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A Bump In the Road, Hopefully

Quality writeup as always Brian! Can't get too upset about this one when the 2010 76ers finished with 27 wins and this team is already at 26...

If Turner wasn't the 2nd overall pick he'd never be seeing any burn with some of these statlines. How useless do you need to be to go 2/2/0 in 26 minutes? NBA ready my ass.

His previous like 11 games were fine. He had a bad game yesterday. You really think 1 terrible game after 11 fine games means he'd never play if he weren't the #2 pick? Who is going to take his minutes, Kapono?

Interchange Wall with Turner on the Wiz and Turner would be putting up the same points and assists but would have more rebounds and less turnovers. Turner shoots the same % as Wall, just gets way less shots, because Turner is on a playoff team and Wall is on a D-league team. Turner has sick passing skills, plays good D, rebounds great, and has amazing ball control for a rookie. That gets you minutes in the NBA regardless of your draft slot.

Whoever pays Marc Gasol big $$$ this offseason is going to get burned - doughy and unathletic, anything above the MLE is too much.

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brett waller on Feb 16 at 8:53
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just curious? why is when we win its because of iggys great defense. but when we loose its not because of iggys inability to be a consistant scorer/leader on the court? just curious.

I think Brian said our losing had something to do with how Iguodala played.

I swear people would rather see Iguodala (or any player for that matter) take 30 possessions to score 25 points than 10 possessions to score 9.

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Tray reply to Joe on Feb 16 at 9:57
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Well maybe, for two reasons. One reason is that if Iguodala used 30 possessions in a game, even badly, people would say, "well, at least he's willing to take on the burden. If he always uses them that inefficiently, I don't want him to keep doing it, but my hope is that next time he uses 30 possessions to score 35 points." The second reason is that people accept a lower rate of efficiency from high-usage guys, the theory being that someone like Kobe takes all the tough shots that his teammates don't attempt, and that if a Kobe were to take less shots, his teammates' efficiency on the tougher shots they'd now be forced to take might be even worse. Now, I don't buy that as a general matter, but on some teams it may be true. For example, Iverson was a gunner on the Finals team, and a pretty inefficient one, but if he had taken a more reasonable number of shots, I can imagine that whoever picked up the slack - Snow, Jumaine Jones, Lynch, Hill, etc. - would've made those shots at an even worse rate than Iverson, that their efficiency would fall off to ridiculously low levels at higher rates of usage.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Feb 16 at 10:29
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Good explanation. The only issue I have is why fans continue to hope Iguodala will blossom into that type of player. I realize he has a big contract, but even a casual observer can tell he lacks the smoothness and scoring knack to ever be a successful high volume scorer.


Its like having a great shortstop who hits for average and complaining that he does not hit 40 home runs. Just because Iguodala has great athleticism does not mean its the type of athleticism that translates into a great scorers touch or eve a great first step.

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jkay reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 10:47
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it's set in stone; fans will always believe what they want to believe.
I believe we saw the failed experiment like 2-3 seasons ago.
Now Lou on the other hand...you might have something. he'll take every shot you can give him. and make a bunch too.

The only issue I have is why fans continue to hope Iguodala will blossom into that type of player.

Most people are idiots

Fans are made up of people

Most fans are idiots

It's a pretty simple idea


The Philadelphia 76ers have struggled to find a trade for shooter Jason Kapono, who has fallen out of Doug Collins’ rotation. The Sixers could be willing to work a buyout for Kapono after the deadline, sources said. Yahoo! Sports

Yahoo Sports

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 11:04
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Why trade him when you can save a few hundred thousand by buying him out.

They can't find a trading partner because they won't take any contracts back that go past this year.

That's not possible, I'm told comcast is a corporation with deep pockets that would be willing to spend to improve the team.

I wish they'd buy out nocioni and songaila too

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 11:14
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If they had not made the Sam trade...

They would have a legit defensive center. They would also have a 7M more free cap-space for next year- so they would be in a position to move a current expiring for a long term player who matters (say someone like Mayo.)

But Hawes is so much better offensively.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 11:24
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It's hard to fathom a worse center combo than Hawes/Speights/Battie/Songalia. No present and no future.

You mean Hawes/Battie/Brand/Songaila/Nocioni/Speights as a center rotation right?

(I'm going in order of usage)

Seriously, I understand Collins and the whole coaching methodology - but Speights behind Songaila is just stupid

What do you guys think of Memphis? After last night's game, I'm about ready jump on the bandwagon... They played the Sixers game, only a lot better.

Definitely a fun team to watch.

Well, since I'm a fan of the sixers, I tend not to be a bandwagon type fan of any team.

