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Jodie Is Making A Difference

Damn, i was pretty optimistic about Meeks (thanks for the reminder with the post:)) but even I couldn't predict how good he has played this season. The numbers are impressive yes, but what's even more impressive to me is that he behaves himself like a true professional on the court with, which is very rare for a player with his age and (in)experience.

One thing i like to use when predicting his future ability (in this case shooting) is a guys FT% early in his career. Players with good FT% tend to become good shooters later on in their careers. Meeks is currently 7th in the league in FT% and he has been improving every single month since the beginning of the year. He is shooting 94.4% since the allstar break. That's an insane number and hopefully he can continue to knock down FTs with the same (or better) regularity.

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deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 7:15
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A shooter that doesn't hurt you at the other end of the floor is hard to find and a plus for any team. What will he get this summer, starters money ? He seems an afterthought to us with Thad and Hawes"s situations.Kudos to our front office for seeing something during his draft workouts that Milwaukee, a team lacking shooters, wasn't patient enough to wait for.

might be wrong, but i think sixers hold a team option on him for next year.

Yep, team option. He'll probably be your starting two guard for $884,293 next season. So extending him will be an issue after next season.

With the extensions they give Hawes and Young where will they find the money for Jodie?

Heh. Please don't use the words extension and Hawes in the same sentence.

I'm not kidding.

The sixers have a hole at big man. They aren't an attractive free agent destination, they don't really have the assets to upgrade the position by trade without creating a major hole somewhere else (and the whole 'big for small' thing means it'd be harder to do with the assets they do have)

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hawes starting next year, only better option right now is Speights and that requires some sort of step forward in his effort and development to convince Collins of the obvious.

Three out of 10 "experts" have us as a team that could possibly upset a top team in the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-110318/daily-dime

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mopey reply to Ryan F on Mar 18 at 11:59
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Wow, that's pretty cool. Although Chris Sherridan should get his eyes checked - he said the sixers have size off the bench.

Does anyone think it makes sense to run more plays for Jodie that result in him getting open looks from inside the three point line? Sometimes when our offense hits a cold stretch in a game, I think it would make sense to run Jodie of a couple screens to get him open for a jumper closer to Elton Brand range than behind the 3-pt line. I'm thinking of plays that were always run for better shooting guards like Reggie Miller and Rip Hamilton. And I'm thinking of this as more of a last resort when our offense is struggling.

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tk76 reply to Scott on Mar 18 at 9:28
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Meeks only hits 33% of his shots from 16-23 fet. That compared to a eFG% of 61% from 3pts.

So by the numbers he does not look like a huy you want running off curls. Although I'm guessing if they actually worked to generate those midrange looks then Jodie's percentage would go up into the 45% range.

I generally depise long 2's- but if you want a guy running people off of screen to get those looks- then Lou is your man. Of course he only hits 37% of those shots :)

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=PHI&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2011&gp=0&mins=0

Yeah, I'm never in favor of running plays to get long twos. His shot distribution is probably the thing I like best about Jodie.

One thing Meeks can't do is switch onto SF's. He has good strength, but is too small.

On the flip side, he can cover PG's- which is good since he can be used to "hide" Jrue wen he gets in foul trouble.

I guess its rare to have a SG who can guard all 3 positions (PG/SG/SF) so you end up with one who does better either with SF's or PG's.

So do you think Thorn/Collins will feel comfortable enough with a back-court rotation of Jrue/Meeks/Iguodala/Turner to where they trade away Lou this summer?

While i would love for that to happen i wouldn't bet on it. My best guess is one of Iguodala/Turner/Jrue gets traded in the offseason for a legit starting C (with Jrue a long shot). Lou doesn't have the same value as those three, unfortunately. And honestly as much as we hate to admit it, that might actually be the right way to go.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 10:10
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I'm not sure Turner has a ton of value right now. His #2 overall status actually hurts his value- since it means you are committing to a big contract if you trade for him. He would actually have more value right now if he was a #6 or #7 pick. Aminu (#7) makes only 2.5M next year, while Turner will make 5M.

Apparently, the market price for #2 picks in their second season is an expiring contract. Plus, you have to throw in a #1 pick to get the other team to make the deal. The #2 pick from the previous season was also traded this year, for a second-round pick, I believe. (Beasley to Minn and Thabeet to HOU).

