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The Iguodala Effect

well done Brian. the trend is most pronounced defensively.

taking into account the above, I hope Iguodala sits till Saturday. If he's rusty on offense, we can survive that. Let him be in top shape to chase Lebron through the 4 games.

If we can shut one of the two down, then just maybe we might have a chance.

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jkay reply to jkay on Apr 13 at 1:27
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oops, credit to the Statman.

taking into account the above, I hope Iguodala sits till Saturday. If he's rusty on offense, we can survive that.

I do think he needs to be mentally sharp and engaged on offense. Don't know if you noticed, but in several recent key matchups, his man (LeBron, Durant, Carmelo, Pierce) has been able to crash the defensive boards and have big defensive rebounding games because he's often standing beyond the 3-point line, not involved (and not a major threat to score). We saw signs of his coming alive late in the Knicks game (not coincidentally their best stretch of that game) and late in the Raptors game, but he'll need to be sharp the whole game in the playoffs.

While the offense can survive without his best, the offense is at its best when he's at his best, making up for the lack of a go-to scorer with team play and better-than-average passing (Iguodala and Jrue) to set up players who can make shots when properly set up (Brand, Thad, Meeks, Jrue).

...maybe Iggy's injury was worse earlier than he let on, and that is why Collins was in win every game mode instead of develop Turner and Speights mode?

completely unrelated to anything, but check out the tweetstorm today between @spencerhawes00 and @thekidet making fun of each other during the @louwill23 bone marrow registry drive...does anybody know a better way of posting tweets than ugly copy/pasting?

Great stuff, Statman.

The only thing that really matters heading into this series is having Iguodala as close to 100% as possible. It's going to be nearly impossible either way, but if they're going to have any shot, they need Iguodala defending one or the other of those guys. I wish he could guard both of them.

I liken it to being able to defend a high-powered passing attack in the NFL when you have one shutdown corner (e.g., Revis in 2009, Deion Sanders in his prime). If the shutdown corner is able to limit one receiver, then the rest of the secondary can zone up on the others. Similarly, if Iguodala can single-cover one or the other of LeBron or Wade (probably LeBron), then the team can send help on Wade and take their chances with Bosh.

It didn't work in the last Heat game because LeBron was hot from outside and Iguodala couldn't single-cover him effectively. And Iguodala hasn't been the shutdown defender recently that he has been most of the season; hopefully the break will help him get back to that. We'll see early on if he's moving his feet and not picking up early fouls.


The stats basically reveal the impact we've seen from Iguodala for a long time now. They really need him to contain Lebron and reduce his impact to manageable levels in the coming playoff series. If Iguodala is not at full health and Lou remains sidelined, we are gonna get swept.

Another key guy for the playoff series is Young IMO. He looks really pumped up for the playoffs this year and i think he will break out in a big way in the playoffs. I'm just not sure that's a good thing with his pending restricted free agency.

Anyone who thinks this team is not significantly better with iggy is delusional. I appreciate you taking your time to quantify this but if people opened their eyes, or minds, then this would have been obvious.

That being said I'm still in the trade iggy camp just because if they play it right I think it would be for the greater good of the team in the long run.

Brian, this is off topic but I've been looking into the 2012 draft a lot lately and was wondering if you had any thoughts on it? It looks like it will be one of the strongest drafts in years at the top, obviously its too soon to tell but it seems to be trending that way. I think the sixers should start to look into trying to acquire picks from teams that project to be in the lottery next year. Quincy Miller is the player I think has the best chance to be a super star of the group but there are plenty more that have that potential. I'm bringing this up because I'd like the sixers to be able to hit the ground running once they get out from under brands contract. But of course if turner comes out next year looking like the player we think he can be then getting those picks wouldn't be all that necessary.

Once again sorry for going off topic its just that I see the end of this season is near and I can't help but think about the future of the sixers

Story: Sixers have some concerns heading into playoffs:

http://ow.ly/4ziIK

I think we should consider putting iggy on D-Wade when jrue isnt in the game,or Evan Turner, because D-Wade is the one guy we cant allow to score at will

We could have a chance if we force lebron to be the scorer, because we all know how he chokes in the clutch

Statman wrote:
"As the Sixers limp toward the end of the regular season, there has been quite a bit of discussion as to whether their play of late is more reflective of their true identity (slightly below-average team) than their great 20-9 stretch from January to early March."

