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Jrue Holiday Stat Rankings

Thanks Statman, great stuff.

This post will lead us perfectly into Jrue's prediction vs. performance post, which will land late tonight.

Being an average PG in a PG-driven league at age of 20 is a great achievement. I believe if Jrue continues to work on his game and improve as he gets closer to his prime, he will have a few allstar appearances before all is said and done.

Phil Sheridan with a poignant quote about the sale:

"We have no idea whether the men trying to buy the Sixers have what it takes to win. We have enough of an idea about the men trying to sell the team to hope the deal gets done."

Here's the link to his full story.

The Sheridan article is nice, and a good history, but it's also stuff that could have been said for years now, and hasn't been, at least not by the main stream media covering the sixers. I know because it's stuff I've been saying for YEARS :)

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Steve V on Jun 8 at 11:46
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Ric Bucher: " Iguodala will be traded by July 1"
I'm sad that it seems a trade is imminent but we could do alot worse in a trade than getting a 25ppg scorer. I'd rather them somehow try to pry Jordan away from LA but if it is going to happen I'd be fine with Ellis. If we could convince them to part with Udoh and we throw in Speights I think that would make it a lot better for us. One Super scorer for a great playmaker/Defender for a potentially good offensive player who is horrendous on defense for a big athletic defender with offensive potential. Then draft Singleton as he stopper.
PG: Holiday
SG: Ellis
Sf: Turner/Singleton/Thad
PF: Brand/Thad
C: Udoh

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Steve V reply to Steve V on Jun 8 at 11:58
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Also, I don't see it being a big problem to have Jrue guarding twos most nights, especially because there isn't that many dominate two guards in the league right now, and after seeing how well he played Wade at times in the playoffs I think he can effectively guard any two in the league . The problem comes with Turner guarding threes , but he also did a very good job on Lebron and at 6'7 with good strength I think he could more than hold his own. Let's face it , if/when we trade Iguodala we are not going to get equal or greater value, so I'd rather get a young very good scorer than a big man who's a stiff or an expiring contract or worse, a Hedo Turkoglu who makes the team drastically worse in the short term and hardly helps in the long term because his contract only expires a year sooner than AI9.

1. Ellis is not a great scorer. Ellis is an inefficient scorer.

2. The problem with Jrue guarding twos all the time is that Ellis is then guarding the opposing team's point guard. Ellis is a complete zero on the defensive end, and having him on PGs is a great way to watch your defense get torn apart on a regular basis. Maybe you could hide this against certain teams, and I'd be willing to try it if the player we were hiding was a legitimate asset on the offensive end. Ellis really isn't that.

PPG is a meaningless stat in a vacuum.

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Steve V reply to Brian on Jun 8 at 12:20
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Yeah I know he's not a "great " scorer but he is a good one. I'm not for the trade, I'd rather keep Iguodala because I think he can be a great piece on a championship team. I'm just saying if a trade is imminent I don't see any deals that'd be better. If Udoh was included would you like it any better?

Yeah, having Jrue full time guarding SG's sort of wasts his greates potential strengths.

The PG position in the NBA is becomeing stacked. It is key to have a guy who can defensively hold their own against elite PG's. Jrue could become that guy. I don't see Ellis in that role.

So on defense it leaves you:

-Ellis: below average defender of PG's
-Jrue: Average defender of SG's (potentially good defender of PG's)
-Turner: Below average defender of SG's (potentially above average defender of SG's)

It seems much more logical to find a SF who is a great shooter and defender. Then you have above average defenders at all 3 positions, and can have Jrue and Turner be your ball-handlers/scorers- which they are both well suited for.

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Lionel reply to Steve V on Jun 8 at 12:17
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I'm not buying this Monta Ellis for Iggy trade talk. Rod Thorn can not be that stupid. I'm holding steadfast my belief that if Iggy gets traded, that it will be to the LA Clippers. The Clippers have trade assets to offer--2012 Minnesota draft pick, expiring contracts of Chris Kaman and Randy Foye, cap space to make a lopsided trade--and the Ellis for Iggy proposal has to be a ruse of using a conference rival to get the Clippers to sweeten their offer. I would take any of those assets over bleeping Monta Ellis.

Wait, kaman foye and the 2012 draft pick which might not be valuabe in a month as it is now.

How is that better?