I'm still not sure there's enough evidence to warrant trading any of the 'big 3'.

Contrary to the opinion of some, Evan Turner seems to have an 'adjustment' year at every level he plays and in his second year takes a step forward and continues to improve from there. It would be foolhardy to give up on him after one season.

Neither Beasley NOR Thabeet were written off by their teams after their rookie years alone. There was more than one season involved and it would be silly to give up on Turner without giving him a chance to see if he can follow his pattern and what sort of work he can do in the off season.

I like Meeks, he's a nice piece, but he's not a starter. Those jump shot numbers tk posted just strengthen the cause. He's a sniper from 3 (as long as no one is in his face or he doesn't have to dribble) and at best an average defender.

Meeks is not a 'solution' on a team that wins a title, he's a solution on a team that's got roster holes like the sixers.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 11:37
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I think it's fair to say that his not having a jump shot isn't a function of his going through an "adjustment year." In college he didn't have great range either. Now, maybe it's fixable, but if not, you're starting three perimeter players, two of whom are bad shooters, one of whom is average. And the average one is your point guard.

"Meeks is not a 'solution' on a team that wins a title, he's a solution on a team that's got roster holes like the sixers."

See, I think this is the wrong way to look at it. I think he's a solution on a team that's got roster strengths like the Sixers. He doesn't create for himself or others and he doesn't rebound that well. Those things aren't needed from the two when you've got Jrue, Iguodala and Turner surrounding him.

So he's Kyle Korver, just a bit shorter?

A bit shorter and not a total liability on the defensive end. Korver was, and still is, attacked mercilessly on the defensive end. I'm not sure if Meeks is average, above average or slightly below, but you don't see other teams go after him with any kind of regularity. W/ Korver, it's always a tradeoff, you know teams are going to isolate him on the defensive end and you just hope he's doing enough on the offensive end to make up for it. You don't have that situation w/ Meeks. Meeks is also a pretty big part of their running game, both in getting steals and getting out in the open court to create a numbers advantage. Korver was a trailer, at best, something Meeks also does.

I don't really think Korver is comparable to Meeks. He's much more one-dimensional, though probably better at that one dimension than Jodie is.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:04
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Meeks can chase opposing SG's. Korver could not. Meeks can also cover PG's for stretches.

In Korver's favor, he was a "post threat." He also had a better release than Meeks.

Meeks puts a lot of leg into his jumper- so it makes it harder for him to hit 3's when he is not set and open. KK (and Lou) use more wrist action, so do not need to be jumping forward to hit the shot.

I actually wonder if Meeks can refine his shot to where he is less reliant on jumping into the shot?

Yes, I can see how after two years Meeks is totally different than Kyle Korver was after two years

http://bkref.com/tiny/JPJsY

I didn't realize we were comparing him to Kyle Korver from 6 years ago, thought you were talking about Korver today. If you've got a way-back machine, then yeah, Korver might fit just as well between Jrue and Iguodala.

Jodie's actually shooting it better than Korver did in his second season.

I have been comparing him to korver at same time in his career for a while now. Same great shooter from 3 as long as he doesn't have to dribble. Best free throw shooter on the team. Defensively liability. Meeks however, so far, less of a passer, and less of a defender, than Korver was after 2 seasons.

You're judging the less of a defender thing on the team's DFR when they're on the floor?

And the defensive rebounding thing and the steal thing and the effort I see from Meeks on defense compared to the effort I still see from Korver.

Effort is a big part of defense especially when you're not very good at it.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 12:31
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The opponent PER for Meeks at SG is 10.4. I don't see the bad defender part.

He is not giving up wide open 3's like many teammates. I don't see him getting abused on the P&R like Jrue. He does not get beaten easily in isolation.

He is vulnerable when he switches onto SF in the post. But on the flip side a lot of SG's are a lot more vulnerable to penetration when they switch onto PG's.

When you are talking your 4th best starter you have to pick your poison. If you want a SG who can cover PG/SG/SF equally well, and be a good 3pt weapon then you are not talking a 4th best starter.

