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Focus On This One

After last nights poor showing, and the time to prepare for it, and the 'revenge' factor (if you believe in such things) I have no faith this team will show up ready for any game and I blame Collins if they don't.

Rich reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 14:41


Blame Collins? A bit - if a team comes out completely flat like last night - the entire roster - that's a coaching thing to me - everyone pretty much stunk last night - not just one guy.

Tonight - up to Collins to get them back up off the mat after yesterday.

A big part of coaching is figuring out how to get your roster to maintain focus over the long ass season...so yeah, if they come out flat again tonight, I'm blaming collins (and everyone else is going to blame iguodala)

Well, if they do come out flat tonight, that would pretty much be the first time they haven't immediately responded after a bad loss.

I'm still pretty perturbed about how they came out last night - it was awful for most of the game - and they had a couple days off after a huge win and the wolves game - there's really no excuse unless the entire team has the flu or food poisoning.

Rich reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 14:54

Iguodala was terrible last night, can't sugarcoat that. He was a big part of the reason the team lost last night. Just like Collins, he needs to move on.

It is interesting to see the extremely high standards you hold Collins to while trying to talk down win expectations. I will be dissapointed if they are flat again, but teams do that from time, even good ones.

Two games in a row? Against a team they should
'want' to beat in Memphis with a milestone (500) so close?

They aren't the lakers, they can't take games off, they aren't just coasting to the playoffs.

I hold collins to the standard that everyone who was so happy he was hired set for him. I thought long term it was a bad hire (and still do because of his treatment of Jrue and Evan) but supposedly he's a 'super coach' who burns out fast. Super coach should have a team with 2 days off motivated for a back to back swing that could get them to 500

Rich reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 15:05

I still don't expect them to win every game though. Memphis had a day off and were ending a three game homestand. They are a good team. Yeah it was bad to watch, but the team is pretty darn competitive if you look at what they've done this season, win or lose.

It's a matter of preference. I prefer to give the players most of the blame in last night's case when they are so sloppy with the ball. Doug didn't look like he had an answer at either end though.

I didn't expect them to win last nights game either, but I expected them to not suck. I expected them to be competitive for an entire game not just a small portion of it.

Not to mention, this speights thing is beyond ludicrous right now, it's to the point where it seems like some sort of mental block for Collins to play him.

Songaila SUCKS, I don't care 'how bad' Speights is in practice, Songaila is awful

And if brackins isn't going to play - send him back to the NBDL where his numbers wow people

Yeah I basically agree. I hated the Collins hiring based on his track record of hating young players. He grew on me as the Sixers started playing harder than almost any team in the league.

But he bothers me a lot with poor in-game decisions, his unbelievable obsession with the Louis Williams isolation, and his lack of insistence that the team feed Brand like it did in his 33-point NYK game. Unless Brand starts off 1 for 6, he should be fed the ball like that NYK game every single night.

And the Speights thing, I just don't get it. He scored 23 points in 17 minutes a little ways back, and hasn't even gotten 10 minutes since, including several DNP-CDs. Songaila is not an NBA player, there is no possible rational justification for playing him over Speights.

Collins complains that the Sixers don't match up well with the big Grizzlies, well sure if you play Brand at center and keep Speights on the bench the whole game, it's a bad matchup.

johnrosz on Feb 16 at 15:01

GoSIxers is way too hard on Collins. They're one win away from matching last years win total, and the guy acts like Collins is a complete hack.

He's changed the entire culture of the locker room, rejuvenated EB, gotten Iguodala to play the level of defense we all knew he was capable of, cleaned up Thad's game, done a solid job of bringing Jrue along...

what am I missing here?

And yet, I've repeatedly said that when I compare collins, last year is irrelevant to me.

Last year gives collins a pass cause the sixers were coached by a moron.

I think everyone is too fracking easy on him because he's better than Eddie Jordan.

YOU would have been better than eddie jordan.

Until he gets this team to do something that Tony Dileo or mo cheeks couldn't do i won't be impressed.

Combine that with his poor treatment of the future and his history of burning out in 3 years or less - I'm sure he won't be here much longer.

I'm tired of collins getting credit for crap he didn't do, he didn't' rejuvenate elton brand - elton brand did that all by himself after a year of palying for an ASS HAT who HATED HIM

What your missing (per usual) is the fact that the sixers were not as bad as their record indicated last year - they were what they always were - a mediocre team that will be a few games under 500 and lose in the first round with even a half assed coach.