An expiring contact, and iffy draftpick and a bench guy.

Yeah, that's much better than Monta Ellis

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Lionel reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 12:24
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That 2012 unprotected Minnesota pick won't depreciate as much as Monta Ellis when you take him out of that stupid Golden State system. For all we know Monta Ellis is a bench player who is being paid like a starter...

Neither is a good package, imo, but I'd much prefer the Clippers package. To me, the Ellis package makes the Sixers much worse for the next three years and really provides nothing of value. The Clippers package would at least give them a pick of indeterminate value and cap relief next summer. The Ellis deal makes me want to shoot myself, the Clippers deal just makes me want to puke.

Both deals suck and the cap 'relief' is of questionable value without knowing the new rules (as is the pick )

Trading Iguodala before the new CBA is made is a stupid short sighted decision

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Steve V reply to Brian on Jun 8 at 12:45
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I'd prefer Ellis than the Clippers package unless DeAndre Jordan is involved. If the warriors include Udoh, and with Biedrins and Lee locked up they may be willing to, I think that offer trumps a bunch of average players and an unknown draft pick.

Monta Ellis is an average player, at best.

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Steve V reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 13:06
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I disagree, he's not a superstar but he's an above average player, especially this past season. His assists are slightly up and shot attempts per game down. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying I want him , I want to hold on to Andre, there's just alot worse trades we can make. It doesn't make sense to me to trade him until after the CBA gets worked out, when we can know for sure what will be beneficial to the team, and maybe even more options open up.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 13:23
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And what's your point? That Monta Ellis doesn't help his team win as much as Derrick Rose does?

http://bkref.com/tiny/l7UnI

Louis Williams under eddie jordan (his career best year i bet) and Monta Ellis this year when everyone talks about how great he is.

Yeah - tell me Monta Ellis is as good as derrick rose you idjit

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 14:40
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So your point is that Lou was more efficient last season at something like three quarters of Ellis's usage rate and three quarters of Ellis's minutes, taking about half as many shots. What does that show? We all know that Lou's actually a pretty efficient scorer because he gets to the line a lot, though I'm sure he'd not be quite as efficient if he were used as heavily as Ellis. I would agree that Rose is a better player because he (a) is a better passer, (b) is an adequate defender while Ellis is a lousy one; my only point is that Ellis, supposedly an average player at best, is more efficient than the guy who just received the MVP for his offensive contributions. So he can't be that bad, or just average.

Well, you aren't really comparing the MVP of the league to Ellis now are you? This past year, Rose was more efficient than Ellis, with a higher usage rate.

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Tray reply to Brian on Jun 8 at 14:45
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I'm not sure what measure of efficiency you're using, because Ellis finished the year with higher EFG% and TS%.

The link you put up was career numbers, not the numbers for last season. This is last season, including Iguodala link.

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Tray reply to Tray on Jun 8 at 14:49
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Oh, you know what, I seem to have somehow gotten multiple seasons in my comparison. You're right; in this season, Rose had a higher TS%, as refs finally started to give him the superstar treatment in the second half of the year. Ellis still had a higher EFG%, as he can actually shoot.

Yeah, 6.6 attempts/game from 16-23 feet at 38% is a real sign of a solid shooter.

What is it with your miniscule brain that looking at the whole story instead of picking and choosing to make your (unsupportable) arguments is beyond your comprehension.

Is this what they teach you at law school - ignore the facts that don't support your point - no one else will notice cause they're not very bright either?

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ryano reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 14:58
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I don't think anyone would argue Ellis is in Rose's league- but for what he is- a guy who can get buckets as a two guard, he's not a bad player. He's at least as efficient a scorer as Rose is- and for guards, I wouldn't call either terribly inefficient. 45% fg shooting is good for volume shooting guards. Ray Allen is a 45% shooter for his career- scoring 20 ppg on 16 shots. Ellis is a career 47% shooter, scoring just under 20 pts on 16 shots. Is Monta Ellis as good of a player as Ray Allen? Absolutely not. No where near the shooter either. But as a scorer- there is a comparison. Kobe is a 45% career shooter, 25 ppg on just under 20 shots. Similar numbers.

Yes, there is much more to the game of a player than putting the ball in the bucket. Ellis isn't a superstart, but I don't think it's fair to say Ellis is TERRIBLE and inefficient. He's good at what he does and definitely does have limitations.

