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Evan Turner: Prediction vs. Performance

Potential, I like his game, hope he can develop a jumper, i cant take another 5-10 years of Iggy like Jumpshot/bricks ... I'll pray tonight

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Court_visioN on May 18 at 1:52
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For all his faults, Turner has more moves to get himself an open look than anybody else on the team. When they don't work, though, his shot usually gets swatted.

Although yes his points, rebounds, and assists were far lower than your predictions, so were his minutes.

I think most importantly, his FG% and 3-point % were very close to your predictions. He just didn't take that many shots, for many reasons, but most significantly (in my opinion) because he played next to LouWill and Thad who took virtually all the shots.

I remember that behind-the-back dribble to lead the break, that was just incredible.

Turner's shot already improved as the season went along. His shooting % the last couple months of the season including the playoffs was about 48%, with a 3-point % of 70%.

I think Turner will come back next year with a much-improved jumpshot. I think the key is getting him more minutes (hopefully, in my opinion, at the expense of Meeks and LouWill). His defense, rebounding, and ball-handling is already there. He had some runs of several games without a single turnover. I like his game, I think he's going to be a great player.

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Charlie H reply to stoned81 on May 18 at 12:56
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I pretty much agree. I really don't like the way he holds his elbow out when he shoots. He's gotta change that. He should watch tapes of Andrew Toney.

It will be interesting to see if he does this shooting coach thing. hopefully he'll come back with an NBA Jam style "HE'S ON FIRE!!!"

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Emtmess on May 18 at 2:09
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I was and am not worried about Turner. By that I mean he is going to be agood player and a good compliment to Jrue.

I'm not worried about Turner. I'm worried about how Collins and ownership handles him. As much as we want to talk about lack of free throws and not using his inability to blow by guys the fact remains that he was never really allowed to do that all season long. Collins's message for Turner was simple defend, rebound and run off screens for jump shots. When you do that to a rookie who needs to play a completely different game to show what he can do he is going to struggle inevitably. I can't remember the last time such a high pick was so terribly misused. Now i don't argue that all that was for the greater good (because it was), but i think we should wait for two more seasons at least to be able to fully evaluate him. Hopefully he can show what he has on our team cause this may easily turn into a "get traded to prosper" situation.
I also believe his low TO rate is actually fake. His TO rate would've been quite high if he was given a chance to show his talent. That's actually one of the reason Collins never truly trusted him.
Another important thing is, his jump shot may look weird but is much better than Iguodala's since you've all been comparing it to him. I think developing a reliable jump shot, even to the three point line isn't out of the realm of possibility. Actually i think it's very likely that happens. His accuracy on his jumper isn't that bad. The weird thing is he is better off the dribble than with set fit IMO. And most of his shot attempts aren't off the dribble.

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johnrosz reply to Xsago on May 18 at 3:15
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I'm a bigger ET fan than most, but it's hard to blame the struggles on anyone but ET. There were times where he was given token minutes simply because he was the #2 pick, often out there when he was utter shit.

Would love to see him put in the work to become at least a marginally better athlete, whether it's explosion training or cutting some weight.

To be honest, I don't think he had any idea he would struggle as much as he did, he probably came into the league thinking his jumper was ok. All of a sudden it wasn't falling like it normally did, things weren't going his way, and he didn't really regain confidence in his game until the last handful of games/playoffs.

I'm rooting for him because a lot of people out there in the media crave the moment when they can label a guy a "bust" and have their "I told you so!" moment. Hopefully the doubters fuel his desire to become a better player, and I really hope those stories you hear about him being a complete gym rat are true, otherwise I don't see how he's going to live up to expectations.

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HendrikDB reply to johnrosz on May 18 at 4:49
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Shooting is mental for a huge part. The games he scored a lot of points he was really agressive, always attacking the basket. If Doug told him to do that the whole time I'm sure he would, but I felt like he didn't want to disrupt the team. In the playoffs where the sixers really gave it all he shined and that gives me a lot of hope. Playoffs are mental and he came through.