As for the Grizzlies, yes they're very 'exciting' - and what with over paying Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, plus the fact that they're already looking to trade Zach and their owners history of stupidity, I expect them to be perennial contenders in the west

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tk76 reply to raro on Feb 16 at 11:21
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Also like the Sixers, they are built on a shaky foundation. Gay's contract will end up being a burden similar to Iguodala's. Randolph will likely be a 30 year old they sign to a big extension (think Brand.) They have tough decision regarding other extensions (Gasol this year and Mayo the next) leaving them potentially capped out with only a decent team.

I do like that they are playing hard and there pieces fit together better than the Sixers. But I'm not sure if they ever get past 50 wins.

They're shopping Zach now. There's no way Heisley signs Zach to the extension he wants, Gasol to the extension he gets AND pays Gay and Conley that money.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 11:26
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If that's the case...

Raro, how do you feel about the Grizzlies without Randolph?

Conley
Mayo?
Gay
Arthur
Gasol

Does not seem very formidable.

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raro reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 11:56
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Couple of clarifying comments:

1. Being a 'bandwagon fan' of the Grizzlies doesn't really have anything to do with their ownership, contracts, or future. When it comes to worrying about those pieces, I have enough on my plate with the Sixers.

2. I enjoyed watching their defense and general hustle. Randolph and Gasol are both decent passers for big men so you kind of have a Lakers redux frontline, which is always fun to watch. They also seemed to genuinely enjoy playing with each other.

3. @tk76. Losing Randolph is going to hurt. But that's the thing about being a bandwagon fan - I don't have to worry about the post Randolph era. I'm kind of hoping they keep the team together for this season just to see how much damage they might do in the playoffs...

Sixers can match last year's win total by beating Rockets:

http://ow.ly/3XATA

Quick best guess survey:

Looking at the next 3 years of playoffs (through Brand's contract): 2011/12/13

What are the chances the Sixers:

1. Make the playoffs all 3 years?
2. Make it out of the 1st round?
3. Make it to the conference Finals (3rd round)?

1. (barring major injuries) 85%
2. 25%
3. 0%

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 12:08
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Obviously a ton of variables effect this. Comcast/management, coaching, player development, other team's moves, the new CBA...

My guess is:

1. 60% chance they make the playoffs all 3 years
2. 10% chance they get past the 1st round (helps if you get a #5 seed at some point.)
3. 1% chance they make it past the 2nd round to the conference finals.

Less confidence than me huh? That's unusual

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 12:13
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I think I've been one of the bigger long term pessimists/realist here for years. Partly because my belief that you can't get fat without a high level foundation.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 12:15
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Correction: you can get "fat"... but you can't go "far."

BTW, I would be incredibly enthused to see this tema make the 2nd round./ The '89 Barkley/Mahorn team only made the 2nd round, and that was one of my favorite Sixers seasons.

Oh come on - no ones a bigger negative nelly than me - just ask anyone :)

Seriously though - I really think in the east this roster (even with Hawes at center) is a perpetual playoff team - look at it this way - who do you see ascendant in the next 3 years to knock them out?

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 12:27
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They might make moves to knock themselves out (Brand/Iguodala trades in 1-2 years). Or injuries, or they could just miss.

Thad might be gone. Turner might not develop into anything. Brand or Iguodala might get hurt. A combination of 2 of those things makes a playoff birth tenuous.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 12:11
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One more question:

4. Do you believe there are moves available to Thorn that would raise their chance of getting top the conference finals at some point in that 3 year span above 20%?

I say no.

Progression of Jrue and Evan combined with a center upgrade and the aging of the Celtics and the fact that the heat really aren't going to be able to improve after the new CBA (in my opinion) would improve their chances I think.

I just don't see them making a real center upgrade.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 12:16
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Yeah, if they can somehow win the Atlantic division the 3 seed would really help. But I'm not seeing a decent center on the horizon. Not without trading away Iguodala- which weakens your core.

1. 75%. If there are no injurees or unforeseen events that will significantly strengthen the eastern conference they should make the playoffs.
2. 50%. They have a decent chance of making it past the first round at least once if Holiday and Turner keep improving or they make a significant trade. I expect at least one of the two to happen in the next 3 years. Boston, Atlanta and Orlando have a good shot to drop out of the race in the same time period for a variety of reasons.
3. 10%. Unlikely but possible if they get lucky with a trade or in the draft.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Feb 16 at 12:29
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I'm glad to see some optimism. I'd prefer to be wrong.

4. Very likely. A lot of stuff happen in the NBA over the span of 3 years. This year has a lot of unknowns because of the pending CBA agreement, but from next season onwards a lot of guys will be made available and the SIxers will have the required young talent and picks to acquire them.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Feb 16 at 12:34
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I agree that impact players/centers will be made available.