I don't think I'd make the move if I were the Sixers brass- but if they did, Ellis would bring a dimension to the table that we haven't had in a few years.

Is Monta Ellis twice the player lou williams is?

Cause he's twice the salary for the same skill set

Ellis gives you 40% more production in 40% more minutes. So I guess he is worth 40% more salary in a twisted kind of way.

Sort of like saying an effective platoon player is worth 1/2 of a regular who gives you the same production on an every-day basis.

In fact most would say the regular is worth more than double.

See - there's the flaw in your argument (and you know it) how do you know lou wouldn't give you the same production if he had 40% more minutes?

You don't... and many feel like that is why Ellis is the superior player.

Sometimes you get a Jason Werth, who is being underutilized in a platoon role. But other times in small doses a player is great, but in larger dose he is exposed. Of course you can say the same about Ellis.

Jayson werth wasn't being under utilized in a platoon role, he had injury issues and another issue involving a not so legal substance (i have a reliable source for this)

He came to Philadelphia, he stopped getting hurt.

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ryano reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 15:13
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Probably not twice the player. But Ellis is a proven high volume scorer where as Lou, even in his best season, scored only 17 points per 36 minutes- and he's never even sniffed that many minutes a game for a season. There is a reason for that. You think Ellis would have been riding the bench behind Jodie Meeks, Willie Green, and the other "quality" starting guards we've had?

Lou is great at what he is- Jason Terry light. But he's not Monta Ellis. If Collins could get Ellis to work on defense a bit- and become as serviceable as Jodie has been- it doesn't make it a good trade, but it does make it a little easier to swallow.

Why is it collins responsibility to get monta ellis to play 50% of the game?

He should have done it already.

How many shots does Ellis take in his per 36 compared to lou in his per 36

I'm sorry - I don't think monta ellis is that much better than lou williams/jodie meeks combo that he's worth giving up the sixers best player

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ryano reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 15:29
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Never said he was worth it. Just saying he's better than how he's been labeled in this post.

And yes, he should have been playing defense before now- but so should Thad, Lou, and Meeks have last year. Eddie Jordan's system valued the same things that Golden State's does. Why would a 20 year old coming into the league want to do anything but score if that's all that's ever asked of him?

Also- Lou's a 42.6% career shooter. Not in the same league as Ellis. Lou is the definition of a high volume scorer. This year as our "closer" he shot 40.6%. Not exactly what I want from my shooting guard. And Jodie is too one dimensional offensively. Monta would be better than platooning with those two- in my opinion.

God - the closer thing? It's stupid in baseball it's a ridiculous idea in basketball - can we promise to refrain from thinking haveing 'one guy' who shoots at the end of ht game is a good idea - it's very easy to defend if you KNOW every time whose taking the damn shot, and NO ONE is a good closer - not even Kobe.

Monta is a ball hogging all shooting all the time player who is league average AT BEST at what he does but well below average in other things.

Andre Iguodala is above league average, at his position, in defense, rebounding, and passing

The fact that people don't think it's a HUGE step down for the sixers to trade the midget high volume shooter for the better overall player is fascinating

Lou had a higher TS% than Ellis. In a more simple formula, Williams scored more points for every shot he took than Ellis did.

Ellis is not an "upgrade" in efficiency.

Does Williams 17 points in 36 minutes (why do we always just focus on points per game - it's kind o boring) help you win more than whatever ellis gets by being a poor mans allen iverson

Doesn't ellis have free throw issues (getting there) copared to lou. Lou gets people in foul troube

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Tom Moore on Jun 8 at 12:05
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Video: Vucevic works out for Sixers, recalls being posterized by Holiday:

http://bit.ly/je9WeV

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Steve V on Jun 8 at 12:12
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Sixers hosting two workouts today:
First workout: Keith Benson, Justin Harper, Nikola Vucevic, and Jordan Williams.

Second workout: Jordan Hamilton, Scotty Hopson, Malcolm Lee, Josh Selby, and Chris Singleton.

I don't like Jordan Williams at all, if we keep Iguodala Hamilton could be the scorer we need. Benson is an interesting second round big man. He dominated mid majors for four years and has an NBA game he just needs to give a little more effort defensively because the tools are there. Also not a fan of Vucevic he's horrible defensively and doesn't really have the tools to improve on that end of the floor.

