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There are two main aspects that these stats show IMO:
- It's extremely difficult to project young players because it's close to impossible to project how much they will improve if at all.
- Taking into consideration how a certain player has been utilized by a previous coach is crucial.

All of the major differences fall in these categories.

I was asleep during the twriple OT gaem. Westbrook took 33 shots (13 more than Durant) and had only 5 assists in over 50 minutes.

Do those stats accurately reflect selfish play?

They may reflect Tony Allen guarding Durant morso than selfish play.

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mike reply to tk76 on May 10 at 8:56
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westbrook definitely took a lot of bad shots early in the shot clock last night. he made some big shots too though.

Yes and No. Westbrook is not a true PG, that's not a secret. I don't think he's selfish, he is just not good enough of a passer. As a result he uses way too many possessions because he is afraid to make a bad pass. Think a less selfish, but significantly more able version of Lou. Additionally the Grizzlies have a terrific defensive tandem that can guard Durant and deny him from getting the ball in Allen and Battier. Westbrook is the guy who is going to have top step up and win this series for them IMO (along with better defense from both Perkins and Ibaka who have been disappointing so far).

I watched basically the whole second half and all three overtimes. OKC's offense was really bad. Basically if they weren't in transition it was a ton of Westbrook dribbling the air out of the ball and then either driving or jacking up terrible jumpers. If not for Westbrook and Durant getting to the line (rightly or wrongly) they get blown out of that game. Harden is actually probably a better creator than Westbrook, but they mostly just run isos for him as well. In the third overtime, they started running isos for Durant with Battier on him and Durant won that battle.

Huge mistake by MEM's head coach in the first overtime, I think. Conley fouled out on their one foul to give when they had to give it, he put OJ Mayo in for Conley, knowing they had to foul immediately, and put him on Westbrook. Problem was, Mayo had five fouls as well. So OKC got the ball to Westbrook right away, Mayo had to foul him, and he fouled out too.

Agreed - horrible, horrible coaching.

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eddies' heady's reply to Brian on May 10 at 11:12
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I couldn't believe that same sequence either. Thought for sure he would put Vasquez in for the given foul. Mayo had made a couple of big baskets up to that point too including a couple of three's. Don't see how Hollins or more importantly his assisitants missed that.

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Rich reply to Brian on May 10 at 15:18
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Totally agree, awful coaching. Vazquez did make the three to tie it though and made a couple more big shots, so it's hard to say he was bad. Still, what a brain cramp by Hollins and more importantly his assistants.

I read this trade scenario somewhere and i wanted to get your thoughts on it:

Iguodala for Deng and Asik (Speights or Brackins are possible throw ins)

I'm torn on this mostly because i'm not a huge fan of Deng and Iguodala is a better player, but this is an interesting trade IMO. The Bulls could use Iguodala as a point forward, considering Rose is not a pass first PG anyway. And Deng and Asik are pretty good fits for the Sixers.

I guess the question is whether Asik moves the needle significantly in the frontcourt, because Iguodala to Deng is a dropoff in overall game.

Iguodala to Deng is a dropoff in overall game.

The dropoff (as I see it) is not one of ability or talent but one of injury. If Deng is healthy I don't think the 'dropoff' really is that much and Asik is an improvement.

I just don't see the Bulls making that move. Deng was healthy this year and very important to them as a team, and reports are that they love Asik quite a bit for his defensive effort which is a focus of Thibodeau, why would they want to take the massive defensive step back in giving up Asik for Speights (defensively weak) and Bracking (big question mark)

I don't see it as a good trade for the Bulls

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Fred reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 10:51
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If Chicago loses to the Hawks they may be more willing to make that trade. He is a better match up against Lebron or Joe Johnson.

Well that's a good point (though I don't see Chicago losing to the Hawks). A lot like Brand, this is the first healthy year Deng has had in a while, so I think his value might also be over stated temporarily. It should be known that the two players I wanted the sixers to pick in the draft were Iguodala and Deng - pretty much tied, though I expected neither to be available at 9 (thank you Toronto)

Talentwise and person wise I think Luol Deng is outstanding, when he's healthy.

