a good young PG into a lousy SG? Its like taking a great pitching prospect and turning him into a catcher because he has a strong arm and you lack catchers.

I disagree with a lot of this from a philosophical viewpoint.

* While Collins said in the pre-season that he sees a future top-5 point guard in Jrue, Jrue hasn't shown at any time this year (even at his best) that he's a future top-5 point guard. Thus, he's not such a special talent that you would fit everyone else's roles into a specific framework so that he can flourish.

* Since Iguodala became point-forward, there is no question that the team has played better than at any other point this year. They are 4-2 in their last 6, 5 of them against playoff teams. And Iguodala has 50 assists to 9 turnovers in those 6 games (even counting the 5 he had last game).

* The difference in seeding from 6th to 8th may not mean much, but the difference between 8th and 9th means a lot. I don't fault Collins for putting together a gameplan that maximizes the team's chances of making the playoffs.

* Whatever your thoughts about Jrue's potential, his clutch numbers right now are hard to argue: his assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch situations is under 1 this year. How many wins do you sacrifice by keeping the ball in his hands down the stretch?

* Finally, Jrue's defense -- probably the most disappointing thing about his game this year -- has been inconsistent at best and downright poor at worst. He's always had trouble keeping track of his man floating out for 3's, but he's not even doing that well at his strength, on-ball defense (Jameer Nelson got into the lane numerous times on him last game, for example). So his defense has not been good enough to keep him on the court when his offense struggles.

As I've said before, I like Jrue, a lot actually. But I don't see the need for the rest of the team to be adjusted to fit his game.

Thus, he's not such a special talent that you would fit everyone else's roles into a specific framework so that he can flourish.

That's a flawed conclusion ignoring the xperience and age level of Jrue Holiday - he's still one of the youngest players in the league.

Concluding that he's not a special talent at this point in his career is silly.

Especially on a team first coached by an idiot and now coached by a man who I think is only coaching one game at a time and not for the future of this franchise

Completely agree with this. I believe Jrue is the guy to continue to build with, and also the best thing for him would be for Lou to be shipped out. And as far as the coach goes he should learn to live with a couple of turnovers and give Jrue the ball cause that's where his future is. Any halfway decent coach would look like a genius following one of the worst coaches in history, I'm getting tired of people just accepting that Collins knows everything thats best for the team.

Just from looking at the two games I tracked for who's initiating offense, if they got rid of Lou and even split his possessions between Jrue and Iguodala, that would be more than enough. Lou is essentially dominating the ball every time he's on the floor at this point. That's a problem for me.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 12:34
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But I put the Lou and Iguodala parts together. Collins got tired of losing close games, so he went to his vets. That means Lou handling in the 4th and now Iguodala handling more throughout the game.

Jrue will make stupid mistakes. He might continue to for 2-3 more years. Iguodala made too many unforced TO's for his first 5 seasons as a pro. Its only this past 18 months where Iguodala learned to cut down on stupid turnovers- and Jrue might take almost as many years. The problem is that sine this whole playoff BS, Collins has lost his patience for Jrue's natural learning curve. And IMO that is a fatal flaw when you look at this team long term.

That's a flawed conclusion ignoring the xperience and age level of Jrue Holiday - he's still one of the youngest players in the league. Concluding that he's not a special talent at this point in his career is silly.

To be clear, I wasn't saying that he will never be a special talent. I was saying he isn't a special talent right now, i.e., hasn't shown it in his play thus far. I've seen flashes of scoring ability, but not like Wall, and passing ability, but not like Paul or Deron when they came in the league. Has what you've seen of Jrue given you greater optimism?

But I also don't agree with the implied logic that youth and inexperience prevent observers from making reasonable projections about a player's career arc based on their performance to date. With your line of reasoning, Memphis can't say for sure about Xavier Henry (almost a year younger than Jrue) and Utah can't say for sure about Gordon Heyward (a few months older than Jrue) -- should those teams build around those players?

* Whatever your thoughts about Jrue's potential, his clutch numbers right now are hard to argue: his assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch situations is under 1 this year. How many wins do you sacrifice by keeping the ball in his hands down the stretch?

Kobes clutch numbers say he sucks at it

You want to not give the ball to Kobe in the clutch in a Lakers game?