These possible Iguodala deals are making me unhappy. We should just keep him and then get Chris Andersen. If Denver signs Nene to an extention we might be able to get him for basically nothing since they need money to sign Afflalo too. That would be a win right there cause he's been a productive center the last three seasons.

And I'm excited about the new owners too. They might be good or bad but Snider didn't care much about the team. Even though he put on those Sixers warmups, which was embarrassing.

Andersen is a bench player - who gives you good production in limited minutes - if you play him major minutes his short comings and flaws will be more exposed, plus, he ain't young

i kinda like anderson, hes tough, good energy, can block shots but like you said if you play him major minutes he wont be as good, however anderson for 20 mins is a upgrade over spencer

Well I think he's a good player and someone who can help the team. He could stand to play some more minutes, he doesn't have that many miles on his legs and is still very athletic. I just think if the Sixers can't find a fair deal for Iguodala, they need to be looking for a productive big man who is undervalued so we can get him cheap. That kind of player is Andersen, who like you said has some flaws, but there's no perfect guy out there we can get without giving up something major.

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 13:45
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Hawes is worse than all of that, and yet he starts for this team.

How could we get Birdman though? It would have to be a trade, he's signed through 2013-04.

I'd say offer them Nocioni, and let them use a few million of their huge Melo trade allowance. I'm all for this!

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Tom Moore on Jun 8 at 13:07
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Blog: After Sixers workout, Vucevic recalls getting posterized by Holiday (with link to photo):

http://bit.ly/jpmJGn

Are you being posterized when the guy misses the dunk?

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Tom Moore reply to tk76 on Jun 8 at 19:23
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Looked that way -- believe Vucevic referred to it that way. He added that Holiday missed.

As someone who is not too well versed in advanced statistics, I'm having a bit of trouble seeing why Monta Ellis is being deemed an inefficient scorer. taking a look at his stats from last year,

.45 shooting from the field seems pretty good for a guard. 36 percent from 3 is slightly above average. 79 percent from the FT line is pretty good. Is that he only gets to the line 5 times a game that brings down his advanced stats?

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Tray reply to ojr107 on Jun 8 at 14:22
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He's actually a tad more efficient than the MVP of the league (see my link above).

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mopey reply to Tray on Jun 8 at 14:50
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Yeah OK, His career best year (from 5 years ago) was a tad better than Rose's worst year. Lets trade everyone for him!

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mopey reply to mopey on Jun 8 at 14:57
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Sorry it looked like you were comparing Ellis's 2006 season to Rose's 2009 season.

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minilebron reply to mopey on Jun 8 at 16:13
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A big problem comparing Rose's numbers to Ellis's has a lot to do with their team and team roles as well. Ellis plays with other good offensive players such as curry and lee, and so defenses can't focus on him as much as they do on Rose. GS also plays a type of game that involves a lot of running and transition opportunites that lead to easy baskets for people like ellis who stop playing defense and leak out on the break. Chicago has a much more disciplined style and so Rose must operate in the half court often. IF rose and ellis switched teams, you would see Rose's efficiency increase and Monta's decrease, both significantly

Efficiency is best measured by true shooting percentage and effective FG percentage (TS% and eFG%.) eFG% takes into account 3pt baskets. TS% additionally takes into account free throws.

It is sort of like looking at slugging% and OPS when measuring a power hitter instead of just HR's and average.

For Ellis his efficiency numbers are about NBA average. the problem is that he dominates the ball hurting your offensive flow to get that average production... and you get terrible defense. So sort of like the days of AI, where he works well on a defensive team that has guys who hate to shoot. But does not work on a team that wants to be lanced in its scoring attack.

At least that has been how he's been for most years at Golden State.

Dear Lebron

Don't get into a war of words with DeShawn Stevenson - just play your game - win the series and that's how things get done - right now people will just rip ya

The thing that I keep coming back to is that Iguodala's TS% is really close to Ellis. All of the major outlets say the Sixers need "a scorer," but I have serious doubts what he'd do in a more normal system, especially when he's giving you the same efficiency as Iguodala.

Honestly, a guy I'd want back in a deal would be Dorrell Wright, who would be a perfect fit next to Jrue and Turner. A true SF, can shoot the three well, defend other threes. He'd be a nice pickup. I've been dreaming up a trade that would be like:

Iguodala for Wright, the 11th Pick, and an expiring. Problem is that the Warriors don't have any bad expirings. If only the Rad Man was an extra year. You'd probably have to get a third team in to match the salaries, but I think I'd rather take Wright and the pick than Ellis.