BTW KK's opponent PER his 2nd season was 15.4. Now it is a tremendous 10.2.

Where are you getting those numbers? I'm seeing 14.1 PER against for Korver and 11.4 PER against for Meeks this season.

Ah, you're going to the player page at 82games.com. A while back I asked about methodology, and I think the number on the team page is a more accurate look at who they're covering. The player page is just who was playing opposite them, I think.

Wish that site would be more transparent in how they come up w/ their numbers.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:39
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Yeah, its a cloudy stat. Sort of like gauging a fever by touching your forehead.

But even though the stat lacks precision, it seems to be generally accurate in gauging who is a good or bad defender. And PER differential also seems to arrive at who is a good or bad player- even if the methodology is flawed and opaque.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:42
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And Jrue's opp PER is 19.4.

i used to think that was unfair- but in reality he is a below average defender right now.

That's great, but is that the guy Meeks is defending or the guy who is playing shooting guard. Sometimes that shooting guard is defended by the best defender in the league and he'll get credit for Iguodala's work

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 12:44
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I don't know if that is the case of not. If it is, then the Sixers effectively lock down both SG and SF every night. Since both Meeks and Iguodala have good numbers- and Jrue is statistically the weak link on defense.

So I'm still not seeing Meek's bad defense or lack of effort.

I'm not sure how you're gauging effort, but I'd question your methodology if you're questioning Jodie's effort. I'm also not sure why we're even off on this tangent with Korver. What does he have to do with whether Meeks is a legit starter on the Sixers or not?

Maybe I should've responded to your question a little differently: "So he's Kyle Korver, just a bit shorter?"

He's Kyle Korver, only a little shorter, not slow as shit, and not consistently picked on defensively.

And if Korver was on the Sixers instead of Meeks, they'd probably be wise to start him between Jrue and Iguodala, and the team would probably be worse for it because they'd have to cover for Korver on the defensive end. They don't cover for Meeks right now.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:36
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It's better with Meeks, since he can chase shooters around screens. If they had KK at SF and Iguodala at SG then Iggy would always be chasing guys, instead of covering the iso scorers where he excels.

Its an issue of team fit. And looking at the roster with lots of replaceable parts- Meeks skill is the leat replacable on this roster.

Sure, you could trade one of J/T/I for a better shooter that would Make Meeks fungible. But I'm not so sure they will do that. And Meeks stepping up as a solid player makes it all the less likely- and more likely they trade away Lou.

What does he have to do with whether Meeks is a legit starter on the Sixers or not?

Because it's the same damn debate (different players) as when Korver was here...history repeating itself, that's how I see it, which is why I bring up Korver.

It sounds like you were on the other side of the debate back then. Why switch now?

I'm not sure how it seems I was on the side of 'Korver is a starter' back then. He wasn't. Neither is meeks. Not on a team that contends for a title.

Do other teams have flaws? Sure they do, they also have some astounding above league average players at multiple positions if people consider them contenders.

Do people consider the Magic contenders? Nope - not really - one astounding player (Howard) and a bunch of guys not so good or barely league average.

Sixers have one astounding player - and some other guys who (right now) are at best league average.

One astounding player and league average doesn't contend for a title unless you go on a great run, and the magic have shown you can't really sustain that for multiple seasons.

Meeks is a great bench weapon on a contending team, but he shouldn't be starting unless you got above average players at at least 3 of the other starting positions and the sixers currently have one.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 13:03
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Arguably Jrue should be #2 in a year or two. And they need to make a trade to get a third.

But I'm always about "you need stars" so the Meeks situation is almost moot when you are talking contending. But I do think he can start on a contender. But a lot has to do with how you measure him defensively. And time will tell how he measures up in that area. If he is really weak then teams will eventually start picking on him.

Actually, they currently have 2. Brand is above average by a pretty large margin imo.

I wasn't sure Brand would be considered above average cause he's lost lift so his rebounding seems to have lost some (and his socring is down) when you look at the power forwards on the contending teams, but even if you get Brand you're still only with two.

