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Adjustments and Readjustments

Fun with numbers, playoff edition:

Jrue Holiday playoff ranks in NBA history for players 20 and under (min 14 pts/g). Only 15 plays make this list. 13 have played in multiple All- Star games.

http://bkref.com/tiny/NwiDZ

WS/48: 3rd
pts/g: 12th
Asst/g: 5th
stl/g: 2rd
3pt: 3rd in makes, 1st % min 3 att
A/TO:4th (CWebb 9:3, KG 3.7:1.3, Jennings 3.6:1.1)
TS%: 2nd (.596%)
eFG%: 2nd (.541)
Usage rate: 2nd to last at 1935. Only Magic was lower.
ORTG: 4th (110)

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speeke reply to tk76 on Apr 27 at 2:50
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such an awesome stat line

Story: Sixers get into 'Heated' exchanges:

http://ow.ly/4GiJL

Game story: Sixers flip script on Heat:

http://ow.ly/4GjEb

I haven't commented in a while - mostly because the sixers give me a heart attack in general, but especially EVERYTIME HAWES AND LOU TOUCH THE BALL, IGUODALA FROM THE CORNER 3. But after this win, I felt the need to say to the regulars here at depressedfan.com that I'm still alive, but barely.

I feel like Evan Turner is my little kid who I know is underachieving and I want to see him succeed so badly. Especially because I feel bad about his awkward voice.

I don't have any finger nails left, so for Miami, I'm subjected to the fact that I'll eat my hand and my shoe.

I predict a brutal loss to el Heat on Game 5, but it's nice to know ET is still capable of flashes at the end of his long rookie season, that JRUE loves to shoot at crucial times, and that people STILL BITE everytime LOU pumpfakes.

Brian, great job with this analysis. The whole Jrue on LeBron matchup reminds me of when Stephen Jackson guarded Nowitzki with surprising effectiveness for the Warriors in 06-07. If the Heat were smart, they would tell LeBron to play his normal game when Jrue guards him and not worry about backing Jrue down. LeBron is most effective in the halfcourt when he builds up a head of steam and takes the ball to the basket. He can also get his jump shot off against Jrue more easily than against Iguodala, but the Sixers probably don't mind if he takes jumpers.

Jrue's on ball defense has been good overall vs. both LeBron and Wade, but if he guards Wade, he's got to make sure he doesn't lose track of Wade moving off the ball. That's what killed the Sixers in Game 3 (Wade did score 32 on 19 shots that game, about half of those on Jrue).

I'm a little worried that Iguodala still looks a half step (or full step) slow in lateral quickness on defense (because of his injury?) and will get into foul trouble again if LeBron takes the ball to the basket aggressively in Game 5. Then it will be up to Turner to reproduce his Game 4 performance. That Turner held his own on both ends in Game 4 was a revelation.

Last comment: I can't remember a recent NBA game that reminded me more of noontime pickup basketball at the local gym, when the best three guys in the gym get saddled with the worst two guys (the runt who can't do anything but shoot and shoots poorly, the lumbering clumsy guy who is the slowest guy on the court). I know Bibby and Ilgauskas aren't normally as bad as they looked in Game 4, but if they continue to play that badly, how long will Miami keep playing 3-on-5?


Yeah, Z and Bibby just look like corpses out there. They got those o-boards from Z in game three, and pretty much nothing else from either of them the rest of the series.

That play you brought up in a previous thread was just shocking. LeBron set a pick for Bibby near the corner and both Iguodala and Jrue went with LeBron, just completely ignoring Bibby who missed the 15-foot baseline jumper. He also missed a bunch of open looks from three. He's not going to miss those shots regularly, but as long as he's cold, he's nothing.

Their best lineup is probably Anthony, Bosh, LeBron, Jones, Wade. Anthony gives them interior defense and no offense, Jones gives them a three point shooter and nothing else.

How much are they paying Mike Miller, btw? They really screwed the pooch w/ that contract, considering their limited flexibility with the salaries of the big three.