But I also believe that Thorn's hands will be tied because the team will have a cap on their spending from Comcast- unless the new CBA somehow gives them an out.

I believe the new CBA will give them an out - but it will also the cap/tax level and thus they'll still be spending less.

I think Thad gets an extension (too much money) , I think Hawes is gone, I think Brand is the 'new cba cost saving casualty', I think Jrue and Turner get extensions at the end of their rookie deals.

Not sure how much money they will have left at all.

Can you win an nba title without paying the luxury tax?

I think if the Sixers can make a trade that can push them past the first round of the playoffs and in the 50+ win region in the regular season, Comcast will spend money to do it. The team that we had in the past few seasons (mediocre team full of veterans) wasn't at the level to warrant spending. This team (hopefully) is different because it has a lot of young guys that have a good chance to improve.

Until Comcast (and the sixers) stop making moves to save money instead of making basketball sense (one year to miller, Dalembert trade) I'll believe they're willing to spend money. However, at this point the whole 'they'd be willing to spend to win' is a pure pipe dream fantasy to me.

Here's a question for you. Is an outside chance at winning a round in the playoffs this season worth between say, $6M-$10M to Comcast?

That depends - how much money does comcast make per playoff game. Do they make more in the second round because fans show up?

Lets say 5 playoff games in 2 rounds - at 2 million per - that's 10 mil.

PLUS (maybe) an increase in season ticket sales and a gate increase in the next season (or two) if it's sustainable?

I suppose it might be - but would it 'only' cost 6-10 million dollars more? IN contract terms that's only 3-5 million over the luxury tax isn't it?

DOn't NBA teams under the tax get a payout - or is it cap?

They get a payout as far as i know. The whole luxury tax is distributed between teams under the cap.

Maybe... But i don't think they have a realistic shot at beating Boston, Miami or Chicago if they are healthy, no matter who they trade for. There is no player available that can take them past those teams right now.

Do you think that somehow kevin garnett, ray allen, and paul pierce are immortal and won't get old?

Are you really scared of a team built around rajon rondo and kendrick perkins?

I think Brians question was regarding this season only. This year is their last year i think when they are really competitive. Next year they will drop off slightly and will completely fall of in two years.

Yeah, that's why I said outside chance.

Damn it, time to go to the optometrist.

This season. Nope

There's a rumor floating with no basis in fact (that I can see) that if the celtics win again this year you might see the end of the big 3.

But they could obtain a center without paying 'much' extra this year couldn't they? Then next year maybe it's a lock out and they don't have to pay anyone anything?

I was going to save this for a post at a later date, and I'll probably revisit, but the discussions seems lively, so let's kick it around.

Troy Murphy, Rip Hamilton. Those are two guys who will probably be bought out after the trade deadline. The Sixers have the full MLE and their playoff ticket will probably be punched. They're about $1M under the luxury tax at this point. They can absolutely enter the bidding for either or both those guys. The prorated MLE for the final 20-25 games or so would be what, $1.3M-$1.5M? Say they add $3M in payroll, that pushes them $2M over the luxury tax, times two for the LT payment is $4M. Plus losing the rev. share, which is $3M, I think. That's $7M.

Could they possibly recoup that money? Would they consider it a good investment? Do they definitely look at every basketball move in terms of P&L? Should they?

I know everyone here loves troy murphy - and hawes sucks - but he doesn't help with what I need the team to get improvement in.

I don't believe Rip's getting bought out. He's got another year PLUS a buyout (according to storytellers) and the Pistons are in buyout flux. I would have traded for Rip already with his contract as is so if he's bought out go get him - but I don't htink he's bought out.

I don't think either player gives the sixers a first round win this year though because I don't think they can win a round unless they are in the 4/5 thing.

These guys are probably really out of shape - troy murphy especially - how long would it take em to be game ready?

I seriously doubt Murphy or Hamilton will sign a one year deal for a non contender (read: Sixers).

Actually, my guess is they will seek multiple year contracts from anyone and i think signing them beyond this year is a bad idea long term. No matter the financial implications this year and Comcast's willingness to spend.

Oh, and neither Murphy nor Hamilton can get the Sixers aout of the first round. They are not really what the team needs.

Guys who get bought out never get multi-year deals. Ever. They sign on somewhere, hopefully rebuild their value, then become free agents the following summer. I defy you to find me a single instance where something else happened in this situation.

And name me one that has signed a one year minimum deal in February with a non-contender (assuming he is still capable of playing).

