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Lou Williams: Prediction vs. Performance

Get on the horn with OKC & throw in the 16th pick.

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/5890679

Did this series make you think a team can be successful with Westbrook as it's offensive focal point?

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sfw reply to Brian on May 26 at 11:12
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I think Westbrook has star potential. His game is still developing which is why OKC probably wouldn't give up on him at this point. He and Turner could be very complimentory with Meeks coming off the bench. We'd get a young center and a defensive replacement for Iggy. They'd get 2 players to compliment Durant. I think it's a fairly equal trade.

How do you see Westbrook and Turner as being complementary?

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sfw reply to Brian on May 26 at 11:59
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Both could play the point or off the ball depending on the matchups. Meeks could be on the court with either of them. You could say the same of Jrue and Westbrook. John's idea works even better if you get Harden & Westbrook(and give up Turner instead of Jrue. I just don't see that happening from OKC's perspective.

Terrible trade. YOu can probably get Westbrook without even giving up Iguodala... If you are giving up Iguodala then you have to ask for at least Harden...

YOu can probably get Westbrook without even giving up Iguodal

No, you can't, and if you're getting Westbrook, you give up Igoudala anyway to get more assets.

Like when I proposed getting Westbrook AND Harden.

Here's the question for all. Can westbrook be a 2 guard type player in a back court with Holiday?

He looked much better playing off the ball last night w/ Harden running the point, so I'd say yes.

Westbrook and Turner doesn't work for me at all.

If you get Harden - do you need turner? Can Harden be a 3?

Remember my deal got harden AND westbrook but gave up holiday AND iguodala - if you swap turner in for holiday - does OKC still think about doing that.

Does OKC believe what they're being told about Westbrook or do they feel a lot of it is on Durant needing to be able to get open more and that westbroook would pass more if he was open more?

OKC is one of those 'interesting' franchises to watch because like the spurs they are at a fork in the road that is very important to their future. It's a much different fork obviously but it's still a pivotal decision making time.

I don't think they'd give up both Westbrook and Harden, and I don't think we could get Westbrook without giving up Jrue.

If I was running OKC I don't think I'd be moving any of them. I'd start Westbrook, Harden and Durant and shift the ballhandling responsibilities to Harden immediately.

Westbrook is extremely talented and you don't want to take that attacking mindset away from him, but the team's offense needs to work and I don't think it does when he's handling the ball exclusively.

I also really don't think trading for him and expecting him to play an Iverson type role in Philly is going to move us closer to contention.

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Mercury reply to Brian on May 26 at 15:15
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I would fins some way to trade Westbrook for Deron Williams. Maybe they can give Westbrook a new contract and package him along with Sefolosha.

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Mercry reply to sfw on May 26 at 12:52
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If I trade Iggy AND Jrue, I would want Harden added to the deal

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Steve V on May 26 at 9:22
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My question about Lou is if Biyombo is available at 9,10,11 would 16 plus Lou be enough to move up to get him, and would you do it? My answer is yes and yes.

I'd say Lou alone can get you the #10th pick in the draft... You don't even need to throw in the #16 pick... Lou is fairly well regarded around the league. We hate him too much to properly asses his value IMO.

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Steve V reply to Xsago on May 26 at 10:42
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I don't hate him at all he bring a dimension to this team we don't currently have, a guy that can always get his own shot. It's an aspect of the game that can be replaced pretty easily but as of now we need him. I don't think Lou warrants a top 10 pick in any draft though.

I don't think Lou could bring in a top 20 pick. I'd trade him for any first-round pick, even #30, or if that's not possible, then I'd trade him for some sandpaper, just to be rid of him. Addition by subtraction.

What you would trade him for is different from what he is worth. He is probably based on ability a top 10 player in an average draft. People tend to forget that an average draft offers up to 15 rotation players and all the others are busts or were expected to be worthless to begin with. Lou is definitely a rotation player on any team in the league... And should i remind you that this draft is weak, especially at the top...