Both stretches are reflective of this team.

1. They are very young. Youth and inconsistency tend to go hand in hand. You play well when your confidence level is high and struggle when doubt seeps in. This is true for all teams- but more-so for young teams without superstars to lean on for consistent production.

2. As Collins points out, this team is "greater than the sum of its parts." If a team with 2 major stars loses one of its non-stars to injury they can ususally adapt. But the Sixers rely on so many role players to fill specific needs and also rely heavily on chemistry. Once one part is not clicking (even if it is a Brand or Iguodala playing at only 70%) the other guys are not good enough to raise their games consistently to compensate. Again, this is less of an issue ion star driven teams. They get consistent production form the stars- who can also raise their game for stretches if the team needs them.

...

So the Sixers are a .500 or slightly better team. They can play at a top 10 level when everything is clicking. They can play at a bottom 12 level when a few guys are banged up. And they will go through prolonged hot and cold stretches in their season and in individual games because they don't get high level consistent production. The closest they have to that is Brand and Iguodala. And when those guys are not able to play at a high level the rest of their young/inconsistent parts sputter.

This is not a criticism, just an observation. No one would say Iguodala or Brand is a top 15 NBA player. Nor would they expect the under 24 group to be consistent.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 13 at 10:40
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So what I am saying is that they are not simply the 20-9 or 30-17 team. They can play at that level for reasonably long stretches when they are healthy and everything is clicking. That's good and hopefully a positive step as the young/inconsistent players grow.

But you can't dismiss the other games and say they are better than their current 16th best record. 16th out of 30 teams. Average. You can probably cluster them with the 5 other teams within 3 games of the Sixers and say they fall somewhere between 13th and 18th (Atl, NY, Hou, Phl, Phx, Uta.) But I don't buy any argument that says they are a class above all of those teams.

They do fall into that group. They are a 13-18 team at the moment. What separates them from those other teams is that most of their core players are far younger. And if those players improve, which of course should be expected, one can safely say that they will be a class above those teams.

I agree with this analysis. My belief is that the main difference between now and the stretch from February to mid-March where they were arguably a top-ten team is Iguodala's inability to play at the top of his game. A typical Iguodala game in the middle of the run was on 3/8 (the win at Indiana), fore example: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 10 assists, 2 steals, 2 turnovers. It seems that around or after the OT game at Utah on 3/14, that type of game disappeared for the most part.

You're right about the inability of the rest of the team to step up (Jrue has the potential to do it one day, but I doubt he can carry the team right now). The team fills its roles well "when everything is clicking," as you put it, but they don't have a lot of flexibility to step beyond those roles. Ironically, the team played better in the first stretch without Iguodala (in December) than in more recent games without him, and I wonder if that's because they hadn't gotten used to certain roles at that point.

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tk76 reply to Statman on Apr 13 at 11:25
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Yeah, I'm not sure why Jrue was able to step up earlier this year and be a 19/8 50% guy he was the first time Igudoala missed games.

But he is 20, inconsistency is to be expected. The talent is there.

You could argue that the three most consistent producers for this team have been Iguodala, Brand and Lou. Lou''s efficiency goes up and down, but the guy gives them bench scoring and a weapon that changes the pace of the game (not always in a good way :) So when all 3 were limited due to injuries the team sputters.

The good news is that Brand has been playing well and Lou is back. The bad news is that they are playing the Heat in a 7 game series. Not the best time to try and work out the kinks.

It will be interesting to see if the team surprises like they did in the Pistons series or if they get burred. Either scenario is a possibility.

The nearly 5-to-1 ratio tilt tilts the proffered numbers towards near-insignificance. The trend that is most spotted is the author's pro-Iguodala bias. Adjacent columnizing is trickery. 67. And 14. Comparitive numbers have some interest value, but as conclusionary evidence they're flimsy.

Video: Collins on LeBron James and the recent shooting struggles of starters Holiday, Meeks and Hawes:

http://ow.ly/4znly

Also Holiday video on tonight's "big" game and not wanting to discuss Heat yet

Blog: Collins on Sixers' 'emotional letdown' since clinching playoff spot:

http://ow.ly/4zofi

Game 1 is Saturday at 3:30pm on ABC. I'm fucked, going to have to watch it on DVR late that night.

I strictly recommend not to hold off until you get big sum of money to buy different goods! You should just get the loans or bank loan and feel yourself fine


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