(WHen Healthy of course) the overall comparison between Deng and Iguodala comes out pretty close, though Deng has missed almost a full season worth of games in his career.

http://bkref.com/tiny/BfLn8

Deng is also two years younger than Iguodala according to basketball reference

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raro reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 11:28
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Would it be reasonable to expect Deng to age 'better' than Iguodala? In the sense that Iguodala relies more on his athleticism and Deng actually has a half court, midrange game?

Forgot to add references in the post above. I got WP numbers here (nerdnumbers.com).

Win shares from b-r.com.

I thought Ibaka and Perkins were good defenders and rebounders. According to the box score they got out rebounded 10-37 and outscored 11-60. This also makes me change my opinion about Randolph. He is a lot better than I thought he was.

The Thunder were 61.3% on the defensive glass last night, the Grizz were 65.9%.

The grizz were 'better' but neither team demonstrated particularly good defensive rebounding last night in my opinion.

Brian, really interesting analysis. It's notable that both measures overpredicted the number of Sixer wins. So they were either unlucky overall or poor in close games (likely both). Their Pythagorean expected wins (based solely on point differential) was 45, also in the same vicinity.

That is a crazy trade. I guess both teams get better with that trade, but something about it feels just wrong. And yeah, neither team would agree to this IMO.

I started with Jrue and Westbrook (which straight up doesn't work) because after watching last night and listening this morning it seems that Westbrook might be the 'wrong' type of point guard for the Thunder, he's a scorer who plays the point, whereas the Thunder need a point who can score when needed to. (Others might not see a difference in the two - I do).

A lot of sixer talk this off season has talked about how Jrue needs to score more and a lot of talk this playoffs is about how Westbrook maybe tries to score too much, so a swap of styles made sense to me.

As for Iguodala being in the trade, well I had to expand the deal and thought getting Harden would be nice as well. Midget man is only there to make the numbers work - the Thunder have a lot of friendly (rookie) deals - only other 'tradeable' deal is probably collison - and his contract is long :)

It's not a deal that the Thunder would make (I bet the sixers would) but if Presti is the GM everyone claims and sees the writing on the wall regarding a westbrook/durant title sooner rather than later, it's the kind of trade I think helps both teams.

No idea how Turner works with Westbrook and Harden but it gets that 'scoring' player everyone seems to want jrue to become. Either Jrue becomes a more 'scoring' point guard, or you obtain one.

Yeah i agree about most of the above. The really mazing stuff is this really works perfectly for both teams in terms of what they are left with. Jrue/Iguodala/Durant has a chance of becoming the most dominant backcourt in history IMO. They are a perfect fit next to eachother, all of them. And Westbrook/Harden/Turner is a great mixture as well. They too are pretty good fits i guess. The thing is, it's difficult to pull of a trade where one team gives out the best player (without the trade being a salary dump) and another team gives out the better package that is actually a terrific fit for the other team.

As for me, I love Jrue and hate the style of play Westbrook plays (even though he is really really good), so even though i am biased i don't like the trade.

I don't like scoring first, creating second point guards either. They just don't ring right to me, but my concern was making the sixers better in a fair trade (I don't usually try and create ridiculous lopsided trades on trade machines, if I can't make it work in a way I think is fair I usually give up the ghost, like when trying to get JJ Redick on the sixers from the magic - damn near impossible while he's a BYC player:).

I'm not sure who the best player / better package is your talking about, and maybe that's a good thing. Westbrook is the bigger name, hell Harden is a bigger name, but I think on the court wise, even though different STYLES of play that it's a fair trade (Nate Robinson would be told he'd never play for the sixers and either agree to a back up or 2 years of deactivation)

Sorry, not back up but buy out, a very team friendly buy out.

One more though that occurs to me after I posted (damn you tk). I think this is the TYPE of trade (not the specifics per se) where the sixers will get the best value for Iguodala. Trading Iguodala to a team with 'many' good young pieces but still isn't 'there' just yet, where an Iguodala fills a need and a veteraness that other teams don't have. A team like OKC, Chicago, maybe even Memphis, that feels it's close and needs to add a quality piece to get over the hump with a fan base that shows up when they win (hell one of the most amazing things in these playoffs is memphis selling out) and an ownership that has (recently) shown willingness to spend money.