In the regular season I saw him walk to his spot most of the time, waiting for the ball to dish it to Lou, Brand, AI or Thad. He didn't have his mind set on attack he just passively distributed. That is a purely coaching thing, it was his job. Obviously his points are down if he has to play like that.

I totally agree with the fact that he took some minutes for granted, but he also just wanted to be part of the team which is im my book a good thing.

Evan is in a great spot. He has great handles, is a great defender, same with the rebounding, he's a great passer. I think he's elite in all categories except for that jumper. You can say whatever you want but there aren't a lot of rookies as polished as Turner. He has a complete game, he just needs that jumper fixed. Once that jumper falls he's a solid old-school triple threat...I haven't seen one of those in ages.

He's a baller, I pick ballers over athletes any day.

On an unrelated note i think we've gotten to the point in the NBA where people tend to forget that you need skills to win and athleticism is just a bonus. Nowadays everybody just wants to have a great athlete on their team, regardless of skills.

Just look at Nowitzki, Durant or even Randolph and Marc Gasol in the playoffs, or what happens when your skilled player is underperforming (Gasol, Lakers).

Yet a lot of people still want Biyombo ahead of Kanter in the draft...

how much of either prospect have you seen to make that statement ?

I haven't seen enough of either unfortunately (mostly YouTube stuff), but that's the grasp i am getting from everything that i've read so far on different sites. The little i've seen supports this IMO.

Anyway my comment wasn't really about Kanter and Biyombo it was about the perceived direction of the NBA, i just added that as a bonus (i may be wrong about them). I would very much like to here your take on both of them since they are both fairly unknown at this point (one didn't play competitive ball at all this season, the other one played for a second tier club in the spanish league).

I think you are minimizing what Biyambo did in his limited exposure. He played on a .500 team in the second best league in the world. Sort of like saying you dismiss any evaluation of Jrue because he played on a .500 team in the NBA instead of being on the Lakers.

The guy led the second best league in the world (prob at 18) in blocks, and nearly in rebounds per minute. He did this with nearly no prior elite experience. IMO that is more impressive than had he done the same at Duke or UNC this year. The ACB is a much higher level than the ACC.

I'm not saying the guy lacks bust potential. And his offensive game may never catch up to his raw tools and instincts. But I strongly disagree when people dismiss the Spanish ACB as just some "European League." Their are tons of leagues in Europe, ranging from low to high level. And the ACB is right at the top. So IMO performance in that league really means something.

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HendrikDB reply to tk76 on May 18 at 10:36
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European basketball is actually pretty close to the NBA. It's probably less athletic but it's way more skilled. Eastern Europe probably has the best basketball education in the world and Spain has done a lot to invest in any sport - football, basketball, volleyball, tennis you name it.

The thing with basketball in Europe is that it is more organised. Young people who are really skilled will get a faster good education by a great team. Like the L.A. Lakers would pick out a youngster of 14, have him play in youth leagues and by the time he is 16-17 they get the chance to play WITH the lakers. I see this is a huge advantage over the american system. Yeah, America has college, which is nothing else than the youth leagues in Europe (ages 18-19-20 juniors). If someone isn't ready yet for the absolute top there is always the possibility to rent him to another, lower team and let him mature there.

This leaves to my point: if someone ATHLETIC can perform in the spanish league, have no doubt he can do the same in the NBA. Skilled players on the other hand will have to bulk up because the NBA is all about atheletism now which I really detest. The reason why Nowitszki is good is that he's big. There are a LOT of Nowitszkis in Europe, most of them are just not big enough.

Sure it's similar, except for the fact that some of the rules are quite different.

The best in the world play in the NBA...period.

A lot of good NBA players would really struggle in the top Euro leagues and vice versa. The games are really different in terms of style. The NBA is set up so that elite isolation players and athletes get to really shine. You can get away with having some holes in your game.