Thanks for the reminder. This draft is stronger than last year's, in my opinion. And it's not just what I'd trade him for. If his value is what I'd trade him for, then his value would be a rotten tomato. He could probably bring a first-rounder in the 16-25 range in return. I think you're dreaming if you think he'd get us a top 10 pick.

Mike Miller and Randy Foye were worth the No. 5 pick in a stronger draft. Why can't Lou get the #9-#12 pick alone in this one?

Miller was a 17/4/3 guy before his weak season in MIN, and Randy Foye was a 16/3/4 guy. In other words, both Miller and Foye individually were bigger producers than Lou. Combine them in 2009 and it's way better than Lou in 2011, in my opinion, not just 4-7 draft slots better. Also, Washington at the time was in the unique position where it was their last chance to do something with Butler/Jamison/Haywood/Arenas. So they went for it for that year only. Are there any teams in the top 10 like that, where they have a group of guys who've been around a while that are about to be broken up if they don't contend next year? I don't think so, though I could be wrong.

Miller and Foye were traded in 2009. This is a comparison between them both up until then and Lou until now.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=millemi01&y1=2009&p2=foyera01&y2=2009&p3=willilo02&y3=2011

Lou is better then both anyway you want to put it. If you want single seasons here it is.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=millemi01&y1=2009&p2=foyera01&y2=2009&p3=willilo02&y3=2011

Not to mention that Lou is far younger than Miller. Now i do agree that in his prime Miller was better than Lou, but he was already past his prime and injury prone when he was traded. As for Foye he is basically a poor man's Lou so it's ridiculous to say that he was ever even close to as good as Lou.

In the end i didn't say Lou was worth the #5 pick. I said he is worth somewhere between #9 and #12 and that sounds reasonable to me. I want Lou gone as much as anyone but we can't diminish his value, just because we hate his style of play.

This draft is stronger than last year's, in my opinion

Why? I haven't read anyone say that, but you

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Steve V reply to GoSixers on May 26 at 14:31
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In his defense people have said that while this draft is a bit light at the top it does have very good depth specifically in the 11-25 range.

Depth in the low end of the lottery just means ther'es a lot of guys who all grade out about the same.

Doesn't make it a better draft or a deeper draft.

It's not depth at the top - it's mediocre depth - it's bench player depth unless you get lucky

Very talented European 6-11 and 7-foot guys (at least three), way better point guards (Irving, Knight, and Walker all potential studs as opposed to just Wall), an 18/8 Texas guy like Jordan Hamilton projected in the late teens (a guy like that woulda been top 10 last year I believe).

i see - i disagree with most of what you said there especially the over hyped euros.

How long has it been since a highly hyped & drafted euro has succeeded immediately?

How that's tiago splitter dude pan out? He was supposed to be an instant star

I don't have much to say about Lou that I didn't already say in articles or in comments. He's a fine sixth man, if you need points, he gets to the line better than willie green. He can't defend, he can't pass, and I think if he played major minutes in a season his body might take too much damage.

If some team want's a 'spark plug' off the bench, i'd trade him for a top 10 protected first round pick and cap relief.

I think his career best season will be the season he had with eddie jordan because eddie jordan basketball fits perfectly into lous strengths and weaknesses, all offense, no defense, shoot alot

okay guys, this is hard..... but I think it has to be done.... our relationship.... Iggy, & Us... it's going no where fast... think it's time to end it... it's hard... but it must be done ... It's not you Iggy, it's just...it's me..

F**k what I said it don't mean sh*t now
F**k the presents might as well throw 'em out
F**k all those kisses, they didn't mean jack
F**k you, you h**, I don't want you back

this song will explain it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NZNIZWwqxI&feature=related

I think, it's just time we split ways....

unless after next season, we can get D12, he might be able to rekindle our relationship.. If that's the plan, I'm willing 2 wait & ride it out..