I think this trade while a little out there makes sense for both teams in terms of direction the franchises are headed (plus OKC doesn't have to deal with the westbrook contract extension headache). I realize on the surface it seems crazy just because of name recognition but I think on the court it makes sense for both teams.

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Marty reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 11:59
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I actually put together a very similar trade, except I brought back Sefolosha instead of Harden. I think there'd be much less of a drop-off defensively with him, and he's more of a 3 than Harden or Turner. I actually love this trade. I believe Jrue will be a very good player, but I think Westbrook is an alpha dog and I think he's actually good enough to be your best player (if you have a legitimate 4 or 5 down low). Can only see this happening if OKC somehow drops this series (and Westbrook continues shooting 30+ times a game).

I think even if OKC wins this series and loses to the Mavericks (depending on HOW they lose) you might see a Oklahoma City shake up. Westbrook is coming up to extension time isn't he? They have to be sure that it's a workable duo before giving him a fat contract. If they feel it isn't, you strike early rather than late (in my opinion)

I added Harden due to deal size and the fact that I think of him as a 2 which gives the 3 to Turner.

I love this deal, but I have my doubts about the Thunder including Harden in the deal. I see the Thunder including Collison in the deal which means the 76ers would have to add some filler to make it work under the current CBA.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=44xrakp

Actually much simpler deal - I just don't like it at all.

I agree taking Harden out of the deal lessens the appeal for the 76ers, but even the deal involving Collison would be a bold move for the 76ers. Its going to take a bold like going after a Westbrook to put the franchise on a championship track. Westbrook has the star appeal the franchise needs. He definitely has the star mentality, seeing if he can do it without Durant next to him is the million dollar question. I believe its a chance worth taking.

While it might be bold, I don't think it makes the sixers that much better, plus Collisons contract length is actually LONGER than Iguodalas right now.

The Thunder get better overall talent in the deal and better contract situations. It's a much more tilted deal towards the Thunder. Bold still has to be smart and good. I wouldn't like the collison deal even if it got westbrook cause I don't think collison is a championship calibre STARTER in the NBA.

Now, if it's ibaka and westbrook - i'm ok with that more so than collison

I agree Collison is a big off the bench on a title team, definitely not a starter. The Thunder did smartly structure his contract in that his salary declines each year with this year being the highest level.

I believe you need a star player to have any chance at winning a title and the 76ers need a star player, which I think Westbrook is on the path to becoming, the question is would you overpay to get him on the 76ers? I would.

No, I wouldn't, cause you need more than one star player, and when you over pay just to get one star player you still are in a hole. The sixers take back less talent AND the longest of the contracts in a holiday/Iguodala for Westbrook/Collison contract.

i don't think westbrook is THAT good to be worth THAT much. The trade I proposed includes Harden who I believe is also a solid nba starter. I feel my trade is more balanced on all aspects of the deal whereas the collison deal is tilted squarely in favor of the Thunder on and off the court

Without Harden, the trade makes zero sense for the Sixers. they will be essentially the same team they are now.

Scratch that, they will be worse than they are now, both short and long term...

I'm not sure if it's worse or treading water, I know it's not as equally beneficial to both teams as the first trade (in my opinion)

The question you have to ask yourself (in my mind) is do the Durant/Westbrook games mesh enough to win an NBA title?

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Shareef Abdur Rahim reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 13:47
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The only problem is that Collison's 13.2 million contract refers to this year. Next year his salary would be around 3.2 million

Yes, I acknowledged that later on. I knew his contract was different I didn't realize it was so different.

Though the on the court issues are still imbalanced towards the Thunder in a collison/westbrook deal in my opinion.

Actually the Collison contract pays him $13.3 million this year, but $3.3 million next and declines until $2.2 the last year of the contract. So the off the court winner moves toward the 76ers.

I realized it was team friendly, I didn't realize THAT cap friendly, but I was more concerned with length - it's longer than Iguodalas contract.

So, even if the money shifts in favor of the sixers (and you're right, it does) - the talent I believe is still imbalanced in favor of the Thunder, a lot. The sixers don't need another back up center, well, they do, but they don't need to trade Jrue and Andre to get him. They have bigger needs, and I agree with Xsago, the Collison deal is treading water long term, but it's awesome for the thunder :)

Totally agree the Collison deal is far from ideal for the 76ers. It will be interesting to see what the Thunder get for Westbrook when they do trade him because I strongly believe it is a when not an if.