While in Europe you can get away with not have elite athletes with tremendous size. You can be 6'9 and somewhat slow without being exposed. But if you take the best NBA players- who have both size, athleticism and skill, they would tear up the Euro-leagues. But the style of play might not give them the freedom to shine as much as they get in the NBA/NCAA/AAU.

Let's not forget things like the different lane size, 3 point line, and the fact that Sam Dalembert wouldn't goaltend as much

Sam would find a way to goaltend :)

In fact 90% of his goaltending would still be illegal under those rules.

The different rules impact the style of play in Europe quite a bit. But the biggest difference in terms of quality between the NBA and the best European leagues isn't really in talent or in general ability. It's actually in stamina. The best european teams can play as well as the best NBA teams if the season was with a "european schedule". European teams tend to use far larger rotations between different competitions, which means depth is important, they play twice less games during the course of the season and the actual games last less then NBA games. That's the biggest difference IMO.

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HendrikDB reply to Xsago on May 18 at 12:48
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You're absolutely right Xsago. And for GoSixers: The best american players play in the NBA no doubt, that isn't necessarily true for european players. There's a lot of diversity in Europe, to compare the NBA with Europe is impossible but I guess the best way to do so would be via the euroleague. Europe equals teameffort!

Finals of this year:
http://www.euroleague.net/main/results/showgame/report?phasetypecode=FF&gamecode=189&groupid=448&gamenumber=1

As you can probably guess I'm from europe, but don't get me wrong I love college basketball and NBA a lot more than european basketball.

Actually i am not trying to diminish the quality of the spanish league at all. Quite the contrary i appreciate european basketball much more than you guys, considering i am european. The thing with all european leagues though, including the spanish league is that they are very top heavy. And Biyombo played limited minutes on a mediocre (albeit up and coming) spanish team. I must admit that that has me worried a bit, although there have been success stories in the NBA that suggest that young players that come from less known (successful) european clubs (e.g. Batum).

Yeah, I was sort of surprised to hear you knocking a guy because he plays in Europe.

Isn't he still facing top competition by being in the ACB, even if his team is not the best in the league?

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bismack-Biyombo-5902/

Now I've always felt that DX over weights the Euroleague level of competition (and how performance projects into the NBA) but this is what they said about the league he played in.

But those who have been following Biyombo since he ascended to the senior roster of ACB team Fuenlabrada in early January were not caught off guard. He leads the most competitive league in the world outside the NBA in blocked shots and is amongst the league leaders in rebounding per 40 minutes and free attempts per 40.

"I haven't seen enough of either unfortunately (mostly YouTube stuff), but that's the grasp i am getting from everything that i've read so far"

I'm just not sure how you can have a strong enough opinion about two players you haven't seen to disregard people who favor one over the other.

To be fair, he's just trying to throw out a recent example. His point is valid. The NBA goes with the athlete over the skilled guy too often. When the Sixers passed on Paul Pierce that was the logic. And it seems to happen every year that a quality player drops because of lack of out of this world athleticism.

Of course you can argue the other side. Turner was drafted #2 despite concerns over athleticism. And their have been raw athletes like Josh Smith who where picked late (#18) and turned themselves into tremendous players when they added skill to their raw athleticism.

IMO your best chance at a "steal" is to find the raw athlete who also has the drive and ability to add to game. That is partly why Bismack is such a high riser. he has the athleticism- but he also seems to have the personality and mindset to be able to apply it and learn new skills quickly on the fly. As opposed to someone like Hassan Whiteside, who is less likely to tap into his potential.

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speeke reply to tk76 on May 18 at 14:11
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Landry Fields is a pretty good example of that from last year

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emtmess reply to Derek Bodner on May 18 at 16:45
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I would be fine with a couple of different players at 16. I was wondering Derek who would be on your top 5 or 10 players that you hope the sixers draft and the top 5 or 10 you do not want them to pick? Thanks.

Are we talking realistic, if we stay at 16 ?


