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Evaluation Bias

"Above all, though, my biggest red flag is a player who puts up amazing numbers with an advanced skillset. By no means am I saying it's a bad thing that a player develops his game at an early age or shows the work ethic to hone the fundamentals. What I'm talking about is the player who doesn't have one of the two attributes I look for, but uses over-developed skills to produce against what I consider lacking talent in the NCAA or overseas. "

I've heard it said that the Big Ten had only 1 legit NBA prospect playing in 2009/10.

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eddies' heady's reply to tk76 on Jun 1 at 10:00
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If there was only one, how legit was he though?

Sullinger?

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mgfields reply to Brian on Jun 1 at 10:19
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Wouldn't Sullinger be 10/11?

That would make Turner the only prospect in 09/10?

Yeah, I'm referring to Turner. One of the minor qualms people had with him was that he literally never played against a future NBA player in the Big Ten. And the few times he was matched against NBA caliber athletes in non Big Ten games he had some struggles (I'm thinking of the Tennessee game.)

It made it a bit harder to know how well his skills would translate- but that is an issue with whomever you draft.

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mgfields reply to tk76 on Jun 1 at 13:26
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I'm a Buckeye/Turner guy. He also was pretty inefficient against North Carolina and West Virginia his junior year, but still put up numbers by taking a lot of shots.

Yeah, I remember going back and watching some game archives when the Sixers got the #2 pick. Against athletic defenders he was often underwhelming to the eye, but still put up good numbers and the team did well. It was a bit disappointing, but did not sour me to him as an elite prospect- especially since I only saw some of his games.

Well these sound like thoughtful and informed takes, and you've certainly watched way more of these guys than I have. I just feel that, in drafting, one can't be too wedded to a type, because great players come in all types. There aren't a ton of poor athletes who succeed in the NBA, but there are plenty of pretty ordinary ones.

I generally agree with your method of evaluation, but i also believe that all great or even very good players are different in some way from everybody else. That means you can't have strict boundaries to any type of player, unless we are talking about character issues that i too believe are a huge red flags.

That being said from the little that i've seen from these players i disagree about your evaluations of them (admittedly i've seen less than you have).

- I agree about most of the stuff about Biyombo, but i am worried about his BB IQ. He looked out of control to me in the videos that i've seen. He is a great athlete with tremendous desire to be successful (which is huge for a big man btw), but has close to zero actual basketball knowledge and BB IQ. His sense for rebounding and shot blocking is very good, but that mostly comes from his effort instead of timing and positioning. All in all i would definitely take a gamble on him, but not if one of Valanciunas and Kanter are left on the board.

- Kanter looks to me like a better athlete than most give him credit for. He also has a ton of moves in the post. He also never looked like he shied away from contact. Quite the opposite. Strong play inside and contact doesn't equal dunks.

- Valanciunas is a guy who probably has the biggest upside of all the big men in the draft. He looks like a solid rebounder shot blocker and i think can be a decent P&R partner for Jrue and Evan. He needs to add more strength though to be successful in the NBA which is why he is second on my board behind Kanter

- Vesely is never going to be a star but can be a very good player in the mold of Kirilenko or even Marion. He is a poor fit with the current Sixers setup but if he falls i would definitely take him.

- Farried is a smaller version of Reggie Evans.

- D. Williams is the most difficult one to project IMO. Something about him screams bust to me. He is the definition of the bust type of player you described. He put up very good numbers against weak opposition. He is good in a decent in a lot of stuff, but is not elite in anything (actually far from it). But most important of all he looks like a guy who won't be able to defend neither the 3 nor the 4 at the NBA level at all and at the same time won't be the focal point on offense. All in all i would only take him if he fell out of the top 5-7 which definitely won't happen.

- Motiejunas is a huge risk/reward type of player. At #16 he is a decent pick, but i wouldn't move up for him.

- I would add the Morris brothers here because a lot of mocks have the Sixers taking one of them. PLEASE NO!!! They both scream major bust to me...

Sixers are scheduled to start holding college workouts Saturday.

I think if a guy lacks tremendous athleticism he better have a dead-eye jumper or have some other unique skill (Nash's passing, or a big's rebounding.) And even with Nash, he would struggle without a good jumper.

Yep, that sums it up. If they have both, then you're onto something.

Moti isn't really perimeter oriented. Of the 5 international prospects, his post game is the most refined, with the possible exception of Kanter, and he's as good as any of them at getting to the line.

He may very well end up being a bust (although I'm not sure he really could be in the teens), but it will be more because of his defense/rebounding not being good enough to allow him to see the court than it will be because of him being a perimeter focused big man.

Yeah, my concern with him was that he wouldn't have the strength to play in the post in the NBA, so he'd be forced to the perimeter.

He's added quite a bit of upper body strength, and his lower body doesn't seem underdeveloped for his age. I'm not overly worried about that.

Does anyone else get the old 90's Bulls Finals feeling?

One favored team stacked with superstars against agiing stars making one last push for a Title.

The Mavs with Kidd, Dirk, Terry etc remind me of the Finals teams that lost to the Bulls. The Suns, Blazers and Jazz teams were all older. Although the Mavs most resemble the 2004 Lakers team that lost- the one with Malone, Payton and Shaq all over 30 (although Kobe was only 25.) Still not sure how that Lakers team lost with Kobe and Shaq in their prime?

The only feeling I'm getting is that the only logical thing to do in the NBA today is to build a team designed to beat the Heat. No one else really matters.

I also wouldn't completely discount Vesely. He's a freak athlete. You get that kind of length and athleticism, and you see whether the shot is broken and it can come around. I think it can. You like length on the perimeter defensively, he can be an option.