I believe it will be a when, not an if, like you, but I wonder if they'll strike now or tough it out one more season. I think moments like this are defining. Make the trade now or wait another year, if it still doesn't mesh, you don't have as much bargaining strength as you do now.

The question the franchise has to ask themselves and Russell Westbrook is can he handle being the 'second fiddle' and being a point guard more standard or does he have to be a derrick rose type. That won't work with Durant.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 17:19
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I think Westbrook and Durant work together. I mean, can one seriously argue that Durant isn't getting the ball enough when he's scoring 31 a game in the playoffs on 21 FGA/11 FTA per game? They have one really good scorer besides Durant. James Harden is not a second option. They need a lot of production from Westbrook to win; they don't win last night without his 40. Westbrook's better at getting free of his defender than Durant; there are times in a game where he's the guy they're better off going to. Unless you think Durant's capable of upping his usage to the point where he's scoring 35 a night, I don't know where you'd find production to fill the Westbrook-to-Jrue dropoff, and I don't know why you'd think they'd be better off with a more traditional point. It's not like Durant is this underutilized scorer. He's already led the league in scoring the last two years.

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jsmoove reply to Tray on May 10 at 17:45
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Could not agree more with this. This Westbrook being an `alpha dog` and `not wanting playing second fiddle` is being blown way out of proportion. It's not like he's constantly not doing what the coach is, in fact, asking or calling for him to do, but more importantly, what the team needs as far as offensive production. I don't see the Thunder trading a perennial all-star at one of the most important postions on the court in today's game.

The coach told him to take 30+ shots and only get 5 assists and freeze out kevin durant for 9.5 minutes of last nights game?

He should be fired if that was his game plan.

Kevin Durant is the primary scoring option on that team or brooks should be fired

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Tyrone Hill on May 10 at 13:50
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A Deron Williams- Westbrook trade would benefit both teams. Not sure how the trade could go down

Maybe, but there's an age difference there that's bigger than Jrue/Durant, and Jrue's still much cheaper than Williams and not about due an extension.

I also think Jersey believes they can add to Deron Williams (Dwight Howard) and maybe Westbrook isn't a draw as much as Williams for Dwight Howard.

Additionally, I was only worried about sixer relevant trades :)

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Greg Ostertag reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 14:03
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NJ is delusional if they think they can obtain Howard as a FA. There is a HUGE step down from playing in Orlando to playing in NJ.

If NY offered Melo+Feilds for Howard, would ORL take it? Is it a better return than Bynum?

That's a matter of opinion for a couple reasons

1. They're moving to Brookly
2. New Jersey is hella closer to New York which is a much more fun city (in my opinion) than the disney world influenced Orlando.

New York isn't going to offer Melo for Howard after getting him...that would be insane

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rswknight reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 18:21
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One factor I heard is that Howard doesn't like the idea of playing in Cold-Weather Cities. Not sure how true that might be for every scenario, but that could be a factor

Well, if that's true, that rules out about 1/2 the NBA teams - and it makes him a wuss if he can't handle a little cold weather.

Quick questions for right now or for a separate post (tomorrow.)

Look at all of the teams in the NBA.

1. Which ones would be most helped by adding Iguodala in place of either their SG or SF?

I think that Iguodala is most useful on either a very bad team (that use his point skills and trigger their break) or a very good team that has a ton of great shooters/scorers but need an elite glue guy/defender. But how many teams is that?

Well - I disagree that Iguodala is good on a very bad team...they're too far from competing, so then you look at the teams that are 'almost' there (in my opinion)

Oklahoma City, Memphis, and I think Chicago are the teams that jump out at me.

I don't think Atlanta is 'almost' there, but others might.

I don't think he'd 'need' to score on those teams either.

great idea. I'm going to make this into a post to go up late tonight/early tomorrow.