Good point about Miller, I was wondering if the Heat were going to try him at all in this series. Even if Miller isn't hitting his shot (which he hasn't most of the year), he's not a complete zero like Bibby is when Bibby isn't hitting. Miller is an excellent rebounder for his size and a decent passer (Bibby's passing, meanwhile, has been just as poor as his shooting, it seems).

Old-timers like Suede (and CharlieH?) will remember that the late 70's Sixers were saddled with Bibby's father, Henry Bibby, a scrappy player who was ultimately not very good. Thankfully, Mo Cheeks came along in '78.

I'm surprised Miller hasn't played at all. He is the only player outside of the big three who is actually a complete player and not just a very limited role player. But i guess his injury issues this season have rendered him useless for the time being. Maybe he will show up next season.

I thought Miller was hurt in one of the first two games?

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Charlie H reply to Statman on Apr 25 at 12:51
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'78 - '79 were the years I didn't follow too closely. I'd look at the box scores and wonder who this Cheeks guy was starting every game.

I remember Cunningham saying that Bibby would go through a wall for him.

Speaking of encouraging playoff performances from our youngsters here are two interesting comparisons for both Jrue and Turner

http://tinyurl.com/3usta33

http://tinyurl.com/3flzf2x

Nice to see the future of the franchise perform historically well in the playoffs.

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deepsixersuede reply to Xsago on Apr 25 at 11:41
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Jru's style of play, no not level of play yet, reminds me more and more of Billups as the playoffs go on. He is a physical defender and as Wade said postgame he takes the big 3pt. shot when least expected; not a bad start to his playoff career.

Like I said above, 15 NBA players at age 20 or less have scored 15pts/g in the playoffs. 13 of them have gone to multiple ALL Star games. the other two are Jrue and Jennings. And of those 15 Jrue's numbers stand out as some of the best. 6th in PER and 3rd for WS/48. Only 3 games, but tremendous start.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 12:10
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In fact you can loosen it to every 20 year old who has scored at l;east 10 pts/g in the playoffs. And Jrue ranks 7th in PER and 9th in WS/48.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 12:21
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Sorry, type. Players age 20, scoring 10+ pts/g in the playoffs:

Jrue 7th PER, 4th WS/48.

19 players. 11 of the 19 went on to be in multiple All Star games.

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 12:26
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Limit to 13+ pts/G... Jrue is 6th all time in PER and 3rd in WS/48.

That list is 13 players. 11 repeat All-Stars, Jrue and Jennings.

More cherry-picked numbers:

Playoff Games in NBA history where a 20 year old goes for at least 19 pts, 5 assists and 1 stl:

9 games in NBA history. 2 of the 9 games have been by Jrue.

Same criteria with 2 turnovers or less... Only 3X. Jrue, Jrue and Jennings. No one else age 20 in NBA history goes for 19/5 1 stll, 2 or less TO's in playoff history.

doug collins makes halftime adjustment to miami traps in game four:

http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/04/25/miamis-pick-and-roll-traps-and-how-the-sixers-handled-them/

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tk76 reply to jaypiddler on Apr 25 at 13:03
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Cool. Thanks for the break down.

nbaplaybook is a really cool site, I was about to link the 2 Sxiers breakdowns myself.

Turner was an unreal player in college, so you know he's got the talent. He can really be a key piece for the Sixers going forward, especially against teams like the Heat. Miami struggles to get production from anybody outside the Big 3. Teams like that are particularly vulnerable to squads that regularly get balanced production from the starters and from the bench. If Turner can step up and provide 10-15 points/night, the Sixers will get more of that balance that will allow them to win games just like they did last night, with balance. Check it out:

http://sportstatistics.blogspot.com/2011/04/nba-playoffs-weekend-recap.html

As bad as Anthony is on offense, I think Spoelstra played right into Doug's hands by going extra small there. Collins probably thought, "Oh wait, not only do I want to play Turner and Lou here, but you can let me do it comfortably. Thank you!"

