DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan

All  

Sixers

, all the time

The Perimeter Rotation

The issue is not just the rotation but the players 'roles' in the rotation.

Lou Williams should just NOT BE an initiator in the offense. Ever. I do realize he is better than Jrue Holiday cause, well, he has a higher FT% and PPG number, but he's not an initiator.

So I disagree with one of your sets, unless it's out of necessity. I don't wnat Lou Williams on the floor WITHOUT at least one of Iguodala and Holiday, AND one of them should be initiating the offense (which requires Collins to remove his head from his rectum regarding Louis Williams Point Guard, I know)

Yeah, I have LW, ET and AN in there for a couple of runs. It's been a pretty successful rotation, probably because the best offensive option w/ that group is to have Lou isolate.

It's really tough to get the minutes to work out well and keep positive rotations on the floor at all times, mostly because Iguodala is in all but one of the positive rotations.

Come playoff time, I'd use JMI for about 30 minutes/game. We've seen Collins go back to it at random times recently, whenever he needs to stabilize.

If only HOlidays last name started with F

They could be IMF :)

I'm not sure I'm getting the hate for lou right now. He was god awful to begin the year, but he's now at the point where he's fairly efficient (54% TS%), and almost never turns the ball over (9.3%). For a scoring guard off the bench, he's filling his role nicely.

Except that he's not used as a scoring guard off the bench. He's used as a point guard off the bench, one who gets the ball and ignores the rest of his team.

He almost never turns the ball over because he almost never passes the damn ball.

yes, his TS% is nice, yes he gets to the line and shoots well from the line, but his eFG% (which ignores the free throws) isn't good

"Except that he's not used as a scoring guard off the bench. He's used as a point guard off the bench"

I don't think so. i've seen this less and less the last few weeks. I think Dre and Jrue are doing the majority of the initiating in the half court.

"He almost never turns the ball over because he almost never passes the damn ball."

That's fine, but he's not the only low-passing guard, and yet he's still fantastic at taking care of the ball. There are ballhandling turnovers as well, after all.

"yes, his TS% is nice, yes he gets to the line and shoots well from the line, but his eFG% (which ignores the free throws) isn't good"

That's because TS% is a more accurate representation of efficiency.

You may not be seeing it but when he's on the floor with Jrue, the ball is mostly in lou's hands and I see jrue standing in the corner.

I would have agreed with that statement 3 weeks ago. I don't think it's been an issue lately.

Besides, that's a coaching problem to me, not Lou's problem.

Overall, I think Lou's filled his role effectively the last few months. I still don't like him as a player, particularly because of his defense, but lately he's been effective.

I think Lou and Thad are really similar in that they can absolutely turn a loss into a win by changing the tide against the other team's second unit. If either one of them is hot, they're capable of carrying the team for a stretch. If both of them are hot, they're capable of completely swinging the game and that's a valuable commodity to have coming off the bench. I do think Collins needs to reel Lou in more than he does, but overall, he's been very good, especially this month.

Lou doesn't look to pass when the ball is in his hands. How many times a game does brand do a roll (or pop) off a pick, wide open from his range, and lou just ignores him.

That's a lou problem.

The coaching problem is putting the ball in lou's hands

but Lou still has a problem passing the damn thing

no one actually said Lou was not a good player. many times his streaky shooting has saved us. I think because of the coach's decisions, he has become our Willie Green.

Honestly, that's an insult to Lou.

http://bkref.com/tiny/s7wPf

Check out FT/36. Willie seems allergic to getting to the free throw line. Lou excels at it, which is vital when you bring a guy in to 'create' his own offense at the end of the games / quarters. He needs to get fouled. Willie is almost allergic to being fouled in the act of shooting.

Lou and Willie are not starters, or great players, but they provide a 'skill', and Lou provides it much better than Willie does.

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 14:33
+/-

Yeah, Lou is good at what he does. Willie Green was a below average player who occasionally got hot shooting long 2's.