Clutch Stats are rapidly becoming the RISP of the NBA - small sample size stats full of noise that people use to mean something when really they don't

Clutch Stats are rapidly becoming the RISP of the NBA - small sample size stats full of noise that people use to mean something when really they don't

To be clear, small sample size in itself is not the problem. You can come up with a fairly tight confidence interval with a relatively small number of samples (depending on variance, of course) -- provided the samples come from the same underlying distribution as the parameter you are trying to estimate. I think your complaint is more along the lines of "not all clutch situations are alike," which is a fair point. The one commonality is that in all clutch situations, pressure is higher and all (or most) players are trying their hardest and paying closest attention.

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Court_visioN reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 12:20
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I think a lot of Jrue's struggles defensively, and the team defensively in general, is the Sixers' bigs aren't great at hedging the screen and forcing the guard to take one step out. Everytime there's a pick it almost ends up being a switch because the guard turns the corner and attacks and it's at least a couple seconds before Jrue can recover and the big gets back to his man. I don't have Synergy or whatever to back this up, this is just my impressions from watching the games. Maybe somebody can re-watch pick and roll plays vs. the Sixers in the next couple of games (San Antonio's going to play it a lot) and see how the Sixers defend it?

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tk76 reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 12:25
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Jrue was playing great at PG. His numbers were trending towards being borderline historic for a 20 year old. But since he has been taken off the ball he's struggled. Why make him struggle? Is your thinking that this team would only thrive with Iguodala at "point forward?" If that is the case, you might as well try and trade Jrue for a Monte Ellis type scorer.

We are not talking about forcing Turner to adapt to being off the ball- because that will have to be his futuire in the NBA. he is not a PG. But Jrue is a PG, and taking the ball out of his hands is basically saying you don't want a PG on this team- and Iguodala and Lou are the PG's of this team.

Jrue was playing great at PG. His numbers were trending towards being borderline historic for a 20 year old.

This is what I missed when it was happening. Do you have the evidence to back up this statement? (I'm not being sarcastic; I genuinely want to see the numbers.) I wasn't aware that he was playing "great" at PG. When I did his rankings a few weeks ago (before the point forward thing but perhaps after being taken off the ball in the 4th), he wasn't above average for starting PG's at anything except minutes per game.

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Tray reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 13:23
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I think the claim is that his numbers were borderline historic for a 20 year old PG.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 13:48
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Yep. Playing slightly above average NBA PG at age 20 is incredibly rare.

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tk76 reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 13:47
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Being an average NBA PG at age 20 puts him in very exclusive company.

For Nov 5th - Jan 11th = 32 games that span from the game Iguodala initially left for Achilles pain before halftime to the game after he returned (Iguodala was very much off the ball his 1st game back.)

In those 32 games Jrue averaged:
http://nba.phillyarena.com/last/?last=32&startdate=2011-01-11

15.1/6.9/4 on 45% shooting

Equivalent production in NBA players up to age 20:
Lebron
Magic
no one else...ever

Expanding to players age 22 and under to average 14/6.9/4 and 44%+ shooting for a season: http://bkref.com/tiny/a3bfG

Lebron James
Isiah Thomas
Derrick Rose
Oscar Robertson
Chris Paul
Magic Johnson X 3
Kevin Johnson

So from game 6 of the season until Iguodala returned game 38, Jrue's numbers were in that elite company. Would you not call that near-historic production?

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 14:42
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And dialing back the criteria to Jrue's current 13.5/6.3/3.9 and 43%, here are the players who managed the same for a season:

age 20 and under:
Lebron
Magic
Rose
Jrue

age 21 and under... add
Chris Paul
Isiah

age 22 and under.... add
Francis
Penny
Kenny Anderson
Matc Jackson
Kevin Johnson
Oscar
Westbrook

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 14:48
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And another:

Players up to age 22 to have a season with 13.5/6.34/3.9 and less than 2.9 TO's:


Jrue Holiday
Chris Paul
Baron Davis
Kenny Anderson

with Jrue and Chris Pual the only ones age 20 or under.


So from game 6 of the season until Iguodala returned game 38, Jrue's numbers were in that elite company. Would you not call that near-historic production?