I still haven't watched the game on replay yet, but Jrue I think Jrue did do a good job on Wade, but don't forget that it looked like they were doubling hard (usually off the "point guard" in Miami's quirky set-up) every time Wade got it in the post. Lucky for them, Mike Bibby couldn't even make open threes.

The thing that I think can be watched is how Iguodala picked up his 1st foul yesterday. He sagged into the lane to help Jrue with a Wade drive and he closed out way too hard on LeBron IMO and got a blocking foul as LeBron blew by him. As long as LBJ (this goes for Wade too) can't sneak behind the defense for lobs, there's no reason you can't help off either of them to corral one person's drive and dare the other to be a shooter. I'd imagine that's what other teams do down the stretch here.

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tk76 reply to Rich on Apr 25 at 14:22
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I think Jrue and Turner have gotten a bit better defensively against the Lebron and Wade as the series has progressed. In fact I think Jrue has gotten a lot better to the point where neither Wade or Lebron attack him as much because they know he is solid.

This is interesting given Jrue's up and down defense all year. We always knew he has good defensive tools- nice to see he gets better against some of the best with further acquaintance.

BTW, if I were Spoelstra I would completely focus on Jrue. When Jrue is struggling this team is dead in the water. When he is playing freely they essentially can go toe to toe.

Quick "trending" based on the series so far:

Jrue ++
Turner ++ (from a much lower starting spot
Lou + (these last 10 games have illustrated Lou's value to THIS team- despite his warts)

Young: ++ game 1 then --
Iguodala -
Speights --
Noce --
Hawes -
Meeks - (although I believe he has defended Wade well)
Brand: even (which is a net positive considering he is ++ from 1 year ago)
Batman: +

Collins: +
Got the team to respond and the outcome of the games were generally not bad given the talent gap.

Stefanski: -
The team's talent level and utter lack of a future in the frontcourt is really glaring when measured against Miami.

I agree with stefanski when he says they're a big man away from being able to play with anyone. Unfortunately, the big man is Howard.

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Tray reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 14:38
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Another way of saying we're a superstar away. I mean, you add Tyson Chandler to this team and we don't suddenly contend. Though you might disagree.

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Rich reply to Tray on Apr 25 at 14:54
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Not for a title, no. They might be a legit five seed though.

With a guy like Chandler, they would need an upgrade scoring the ball on the perimeter, but as constructed:

Jrue-Meeks-Iguodala-Brand-Chandler with Turner, Lou and Thad off the bench would be an interesting up and comer.

I looked at this yesterday, and the roster as currently constructed I believe is a legit 5 seed in the east. If they went 7-9 instead of 3-13 to start the season they would have ended up with 4 more wins and a better record than the hawks (by one game)

I don't buy the knicks as vastly improved, plus Amare is still injury prone (which is why the suns didn't want to give him 100 million dollars and five years).

Also - if the Magic lose this series, I could see massive upheaval in Orlando in a desperate move to try and convince Dwight not to force a trade.

But seriously, if the sixers had just not started out god awful they'd be the 5 seed already.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 14:48
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Long term agree. Bismack! (Just joking, it is my new battle cry symbolic of unrealistic hope.)

Depending on how he responded to Collins, they probably are a Sammy away from being really in this series. Although lots of variables, like team chemistry and Brand having room to operate.

Do you think Minny would try and kick start their team (and try and appease fellow US team member Love) by trading for Iguodala?

Something like Wes Johnson, Flynn and Darko for Iguodala?

On the negative these guys all have contracts as long as Iguodala's and none will be as good of a player. On the positive, you get 3 players who could fill needs for the price of 1. But only Wes has a chance to be a starter. All 3 players are 25 or younger.

Is that too much of a step back or lateral move. Or is it an incremental move a rebuilding team makes to help build a solid, affordable roster? Obviously they would still need to find a starting center... so maybe you can't trade Iguodala without a starting center coming back?