The problem with Lou always has been his role. If he is called on to be a scorer that punishes defenses then he is almost elite. Look at those rushed 2 for 1 shots he forces and always makes. Take the decision making out of his hands and he is a deadly scorer. But ask him to be a "PG" and his teammates suffer.

So it is up to the coach to find ways to maximize Lou's strengths and keep him from being a PG. It is very much parallel to Thad. Thad is not a SF. He does not make great decisions from the wing. But give him the ball from 16 feet and he embarrasses guys with his quickness and touch (eve if he is a "player that falls.) Lou and Thad also are below average defenders who have made some strides in that area this year.

The problem is that Lou can damage the team a whole lot more at PG than Thad can at SF. So it is even more important to keep Lou in the mode of scorer instead of PG. Teams need scorers just like they need pure shooter. But just like Meeks should not be handling the ball excessively, Lou should not be running the offense unless the play is designed for him to shoot.

user-pic
jkay reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 14:54
+/-

the analogy of player in ill-fitted role is my emphasis.

Hmmmm LouMeeks is a disaster and yet it gets plenty of minutes. Collins shouldn't need numbers to tell him that, just common sense. A catch and shoot guy alongside a player who dominates the ball and rarely passes. Ok then.

Agreed. Not sure what Collins is thinking there. Meeks has played well but I think Collins is going a bit overboard on his minutes lately.

Along the same lines...

Do you think Collins would fully shut down Iguodala for a couple of weeks if he had a comfort level with playing Turner in his spot?

Looking at 38 minutes for Iguodala and 3 for Turner, it seems like Collins is not ready even give Turner a shot at filling in. It's like he gave him a 1 game try-out against Portland and then decided Turner is not reliable.

We've talked to death the whole Turner's future thing and the Turner fit thing. But I'm actually more concerned about the Turner/Collins relationship angle. When ET's relationship with Collins is equated to Speights' then that sounds like deep trouble. But maybe after this summer they et on the same page?

Turners future is already written in stone haven't you heard? Should be traded for McGrady

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 14:36
+/-

Yeah. Intentionally not going there...

Good point about their relationship. I'm really not sure where it goes from here. I don't think there's a personal animosity, so you'd hope that a summer of hard work from Turner that translates on the floor next year would smooth out whatever's going on there.

In the short-term, it would be great to see him take the bull by the horns. I feel like he's regressed to the point of being a non-factor again. Pretty much the same as early in the year where he either wasn't given a role, didn't understand, couldn't play it, or didn't demand it.

I wonder if the sixers weren't in the race for the six (ok five) seed, would Turners leash be shorter? Turner and Speights shouldn't be grouped together because I think they're two different issues.

If there's an NBA lockout and it works like in the NFL - that screws Turner development if he can't work out at the sixers practice facility with sixers coaches (if he wants)

I know Collins has a 'short leash' history with rookies, but how do those rookies that turned out to be long term good players do in their second year?

I think Collins doesn't trust Turner, he hasn't earned it, he's inconsistent, and he's playing for seeding and doesn't know what to expect. Nocioni sucks but he knows what to expect and maybe that knowledge makes Collins more comfortable.

Turner needs to work on a bunch of stuff this off season, not sure modeling after Roy is the best idea, but he needs to adjust his game to his strenghts and weaknesses in the NBA

If memory serves, Turner has played more than any other rookie Collins has ever had. Let me check.

You are actually correct his minutes per game are the highest of all rookies Collins has ever coached. There are 5-6 others that come close though (more than 17 but less than Turners 23.3) including guys like Pippen, Horace Grant, Brandan Haywood and Theo Ratliff.

Actually, here's a comp you may enjoy.

user-pic
jkay reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 15:09
+/-

to be fair to DC, most coaches don't play rookies.
Greg Pop, Sloan, even Phil J, among successful ones

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 14:55
+/-

I get the sense that The Sixers really want to avoid Chicago and Boston- so the 6th seed is pretty important. I think in Collins mind it would be better to face Miami or Orlando with an achy Iguodala than face Chicago with a rested Iguodala. At least that is the what his decision makking suggests.