Btw, Murphy i think will get bought out if the Nets can't trade him, and he will sign with the Magic. He can get as much playing time in Orlando as he can in Philly. The playoff exposure will be a bonus.

So in their attempt to get a defensive big man to back up Dwight Howard the Magic are going to sign Troy Murphy?

There is nothing that suggests they will only sign a defensive oriented big man to spell Howard. Murphy can rebound and is a perfect fit in their offense. I even think there have already been rumors about that.

Where did Joe Smith go last year? MIL or ATL?

And I didn't say they sign for the minimum, I said they sign for a prorated portion of the MLE, to a team that hasn't used their full MLE. Pretty sure Orlando doesn't have their MLE, they had to use it to match Chicago's offer sheet for JJ Redick. So Murphy would be signing for the pro-rated minimum if he went to Orlando, which would be like 20% of about $1M. The Sixers could offer 20% of $5.8M, as could anyone else who has their MLE remaining. Not sure if ORL has their bi-annual available to them.

Orlando has the MLE as far as i'm concerned. They don't need the MLE to match an offer on their own restricted free agents.

Besides a lot of guys in they stage of their careers opt for a chance at a title rather then a million or two more.

How old do you think troy murphy is?

30+ i guess.

Again, if you can get him on a one year deal at any price go for it (even though he is not what we need and he won't improve the team a lot, if at all). I just don't think it's possible.

I'm not sure you understand how guys who get bought out work - but you should check the history.

I bet you 95% of the time (or more) a bought out contract around the trade deadline signs for the end of the year on a pro rated salary - and that's it. Why is it you think Troy Murphy won't take that?

He'll be happy to take it as New Jersey has killed his basketball value this year (for reasons passing understanding)

Why is it you think Troy Murphy won't take that?

Because i don't think playing 25 minutes will increase his value more than playing 10-15 on a contender. Or at least my bet is Murphy doesn't think that.

Come on name me one guy (whom contenders liked) that has signed for a team that had no shot at making past the first round of the playoffs. I seriously can't find one...

And Smith wasn't bought out last year. He finished the year in ATL, who was a far bigger contender than the current Sixers.

That's not really the point.

Troy Murphy isn't at the end of his career - he turns 31 this year.

he's been benched all year

he probably is more worried about his long term future than playing for the magic (who no one believes have a shot at making the ECF even with troy murphy) and the slim slim shot at an nba title, plus the nets have been bashing him all season so he's out of game shape. He needs to go to a team that is in desperate need of a center upgrade so he can get minutes, play into shape and show teams he's still productive so he can get a new free agent contract.

On which team is that more likely? The one starting dwight howard or the one starting spencer hawes?

He needs to go to a team that is in desperate need of a center upgrade so he can get minutes

This is the most troubling to me. Since when is Murphy a C? He can play C sporadically, but he is a PF. He's a worse shot blocker and possibly defender than Hawes... And a defensive center who can block shots, rebound and finish inside strong is what we need.

Obviously, Murphy isn't an ideal solution, but this team is markedly better with a front court of Brand/Murphy than it is with Brand/Hawes, no matter who is playing the five in the former. Murphy spreads the floor in reality, not just in bullshit PR spin, like Hawes. He's also been a dominant defensive rebounder over the past three years.

I agree about Murphy's strengths. I'm not sure though that his presence instead of Hawes will actually appear in the win column by more than 2 games. And that means nothing to the team...

Over the final 20 games of the season, a couple extra wins probably doesn't mean a whole lot. In a playoff series, though, having a legitimate big who can shoot the three in the 8-man rotation instead of Hawes could get you a game you otherwise wouldn't have had. At a minimum, having him out there would create more room for AI, Jrue, Lou, ET and Thad to work in the half court offense than Hawes does. I think Collins could do something with that. Probably doesn't equal a first-round win, but gives them a better chance.

And possibly an extra home game (game six) in the first round

Their MLE is gone. You were right, they used the Early-Bird for Redick. But they split their MLE between Q Richardson and Chris Duhon.

If they're bought out - no one is giving them a long term deal until the off season - they're just getting minimum deals until the end of the season.

As far as who they sign with, they'll probably sign with whomever they feel gives them the most minutes so they can re-establish a market value and hit free agency.

For Murphy - is there a better place than philadlephia where hawes sucks, Speights is in the deep deep doughouse and songaila stinks and battie is old and rickety.

Hamilton sends Meeks to the bench but can he be the outside threat meeks is and how does it affect turner?

if Troy Murphy is guaranteed 25-30 mins on sixers he might be interested over a contender. He has to be thinking about his next contract and what this year has done to his value. The sixers might be a perfect opportunity for him.


No shot the sixers end up getting rip though.


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