The company is elite ... and the numbers don't look that elite, but they are in combination. basketball-reference.com only lists 102 seasons like that by any player at any age. However, I wonder how effective identifying "historic seasons" is in general at evaluating a player's play. For example, Iguodala's current levels in those 4 categories have only been matched 64 times in NBA history, 56 of those seasons coming from Hall-of-Famers or future HOFers, but no one would say he is playing at "Hall of Fame" level.

Again, when I did the analysis a few weeks ago (Jan. 19), Jrue ranked no higher than 15th out of 30 starting PGs in the league in any of the major categories except offensive rebound rate and total rebound rate, and his rankings were mostly in the 20's. Overall, he not an average point guard, he is a below-average point guard.

But I guess you have convinced me that the total package of what he gave during that 33 game stretch was impressive. Impressive enough to wade through mistakes and sacrifice X number of games while waiting for that performance to return? I'm not completely sure ...


I'm not sure you can really say you'd be sacrificing wins. He's performed very, very well when given the reigns.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 15:00
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Just look at WS/48 for guards who play 32+ min/g:

Age 20 or under as good or better than Jrue:
Magic
Chris Paul
Tony Parker
Marbury
Kobe
Rose
Eric Gordon

Age 21:
Baron
MJ
Isiah
Iguodala
Arenas
Westbrook
Rose
Bibby
Jennings

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Tray reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 15:36
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How many twenty year old point guards have there really ever been? I just don't think it means that much; I refuse to believe he's going to be anything like LeBron, Magic, Paul, or even Rose because at the same age he's done some of the same things. Like first of all, all of those guys were doing significantly more at 20 - it's not like they were averaging 13, 6 and 4. It's like saying, "wow, America, China and India are the only countries with 300 million people or more. America must be just like China!" No, China has 1.3 billion people - they're not the same at all.

Well, they're the same in that they're the three biggest countries. If these numbers are saying Jrue will rank just below those guys, but won't produce at nearly the same level, I'm fine w/ that.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 15:42
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That's why I said, "as good or better than Jrue."

It might actually help to see the guys who were a bit worse:

Age 21 or under, Min 32 min/g. WS/48 0.79 or less, sorter by highest (Jrue) to lowest:

http://bkref.com/tiny/GTAbg

Interesting. And, of course, the main issue we've been talking about here is how his play has degraded since this shift. Prior to the change, his ws48 was over .100.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 15:52
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Yeah, so for guys 21 and under he's superior in WS/48 to complete seasons of:

Rose
Curry
Marbuuy
Iverson
Jenning
Monte Ellis
Kidd
Eric Gordon
Wall
OJ Mayo
Westbrook
Tyreke Evans

That is VERY promising.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 15:54
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That is not to say Jrue will be better than all of those players. But statistically his current season is more impressive (measured by WS/48.)

This is all to say that his production has been very impressive, taking his age and heavy load into account.

Pretty sure there shouldn't be a g in there. Oh well.

Jrue will be KING

I'm not sure you can really say you'd be sacrificing wins. He's performed very, very well when given the reigns.

I'm in agreement that -- in general -- I'd rather have Jrue running the offense than Lou when it's not Iguodala, especially in the 2nd quarter. I don't think anyone can argue, based on the actual results, that the point forward experiment isn't producing the best basketball (on offense) that we've seen from the Sixers this season. So in that sense, going back to Jrue instead of Iguodala (and I assume we're talking mainly about the 4th quarter -- Jrue still has plenty of opportunities to run the offense in the first 3 quarters) would be sacrificing wins. Now, one could argue that Iguodala's play won't continue at this level, which is possible ...


For me, the question is more about Lou's possessions than Iguodala's. In the games I've tracked, Jrue has gotten the majority of possessions in his run in the first and his run in the third, and basically nothing in the 2nd and 4th quarters. When Jrue and Iguodala are on the floor w/out Lou, it's pretty much 2-to-1 in favor of Jrue over Iguodala. They work pretty well together, and even when Iguodala is initiating, Jrue is still involved. Iguodala does a good job of finding him. When Lou is on the floor, though, Jrue is seriously just standing in the corner doing nothing, and Lou almost never passes the ball to him, unless he's stuck on a wing and needs someone to bail him out.

I don't have a problem w/ the point-forward thing at all, and I think it's working pretty well when it's just Jrue and AI9 on the floor together, when Lou gets thrown in the mix, though, that's when Jrue's involvement shrivels up. He may as well not be on the floor on the offensive end.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 15:31
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I agree, this would be less an issue if Lou was not playing point 1/3rd of the game.