I think the Sixers can end up 6th without Iguodala for the the remainder of the regular season. They have 4 very winnable games left even without Iguodala and two more where they should be favored to win even without him. They can get above .500 easily i think, which is something i don't think New York will accomplish.

I'd keep riding him until after the NYK game. Beat the Knicks and you may very well bury them, then you can rest him and finish sixth. Of course, if Atlanta keeps playing like this, then I think you have to go for #5.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 15:32
+/-

If the 2nd tiebreaker is conference record, it's gonna be awfully hard for the sixers to catch the Hawks, unless they completely melt down and finish something like 2-8 in their last 10 games. Is it possible? Sure...

@ CHA
@ WAS
@ IND
@ CLE
v NJN

My guess is they would have to lose at least 3 of these games for the Sixers to have a shot at the 5 seed...and even if that happens the Sixers would have to win at least one (and perhaps 2) of the three roadies with BOS, CHI and MIA to get there.

If I had to choose between playing balls-out to MAYBE catch ATL and shutting Iguopdala down for two weeks and play MIA or BOS, I would probably choose the latter.

It's hard to see them not winning three of the 5 you listed.

Basically, if they finish 5-5, we need to finish 9-2 to take over 5th. Add and subtract games from there. I think 3-7, 7-4 is probably doable. Anything else is pushing it.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 16:00
+/-

Even if they finish 4-6, it is hard to see them with more than 21 conference losses - which is where the Sixers are right now...which means they would have to not only run the table @ BOS, CHI and MIA, but they would almost have to run the table period - as 9 of their last 11 games are conference games (including another potential toughie @ MIL and the Magic at home).

Unless the Hawks go 3-7 (with the RIGHT losses) or 2-8, I think the Sixers are @ 6...which means we should be shutting Iguodala down sooner rather than later. I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta wins its next two games (home versus NJN and @ CLE) that the Sixers will start gameplanning on when they have the 6 seed sewed up enough to shut Iguodala down.

If you shut down Iguodala there's no guarantee the sixers KEEP six...it's not like it's an insurmountable lead. It's 2 games.

user-pic
bebopdeluxe reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 16:54
+/-

I'm not saying that you shut him down on Monday. All that I am saying is that once the probability of getting the 5 becomes low enough (and I would argue that if the Hawks win their next two games and the Sixers lose tomorrow night, it drops pretty dramatically), then you start thinking about preparing to shut Iguodala down...and that's not just having him sitting with a suit on. That's not playing him 40 minutes in a game that you may not win...or lowering his minutes in a back-to-back if possible.

While I think that you have to continue to try to get the 5 as long as it is reasonably possible, once the probability of getting that spot gets low enough I care more about Iguodala being as healthy as possible than whether we finish 6 or 7 (unless the Bulls are at 2).

If they believe they can catch Atlanta (which i think is possible) than surely Iguodala has to play. But if they don't there is little reason to play him unless he is healthy. The disparity between the winnable games and the other ones is so huge that i don't think Iguodala will make much of a difference. There are only 3-4 games that fall in between.

I get the sense the sixers are trying to win as many games as possible and that playoff positioning is asinine.

Can I just say, from a comcast point of view, they probably REALLY don't want the five seed. Attendance wise, I think Orlando probably rank fourth behind the top 3 in terms of 'average fan' sell outs.

If I'm Comcast I want Boston or Miami - purely for attendance reasons. More likely to sell out.

Yeah, I mentioned that the other day. Miami is probably a sure sellout for two games, at least. Boston and Chicago probably are as well. I doubt they sell out against Orlando.