Stay away:
Kawhi Leonard
Marcus Morris
Tristan Thompson
the Jimmer
Kenneth Faried

Target:
Motiejunas
Tobias Harris
Alec Burks
Chris Singleton
Markieff Morris

I'm not sure on Jordan Hamilton. I'm just not sure I see him as a productive NBA defender. I also need to see more of Nogueira.

I discounted guys like Kanter, Biyombo, Vesely, Valanciunas, Walker, Knight, etc. One of them may fall. I have a decent level of interest in all of those guys.

I listed Leonard in the "stay away", because I think right now he's overrated. That being said, at 16 I think he becomes a less risky pick, and probably would have interest at 16. I'd be scared to trade up and take him where he's currently projected, though.

I think that Jordan Williams is going to rise into the Sixers range if they stay at #16 - if he measures out well.

Thoughts?

Don't like him. Not unless he's much more explosive than he was, and actually has some semblance of a midrange game. I talked to people who went to his workouts in Vegas and didn't think he looked good (not much more explosive, fell in love with perimeter shot, wasn't hitting it, etc).

I need to be convinced in workouts that he's a different player than he was at Maryland, AND that this weight loss isn't temporary.

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Stuart reply to Derek Bodner on May 18 at 17:26
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What do you think of Klay Thompson? Would he be a good fit between Jrue and Evan (if we traded Iguodala for a big) or would you prefer Jrue-Evan-Singleton/Harris?

Haven't scouted him a ton. Will have to get back to you.

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Charlie H reply to Derek Bodner on May 18 at 17:30
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Wasn't Motiejunas rated top 5 two years ago? What happened? Being 17 is a real advantage in the draft I guess.

He was highly rated. He's still fairly highly rated (DX has him going 9th).

His rebounding is a huge reason for his drop in stock. And it's 100% legitimate. But, especially in this draft, he has legitimate offensive skills that I'm fairly confident in translating. He's a much better proposition at 16 than at 6, where his weaknesses become a bigger question mark. If he were Biyombo defensively he'd be the top pick in this draft.

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emtmess reply to Derek Bodner on May 18 at 21:26
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Thanks for the info Derek, it really helps out.

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AaronMcKie4MVP on May 18 at 6:15
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turner is unfortunate. Turner needs to get a LOT better to achieve any level of NBA success. Its rare that a player can make those types of strides. 2 examples....

Aaron McKie, who went from being the worst starting 2-guard since Marc Macon, to an exceptional role player. like avery johnson dreams of brooke lopez getting 10 boards, we should all dream that Turner can be the next aaron mckie.

the other is chauncey billups who went from bust/journeyman to an elite point guard who when swapped 1 for 1 with iverson , showed the world that playground tricks dont make winners in the nba. like an experiment by the Dukes, this guy turned a 500 team into an elite West powerhouse and simultaneously sunk the pistons

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deepsixersuede on May 18 at 7:36
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I can't get A.Miller out of my head when it comes to E. Turner; my biggest questions regarding him are what his best position will be and if he can become a #1 scoring option.

He does things that help a team win and he and Jrue can be a dynamite backcourt that swaps positions to take advantage of mismatches on any given night.

Finding a s.f. that doesn't need the ball, can bury a 3, and is a solid defender will maximize he and Jrue's skills but another year to test an Iggy/Jrue/Turner combo is sure not a bad thing either.

No doubt it has been a disappointing season for Turner. No doubt I will be hoping that the offseason working on the shooting will improve it much.

I have no doubt he will be very solid. He has a good brain for the game, an aggressiveness to rebound the ball and defend guys on the perimeter. I for one can't figure why he was so tentative on offense so often, at times I wished he would just chuck shots up Westbrook-style (okay maybe not really).

Brian I'm optimistic Turner can get those 15PPG next season with decent efficiency.

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mgfields on May 18 at 9:28
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I don't think Evan has a skill problem. The jumper will improve, as Stoned (GO HAWES!) pointed out it already has started to get better.

I also think he's underrated athletically. You can't rebound and play defense like Evan does without some ability.

I think Evan's rookie problems were mental, plain and simple.