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 14:58
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In terms of those 3 players:

1.Wes Johnson you hope to become the perfect piece next to Jrue and Turner. The lynch-pin of the trade. If he works out long term then the trade is a good one if you conceded that J/T/I likely will never work like you'd like.

2. Flynn is sort of like a top minor league prospect or back-up QB. You hope he either develops to replace Lou or he increases in value to be a viable trade chip on his own. he is young and talented enough to possibly become something, and I'm guessing he lacks much of a future in Minny.

3. Darko is an 8 year vet at age 25. I think he could be a nice 20 min a game defensive big off the bench. His rebounding numbers are probably a bit down this year because of Love. And he can block shots and give you some rudimentary offense. Really not a bad piece to have for 4M/yr. Especially since his terrible developmental years are past.

Agsin, not a "great trade." But I'm not convinced a guy scheduled to make 14M/yr for 3 seasons who does not draw fans has a ton of trade value. You either flip him for a similarly paid vet like Kaman, or you move him for 3 unspectacular younger players.

If you're giving me the choice between an overpaid vet with a shorter contract or three guys with very limited upside on long contracts, I'm taking the former. Honestly, though, if those are the two packages available, I'm not trading him.

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Rich reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 15:01
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=milicda01&y1=2011&p2=hawessp01&y2=2011

I was open to considering this until I saw that. Hasn't Darko received some credit this year too?

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tk76 reply to Rich on Apr 25 at 15:15
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Haha. yeah, my point being the Sxiers need a starting and a bench center next year. I figure any legit sized center who can rebound and block shots for 20+ min/g will cost you more than 3M per year. And Darko gives you that and is in his prime (whatever "prime" is for a fungible big.) And I'd take that over the growing pains that comes with another 22 year old big.

Hawes is lousy and dark is lousy. But Darko is a much more imposing physical presence. IMO the rebounding numbers for them this year are a bit of an aberration. If Hawes played next to Love he would be grabbing a ton less boards. Looking at their careers Hawes is an average rebounder who can't protect the rim. darko is an average rebounder who can protect the rim.

Ugh. I'd want no part of that. I don't see any upside at all to those three guys.

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tk76 reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 15:18
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Looking at teams that might have interest in Iguodala... teams that can either plug him in as an elite glue guy or lottery teams with young stars who they want to appease like Griffin, Curry or Love...

Can you think of a viable trade that you would be onboard with. A trade that is not built around draft picks?

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tk76 reply to tk76 on Apr 25 at 15:21
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Kaman for Iggy jumps out. But Kaman would be over-valued due to his short contract. So its more of a cost cutting move- which I don't like given Brand is still on the books and they need talent more than cost savings.

I can't find a deal with GSW. They won't give up Curry. i don't want Biedrins or Ellis. Probably Udoh could be part of a 3 team deal, but otherwise the rosters don't make for good trades.

sign and trade involving DeAndre Jordan could work.

Jesus, your Minny trade is just beyond terrible.

WS48 numbers for the three guys the Sixers would get from Minny:

Darko: .007
Wes Johnson: .030
Flynn: -.064

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tk76 reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 15:54
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1. I'm trying to be a realist looking at contracts, percieved value, gate concerns etc.

2. Wes Jonson was the #4 pick and Collins loved him. We bash him and defend Turner because one is a Sixer and the other is a T-Wolve. Any other reason?

3. The trade is 90% about Wes Johnson and breaking up Iguodala's salary for some minor assets who could be used or traded easily.

Two other factors going against Johnson, since you asked:

1. He's older than Turner
2. He produced less than Turner in their rookie seasons.

I'm not saying either factor means he'll never reach his potential, but I think both mean he's not exactly a blue chip talent with a ton of upside. And I honestly can't understand why you think Darko and Flynn are somehow assets.


There's a couple dream trades out there with the Clippers, right? Jordan, Aminu, etc.