Eddie Jordan was the worst poossible coach for that roster and than made it worse with people skills that make Dub look like the great negotiator.

I ignore last year when evaluating collins because it gives him too much credit - and I ignore people giving collins all the creit for improving over last year because FIRING jordan guaranteed improvement as long as the higher wasnt' equally stupid.

Rich reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 15:08

Well, all that aside, Mo Cheeks and Tony DiLeo had an above average defensive center at their disposal. Collins has no such thing.

johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 15:45

took almost 20 games for them to unlearn all the awful Eddie Jordan habits. He's turned them into one of the best in the league at defending the 3, after being awful last year. They were bound to get off to a terrible start regardless of the coach. Collins deserves a ton of credit for getting them to continue battling after the 3-13 start

johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 15:52

You give Collins zero credit for when the players perform well, but you give him all the blame when they don't?

Donovan reply to johnrosz on Feb 16 at 19:06

Hey but if someone points out that Iguodala had a bad game, GoSixers flies into a tantrum about how he isn't appreciated. It's too bad that GoSixers is so hypocritical when it comes to Collins. One bad game from the Sixers and suddenly Collins is worthless and should be traded for Eddy Curry's expiring.

Gee - another member of the (mostly silent) peanut gallery.

When Iguodala ACTUALLY has a bad game (like last night) more than happy to admit it - it's when people call him out just because that I have a problem with. I understand a subtle difference is hard to grasp

Donovan reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 19:12

Please hide behind insults. It's what you do best.

Hmmm....how productive was Elton Brand for Cheeks or Dileo?

Was the point guard better (no i don't think he was, i prefer Jrue to andre miller)

They had to play willie green AND lou williams, collins is only stuck with lou.

I know they're different rosters - but BFD - coaches always have different rosters - point is - comparing his performance to jordans isn't a measuring stick I buy into since jordan was a complete jack ass in every aspect of coaching (and yet lou williams had his best season - coincidence?)

Rich reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 15:25

I get the point that people are happy that EFJ lowered people expectations. If they are competitive in the 1st Round this year, I don't think that it's black and white that we have to say that Collins did an average job because DiLeo and Cheeks got there. Winning a series is tough in this league.

Jrue better than 08-09 Andre Miller though? At some point, yes, but not yet.

ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 15:26

i understand the point about not comparing collins to jordan becuase its apples and oranges. Jordan basically took a respectable to mediocre squad and made them unbearable to watch. I would say that Collins has defintely changhed the culture of the locker room, but if they come out flat tonight then its within reason to turn the blame towards Collins. last nights game can not be blamed on collins he wasnt the one turning over the ball.

And please, can we just not mention Dalemberts name as someone who played defense. i get it he got rebounds and had maybe a few blocks. He had no understanding of defense period. So that coupled with his zero understanding of Offense made him pretty much pathetic. Although spencer hawes is as well.

Dalember was better (is better) on both ends of the floor compared to Hawes and oh yeah - one of the best defensive rebounders and shot blockers in the game - he may have been clueless but at least he worried teams a little - the sixers now have a soft underbelly of marshmallow fluff that teams will drive at willy nilly cause no one can stop them.

I read this today and wanted to share - guess who it's describing

He's a basketball moron.
But he is VERY good at yelling and goatee-trimming.

I don't have a goatee

Rich reply to ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 15:38

If they come out flat tonight, yes, Collins will be at blame. I just didn't think Cheeks and DiLeo were held to such a high standard. DiLeo had some real questionable moments, and yes, he was a scout. That's kind of the argument though (Remember how bad they were to end that season?), that Collins is doing a better job than those two coaches.

Your Dalembert analysis is flawed either. Rebounding and shot-blocking are the two biggest parts of interior defense, and he was excellent at both. He was, at the very least, an above average defensive center. Hawes is a terrible offensive player as well.

Collins and Dileo weren't held to a high standard, but they weren't universally praised as great hires as the great doug collins was after being out of coaching for a good 10 years or more? (I don't know the exact number)

Keep in mind - I tought the cheeks hire was terrible and if he had never played for the sixers I don't htink he would have gotten the job (hate nostalgia hires like that - but i lived through larry bowa running the phillies) and DiLeo was fine I guess - but it was his first job.