I think of the three Chicago is least likely to be a sell out to the 'average' fan - unless they think Jordan is still in the NBA. In order of comcast preference I believe it goes

1. Miami
2. Boston
3. (Distant) Chicago
4. (Please god no) Orlando

Honestly i think they all have a very good chance to be sellouts, because there is a lot more buzz around the team this year than in previous years IMO. As for Orlando, they are less likely to be a sellout but offer a huge chance for another series where any game would definitely be a sellout. Comcast has to like that.

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 16:25
+/-

But if they beat Orlando and get to the second round they will sell out the 2nd round and probably average a couple thousand more fans a game next year.

Oh right

People think they'll beat orlando in a 7 game series without home court advantage.

I forgot

Based on how well Meeks have played, i think he deserves Nocionis minutes. ET can play point forward from the SF position in those minutes, so even if Lou and Meeks are together on the court they will be pared with a creator. The key here is not going with Lou iso in those situations but running an offense with Turner as the initiator and Lou and Meeks both running off screens.

The results w/ Lou and Meeks on the floor together have been terrible, pretty much across the board.

Although I just realized I left out the ultra-small lineup of Jrue, Lou, Meeks at the 1/2/3.

Minutes: 74.23
Possessions for: 169
Possessions against: 159
Points for: 196
Points against: 178
OFR: 115.98
DFR: 111.95
DIF: +4.03
Pace: 106.05

So that one becomes an option and I'd probably give that group one of the runs I gave to Lou/Turner/Nocioni.

I know that the lineup featuring Lou and Meeks is terrible but that's mostly because of the type of offense they run during the stretch. Having Lou and Meeks is already a problem in the defensive end so Lou isolations won't get it done offensively to warrant such a lineup. But if Turner plays SF with them and handles the ball and runs the offense i think, the results would be different. The Lou/Meeks/Turner lineup right now is Lou iso parade unfortunately most of the time, which limits the potential of the lineup significantly IMO.

Your grace period has officially ended.

This is an interesting post -- thanks. A meta-question about it: I'm interested in understanding some of the advanced stats you periodically use a little better. Can anyone refer me to a primer on some of these stats and what they mean? Thanks. (Also, does there exist on the Internet data sets of raw NBA data that someone can download and mess with in a statistical package? I have a stats background and would be interested in messing around with the numbers a bit.)

The best book I've read on the matter is Basketball On Paper, by Dean Oliver. You can get a basic grasp in the glossary page on basketball-reference.com

Most basic stats are available from b-r.com, you have to scrape them and put them into a spreadsheet. +/- and rotational stats are available from basketballvalue.com there's a lot you can do with their stuff.

user-pic
FKD215 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 16:15
+/-

Thanks, Brian. I appreciate it.

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 16:27
+/-

In terms of stat sources:

82games.com
Basketball-refernce.com

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 24 at 16:28
+/-

sorry, typo above,
Basketball-reference.com
also hoppdata.com

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 24 at 16:29
+/-

another typo..... ugggh

hoopdata.com

Yeah, hoopdata.com is great. They have shot location data you really can't find anywhere else.

Video: Thaddeus Young after Thursday's practice on the Sixers facing the Heat Friday in Miami:

http://ow.ly/4lLNc

Collins after Thursday's practice on the challenge of playing the Heat:

http://ow.ly/4lMkr

It's one thing to be wrong, its another to be intentionally obtuse because you have some idiotic way of thinking about basketball

Am i the only one who finds it really funny that said poster wrote that?

Check out Tom's latest video w/ Collins. Coach talks about the upcoming heat game and finishes it off talking about Hawes' game on the blocks last night.

I did notice he was trying moves down there, but they weren't very successful and he had a 6'8" guy on him when he was doing it, so I wasn't all that impressed.

HawesHater

hater of hawes

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 16:30
+/-

S.pencer
H.awes
I.s
T.errible

Iguodala should be out for Friday right?
If after 5 days rest, he was as gimpy as that, then he plays starters minutes, even had to get sat after he strained the knee on a JJ close-out.
What kind of shot are they gonna give him that's going to make him able to guard Lebron on Friday?