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Tom Moore on Jun 8 at 16:34
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Video: Courtney Witte on Wednesday's Sixers workouts, including Chris Singleton, Jordan Hamilton and Nikola Vucevic:

http://bit.ly/ixIDnh

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Steve V on Jun 8 at 16:43
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Chad Ford's new Mock Draft has Biyombo at 14 to the Rockets. Would 16 ad our second rounder be enough to move up a couple spots to get him?

Chad Ford


If the Warriors can swing an Ellis for Iguodala deal, I think they'd be crazy not to do it. Iguodala is a much better fit next to Stephen Curry and would allow the team to become better defensively. I'm just not sure Ellis is a great fit in Philly. The Sixers do have a big lead guard in Jrue Holiday who defends ... so that helps. Just not sure it's the right fit.

If the warriors can swing, that's the kind of phrase that reinforces the idea that the sixers won't do it but the warriors want to.

Which could mean a 3rd team and or more sweeteners.

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Steve V reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 16:48
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Iguodala and Lou for Ellis,Wright, Udoh. Do you like that at all?

Its' better

but if they want iguodala - i want curry or no

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Ryan F reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 19:08
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+1

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Tom Moore on Jun 8 at 16:49
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Video: Chris Singleton from Florida State, Jordan Hamilton of Texas on Wednesday pre-draft workout with the Sixers:

http://bit.ly/jGosi4

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johnrosz reply to Tom Moore on Jun 8 at 17:45
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Tom, was did the Oakland center look today?

I remember being intrigued by him going back to last year.

marc stein on twitter, "sixers have discussed iggy for kaman swap, link on the way"

chad ford then follows by saying he loves that deal for the clips

Shocking, right?

I think I should just give up the ghost.

brian, would you rather keep iggy, trade him for ellis or trade him for kaman? must pick one

Keep him. That's a stupid question. Trade your best player away for pile of shit A, pile of shit B, or keep him.

But is it the same as the ellis deal in that 'sure the clippers would do it but the sixers keep saying no'

dont know yet

Hedo, Ellis and now Kaman.

Any other names that we DON'T want to hear? Next thing we are going to hear is Artest.

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johnrosz reply to tk76 on Jun 8 at 17:28
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well, we've already heard Kaman a ton. Sounds like these media people are just rehashing old ideas to me.

My head will explode if they deal for Kaman

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Rich reply to johnrosz on Jun 8 at 17:40
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Why does Iguodala have to be dealt for one guy straight up basically in all of these rumors?

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Jun 8 at 17:44
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Because these national guys don't have any actual details, and it's a lot easier to just lazily report a trade that works in theory.

I really enjoy national stories everyday about how team X is going to rape the Sixers in a trade.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jun 8 at 17:38
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I'm just holding to the hope that they can't make a deal until they change ownership and that the new people don't screw this up royally.

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Jun 8 at 17:40
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I don't think they would allow a soon to be fired GM in Thorn to trade away their biggest asset on the court.

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Rich reply to johnrosz on Jun 8 at 17:44
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That's what common sense says, but the national media is just torturing us for the hell of it then. It's not that they are great, but recent history would tell us that they don't give a shit about the Sixers.

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Jun 8 at 17:49
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Well, Iguodala is probably the highest profile name known to be on the trade block as of now. I think it has something to do with that.

Rumors create site traffic, even ones that are clearly rehashed.

I'd be more concerned if we're hearing about Kaman after the new ownership steps in.

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deepsixersuede on Jun 8 at 18:21
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Why are they concerned about getting a scorer? And instead of comparing Ellis to Lou, lets compare him to Evan, who is our supposed future s.g.? Has Collins, or this organization given up on him already as a possible 18 to 22 ppg. scorer?

He does everything else better than Ellis already and if given 25 shots a night who knows what he gives you. It pisses me off that he may not get a chance to be what we hoped he could.

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johnrosz on Jun 8 at 18:51
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Iggy LOVES the idea of playing for the Clippers according to Marc Stein.

he(stein) also said LAC would have to sweeten the deal

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johnrosz reply to sixerfan1220 on Jun 8 at 18:55
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This just proves to me that Dre wants out. Some around here still don't seem to want to accept it.