I think it's closer to 1/2 the game now, or at least 1/2 the half court possessions, mostly because Lou is the only guy who intentionally slows the ball down and forces the team into the half court when he gets the ball in the back court. Iguodala, Jrue and Turner all look to push the ball up the floor consistently. Lou will only do it when he's got a 1-on-0 or 2-on-1 advantage. Otherwise, he's psyched to play the iso game in the half court, and he lets everyone jog back down the floor and get settled.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 15:37
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I see almost no difference between Lou's current style of play and what I remember during the Iverson years.

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tk76 reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 15:30
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I think its still too early to judge the "point Forward" experiment. The team had modest success prior to Collins officially making Iguodala the "cornerstone" point forward.

They are 3W 2L since Collins announced the change. They were also 4W 1L the prior 5 games.

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tk76 reply to Statman on Feb 11 at 12:28
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As per the defense, I think people way over-rated Jrue's defense last year. He has the tools and the effort, but he was not that effective because he still has a ton to learn about how to handle crafty PG's. Maybe his effort appears to be down a bit- but I partly attribute that to him wanting to avoid ticky-tack fouls.

But if you look at the numbers (like opponent's PER) Jrue has never been a great defensive PG. He's always just been a potentially great defender- and this year is no different.

I see his defense as inconsistent more than anything. It's not that he has the size and skill but he just doesn't get the job done. It's that he's great sometimes and poor sometimes. There was a stretch of games immediately after Iguodala's return where he was unbelievable, in some really tough matchups. Then there was a lapse. It's not that much different from his offensive game, really.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 12:36
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He has pretty consistence been good at stopping isolation penetration (despite some inevitable break downs against smaller/quicker PG's.) He has consistently struggled working around picks, and getting back to his man when they spot up.

This is actually a really interesting question. If you had to choose between Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams, who would you choose?

PA results, 60% Williams, 40% Sloan

Interesting since there's so much vocalization from the fans that exist blaming players all the time.

I have to believe there's a middle ground here because the jazz are better with both of them.

Coupler other things I heard this morning

1. If Sloan is 58 instead of 68/69 - maybe it doesn't bother him so much
2. An ongoing problem that Williams had is that the Sloan didn't practice enough, watch enough film, and with the team floundering he thought more work was necessary, more dedication to practice and film to fix the flaws

2. An ongoing problem that Williams had is that the Sloan didn't practice enough, watch enough film, and with the team floundering he thought more work was necessary, more dedication to practice and film to fix the flaws

Wow, I'd expect that to be reversed. I think Sloan had pretty much had it w/ the front office, to be honest. That team has let so many players walk away, and then they brought in Al Jefferson. Maybe he checked out.

Gun to my head, I have to choose one or the other, I think you have to go with Deron Williams.

If I'm forced to choose I choose Williams just because the NBA is a players league more so than in the NFL (Belichik wins with pretty much other teams rejects). Williams is also younger and Sloan may have been getting to the retirement age anyway.

I believe the second quote I gave you was from Bucher on M&M this morning.

Choose Deron because it's not easy to find a really good point gurad, and as great a coach as Sloan was, he was a couple years from retirement anyway.

Practically, Deron. Deron might have more years left with the jazz than Sloan, because of his age.

But, in principle, Sloan, if only for precedent. How can any coach come in and have the players attention and respect when the front office sided with a player over a coach who has been there 23 years ?

Fair point.

Is anyone else kind of shocked by this whole thing?

I only expected Jerry Sloan to leave when his health no longer permitted him to coach.

The past year for the Jazz has me baffled. Everything from player moves to this doesn't seem to be in line with how they run things. Letting Matthews and Korver go, getting Jefferson. It's like they made the decision to move away from Sloan's influence a while ago, and this is the culmination of it.

I'm quite shocked yeah, but I think the Jefferson trade should have been a harbinger. Jeff ain't a sloan guy, and possibly if 'dad' was still alive, the Jefferson trade might never have been made.

The son is now the owner and I think trying to put his stamp on the franchise, and unfortunately, I don't think he has a clue what he's doing

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Tray reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 13:08
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Yeah, I find it pretty shocking. And in answer to the poll question, in a vacuum, I'd choose Williams, but in the real world, Williams will probably leave anyway.