I still think he could be a star. Look at this progression:

Freshman HS: JV
Sophmore HS: Bench varsity
Junior HS: Varsity Starter (ranked 450 nationally).
Senior HS: Top 100 high school player

Freshman OSU: Started season on bench. Ended season well, leading team during NIT run.
Sophmore OSU: 1st team Big Ten, led conference in scoring.
Junior OSU: National Player of the Year.

I totally agree with you mgfields seems turner is slightly "self conscience" lol if thats how you spell it, in every level of his basketball career its been the same pattern, a slow mediocre start, and he keeps climbing the ranks as the seasons go by, and he becomes comfortable with himself, and enviroment , *I know my spelling is off, bite me* lol , but yeah I think hes gonna be good, I like him and see potential. As far as iggy, i would rather not trade to move up in THIS draft, I would trade something else tho like a lou williams&16th to get a Biyombo, would love that, & if iggys got to move, I like the Kaman deal with the minny pick IF THEY CAN get it, which i think would be possibly imo

You pointed to two skills that he has which are elite. Rebounding and Handle. Those two things don't really improve that much, those are skills that are important to draft. At least shooting can get better and better. That, is what we should hang our hat on. Does he choose to be absolutely obsessed with knocking down the mid range jumper? If so, he'll be an amazing addition.

My criticism of Turner is a bit different than others. I want him to change his style of play even more than his skills/shooting.

I can't stand guys who play to get long midrange jumpers off the dribble. But right now that seems to be Turners game. So even if he improves his midrange jumper I would still not be a fan of that style of game... but don't take that as me not being a fan of Turner.

Andre Miller can't shoot, but his game is not designed to generate long jumpers. He creates and drives. If Turner becomes that type of player then I won't worry much about the jumper. But if continues to dribble in order to open himself for a 17 foot jumper, then it is a negative.

These are the types of shots I think are productive, in order of preference- and how Turner can/should use them:

1. Dunks/Open inside shots- Turner should look to create easy dunks for teammates.

2. Wide open 3's- probably will never be a huge part of ET's game, but he could become a threat at low volume.

3. Wide open midrange (left open or off of screens.) The open variety were part of his game last year because teams sort of dared him to shoot. But I don't see this as his future if he becomes a good player.

4. 5-12 foot shots created by penetration. Important, since players can create these for themselves. This must be a huge part of Turners game.

5. 16-20 foot jumpers off the dribble or isolation. The worst shot in basketball unless you are a freak like Dirk who can hit them over 50%. A lot of stars like Kobe/Melo have popularized these shots- but they are the bane of any offense. They represented 40% of Turners shots last year. And IMO, even if he develops his jumper, getting these looks should be a shot of last resort- but I worry they will be his featured look.

The positives I see in Turner far outweight his negatives. He shows toughness in his rebounding. He can handle the ball and find open players. He shows a scorers mentality.
I love that he uses his mid-range jumpshot has shown his willingness to post up. That is the biggest reason I like Turner.

The thing I see as his biggest negative is his athleticism. For every defender he gets a step on they always will be able to outleap him to contest his shot. He tends to overdribble into the defense and still seems lost at certain times during the game. The jumper has a tick in it but hopefully that correctable.

MOST of his negatives are corrected by playing time. ALL his positives get better with playing time. If he gets better, Turner and Jrue will give us two real players to talk about.

Thorn, Collins among Sixers management at Chicago predraft camp:

http://ow.ly/4Xsnc

IMO, Turner would have been more productive if he had been placed in the role that Lou Williams plays (go score the ball) or in the point-forward role (use your ballhandling ability to create in the 1/2 court) that Iguodala filled between knee flare-ups.

Having said that, he's accountable for his subpar rookie year. It won't take long for the "bust" label to be thrown around next year. To be an upper echelon player, he's got some work to do.

The bust label is already thrown around in many circles, some have been throwing it around all season

There are ignorant assholes everywhere.

Just because someone has access to the internet or sports talk radio doesn't give them credibility.