I've been a Jordan supporter- but I'm really wary to give the guy a big contract that replaces Iggy's. And no real reason to have Thad and Aminu on the same team.

But Iggy would be a tremendous fit for the Clippers. But I see them more likely resigning Jordan and maybe trading away kaman. Although with only 1 year left they could just let Kaman expire and go after a FA.

Obtaining Jordan by giving up Iguodala just robs peter to pay paul.

The sixers must add without subtracting Holiday, Brand, Iguodala (pretty much everyone else to me is fungible type players that are easier to replace).

If you have to give up one of those three to get a guy like Jordan - you haven't gotten bette r- you've just created a new hole (and Evan Turner hasn't come close to showing he's going to fill it - on either end of the court)

This isn't necessarily true. Whether or not you make this trade depends on two things:

1) How much you'd have to pay Jordan. If his contract is equal to Iguodala's on a yearly basis, then no, you don't make it. You also have to be convinced Jordan will be an impact starter to give him anywhere near $10M/year.

2) Whether you believe Turner will be capable of filling Iguodala's shoes eventually. It doesn't have to be this upcoming season, but if you think he can step into that role at somewhere near Iguodala's level within say two or three seasons, then the trade might make sense.

Essentially, what you have to ask yourself is whether Jordan + Turner when they're both 24 or Iguodala at 29 + Hawes or whatever center you can get to replace Hawes will be better in two years.

I like Jordan and think he'd be a really good fit here for a lot of different reasons, but I'm not 100% sold on locking into a core of Jrue, (meeks?), Turner, PF? and Jordan.

On the other hand, if they're bound and determined to trade Iguodala, they could do a whole lot worse. Of course, I think the Clippers are much more likely to just let Jordan walk, or if they do sign-and-trade him, they're not going to be taking a big money contract back in the deal.

I don't think Evan Turner has shown enough yet to believe he'll fill Iguodala's shoes. I"m not ready to give up on him like some but there isn't enough evidence to me to give up on Iguodala yet.

If you make a trade like that - gotta find a taker for brand - it's just a waste of his talent and the sixers cap space if you give up Iguodala

Not without a #1 PICK. Do not like Flynn a bit. What a mistake drafting him. No perimeter game. Collins would not play him.

Agreed - Wes Johnson is not a top 3 player on a contending NBA team. He is four years older than Jrue also!

Video: Thaddeus Young Monday on coming to Turner's defense in Sunday's skirmish and Sixers not being satisfied with one win:

http://ow.ly/4GE65

Video: Turner Monday on taking advantage of playing at the end of Game 4 and the Sixers' confidence:

http://ow.ly/4GEnb

Video: Collins on the Heat wanting to end series Sunday, the Celtics becoming Sixers fans and Battie's Game 4 contributions:

http://ow.ly/4GEEK

Blog: Collins: 'I want us to want more':

http://ow.ly/4GFkH

(with Collins video)

great post.
I was surprised to see that from the get-go the Sixers were doubling hard on the ball handler and then daring anyone but the big 3 to score. And unsurprisingly, they didn't. I don't expect Bibby, Chalmers and Ilgauskas to have as poor a game as yesterday but it will be interesting in game 5 to see how that plays out.

Video: Brand on not being too excited about one win, the Sixers' 'uphill battle' and Turner's performance:

http://ow.ly/4GFEb

Some good Sixers props in the HEAT check chat today:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/38079

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Tom Moore on Apr 25 at 18:36
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Blog: Sixers young players getting past being starstruck:

http://ow.ly/4GKgU

Ive never placed a bet before, but if bet $10 bucks on the Sixer for game 5, how much would I win

I am watching the Grizzlies destroy San Antonio.
Personally, priority #1 this off-season is to trade for OJ Mayo. They clearly have no space for him behind Gay. And they only need cap relief. He is the most gettable young player with potential that's out there. Was almost traded for scraps to Indiana. so we know the asking price is low.
JR Smith is gonna be re-signed.
This could be out potential SG of the future. I can't believe that no one is screaming for that guy here. Good size, Can shoot, plays some defense, athletic and decent passer.