I would trade Lou for a bag of balls. Unfortunately, I don't think he has any trade value at all. MAYBE Atlanta would be interested in a younger, cheaper Jamal Crawford-type (plus the home town thing can't hurt), but I doubt they'd give us any sort of value for it. Maybe I'm getting greedy, but I wonder if there's anyway we can move up in the draft to get both Derrick Williams and Biyombo? Stay with me - if we can leverage Igoudala to get Monta Ellis and send Ellis to Minnesota, are we close to getting the #2 pick? And if we're willing to take Biedrins contract off their hands, would G-State swap their pick with us (or maybe take Minny's #20, Minny takes our #16, and we move up to #11). I understand that doesn't GUARANTEE us Biymobo, but it's a shot. Or maybe the same type of notion works using Cleveland - sending Ellis there in exchange for #4 and some spare parts. They do have a huge cap exception so probably wouldn't be too difficult to work a deal. Just thinking aloud really.

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Marty reply to Marty on May 26 at 14:36
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Something like this:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3vb6rlj

We'd get #2 and #11, Minny would get our #16, and G-State would move back to #20.

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Freddie reply to Marty on May 26 at 15:29
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Andris Biedrins? No thanks. Why would we need Flynn if we have Holiday? Golden State makes out like bandits with this trade

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Marty reply to Freddie on May 26 at 15:35
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Biedrins and Flynn are meaningless from an impact perspective (outside of salaries). The trade is about adding Derrick Williams and giving yourself a shot at Biyombo at #11. I could care less if Minny or G-State make out like bandits - I'm concerned with the Sixers and if someone told me we could trade Igoudala for Derrick Williams and Biyombo I would make that deal in heartbeat.

Minnesota would never do this deal...

It's a decent deal for the Sixers if one of Kanter, Valanciunas and Biyombo slips and they can get him at #11...

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Marty reply to Xsago on May 26 at 16:01
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As it stands, you're probably right. But I think Ellis is the type of talent they'd like to add if they moved the #2 pick. Might have to add a couple of pieces to the puzzle here for them.

Ellis for #2 they might do, but in your offer they are also giving up Beasley and they are fairly high on him, he is far from a throw in.

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Marty reply to Xsago on May 26 at 16:25
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Are they high on him? I see conflicting reports. Didn't he also have problems getting along with Kevin Love (and aren't they both more 4's than anything else?). The trade also works if you use Webster instead of Beasley and the Sixers add Speights to the deal (to G-State). Sixers would still get Biedrins Flynn and #2 & #11.

Williams and Biyombo would actually be just about perfect fits for each other, in terms of playing style.

Jrue-Turner-Williams-Brand-Biedrins

Flynn, Lou, Meeks, Thad, Biyombo, Hawes


I don't think it's impossible that you could put another deal together using Lou and Noc's expiring, either.

I don't get the love For Biedrins - who hasn't been very useful in the NBA for a couple years now. Its' not 'change of scenery' - it's suckage

I think both parts of this are pretty unlikely, though I'd love to see it happen.

But when the dust settles, Biedrins is coming off the bench. You just made a huge commitment to youth, I'd go with it from day one.

Jrue, Turner, Williams, Brand, Biyombo.

Btw, I was very impressed with Williams' numbers from the combine. The body fat surprised me, but his drills were all very, very good imo. 19 reps @ 185 for a guy w/ a wingspan of over 7' is sick.

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Marty reply to Brian on May 26 at 19:43
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I'm with you Brian, I would start the kids too. I wish we could make a deal like this happen.

D. Williams definitely has the size to the play the four, IMO. Check out his measurements next to Blake Griffin's:

Height w/o shoes: DW - 6' 7.25" BG - 6'8.5"
Wingspan: DW - 7' 1.5" BG - 6' 11.25"
Weight: 248 lbs each
Standing reach: DW - 9' BG - 8'9" (long neck for Griffin?)
No step vert: DW - 29" BG - 32"
No step vert reach: 11' 5" for each guy.
Max vert: DW - 34.5" BG - 35.5"
Max Vert Reach: DW - 11' 10.5" BG - 11' 8.5"
Bench: DW - 19 reps @ 185 lbs BG - 22 reps
Agility: DW - 11.03 seconds BG - 10.95 seconds
3/4 court sprint - DW - 3.23 seconds BG - 3.28 seconds

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emtmess reply to Brian on May 26 at 17:25
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What deal can we make that would get us Williams with and without trading pick 16?