And in terms of making a team better it could mean:

More wins
better playoff team
better match-up against an elite team blocking them
better environment to develop players
better finances
better gate

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Jumaine Jones reply to tk76 on May 10 at 14:51
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Bulls
Clippers
Hawks
Magic
Mavericks
Hornets
Thunder

I think adding Iguodala to any of these teams (without subtracting anyone) would make them a contender

Watching the Lakers this year, I really think they could have used his athleticism and ability to create shots for others. Many times they would control the defensive glass and have zero players on the fastbreak. That's why I suggested a trade centered around Iguodala and Bynum, if the Lakers were really serious about challenging for the title again with Kobe. (But nobody in their right mind would risk breaking up a title team because of only a possibility of what happened this year -- it had to happen first.)

Similar thought for the Spurs and Mavs, who have enough shooters on their teams but not enough athleticism (though the Mavs are doing fine thus far).

Who does he replace in the starting line up thoug, artest or kobe?

Replaces Artest. Lineup would be Fisher, Kobe, Iguodala, Odom, Gasol. I think that lineup would have been more competitive with the Mavs, but given Gasol's struggles, it may not have made a difference ...

1st team All-Defensive selection not-withstanding, I imagine that a Kobe/Iggy defensive tandem could have been devastating like MJ/Pippen if only Kobe still had his legs like he once did. That tandem at their peak could have probably brought any offensive flow to a halt by pressuring the wings.

Very good idea. Of the top of my head i would say the following (from worst to best):

Nets
Clippers
Warriors
Jazz
Knicks
Rockets
Hawks
Hornets
Lakers
Spurs


Might be interested:

Magic
Nuggets
Thunder
Mavericks
Bulls


Bare in mind there may be more, i haven't thought this through.

Here's something weird.

I'm driving to get my lunch and the LA Sports Radio that is Lakers heavy talks about how they're going to air Derek Fisher's exit interview in a few minutes.

If an exit interview is with the local media - it's no wonder Iguodala would have skipped it.

Jrue, Thad and most of the guys gave exit interviews to the press on their team exit interview day. I'm guessing Fisher is doing the same thing.

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Rich reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 16:32
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I believe the interview that Iguodala missed was with Thorn, Stefanski and Collins. He actually talked to the local media that day:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK_J6CzxYik&feature=player_embedded#at=12

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eddies' heady's reply to GoSixers on May 10 at 23:13
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You'd excuse him at anything. I bet if he farted beside you you'd raise your hand and say you did it. hehe

To me, Iguodala is a very good fit for the Knicks. He wouldn't have to score and would add high-level man-to-man defense they desperately need. The problem is what would the Sixers get in return -- the Knicks have two huge salaries, Billups with one more year and a bunch of lower-money guys. Would have to involve a third -- and possibly a fourth -- team.

Tom, I wonder if the Sixers would be like most teams, and only trade their high profile guy to the other conference?

If their was a perfect return it would be Ibaka... but that ain't happening.

They probably are - i mean FIVE PERCENT OF THE GAMES IGUODALA WOULD PLAY AGAINST THE SIXERS EVERY YEAR

FIVE PERCENT

That is huge

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Tom Moore reply to tk76 on May 10 at 17:32
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Talked to Thorn again today. He said, "We're actively looking to increase our talent pool."

Don't think Thorn would have any problem trading him within the conference if he can get a big man or a scorer in return.

Nice follow up.

One thing I would recommend maybe would be to ditch the predictions in terms of minutes and just use the actual minutes with the predicted WS48 and WP48. This shows the metric isn't being bogged down with personal predictions by the author. It won't effect things much.

Thad and Brand basically busted any statistical predictions for this team I think. Great year.

Good idea, here are the numbers using last year's WS48 and WP48 with this year's actual minutes:

Player - projected WS - projected WP


Andre Iguodala 5.1951875 11.213375
Louis Williams 4.731458333 5.750541667
Jrue Holiday 1.934 3.2031875
Willie Green 0 0
Jodie Meeks 5.326833333 5.498666667
Marreese Speights 1.544458333 0.137625
Elton Brand 4.272020833 -0.409645833
Thaddeus Young 2.090520833 -1.334375
Jason Smith 0 0
Jason Kapono 0.0531875 -0.2566875
Spencer Hawes 1.93275 -0.21475
Andres Nocioni 0.853416667 -1.609854167
Evan Turner 3.7811875 4.717125
Tony Battie -0.109958333 -1.759333333

Total projected WS: 31.605
Total projected WP: 24.936

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Tom Moore on May 10 at 17:34
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Thorn: Iguodala all-defensive honor was 'overdue':

http://ow.ly/4RBdS

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johnrosz on May 10 at 17:44
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Just out of curiosity, how many of you guys would absolutely freak out/vomit/become enraged if they actually swapped Dre for Rudy Gay?