Collins supposedly has the 'credentials' that mo and dileo didn't - so he should do better than they did

Donovan reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 19:10

This coming from the guy who didn't want Thibodeau as coach because the fact that he wasn't already hired meant that he had too many 'red flags.' The idea that he wasn't the best interviewer in the world meant that he didn't have enough 'communication skills' to be a good coach. GoSixers has absolutely no idea what he's doing when it comes to evaluating coaches.

We would all die and go to heaven if Sammy D was the anchor of this defense. He is such an upgrade to the trash we have now. I believe libertyballers had a great post a few weeks ago about this.

Brian....you've been pretty questionable on your predictions lately....would you mind predicting a loss?

Hey - brian was almost spot on on the final score last night (assuming you ignore the teams ;)

ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 15:45

Explain to me how one of the best defensive rebounders and shot blockers int he game can also have no clue about defense? I would love to know what team was scared of Dalembert.

But I agree teams drive at spencer hawes cause he is soft as a marshmellow.

And I think Jordan was the MVP last year in goatee trimming, reigning MVP

Well I would explain it to you but I don't think you'll care to hear it - so I'll just say one word


tk76 reply to ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 15:56

Its analogous to Ryan Howard. He is a dangerous hitter who hits a lot of home runs and helps your team... but he is not a "good hitter" in that he strikes out and makes a lot of mistakes at the plate.

You can be a great rebounder, shot blocker and man defender based solely on talent and athleticism- and still be a lousy team defender because you lack court sense. So Sam can be a big asset defensively and still have major weaknesses in team defense. Just like a Andre Miller can help an offense but not shoot a lick.

ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 15:50

Ok I understand your point about not explaining to me as if I dont understand basketball... but you might be confusing Instincts with athleticism

Athleticism helps but sam always played basketball instinctual, he happened to have good defensive instincts in many arenas - and while you may say he never got better - he did improve in his goaltendings over time, and if you knew my history with Sam you'd know that me complimenting him is like Mike Misanelli saying Andre Iguodala is fairly paid.

Thad is athletic, but his instincts defensively are bad, which is why he sucks at rebounding for his position. Instincts matter just as much as athleticism and Sam for some reason has real good defensive instincts.

Try the reply function next time. It's not that hard

ED OREILLY reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 16:01

Ok i apologize, I wasnt aware about how you felt about Sammy, but the analogy you used with AI and Missanelli makes sense so again sorry. I guess I was just a hater of Dalembert because of the number of plays he did worng never counteracted for the plays that were awful. My own bias

I would def agree with that commwent about Thad, I dont get why he has such bad postioning. Isnt Rick Mahorn still in the area, couldnt he teach Thad how to box out.

Just figured out reply button

tk76 reply to ED OREILLY on Feb 16 at 16:06

Guys with lean frames like Thad are only good rebounders if they have great anticipation and aggression. You need a wide base to rebound effectively solely using boxing out and positioning. Thin, athletic guys (like Rodman) get rebounds through anticipation and quickness- not positioning. And Thad has never been much of a rebounder- going back to his year at Georgia Tech.

I'm mad at you for busting out the 'he strikes out too much' refrain.

A career OPS of .944

johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 16:10

For some reason a lot of people put more value in a pop up or a weak ground ball to first base, even though it gives you the exact same result as a K. An out is an out. All that being said, the Howard extension might look like a disaster in 2 or 3 years.

I have no idea what Thad's motivation is but I question his basketball IQ - I think it's quite low.

Thing with Sam is - I hated him for years - because of what he couldn't do - and you can't do that - Sam was great at what he could do - and with a 6'8 power forward having a guy who is great on the defensive glass is key. The sixers would be a much better team right now if Sam was still here for a couple reasons.

Sam would be here

ANd nocioni would have started zero games

So Thorpes report this week is a 'top 20' ranking the rookie soph team combined. Holiday is at 5

A case can be made that Philly is the league's most improved team and Holiday, who leads the Sixers in minutes played, just might be its most valuable player. He sets the stage for the team on offense and defense, ranking second in assists and fourth in steals among all first- and second-year players.
He has also proved to be a much better shooter from distance, coming up huge in the scoring department in multiple games this season. Most recently, he poured in 27 of his team's 77 points in an upset of the Spurs. A change in Philly's offense might signal less production from Holiday, however, which would likely move him down this list.