A fun game to play

Look at each NBA roster, indicate the guys you WOULDNT trade straight up For Carmelo Anthony

Where does Carmelo fall in your top 20?

Not sure he's in the top 20, but somewhere behind Iguodala.

yet he's going to get 22 mil per year if he signs that extension :)

Who else makes 20+ in the NBA today and is worth it?

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 11 at 12:39
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That includes the 20M+ salary he will be getting next year?

Ignore the salary match up - just look at players - what players would you trade straight up for Carmelo on a given roster.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 11 at 12:55
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I would take Melo over everyone at SF other than Lebron.

Melo's PER differential year in and year out is near the top for SF's. It is +9.6 this year. It was +10.1 last year.

I don't find PER to be particularly useful, so basing rankings on PER differential doesn't do it for me.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 13:01
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Its imperfect, but gives a decent sense of who is winning a match-up on most given nights. Iguodala has been top 4 at SF by this measure for many years.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 12:59
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Iguodala is +9.8 this year. But over the last few years Melo has had a significantly higher PER differential.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 13:15
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So does this not jibe with your general sense of these players?

This season, PER differential for notable SF's
----------------------------------------------
Iguodala 9.8
Melo 9.6
Pierce 10.9 (prior year 4.5)
Lebron 15.4
D. Wright 0.7
Granger 5.6
Deng 1.9
Gay 6.9
Galinari -1.5
Durant 10.6
Hill 0
Butler 3.7

To me those numbers fit almost perfectly with my impression of how good they are as SF's. So even if the methodology is a bit flawed, its the closest I can find to see how players match up on both ends at a given position.
Ariza -4.3

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 13:18
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Best to worse at SF by PER differential:

Lebron
Durant
Peirce
Iguodala
Melo
Gay
Granger
Butler
Deng

Everyone else is neutral or a loser at the SF match-up.

So are these rankings that far off in your opinion?

OK, I'll bite. Forgetting salary, here's the most I would give up for each team. 1 player for 1 player:

ATL - Joe Johnson. Melo's better, imo. Horford, Smith, Melo, Crawford is better than what they have now.
BOS - Tough one. I'd probably rather have Melo than Pierce, mostly due to age.
CHI - Deng.
CLE - Anyone on the roster.
DAL - Terry, I guess.
DET - Anyone on the roster.
GSW - Monta
HOU - Scola, I guess.
IND - Granger
LAC - Davis/Kaman.
LAL - Bynum/Artest
MEM - Gay
MIL - Maggette
MIN - Beasley
NJN - Anyone on the roster
NOH - West
NYK - Gallinari
OKC - Jeff Green
ORL - Anyone but Dwight
PHI - Brand or Turner, not both.
POR - Roy or Aldridge
SAC - Anyone on the roster
SAS - Jefferson
TOR - Anyone on the roster
UTA - AK47, Jefferson
WAS - Anyone but Wall.

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Tray reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 13:10
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That all looks about right, but I'd trade Jennings for Melo, not just Maggette.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 11 at 12:42
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And the salary is interesting, because it has 2 effects:

1. From a cap standpoint it's easier to build with Iguodala at 13M than Melo at 23M.

2. From a revenue standpoint, Melo is a player wiyth enough cachet to where he "earns" the extra money. he's not worth 50-80M in indirect and direct revenue like Lebron or Kobe, but he is more revenue friendly than Iguodala.

This comp has changed quite a bit since Iguodala got healthy.

But they average 20 or more points - Iguodala doesn't

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Shawn reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 13:46
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If Iguodala's FT % was just a bit higher, his PPG would go up quite a bit.

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johnrosz on Feb 11 at 13:36
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thinking about heading to the game tonight. sixers.com is a joke, somehow two 15 dollar tickets comes out to a total of 52 dollars...

Is that sixers.com or is that ticketmaster up fees - ticketmaster is a racket that should be pummeled

Stub Hub has a lot of tickets for tonight - m ight do better there?

http://www.stubhub.com/philadelphia-76ers-tickets/76ers-vs-spurs-2-11-2011-986519/

Here's a kind of smart, kind of weird piece on Jrue:

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2011/02/09/lost-in-space/

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Tray reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 14:13
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Nevermind, you already linked to it.


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