Vesely strikes me as a wing who can't shoot and can't really handle the ball.

He's made strides with his handle. It's more his touch around the hoop that's the concern on drives.

His jumper isn't yet effective, but it doesn't appear broke to me either.

Nobody (literally) in this draft is without major weaknesses that you have to project improvement down the road.

Yep, I see what you're saying. There's something there to work with.

I would be very happy to get either Biyombo or Kanter on our team if we move up in the draft, but my pick would still be Valanciunas. He's got the size, he plays hard like Noah, and he can also play in the pick and roll with Jrue. He's got all the tools and as big an upside as anyone in the draft, but whether he gets there or how long it takes him, who knows?

Thoroughly enjoyed this post. There are always guys who I become "attached" to and believe have a future in the NBA. One guy who I liked from the moment I first saw him was Marshon Brooks his freshman year at Providence.. I hope he does well just because it would convince me I'm a basketball genius... kidding ofcourse.

Then there are guys like Keyon Dooling. Granted I was only 14 when he became my "next great player" at Missouri, but I was totally off on him. In this draft there aren't many guys I truly like, but it's still a lot of fun watching their videos and seeing who the new guys are. It's the best part of the NBA, the unique qualities of every player, and this post did a great job of summing it all up.

Guys I get attached to i often get attached to for reasons that have nothing to do with on the court. I've only ever 'wanted' three guys on the sixers (in recent memory), like long before they even declared for the draft (one guy a year before he declared)

Iguodala
Turiaf
Speights

Yes, I'll still admit I wanted speights on the sixers.

I know now why biymobo gives me pause and it's purely because his name makes me think of this company whose trucks i see all over the damn town. Man they're awful

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Tray reply to T McL on Jun 1 at 23:03
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I guess Dooling's a pretty good defender to be able to hang around for so long without being able to score or run an offense that well.

Not doing around the web any more due to time restrictions - but this question from hollingers chat is interested - cause if he's right - it screws capped teams A LOT - i thought the biannual would bite the dust.

Matt (PA)
What do you think will happen to the mid level exception in the new CBA?
John Hollinger
(2:55 PM)
Dead. No chance of survival. There may be some limited form of exception remaining (like the curent biannual exception, for instance), but killing the MLE is right near the top of the owners' priority list.

Chad Ford on an issue that was supposed to be a problem in the NFL but might be a problem in the NBA (the original question was about 'contract amnesty' and the magic)


They are. The Lakers are. The Wizards are. I could go on. The problem is that there have been a lot of small market teams that have been incredibly frugal. Why would they agree to let the big market teams off for making irresponsible gambles. The most underreported story out of the whole CBA negotiations is the major split between big market and small market owners on everything from amnesty to more important issues like revenue sharing. It's tough to have labor peace with the union when NBA owners can't get their own house in order.

More From Ford regarding trading the #4 for Rudy Gay, Iguodala or Ellis

Gay has the most interest right now. The Grizzlies still have to lock up Marc Gasol to a long-term deal and after their run this year, I think they believe Rudy isn't a necessity. Cavs would love him. But they're not the only team. He's a bit overpaid, but he's just 24 years old. Clippers would love to get their hands on him. Just not sure they have the players to get it done.

John Hollinger said in no uncertain terms that Memphis will in no way trade Rudy Gay or entertain trading Rudy gay.

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Jun 1 at 17:20
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Thorn needs to bring Brian into any negotiations regarding Iguodala, nobody seems to think he's that valuable. I think it's crazy that a potential cap suicide guy like Gay is a better buy than Iguodala (that contract is outrageous, and will be even more so in the new CBA most likely) So what if he's 24, he's coming off a pretty bad shoulder injury, and it doesn't seem all that likely that he's going to become a significantly better player going forward.

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Tray reply to johnrosz on Jun 1 at 23:02
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He got a little better this year. He made nearly 40% of his threes, had his highest win shares per 48, TS%. Though I guess I agree that if the reason he got better is simply that he became a better shooter, there's not so much room for improvement.

So yeah, Rubio would never play in minny. He doesn't like the cold weather, wants to be in a big market etc etc.


Rubio/Johnson/Williams/Love core is going to be interesting to watch.

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Tray reply to Jason on Jun 1 at 23:04
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And Randolph.

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Washburn reply to Jason on Jun 1 at 23:25
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Whats up with Rubio? Will Minnesota's rights to him ever expire? Can sign as a FA if this happens?

The rights only expired if he completely sat out of professional hoops for an entire year, then he'd go back into the draft, not become a free agent. At least that's what I remember from reports a couple years back.

I saw a headline in passing that the deadline for Rubio to sign under the terms of the current CBA was today. I guess he likes money more than warm weather. I'm pretty sure one thing that's going to get chopped is rookie scale deals. That's something guys already in the league won't be affected by, so it's a point they'll probably concede to gain something else. Same goes for raising the minimum age requirement.

There was no way Rubio was getting out of Minny unless he completely sat out a year of basketball, or somehow got Minny to trade him, so it looks like he opted to take the more lucrative rookie deal.

Personally, I think this makes it more likely that Khan will trade the #2 pick. He's got his PG now, he's going to think it's time to add a veteran or two to his roster to make the next step. I'll be surprised if they don't move the pick.

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sfw reply to Brian on Jun 2 at 8:21
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This might explain why they were(are?) looking to move back to the 4th and 8th pick. Looking to get a big and depth in the draft. Don't think they'd get the big in a trade. Unless we're talking Kaman.

Sooner he starts in the NBA, sooner he can go play for a better team for better money. Wolves made it pretty clear they ween't trading his rights, so he gets in under the old deal.

Ricky Enters, Shaq Leaves, as far as I'm concerned, net gain for the NBA


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