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Marty reply to emtmess on May 26 at 19:48
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I think you have to go get somebody for the Timberwolves with Igoudala. I don't think we can put together a package without assets from another team.

If iguodala alone isn't enough to get that pick, minny is being irrational and you need to move on

I agree. Iggy and the 16th isn't enough for Derrick Williams. MIN has no pick next year, they'd have to be bowled over to trade this year's pick imo.

If Minny had any sense they'd draft Williams and bury Beasley on the bench behind him, but Minny doesn't have any sense. Iguodala would make them better, but they have so many problems he isn't going to suddenly make them a playoff team. Of course, Minny doesn't have any sense.

If I'm making the decision, I don't give up more than Iguodala to get the pick, or at least I don't give up anything of real value. I wouldn't include #16.

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deepsixersuede on May 26 at 21:46
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As much value as Lou may have, everytime I look on the trade machine it doesn't work for other teams, either they have small guards already [Gold.St.] or a player similar to him[A.Brooks/ Pheonix]. He is a tough guy to trade.

Did anybody else get upset when Fagen, during her chat a week or so ago, said Lou was the heart and soul of our young guys and they all sorta lean on him. She seemed to be implying he is less likely to be moved than Iggy, which scares me.

I think Minn., if they like Beasley like they seem to, either drafts a big that compliments Love [Valancuicus or Bismack?] or trades for a stud s.g. to put next to Rubio. K.Martin allows W.Johnson to backup the 2 and 3 spot and Houston gets their center at #2 and moves C. Lee to the starting 2 guard spot.

K.Martin and #14 for #2 and salary [Ridnour and Webster?].

...so can we retract this year's MVP and Coach of the Year awards now??

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Tray reply to das411 on May 26 at 23:24
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No to the Coach, yes to the MVP. Rose just got done shooting 35% for the Conference Finals and 23% from three with tons of turnovers. Kind of awful. And it's not like this is some big shock, he played a fairly inefficient brand of basketball all year, especially after the All-Star break. Another reason we don't need to be building our team around beating Chicago. Rose is basically a bigger Iverson without an attitude problem, and with all respect to Iverson he was never good enough to build your team around beating him.

Congrats to the Bulls, who put up almost as good of a fight against the Heat as the Sixers did. Both teams did better than Boston.

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emtmess reply to Brian on May 27 at 0:59
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does this make anyone feel better about the Sixers? I don't feel better but then again I alreadu thought the team is closer to being able to take out Chicago or Miami than some people I have heard.

Yep still haven't seen any good reason besides people hating on AI9 why we can't just keep him, get a real center, and be the only team in the east that can beat Miami...

I been thinking the same... if we wanna bring a franchise player, theres no need to deal Iggy, our biggest neeed right now is a Center who can defend, rebound, and a player who can score 20ppg @ least ... ??? Elton Brands contract is up same year as Dwights??? seem like a perfect match ... You get the Franchise player Philly needs & the fans have been wanting, Dominant post player, Rebounder+Defender + a 20PPG+ scorer ... In the meanwhile keep your current pieces , and allow them to keep growing, *Jrue/Thad/Evan* keep Iggy around, than pursue dwight , i think its an attractive team, 3 playmakers, Phillys a great sports town , the sixers are very competitive without dwight, imagine WITH him .. our defense is good , with Dwight it might jump to the number defense in the league

Deep thinkers?!!! whatever. interesting that you label those who agree with you about lou as deep thinkers. i will never understand what the bias against lou is about, but its definitely not about his game.

Heh. I wasn't really talking about myself. My point was that while guys who can't see past PPG hate Iguodala, it's guys who actually know what TS% is seem to despise Lou, despite the fact that his advanced stats are typically pretty solid.


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