Is a limited Iguodala a worse option than Nocioni?

Wheelchair-bound Iguodala is better than Nocioni, imo.

Yes, but if rest helps him heal better (whch is the case in his situation), than there is little reason to play him. Actually i'd shut him down for the next three (@MIA, vs SAC, @CHI on a b2b).

5 days rest didn't seem to do much.

I trust the trainers more than I trust the folks here.

If they feel he isn't going to get any worse let him play, but 5 days off didn't help, and they're still in a race for seeding.

Ugh. He probably will be shut down for the Chicago game, which pisses me off. I'm going to be there. He was out for one of the early games I was at too, at NYK.

Shit. Rest him for the first game of that back-to-back, please. They can take Sacto without him.

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 16:35
+/-

I'm in the Chicago area... but will be watching from home.

The only time I watched a Philly team in a hostile venue was the Eagles in Miami... and those fans were far from hostile :) Of course I was not decked out in eagles gear.

Good idea to wear my sixers warmup or no?

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 17:17
+/-

I've never been to a Bulls game. If we were talking bears I would say no to wearing gear. But I don't know much about Bulls fans. It does seem like a good atmosphere and they always sell out. Enjoy you time in the city. Its not the best time to visit, but Chicago always is good for a short trip.

Restaurant recommendendation for the wife and I? Kids are sitting this trip out.

All I can tell you about CHicago is don't eat that atrocity they call 'pizza' - it's just a freaking bad lasagna

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 19:30
+/-

That's a tough one. Too many choices and depends on where you are staying. And I'm probably not the best expert since I'm not a local and don't live in town. But you should be able to find a good one for any type of food except "normal Pizza."

In terms of cheap local fare Chicago style pizza, dogs and Italian beef are all plentiful (Portillos is a great chain.) Just don't expect it to be the same as the Philly or East coast analogues. Not better or wore, just different.

Also. theater is surprisingly great. Its less about musicals like NY or London. But lots of quality/affordable drama (I can't stand most musicals anyways.) If interested check out cheaptixx.com. Sort or like TKTS.

Yeah, the first night is mine (sixers/bulls) the second night is my wife's and I think she's going to want to take in a show and go out for a nice dinner. We're staying on N. State by Grand, I think.

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 21:12
+/-

Sorry, gave you the wrong site. Get the 1/2 price theater tickets at www.hottix.org

That is the official site of the League of Chicago Theatres. Good reviews at:

http://www.theatreinchicago.com/tictop.php

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 24 at 21:14
+/-

Also http://www.theatreinchicago.com/reviewlistings.php
and http://chicagotheaterblog.com/

There are 82 plays on in Chicago right now. Most you can go to for $12-$25 with discounts.

user-pic
tk76 reply to Brian on Mar 24 at 21:17
+/-

If you have not been to Chicago much check out the bar on the top floor of the Hancock bld. Its free, easy to get to and much better than going to an observatory.

user-pic
jkay reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 15:41
+/-

do we believe a 50% Iggy gives us a good enough chance to win, that we risk aggravating the injury?
Even when healthy, Bron's overly physical game would take a lot out of Iguodala. He is their primary ball handler too. Lots of on-the-ball defense needed too.

My understanding is that Iguodala's injury is such that he can't actually aggravate it by playing. But he needs rest for the injury to heal.

How much rest would you like him to have before he gets rusty.

5 days didn't do much. Should they give him a couple weeks? Is it a good idea to shut a guy down for a few weeks and then expect him not to be rusty come playoff time.