How are the Sixers going to offer cap relief, and I don't really think another wing who really isn't a threat from deep should be anyone's number one priority.

I mean, he's not terrible, but I don't think he'd move the needle much and he'd just add to the log jam at the one, two and three.

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Tray reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 22:29
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No space behind Gay? They play different positions. I could see your saying that Tony Allen's such a great defender that they have no room for Mayo in their starting rotation, but Mayo and Gay - one's a 6'8 small forward, the other's a 6'4, 6'5 2 guard.

He didn't lose his starting spot to Allen, he lost it to Sam Young, prior to his suspension.

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Tray reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 22:39
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That's true, but Allen's pretty good and Young isn't. And these days, Young starts at the 3.

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jkay reply to Tray on Apr 25 at 22:43
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I assumed Memphis plays their 2 and 3 interchangeably the same way Iguodala, Korver, Young, Carney was a logjam.

I figured they'd trot out lineups of Conley, Gay, Allen/Battier, Randolph & Gasol/Arthur.

I'm surprised it was Sam Young though.

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jkay reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 22:47
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meaning you have so many at one position, if you don't go small, certain guys can't be on the floor at the same time.

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jkay reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 22:54
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this probably takes the cake for my most confusing post.

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Tray reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 23:16
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Well, you can play Mayo and Gay at the same time, because they did it for 82 games last season. And even with Allen, they can start Allen and Mayo can be their sixth man. As for Young, he'd be expendable with Gay healthy.

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jkay reply to Tray on Apr 25 at 23:32
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yeah that was the lineup they were using.
to them Sam Young ~ OJ Mayo
so then is it off the court issues, the suspension?
His contract will save them only $5M.
I'd like to take a chance on him the way we picked up Meeks.

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eddies' heady's reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 22:47
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I mentioned earlier on here this year that we should get him while shipping out Turner. And I think Jason replied "figures you'd want Mayo over Turner", sarcastically I think. Not sure why.

if Mayo was that good I doubt Memphis woulda tried to ship him out at the trade deadline. What was it, McRoberts and a first?

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eddies' heady's reply to Alvin on Apr 26 at 10:17
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Well if he was fetching a first that was, at that time, expected to be in the lottery, I'd say someone sees him as some kind of good.

Remember it's this lottery. And likely would have been the 12th or 13th pick. And I'm not sure if the pick wasn't protected.

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Joe reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 23:45
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I'm not sure I understand why OJ Mayo would be a guy to make a big play at.

Is he an obvious upgrade over Jrue, Meeks, Lou, Turner, or Iguodala?

Arguments could be made I suppose, but I think one could easily put forth an argument that Mayo was the worst of this crowd this past year. Mayo was better the year before and I don't think it is cut and dry, but I'd rather them make it a priority to get a big.

with a first round exit, what does Buford, the Spurs GM (a man I know so little about) do?
Are you still selling the retooling thing or blowing it up?

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Stan reply to jkay on Apr 25 at 23:35
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They already invested 123 million in Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson. So if they let Duncan go, they will have to find takers for those 3 players. I say they should re-tool, they have no other option.


Whatever happened to that Brazilian guy who was supposed to be a stud?

Would you trade Nocioni and a first round pick for Manu?

Would NYK trade Billups, Fields, Douglas and a 1st for Tony Parker?

Heh, are the Knicks trying to filed a 3-man roster :)

Anyone in the world would trade Nocioni and a #1 for Manu, no way the Spurs would do it.

My guess is that Duncan is a Spur for life.

Looks like the Brandon Roy resurgence was probably short lived. 2/7 for 5 points, -18 in 26 minutes. I wonder if he's crying tonight.

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Joe reply to Brian on Apr 25 at 23:49
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Ouch, ruthless.

In other news, Ty Lawson continues his consistently impressive production on offense.


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