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Tom Moore reply to johnrosz on May 10 at 18:12
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It'd be ironic because the two became very good friends while playing for the USA team last summer. Iguodala told me they talked about possibly playing together on an NBA team one day, though they knew it'd be a long shot.

Especially since they play the same position?

It'd be interesting for someone to come up with an acceptable trade of Iguodala to memphis that doesn't involve rudy gay :)

I actually like the trade. I don't see Memphis doing it though. The already have Tony Allen to concentrate on defense, and Gay is stronger offensively than Iggy, so it doesn't seem to make sense for them. The only rationale on their end is Iggy expires 2 years earlier, I guess. Doubt they'd do that, I think this is just made up by Fagan.

He's a stronger scorer than Iguodala, but if you need playmaking it really isn't close between the two.

You really overrate playmaking imo. It's a skill that is easy to get elsewhere, I really think between scoring efficiently and playmaking that it's harder to find an efficient wing scorer that can score 20 ppg.

It's not really about overrating or underrating playmaking, it's about team needs. OKC doesn't really get it from their PG, so they need it elsewhere. Orlando is another team that fits that mold. Most teams w/out a traditional PG need to get it elsewhere. The Sixers aren't one of those teams, IMO. Memphis, on the other hand, is a team that seems to have a lot of guys who are black holes on offense, so adding a guy like Iguodala who can set up Randolph and Gasol could be more valuable than a guy who just takes possessions away from them to score less efficiently than they do.

I gotcha, interesting point. Well this would be a reason for Memphis to be interested in Iggy. Maybe Kate's onto something! I'd be pretty excited about Jrue/Turner/Gay/Brand/Hawes :) ... I really think that's a potential 50-win team.

They don't need playmaking from Gay if he is starting next to Jrue and Turner. The need shotmaking and defense.

I think Iguodla is the better player of the two... but Gay's age and skillset make him the better fit.

But Gay's contract is really a killer. Memphis would need to take back a bad contract to make it work, and I'm not sure who that would be. Lou? His contract ain't that bad.

Agreed Gay doesn't need to be a playmaker for the Sixers. The point here is that Gay isn't necessarily a better offensive fit in Memphis than Iguodala would be. Iguodala's skill set is probably better for the pieces left in Memphis, much like Gay's black hole offense would probably be a better fit in Philly.

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Ai-Love_Hate on May 10 at 20:58
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i might like a trade for gay because he's about 2-3 years younger and shoots the 3 better and was alot more efficient this past season. Also he has over a steal and a block per game which is pretty good.

I wonder if he will sustain the improved 3pt shooting and FG%. It's hard to know.

For example Lou at age 23 shot career bests at 47% and 34% from 3pt. The his FG% regressed back to his earlier norms at age 24.

Gay shot career best at 47% and 40%. The FG% was not a huge bump. But whose to say that Gay's 3pt% does not revert to his career norm of 35%. His efficiency would take a hit.

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Ai-Love_Hate reply to tk76 on May 10 at 22:07
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well he would be getting alot of open looks with jrue and turner setting him up for catch and shoot so i think that he will keep his 3's around 37%.

His 15M/16.5M/18M/19M does not worry you a little bit?

I'd be 100% with you if you were saying he'd get a lot of open looks with Jrue and Iguodala setting him up. Turner hasn't shown that he's going to even be close to Iguodala in terms of setting teammates up, yet.

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deepsixersuede on May 10 at 23:17
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I think Sacramento is a perfect fit because than they can play Thornton and Evans together with Iggy as a point forward. What do I want in return? Their #1 pick, currently #5 [Bismack], a shooter[Casspi], and caproom. Iggy just solved 3 major needs for his former team.

Hey Brian quick question that I'm just a little curious about: Is this blog still affiliated with a network? Also, did you create the network?

Yes and yes.


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