Griffin, Curry, Blair, Ibaka above him (in that order)

As for his turner comments this week

I doubt he'll ever live up to his billing as a No. 2 pick, but he can still be a very productive player.

I've seen quite a few Rockets games this year because I have two of their starters (Martin and Hayes) on my DF fantasy team. The Rockets have just as strong a bench (offensively) as the Sixers do, often leaving most of their bench in for the entire 2nd quarter. The Sixers bench (Lou and Thad, if that's who it is) will need to play defense and not just try to outscore their counterparts. Among the starters, Scola is a tough cover for Brand (not beyond Brand's abilities, though), while Hayes is sneaky and will get his share of garbage baskets if Hawes plays lazily. K-Mart runs hot and cold, but he draws fouls well. I wouldn't put Iguodala on him until the 4th. Lowry is a solid, physical PG, not a great passer or shooter but doesn't make too many mistakes; should be a good matchup with Jrue.

Just saw on Twitter that Courtney Lee is out w/ pneumonia.

That's a big break for the Sixers. Lee had been playing exceptionally well and is a better defender than Martin. With Lee out, look for a lot of Brooks and Lowry in the backcourt, because Adelman doesn't like to play Martin more than 32 minutes or so ...

tk76 reply to Statman on Feb 16 at 16:22

So how boes the Borrks/Lowry back-court match-up with Lou/Jrue.

advantage sixers, I guess. Brooks has been terribly inefficient this season. Lowry vs. Jrue is a pretty even matchup, statistically.

It is fair to judge a coach by how well his team responds to losses. And by that measure Collins has done well. The team has not lost more than 2 in a row since late November. Since then, they have bounced back with wins after their most painful losses. They also have won after there previous 4 losses.

So if they do disappointed tonight, it would be more the exception than the rule... not that losing 2 in a row on the road is all that terrible, regardless of the motivation.

Brian, I'd be interested in your answers for the 4 questions I posed on the previous thread.

Give me one second, I'll copy/paste/answer them.

What are the chances the Sixers:

1. Make the playoffs all 3 years?

- No significant moves made, I'd say 80%. You're basically weighing any decline in Brand's game against development by Jrue, Turner and Thad (to whatever degree he's going to further develop). I give the edge to development over decay, in this case. No one below the Sixers really scares me as currently constructed. Add in moves and you never know.

2. Make it out of the 1st round?
- 30%. Probably not this year, maybe next year. The year after, I can see them getting home court in the playoffs, with some decent playoff experience under their belts.

3. Make it to the conference Finals (3rd round)?
- 5%. Again, based on no moves, it would take a real ascension from Jrue and/or Turner. Again, this would be year three, at the earliest, I think, and that's even a 20-to-1 shot.

4. Do you believe there are moves available to Thorn that would raise their chance of getting top the conference finals at some point in that 3 year span above 20%?

- Right now? No. Will there be moves available? Yes, I think so. You've got Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Deron Williams and a couple other guys who will be free agents/trade bait between now and then, and the Sixers' negotiating strength is only going to improve between now and then. He'll have a chance to do something big.

tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 16 at 16:35

Thanks. These are questions are mostly to gauge where people are at regarding the teams short term and intermediate future. It is interesting to see what people's expectations are moving forward- now that it appears unlikely the team will make a move to "clear the deck."

I saw a game where Hayes defended Griffin very well, not sure he couldn't do the same against Brand. Though Brand, fundamentally, is way more competent.

Shutting Griffin down really isn't a measuring stick for me.

You know what's funny, I was thinking about Collins and how he's set priorities for this team. It kind of makes me wonder if there are certain types of players and certain players in particular who drive him absolutely batty.

Mainly, I'm talking about turnovers here. Brand is pretty much an ideal big guy for him. Extremely low turnover rate. Takes care of the ball, shoots a high percentage. But how would Collins deal with having a guy like Amare or Dwight? Dwight is 3rd in the league in turnovers and Amare is fifth, and we aren't exactly talking about guys who set teammates up. That's a ton of empty possessions. Howard's assist-to-turnover ratio is a bit more than 0.33. That's unbelievably bad. Amare's is like 0.75. Would it completely drive Collins nuts to coach a big that turned it over that much? Or does his "No turnovers, no matter what the cost" philosophy have more to do with the limited half court offense this team has, and how limiting turnovers as much as possible means squeezing just a little bit more out of the offense cumulatively, maybe more than would be gained if they took more risks.