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Mike P reply to johnrosz on Jun 8 at 19:05
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Give us Jordon and Gordon and Iggy can do whatever the F he wants.

Of course that isn't going to happen.

Oh Iggy, you are way more valuable to us then any player being offered to us on their teams.

So - you're willing to believe baseless rumors when they prove your point - but not when they don't? Gotcha

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 19:35
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I don't believe that the Sixers will make any moves until new ownership takes over. They aren't going to allow a GM in limbo to make any moves involving valuable assets. Everything is likely on freeze other than day to day operations. That's common business practice.

I DO believe Iggy wants out, rumors only add to the body of evidence Iggy has already created to suggest that he no longer wants to be here.

I think if new ownership takes over and shows an intelligence that the comcast ownership hasn't that Iguodal would be more than happy to stay. I'd be sick and tired of being a part of this franchise after being thrown under the bus so often by the fans with no one sticking up for him.

New Ownership is the best thing to happen to those who want Iguodala to stay.

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johnrosz reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 19:42
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I don't really blame him for wanting to leave. I just think it's more likely than not that he wants out. I don't believe the new owners will have any bearing on his desire to leave, barring some trades that instantly make the Sixers a top 4 team in the East next year. Seems unlikely that anything like that would even be possible.

Top four in the East? That's not really a giant hurdle, with modest improvement they could challenge for it next year, probably achieve it the year after, depending on the moves Boston and Orlando make.

None of us knows, but my personal guess is that Iggy wants out no matter who the owners are. And that's fine, he's been here a long time, always good to try something new. I can't stay in the same city for more than 3 years. Philly I left the minute I turned 18 and never looked back, so I couldn't blame him for wanting to get out.

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Kenny reply to sixerfan1220 on Jun 9 at 0:17
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Of course Iggy would prefer to go to the Clippers.

Besides the better weather, prettier women, and being a more entertaining city, Iggy would get to play with a more talented cast of teammates. Besides Iggy, the Clippers have better players in every position but point guard.

Deandre Jordan > Hawes
Griffin > Brand
Gordon > Meeks
Williams

Iggy probably has a home in LA, spends his off-season there, and probably has longed for the chance to play for a fan base that doesn't fault him for most of the Sixers woes.


Blog: Are Sixers talking about sending Iguodala to Clippers for Kaman?

http://ow.ly/5dxiB

(with Iguodala's exit interview, photo)

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johnrosz on Jun 8 at 20:42
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Why are they still letting Thorn entertain the idea of trading Dre? I would be stunned if he survives the ownership change. Witte and DiLeo will stay on I would think, at least for the time being.

Because they can't STOP running their business, it's not a done deal, I'm sure if it gets close to being done they'll consult with the potential owners.

But in 23 days, the CBA expires, and Iguodala CANT be traded. Even if a sale is AGREED upon - do you think the board of governors will agree before the expiration of the new CBA?

We know negotiations are happening - but trust me - my company just went through it on a warehouse space - it's not over until it's over - and even then it's not over until the contracts are SIGNED - we almost fell out of it 20 minutes because they tried to shove something new in the lease without warning.

So, um, is there a sixersbeat tomorrow night?

Really? Is Ellis better than Lou? Is Kaman even better than Hawes? Marginally at best.

One undersized, overly hyped, volume shooting, ball hogging, waste of 10 mil, and another over-weight, grounded, long two shooting, bad hair having, injury prone softy. That is what Iguodala is worth?

What bullshit last few days. I need one of these jerks to regurgitate news that would actually excite me.

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johnrosz reply to Ryan F on Jun 8 at 20:46
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lets be fair to Kaman, he gave up the epic combover a few years ago.

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Ryan F reply to johnrosz on Jun 8 at 20:54
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Being honest. I'd rather sign Battie to another min deal than have Kaman on the roster.

Did actually just do some research, and his num per 36 are significantly better than Hawes. Still he's slow, soft and injured.

In my opinion, Ellis is monstrously better than Lou. I've tried to learn this "true shooting percentage" thing, but I can't figure it out. I asked what it was and Brian explained it as combining FG%, 3-point %, and foul-shooting % to give a better sense of efficiency. And (I think) Brian and Derek have said Lou's true % is either equal to or better than Ellis's.