If he isn't a significant part of the rotation by mid-season I think that the bust label will be a fair assessment.

Thanks mgfields for making me more optimistic on Turner. No doubt, in the playoffs, he showed his potential. I think his role on this team for now, until he develops his jump shot, should be point guard for the second unit. Love the way he rebounds and runs out on the break.

I watched him closely all year, and one of the most disheartening things was his inability to finish his drives (and, as Brian pointed out, his inability to get fouled on drives). In particular, can't tell you how many times I saw Turner get stuffed mercilessly (happened at the end of game 4 (the game they won)?). I attribute much to the transition to the nba, but I worry he doesn't have the athleticism to finish consistently. He needs to study the game film of a paul pierce(same height) this summer. That, and retool his mid-range jumper. It would also help if team could grab a legitimate big in draft/free agency who he could dish off to or throw alley-oops to on drives. Would take much pressure off of him.

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speeke reply to ss on May 18 at 14:30
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in his defense, at the end of game four everyone was gettin their shot blocked around the rim. hopefully he can develope that floater that he hit on the baseline at the end of that game

Yeah, I think it is as simple as him cutting his drives off at 6-8 feet and shooting a short jumper. He is tall enough to get that type off, but not if he goes all the way to the rim. You can probably say the same thing for Jrue, who also is not all that explosive (but he is quicker.)

So I don't want to see him looking for 26 foot jumpers- but 6-10 foot jumpers would be good.

I tend to think that Turner's a skilled guy who's neither a good enough shooter, nor explosive enough, nor crafty enough to be much of a scorer in this league. That's the way it looks right now. People will always say, "well, if he added this or that to his game he could be like Pierce or Roy," but there are hundreds of players Turner's size who could be Pierce or Roy if they magically added Roy's body control or Pierce's ability to always get to the elbow, and then be automatic from the elbow. That's like the conversations we used to have years ago about how great Iguodala could be if he just added this or that. He didn't (and similarly, neither has Thad) because, for the most part, players are what they are.

Tuner has the handle, quickness and length to get to his spots. But he needs to develop his game to where he is all about getting to places where he can take a high percentage shot and never settle for long jumpers. Of course this is any issue that a lot of players never get past.

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eddies' heady's reply to Tray on May 18 at 20:00
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I second that motion. Amen

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eddies' heady's reply to Tray on May 18 at 20:03
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Particularly and especially the last sentence. So true, but often overlooked by fans when players are on your team.

Completely off topic.

Minny gets Iguodala/#16
Philly gets - Webster/Johnson/#2

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3o35box

Rumored that Kahn is already saying he would trade the pick for a veteran. Save roughly 4 mil, get two shooters, and pick of either Kanter or Biyombo. I'd do it.

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Ryan F reply to Ryan F on May 18 at 18:08
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Like this better.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3vmfyux

Swap Speights and Randolph while you're at it.

Webster is a waste of space and why exactly would we have to include the #16 pick in that deal?

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Ryan F reply to Brian on May 18 at 18:18
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Agree that Webster has no value, even though when he actually limps on the court he can knock down a 3.

May not necessarily have to include 16. If that is what it would take I would still do it.

Hate it?

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Ryan F reply to Brian on May 18 at 18:30
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If you get Bismack with the pick the core of the team for years to come:

Jrue
Evan
Wesley
Thad
Randolph
Bismack

That team screams athleticism to me.

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Tray reply to Ryan F on May 19 at 0:01
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I'm partly just saying this to provoke GoSixers, but I am a Randolph fan.

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johnrosz reply to Ryan F on May 18 at 18:37
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Doug was really high on Wes Johnson after he worked out with the Sixers.

I don't think they'll include Johnson in the swap, he's still a decent prospect.

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Ryan F reply to johnrosz on May 18 at 18:43
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Speculation, but I think Minny would jump all over this. They need a wing, like we need a big.

I think if either side would say no to this, it would be the Sixers.

