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Story: Collins, Sixers eye strong finish:

http://ow.ly/4jtma

With Baseball, there's WAR, that helps enable people to compare all hitters, regardless of position. It's an imperfect stat, but definitely helps point out some glaring differences in value between players in the same tier.

How, in basketball, can I go about proving Deron Williams is waaaaaaaay more valuable as a player than adding Melo? What's a good framework for that, aside from just using PER or eFG.

WS/48 is the only real way to do it in basketball right now

Career Comparisons

Interesting to see how Carmelo has 'shrunk' come playoff time.

Yeah, I'd go with WS48, and WP48 if that's what you need a number. Common sense would probably work too.

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tk76 reply to Shawn on Mar 22 at 11:30
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Looking at their stats its not that hard to tell. But mayby there should be some sort of WS/48 per usage stat.

WS/48 / usage X 1000:

Carmelo: 3.97
Deon: 6.05

http://bkref.com/tiny/eAysJ

Jrue: 4.51 (this season)
Iggy: 6.31 (career, 7.53 this season.)

Lebron: 7.09
Dwight: 8.06 (8.74 this year)
Rose: 4.46 (6.03 this year)

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 11:32
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BTW, Ty Lawson is a sweet 7.48 this year...

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Tray reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 11:43
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Just you wait, he'll be exposed soon.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Mar 22 at 11:50
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Eh, I'm the rare pro-Lawson and Pro-Jrue fan. I don't see why one has to be torn down for the other to be a good pick. They both were good picks.

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Tray reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 11:56
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I too am a pro-Lawson, pro-Jrue fan, actually.

I think most people are pro-Lawson and pro-Jrue fans actually.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 12:39
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Or are at this point. Early in there rookie years oits seemed like a lot of people were strongly in one camp or the other. Jrue won over most of the skeptics, and Lawson never really had a reason for any hate.

I like both of them, just Jrue better :). Lawson can be a top 10 PG. Jrue can be top 5.

Not me. Lawson can suck it.

how are you representing usage, 25% usage = .25 in your calculations, or 25.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 22 at 11:35
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As an integer.

So for Lawson it is:

0.146 / 19.5 X 1000

I would think the inherent calculation of Win Shares takes into account usage rate itself, using the same numbers in a slightly different way?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 12:13
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It takes into account possessions. But it does not penalize a player for having a usage rate that dominates the ball.

I don't think having a higher usage rate warrants any kind of penalty. Higher usage rate always scales down the numbers statistically anyway.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 13:27
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Usage is important. Because if you are using a disproportionate amount of your teams possessions with shots then you better have a commensurate bump in production to account for it.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 11:33
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You can call it Win Share Efficiency or WCE.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 11:33
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Or without the typo: WSE

WS/48 is not better than PER or any other stat. It's just different. There is no way to fully evaluate just how good players are statistically in the NBA. At least not right now.

The best way to get a better grasp at the performance of a player is by gathering a variety of different stats IMO. I'd say WS/48, PER, Opponent PER, TS%, RBD%, TO%, AST%, points per possesion (play), opponents points per possesion (play) are among the most important.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 12:41
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Or you can just use TSM-SCCPW.

True Star Measure- SportsCenter clips per week.

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Shawn reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 13:11
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How would you account for different roles for each player. Williams = PG / Melo = SF

distributor vs scorer. how do you benchmark those positions? Would you rank stats per their position / role?

That's a fair question too. Different positions warrant different styles of play that are represented strongly in some stats and not that strongly in others. And not just positions but roles and team play as well factor heavily in some of the stats.


WS/48 for examples favors players on winning teams too much even when they are not the reason why the team is winning, PER is in general higher for big man and high usage rate players etc etc.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 13:48
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Why would WS/48 favor players on winning teams? Because they have better teammates and don't have to take as many forced shots? Actual team wins is not part of the equation.

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Tray reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 13:51
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Then why are Gasol's win shares so high? Because his ordinary stats don't look that remarkable.

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tk76 reply to Tray on Mar 22 at 14:04
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

Its a little unclear. So maybe I'm wrong and players get more WS if their teams win. Maybe someone can clarify?