Tray as usual completely missed the point and provided useless responses.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 14:18
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Actually, Chicago is a title contender, and they start Bogans. Boston still is one, in my view, and they start Krstic. The Lakers are, and they start Artest, a total offensive zero whose defense has declined dramatically. The Heat are a title contender and start Chalmers. The Spurs won a Finals starting an old Bruce Bowen, an old Finley, and Fabricio Oberto. To be sure, they had a star in Manu coming off the bench, but still, that's three average or below-average starters. Then there was the Wade-Shaq Heat, who started Antoine Walker and Jason Williams. Big names, but old, highly inefficient big names. In 04-05, the Spurs won a Finals starting Nazr Mohammed.

The Lakers start both Fisher and Artest, both of whom are worse than Meeks right now.

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Tray reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 14:27
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Right. And of course, GoSixers will say, "oh, but they have three great players. So they can afford to start players like that." True. But then what are we even debating, whether Meeks is good enough to start on a team that doesn't have several really good players? Basically, if Jrue matures into a star, if Turner does, if we draft/sign/trade for another great player or two, then the whole discussion becomes moot and it's okay to start Meeks. If none of those things happen, then it really doesn't even matter, because our lacking more than one really good player will be the reason we don't contend, not Meeks getting 30 mpg instead of 20.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:23
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Yeah, was going to post the same thing. You can throw out the rookie year. Its the second year that is comparable.

An Meeks has Ortg, Drtg and better WS/48.

But I still don't understand the fixation. I get that they are both role players- but that does not preclude someone from being a startKorver hurt you on the floor with his defense. Meeks does not hurt them- partly because J/T/I mask his weaknesses.

Korver is a better shooter. They are both one dimensional. So are a lot of starters on good teams.

Some are even zero dimensional. Each of the top five teams in the East have at least one starter at or below Meeks' level. I think SAS and DAL are the only teams out West.

Starting Meeks wouldn't keep them from being a legit team, the problem is the starting C, imo.

Rajon Rondo
Paul Pierce
Ray Allen
Kevin Garnett
Nenad Krstic

I'm curios - who is at (or below) Meeks level on this roster?

Assuming your premise is correct (and I don't think it is)

Four of the top 5 teams in the east have one super star

Most of them aren't starting TWO bench players either.


Sorry - meant of the celtics starting five - who is at or below Meeks?

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 12:47
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Kristic is equivalent to Meeks. He has glaring holes in his game that can be masked by his teammates.

Nenad. And my point was that you can get away with one guy who's more of a fit for your team as a starter. Meeks isn't the issue. The issue is the center position.

Meeks is easier to upgrade than the center position

Irrational optimism regarding free agency aside, or the trade value of non important sixer pieces, the best big man hope for the future the sixers have is Speights

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 13:00
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No, Thorn will have to make a major move to get a center in the next 12 months. It does not matter how stuck they are- he will have to make a move.

We'll see. I think Thorn will be hamstrung by a new CBA and a cheap ownership and do the best he can but Hawes might be the best option.

(Though from your per differential it seems he might not be the best option on the roster, doug just hates Speights)

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 13:12
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By those numbers Hawes and Speights are equally weak defenders. Speights is a better individual offensive player.

But you can argue Hawes makes up part of that gap by being Peyton Manning.

I wouldn't be in a rush to trade any of JTI either, but I'd certainly consider it for a long term big. And really, I'm talking about I or T, unless it's like Dwight Howard.

Quality post Brian...and wasn't getting a better handle on Meek's talent and how he fits into the team long term one of the goals coming into the season?

Yep. One of the lesser goals.

Kate Fagan certainly has her strengths and weaknesses as a beat writer- but I want to give her credit for making a good call on the Meeks situation.

Early on she predicted Meeks would probably have one serious up, one serious down and then finally arrive at consistency once he got his feet under him with consistent minutes. That is basically exactly what has happened- and it is probably pretty typically when a young player gets their first chance as a starter.

Also credit to Collins for sticking with Meeks when he had his down-swing. And Collins has carved out the right role.

Also credit to Collins for sticking with Meeks when he had his down-swing. And Collins has carved out the right role.

And yet with other players, when they're in a down swing, they just sit down.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 12:07
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Collins has other options at most position. But his shooter alternatives are abysmal.

You're right. His options at back up big man are numerous

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 12:10
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Numerous in that the options are all about equally bad. There is not a big step down going form Hawes-Speights-Battie.