I wonder if he'd have a different philosophy if he had a guy like Amare or Dwight. I'm about 99% certain Cousins would never, ever see the floor on a team coached by Doug Collins.

tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 16 at 16:25

I don't see Collins as that dogmatic. I think he looked at the Sixers and decided "If we turn over the ball we'll never win, because we lack the horses to beat you in that type of race."

Comment on HoopsHype forums

Al Iannazzone: Buying out Murphy is the last resort, but the Nets believe they will be able to trade him. Twitter

See, I think the Sixers could easily step in to get this done w/out sacrificing anything significant. Give the Nets some short-term savings plus a minor asset (either Brackins, Speights or a 2nd-round pick).

Something like this.

tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 16 at 16:44

So that is basically Willie Green + Jason Smith + Reggie Evans

for a Murphy rental when you go back a few trades.

Sounds fair enough.

But Brackin's is Thorn's guy- so he won't give him up so cheaply.

Then make it a 2nd-rounder, or Speights. I'm fairly certain Speights isn't getting a legit shot here in the Collins era, and Speights' comments on Twitter are only digging his hole deeper.

tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 16 at 16:58

I just wrote this at LB in response to "the Speights issue":

I've learned 2 things about NBA coaches

1. Coaches give guys like Willie Green lots of playing time.
2. Coaches give guys like Speights minimal playing time.

It’s not Collins or Cheeks or Dieleo or Jordan, its just how NBA coaches operate.

…Sure it makes us angry at times, but coaches would rather put their faith in a guy they believe they can rely upon than someone with talent but won’t follow direction. They will make an exception for a top 5 pick or truly singular talent. But no coach has decided Speights is worthy of that type of exemption for a guy who does not respond to coaching.

NBA coaches want role players who will follow direction and are reliable. And Mo Speights- despite his gifts- has yet to earn any coach’s faith at the college or NBA level. So Collins is not the exception but more the rule. So your criticism is more for coaches in general and what type of player they are willing to stake their career on.

I think New Jersey is holding onto murphy until the last second to try and leverage 'big man' demand - but then again I think Portland is doing the same thing with their two big men and jeff foster in indiana is supposedly floating

Well, that could work to the Sixers favor as well. I'd be comfortable putting that package out there for any of those guys, maybe the market is flooded and one of those teams bites. For Camby, I'd consider making it a lottery-protected 1st.

tk76 reply to Brian on Feb 16 at 17:01

Its amazing Camby is so productive at nearly 37. Genrally I am opposed to the Sixers giving up assets to bring in a 37 year old, but Camby is somewhat unique. Although I still don't want to sacrifice a 1st rounder for him.

Would you sacrifice the 16th pick in the 2011 draft for him? I would.

I'd give up more for camby than i would for przybilla

You weren't asking me, but yeah, I would. I'd make it lottery protected, indefinitely.

tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 17:10

I would not. There is a chance that a #16 becomes a future core player (Jrue), while Camby gets you a bit closer this year. If Camby was 33 maybe, bu he turns 37 next month.

yeah, giving up a 1st for camby who doesn't get us out of round 1 is a terrible idea. Jrue holiday was 17th pick, never know what happens.

This is considered (right now) one of the worst drafts in recent memory and that's before anyone 'backs out' for fear of a lock out.

Marcus Camby would be on the sixers for two seasons and plug a hole you will not find in this draft

how much college game have you watched personally? I am getting sick of hearing people beat this draft to death when they have done very little to 0 college basketball watching.

I'm presuming you watch 100s of 1000s of college basketball games and thus know this draft will be pluck full of talent?

I haven't read a single thing from the variety of sources out there that do scout college that are talking about how great and deep a draft this is.

is this another one of those where you wanna be contrary to be contrary or in your wide access to college and international basketball you know the sixers are going to strike gold at 16/17 cause this draft is just so deep?

"is this another one of those where you wanna be contrary to be contrary or in your wide access to college and international basketball you know the sixers are going to strike gold at 16/17 cause this draft is just so deep?"

Nope, i personally dislike college basketball, but i'm not going to quote the same analysts that get ripped on here routinely that this is a weak draft. There is going to be talent to be had and there's a chance the sixers could end up with a future starter at the 16/17th spot. There is no chance that Camby makes this team a contender, and there is a guarantee that Camby won't be here in 3 years. Basically what we are doing is wasting Jrue/ET's youth by not bringin in more talent.