It favors players on good defensive teams, or at least it takes DFR into account. So a guy like Fisher, who really doesn't contribute much on the defensive end, gets a boost from playing w/ great defenders.

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Tray reply to Brian on Mar 22 at 16:26
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Well, if it favors players on good defensive/offensive teams, that's basically the same thing as saying it favors players on teams that win. It favors, at any rate, players on teams with good Pythagorean records. I mean, Pau's a great player but I don't get how he can be fourth in win shares, unless the stat is really fueled by winning.

Win Shares IS really fueled by winning. Gasol is a top 10 player though anyway.

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Tray reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 17:11
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But you wouldn't really know it from stats - an efficient 19 and 10, that's not obviously top ten.

Look at the top 13 usage players in the NBA (usage over 28%):


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011_advanced_stats.html

In terms of WS/48 Melo is the worst of the top 9. He does beat out #10,11 and 12- which is small consolation when you learn those players are:

Monte Ellis
Andrea Bargnani
Michael Beasley

He also beats out #14 and 15 (Maggette ad Cousins) but loses out to Lou at #16

Here is guys with a usage rate over 27%:
http://bkref.com/tiny/eQVFS

Of the 28 players, Melo ranks:
17th in WS/48
14th in TS%
21st in eFG%
18th FG%

Good:
10th in TOV%
5th pts
5th FTM

Melo is having a pretty bad season by his standards. His behavior has been extremely questionable at best, but he is a pretty good player still and definitely a top 5 offensive player in the league. Defensively he can turn it on when he is motivated, the problem is he is rarely motivated...


As for win shares, a lot of bad defenders such as Anthony, Rose, Lou, Ellis, Bargnagni... have positive defensive win shares. Same for offensive win shares for bad offensive players (Amir Johnson lol). The statistic is clearly flawed. But other statistics are equally flawed (if not more), so i don't think that's too big of a deal. You take what you can get unfortunately.

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tk76 reply to Xsago on Mar 22 at 14:05
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I like PER differential as yet another flawed measure...

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 14:09
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Notable PER differntials (from 82games.com):

Lebron: 18.3
DWade: 14.3
Bosh: 5.4

Howard: 18.6

Rose: 9.4

Durant: 12.5
Westbrook: 8.2

Kobe: 11.7
Gasol: 11.0
Odom: 7.7

Iguodala: 9.9
Jrue: -3.3

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 14:12
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Carmelo: 10.2(Nug), 1.8(NYK)

Melo is having a pretty bad season by his standards.

You mean the "I'm worth 25 million but I'm really not better than Andre Iguodala" standards?

I suppose having a bad season is one thing - but in 45 playoff games his numbers decrease per 48 substantially (close to 30%)

This NY thing couldn't be playing out better. Of course the excuses of 'training camp' will be used to indicate why the Knicks were worse once carmelo showed up.

I'm not even sure they're worse. They played a bit over their heads and D'Antoni was squeezing artificial performance out of them that clearly wasn't sustainable. Look at the minutes their key rotational guys were playing. I think you can easily make the case they would've gone 7-9 over the past 16 w/ or w/out the trade. Man, I'd love it if they finish below .500 and DEN wins a round in the playoffs, though.

Actually i think they are better now. They would've been even worse had they not made the trade IMO. They were playing much better than they were supposed to and their key players played a ton of minutes.

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 14:27
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Video: Meeks on becoming the Sixers' top 3-point threat and somebody other teams are game-planning for:

http://ow.ly/4jNlz

So while triple doubles don't always warrant ESPN attention it seems that Iguodala playing tomorrow is worth a text update.

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 14:42
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It is if he is on your fantasy roster.

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 14:39
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Video: Collins gives update on Iguodala and talks about Hawks having to play Bulls while Sixers are off Tuesday:

http://ow.ly/4jNIJ

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 14:43
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Video: Nocioni on possibly getting back into Collins' rotation after sitting out most of last two months:

http://ow.ly/4jO6t

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 14:54
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Video: Battie on returning to his role as first big man off the bench and looking forward to stretch run:

http://ow.ly/4jOz3

So Evan Turner gets my twitter of the year award

"Whoever made the "teach me how to jimmer" song needs to get slapped with baby powder. And CBS needs to get slapped for playing it"

Jimmer Fever - making white folk feel better nationwide

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 15:55
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ET better learn to Jimmer at least a little, or else he could end up being a worse pro than him.