There is a huge difference between Meeks and Kapono. And a huge difference in shooting between Meeks and Turner.

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Tom Moore on Mar 18 at 10:43
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Sixers aiming to crown Kings:

http://ow.ly/4hg3l

I've brought this up before... PER differential seems to arrive at who is a good or bad player- even if the methodology is flawed and opaque.

Lets use the Sixers as an example. It does not work perfectly, but here are the results:

Iguodala +9.9
Williams +6.4
Brand +3.9
Young +2.1
Meeks +1.7
Speights -3.8
Holiday -3.3
Battie -2.8
Turner -2.5
Hawes -7.0
Nocioni -7.9
Kapono -10.2
Songaila -16.1

Brackins removed for lack of PT

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 18 at 12:59
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So it seems to miss with Jrue and Lou. But to be fair, Jrue has lost a ton of match-up this year, so his negative rating may be warranted. While Lou for some reason gets a very strong rating here. His opposing PG just does not seem to take advantage of him... but Lou hurts his team in other ways (likely by suppressing teammates production- which is terrible for a PG.)

So - from this - Lou is the send best defensive player on the sixers and Hawes really sucks crap?

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 13:07
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No, this is PER differential. The raw numbers are here: http://www.82games.com/1011/1011PHI.HTM

So their best defender are:

Iguodala
Meeks
Kapono
Lou


So yea, opponent PER can be a flawed measure at times :)

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 18 at 13:08
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But to be fair, other than Lou, the other outliers played less than 3% of the teams total minutes.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 18 at 13:10
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And the players with the worst opponent PER:

19-20.5
Hawes
Speights
Jrue
Nocioni

17-18
Thad
Songalia

An interesting comparison of Meeks with 5 similar players in their respective second seasons.


http://tinyurl.com/6yfpdyf

They were all 23 or 24 at the time. Where would you rank Meeks among these guys? How many of them would you consider starters on a contender?

According to the numbers and what i can remember from the second seasons of those guys Meeks is basically the best player of them all. Reddick and Aflalo have improved quite a bit though and are better than him now. Can Meeks improve even further?

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 13:35
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At least by WS/48:

Meeks: 0.128
Korver: 0.119
Reddick: 0.091
Morrow: 0.084
Afflalo: 0.069
Lee: 0.061

So other than Korver, none are really close overall.

And not just by WS/48. He is the second best shooter (behind Morrow), the second best defender (behind Lee, although you can make the case for Afflalo as well), he is taking care of the ball very well...

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mopey reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 13:57
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Wow, best Ortg and 2nd best Drtg for Meeks

So what will Meeks be 2-3 years?

Obviously not a star, but:

1. Will his 3pt% stay above 40% on 4+ attempts/game?
-I don't see why not.

2. Will he add a midrange jumper to his game?
-To some degree. I still don't think he is a great shooter on the move, so it will limit how much he can add to his game.

3. Will he be able to shoot better without being wide open?
-He will need to tweek his jumper to where he no longer has to jump forward. How possible is that?

4. Will he become a legit threat to dive when defenses close out hard on his jumper?
-Maybe. he was more of a scorer as opposed to shooter back at Kentucky. So the skill set is there- it just whether he can transfer it to an NBA level.

4. Will he become a more well rounded player who can set up other players?
-Yes and no. I don't see him ever giving them minutes at PG. He never got assists at UK (1.8 asst and 2.8 TO in 34 min/g his last year at UK.) But on the flip side he does not force things... and that was even the case when he was "the man" at UK. Read his eval before the draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jodie-Meeks-5529/playerblog/

"Jodie Meeks’ situational statistics are pretty impressive to say the least, as he not only was a very high usage player at Kentucky, but also was extremely efficient at that."

5. Will his overall FG% improve:
-probably not much. He'll always primarily take 3's. In his last year at UK 1/2 of his shots were 3pts (8 3PA/g) but he at least did shoot 52% on his 2pt shots. But how many were layups? Overall he hot 46% a game- which would be tremendous if he could match this as a pro given his eFG% will be much higher.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 18 at 14:55
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Sorry to contradict myself in that post :)

great post


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