I'm not saying Iguodala is Kobe Bryant (have to preface this). Kobe Bryant injures his finger - doctors say it won't get worst if he plays - he can play with the pain - he plays. If they tell him it ain't gonna get worse, and he can rest after the season, let him play, he's still a better option than Nocioni or Turner right now

The thing is i don't care about right now, i care about what's the better option for the playoffs. A healthy Iguodala is the best options for the playoffs, and the only way they will even have a prayer at a win in the playoffs. Besides i don't think he needs to be shut down for that long. Rest him until for a week until March 30th and the Houston game. He will have two weeks to get back in rhythm. He already had 5 days of rest 7 more certainly won't hurt. Besides there is very little chance he can influence the outcome of the upcoming three games played in that span.

steve toll only sane person on this website

It's just an Anagram

Sell to vete

user-pic
jkay reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 15:54
+/-

level tots?

user-pic
tk76 reply to jkay on Mar 24 at 16:36
+/-

Tell Stevo?

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 24 at 16:53
+/-

Elves Lott
Sleet Volt
Love T Test
stove tell

user-pic
tk76 reply to tk76 on Mar 24 at 16:55
+/-

LT sole vet

user-pic
Tom Moore on Mar 24 at 15:53
+/-

Collins on Meeks: "One of the things we’ve done is we’ve let Jodie know how important he is to our team. He’s a little like John Paxson when he played for me (with the Bulls)."

In the realm of why bother - Brakcins was sent back to the D-league today. Not sure why they keep bringing him back to do nothing but sit on the bench.

I love how you told the guy who writes the blog and the person who writes 99 percent of the material to shut the fuck up. This is even before considering Brian is pretty civil in conversation compared to most, myself included.

His last name of 'toll' immediately set of trolling bells but resorting to the bet (25,000 dollars wow) gives it away.

user-pic
tk76 reply to GoSixers on Mar 24 at 17:13
+/-

Utah traded away Deron to make room for Jimmer.

Jimmer
Miles
Hayward
Favors
Al Jeff

Not really scary...

Whether it's right or wrong, Jimmer Fredette on a mediocre Utah Jazz team is probably a bigger draw than Deron Williams on a non title team in Utah.

And Now i'm flashing back to the big love finale (awesome finale by the way)

which brightens my day after finding out sucker punch might win a razzie this year :(

Brian, interesting post. Here's a question for you: is basketballvalue.com's "1 Year Unadjusted Offensive (Defensive)" ratings the same as "regular" Offensive and Defensive ratings on other sites? Because the numbers for the Sixers don't match at all what is published on basketball-reference.com.

For example, on BV, Jrue is OR=109 and DR=106, while on BR, Jrue has OR=104 and DR=105. On BV, Lou has OR=106 and DR=104, while on BR, Lou has OR=112 and DR=108. Since lineup point differential is the primary metric for your analysis, it's important to understand the discrepancies (Jrue has a negative ORTG-DRTG differential according to BR).

On BV, Jrue's value comes mainly from the team's tremendous dropoff in offensive performance when he is not on court. The team actually improves defensively when he's not on court. Lou is better than Jrue for DRTG on BV, worse on BR. Am I missing something here?

B-R.com uses individual stats to get their OFR, it's not team points scored per 100 possessions, it's player's points scored per 100 possessions used. BV.com is the team number, based on the actual points/possession as the have them.

DFR is the team number on both, but they calculate their possessions differently. Or I guess I should say B-R.com calculates their possessions, whereas BV.com simply adds them up. B-R.com uses a formula to estimate possessions, BV.com uses play-by-play scrapes to actually "count" the possessions. I tend to think BV.com is more accurate in their DFR numbers, but I don't trust their offensive rebounding numbers. When you're talking about OFR, you're really comparing apples to oranges on B-R and BV. B-R is essentially a calculation of TS% and TOV% for the individual.

Thanks for the clarification. That's actually pretty crazy (and misleading) that B-R.com uses the individual definition for ORtg and the team definition for DRtg.

If I understand you correctly, DRtg shouldn't vary much between the sites, but Lou's is 108 for B-R.com and 104 for BV.com. Seems like a large difference if it's solely due to counting possessions differently.

Maybe Coach Collins reads BV.com, because on that site Lou is the better defender by all metrics (so bringing him in to protect a lead makes sense).

Yeah, that's a really big spread.


Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment


back-to-story.gif