I quote a variety of sources - espn is at the bottom of my list of people to talk to.

ESPN does have some more knowledgable college minds than CHad Ford working for them - Fran Fraschilla is slightly more reliable than ESPN - but there are tons of available (free) resources out there that people can check into.

The presumption that I was quoting someone who I routinely say bad things about (I'm assuming ford) is on you - there are numerous sources that say it's a weak draft and could be weaker if people stay away due to a lock out - just takes 5 minutes to find some of em.

Or you know - you could just be contrary to be contrary as it does seem you were being presuming I was giving credibility to someone I don't usually do to make my point - it's not my nature

Shouldn't have said 'talk to' in reference to espn - meant go to

No chance? Do you know how good Camby is? He is easily one of the top centers in the league, just look at the production. And he happens to be exactly what the team needs in terms of defensive rebounding and protecting the basket. The Sixers would actually have a MUCH better chance of winning in the playoffs with Camby.

No one person has enough time to watch enough college basketball (unless it's their job) to adequately evaluate the draft - that's why I use reliable sources

like this one


Derek seems gone though

You know better than to compare across drafts like that.

Have you seen a draft that supposedly is so bereft of talent


tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 17:48

It does not have to be a starter. Any quality role player getting a #16 pick salary for 4 years is a real boon. While 37 year old centers have limited shelf lives.

I don't think Camby gets the Sixers out of the first round. So its not even debatable in my mind. But I would deal for Camby in exchange for players who have no future here (Speights.)

Have we really come this far to accept a first round defeat lying down? And by lying down I mean relying on Spencer Hawes. Man we might have to live off whatever this run turns out to be for the next 2 years. C'Mon lets get the best guy out there and go to war!

Tray reply to tk76 on Feb 16 at 18:17

I think that virtually any draft has value in the middle of the first round, even late in the first round, if you draft the right player. But if this draft is so weak that there are only a couple guys left at 15 who can help you, odds are good you mess up and don't pick that guy. So in the infamously weak 2000 draft, there were only 5-6 good players selected in the lottery (I'm counting Keyon Dooling - if you like you can count Etan Thomas, that makes 6), and only 7-9 good players selected thereafter - Turkoglu (16), Desmond Mason (17), Quentin Richardson (18), Magloire (19), Mo Pete (21), Eddie House (37), Redd (43). Najera and Brian Cardinal make 9. Now, as it turned out, teams selecting in the mid first round did well because the lottery teams screwed up so thoroughly. But, had lottery teams done a better job, good value in that draft at the 15th pick would have been Brian Cardinal, or, at least, good value would have depended on whether you were smart enough to draft one of the four good players left on the board. Which is a very risky game.

Any chance the Blazers would be interested in Lou? I would put him in a package for Camby in a second, in an absolute second.

Well - who wouldn't?

maybe Collins :(

Rudy Gay out the next 4 weeks - minimum

tk76 reply to GoSixers on Feb 16 at 18:26

IMO he might need surgery. Any hint of shoulder socket instability at his age and they will jump to surgery- unlike in an older player like Brand who they try and treat conservatively without surgery (which failed in his case.) Its just a lousy injury to have.

Yep. I had one and basketball was by far the hardest sport on the injury. Antawn Jamison is the only guy I can remember who dislocated a shoulder, didn't get the surgery, and came back w/out a ton of issues.

2011 will likely be a diluted draft. But the very nature picks outside the top 10 is that it is hit or miss. You can have a "bad draft" where there are lots of solid players that were picked later.

Look at 2001 as an example. It was a great draft, but there were 5 busts in the top 10 (#1 Kwame Brown, #2Tyson Chandler(OK) #4Eddie Curry,#7Eddie griffin, #8Diop, #9White

Yet there was a star at #10 (JJ) and good players at 14(Troy Murphy), 19(Z-Bo), 20(Haywood), 25(Gerald Wallace), 26(Sam), 28(Parker), 31(Arenas), 38(Okur)

I don't remember how that draft graded out going in (maybe very strongly?) My point is that drafts are often graded by the headliners. And you can have a year with weak headliners and lots of surprise good players who graded out poorly.

But it is a bit harder to get a diamond in the rough when the overall pool is shallower.

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