Evan Turner- disproving racial myths about athleticism every day :)

I'll lay even money that Evan Turner is a better pro than Jimmer and that Jimmer will be lucky to be as accomplished as JJ Redick in the NBA

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 18:23
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I agree.

But is Turner a better pro than Reddick right now?

Is Turner a better pro than Redick was at this point in his first season is the legitimate question in my opinion.

Answer is yes (in my opinion)

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tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 19:34
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Probably. But it should not even be close. It's not like ET is a raw 19 year old project. He should be about where Brandon Roy was his rookie year.

Yes he has not gotten the opportunity- but we've seen enough to say rookie Turner is not the player that rookie Roy was (closer to knee-less Roy.) Sure he can improve- and will to some degree. But as a rookie he's not where he should be based on pre-draft projections.

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Tray reply to tk76 on Mar 22 at 19:37
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Knee-less Roy is actually a good comparison to where Turner is right now. If you look at Roy's numbers this year, and especially his numbers since he's "come back," they're very close to Turner's, albeit with more usage and three-point range and less rebounding.

How many years did JJ Redick go to college?

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Mar 22 at 19:52
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Where did Redick go in the draft (not that high), and where did people think he should have gone (even lower)?

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 17:42
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Nocioni is ready to help Sixers in final 12 games:

http://ow.ly/4k4oh

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Tom Moore on Mar 22 at 19:24
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Sixers short on playoff experience:

http://ow.ly/4ke5X

I hope the Hawks lose in triple overtime tonight

I don't get how "D-E-N-G" becomes "DANG."

Well, it's Sudanese, so who knows.

Well, if you were rooting for heavy minutes for the Hawks regulars, it looks like they're going to be able to get plenty of rest. This looks like a complete blowout.

Boy, I know Chicago is really freaking good right now, but the Hawks look just dreadful. It isn't really looking like they'll come back focused tomorrow, hopefully things will just keep snowballing.

I would honestly rather play Boston in the playoffs then Miami. I think the Sixers have a chance against Boston., Which is the order of teams in the EFC you wouldn't want to face in the 1st round? Mine would be:

Chi
Orlando
Miami
Boston

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Rich reply to Steve on Mar 22 at 23:42
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In terms of, which teams do the Sixers have the best chance of beating. I'd say:

Orlando, Boston, Miami, then Chicago.

Honestly, they probably don't beat any of them, but they could take the 1st three teams six games.

Chicago is the clear team you don't want. It's really a matter of preference after that, and I still believe Miami would be a worse matchup than the other two. I just feel that they rely so much on individual talent of their best three guys, that Collins' coaching advantage would be negated.

Right now, I wouldn't mind getting Boston. They have some flaws.

Honestly, I think if ownership could have their choice, they'd want anyone but Orlando. Vs Miami, Chicago or Boston, you're probably talking about sell outs for all the home games (so at least two). Probably wouldn't sell out vs. Orlando, or at least they didn't the last time they played Orlando.

I don't know why but i actually think the Heat are the perfect matchup for the Sixers. I don't want why part of Chicago because they are a bad matchup and i don't like Boston either. The Heat on the other hand are a team that will go small against the Sixers and the Sixers like teams that go small against them. Both games these teams played were part of the 3-13 so we don't exactly know how well they matchup with them. If those games are any indication, the Sixers hung in there despite playing pretty bad basketball from what i can remember. I'm really looking forward to the Heat game on Friday honestly.

*any (not why)

At best, I think Collins can devise a plan that makes Miami lean on Bosh. The question then becomes, will Bosh be good enough to kill the Sixers. Brand is going to be drawn away from the hoop to cover Bosh in space, which isn't a great matchup, but I also think Brand should be able to work against Bosh on the offensive end. It would be an interesting matchup, but I just have nightmares thinking about the whistles LeBron and Wade are going to get in the playoffs. Plus, if you're a conspiracy theorist, do you really think there's any way the league would allow the Heat to get knocked out in the first round? I mean, national ratings for Heat games will be through the roof in the playoffs.


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