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Ryan F reply to johnrosz on May 18 at 18:46
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They're desperately trying to bring Rubio over and don't want to lose Love in a few years. In order to do either they have to get out of the basement sooner than later. Iguodala sure as hell would help.

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johnrosz reply to Ryan F on May 18 at 18:59
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Don't disagree with that, I just can't see Wes Johnson as a throw in to make salaries match

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Ryan F reply to johnrosz on May 18 at 19:16
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The throw in would be Webster, who's contract is horrendous for his contribution, but also expires the same year as EB and Nocioni, and is only partially guaranteed the last year.

The target is Wes Johnson, Randolph, and the #2 pick. The Cavs think Hickson is the answer at F/C so they'll certainly take Irving. Then the team can have a pick at whatever big they want, Bismack, Kanter, whoever.

Starters:

Jrue
Evan
Wes
Elton
#2/Randolph

Bench:

Lou
Jodie
Thad
Hawes
#2/Randolph

Youth and Athleticism. I know we'd be worse off next year, but the future would look a lot brighter if two or three of those guys reached their potential.

A gamble, but I like to gamble.

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johnrosz reply to Ryan F on May 18 at 19:19
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they won't gut their roster to add Iguodala is all I'm saying. You won't get Randolph, Wes and the #2 for Iguodala in my opinion. They like Randolph, and they like Wes. I think Johnson would be perfect at the 3, Doug loved him after his workout, just think it's a bit of wishful thinking. Who knows with Khan though

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Ryan F reply to johnrosz on May 18 at 19:44
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It's all wishful thinking.

I know we'll end up with this guy.

Randolph intrigues me, but I'd say the odds of him developing into anything more than a curiosity are slim. Wes Johnson doesn't impress me at all, and he's OLD for a second-year player.

If you make this trade, you're pretty much crossing your fingers that one of those two guys pans out, but your target is whoever you're going to take with the number two pick. If we did get up to number two, the pick would have to be Derrick Williams. There's no way I'd pass on him for Biyombo. I think Williams will be the best player to come out of this draft, really like his game.

I would probably take williams #2 as well. The key is expectations. I don't expect him to ever be a franchise level player (or even all-star). He's going to have enough offensive talent (although not #1 type offensive talent, IMO) to be a starter, but he's going to be a guy who will have to be placed in the right situation to really be the type of asset you want in a #2 pick.

If I weren't so down on the top end of this draft, I think Williams is a 7-10 pick talent.

Have you compared his freshman year to his sophomore year? Meaning how did he improve his three point shooting better than 30%? And will he be a serious threat from three in the NBA? If he is, I wouldn't discount his potential to become an all star, or to really excel on the Sixers or a similar team with playmakers around him.

Of course I've compared his freshman year to his sophomore year. And yeah, I expect it to carry over.

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Tray reply to Brian on May 19 at 2:01
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He was extremely productive, and efficient, during a stretch late in the season when Love was injured. I don't think he had a bad or even average game in the bunch. So at that point I began to wonder if he might have turned a corner.

On topic.

I am still overly optimistic on Evan. I was in the Evan or bust wagon when we got the pick so maybe I am just hoping I was right.

I think the playoffs were more of a reflection of who is as a basketball player than the season, even though the sample sizes vary greatly. He is going to be a hard worker who does the extra things. I wouldn't bet my home on him being a career 20 ppg scorer, but I can certainly see him putting up numbers similar to Iguodala, plus the rebounds, minus the assists and defense, and in a different fashion.

He has a great handle of the ball and above average body control. He has the ability to create space with his handling and finish tight around the rim with circus shots. Seems to be a very smart player when he is confident and his head is in the game.

The only thing that worried me about him was his own head. He was underestimating defenses and seemed to get a bit lost and intimidated. I think experience will cure it. If he buckles down, and consciously tries to draw fouls and play to his strengths, he'll be a winner, with or without a sleek jumper. He is too talented not to.

If ET wears his man pants more than a few games next year, he may well turn out to be ok...will be real interesting to see if Collins starts to push him too hard or not hard enough though...


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