And that's what I can't comprehend. I freely admit I'm not a stat junkie, don't really get the advanced stats. I don't get how true % adds 3-point %, when field-goal % itself already includes 3-point %. And just looking at the real stats, Ellis's field-goal % was 45.1, Lou's was 40.6. Ellis's 3P% was 36.2, Lou's was 34.8. The only % that Lou had higher than Ellis was free throws, at 82.3 to 78.9.

I for the life of me cannot figure out how Ellis can have a way higher field goal %, a slightly here 3-point %, and a slightly lower free-throw %, and yet somehow be equal to or worse than Lou at the "true" shooting %. If that is really the case, I think the "true" shooting % methodology is seriously flawed. How does Lou making 3 more free throws (worth 1 point) out of 100 completely make up for Ellis hitting 4.5 more field goals (worth 2 to 3 points) and 1.4 3-pointers (worth 3 points) out of 100?

It makes no sense.

Meant to say it makes no sense "to me." I'm sure it makes sense to people who are into the advanced stats, but I certainly don't get it.

Lou also gets to the line more frequently than Ellis.

Look at it this way. Not including turnovers, last season Ellis used about 1,800 possessions (1,611 field goal attempts, each counting as 1, and 431 free throw attempts, each one counting as 0.44 possessions) to score 1,929 points. So he scored 1.07 points per possession used (again, not including turnovers).

Lou used 951 possessions (795 field goal attempts and 356 free throw attempts) to score 1,027 points. 1.08 points per possession, again without turnovers taken into account.

Now, when you add the turnovers in as possessions used, it's even more in favor of Lou. Monta: 0.94, Lou: 0.97.

Shooting percentages alone don't even come close to telling you the whole story.

Gotcha, I understand it much better this way. My brain is more functional seeing the numbers!

I'm still a simpleton at heart I guess. I just look at Ellis's typical game of 9 for 20. It just seems fairly good to me.

There's many trades I'd rather see than Iggy for Ellis. I'd love Iggy for Biyombo or Kanter. Or even Bargnani. It seems to be a near certainty that Iggy is getting traded before July 1. If Iggy wants out, it makes sense to trade him now, when we only need to match a salary of $12M, because when his salary escalates, we'll have to take a much higher salary back, which could be very problematic with a hard cap.

Thus, if Iggy is gone, I'll just be happy getting the best player possible for him. I hope it's someone better than Ellis, but if it's not, I'll just be excited about the hopefully new high-scoring attack.

See, you just lose all credibility when you say you want Bargnani.

Haha I don't have any credibility to lose, I like Hawes!

And I was just saying I'd rather have Bargnani than Ellis. Is that such a crazy idea?

Bargnani is quite possibly the worst player in the league who plays starters minutes. That's not to say Thorn wouldn't trade for him.

Thanks for the breakdown Brian. Just wondering why the number is .44 for each free throw

Someone did the research over a long history and determined that .44 is the right modifier to account for 3 point plays and the like :)

It's a long ardurous statistical thing that makes my brain hurt. I trust the person who came up with the formula so trust that .44 is the right modifier :)

Thanks. I figured it was derived from some formula rather than being arbitrarily chosen.

It's amazing the amount of people I have run into that love the idea of Ellis for Iggy on various message boards. Just trying to show them the light


From Twitter, good news:

sam_amick Sam Amick

Source close to Sixers-Clippers trade talks says of Iguodala-Kaman: "Don't waste your time," when asked how seriously it should be taken.

Question. Who would you rather have take the rock with the game on the line? Iggy or Ellis?

What would you rather do with the game on the line...telegraph to the defending team who is going to shoot so they can ignore everyone else, or draw up an intelligent play decided to get the best shot for the most open player in his position.

I hate your question cause the game on the line has to be one closer thing is even more stupid in basketball than baseball

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Kyle reply to GoSixers on Jun 8 at 23:40
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I'm with you. Unfortunately, Doug Collins consistently let Iguodala try to close the game. It failed more often than not. He isn't alone in allowing his best player to end the game. I mean unless you are loaded with talent, you are pretty sure who is getting the ball at the end of the game.

Besides, it's just a hypothetical. I'm interested on how people answer.

Personally, I don't know where I stand on Iggy for Ellis. I continue to flip-flop. I don't think Ellis is as terrible as some seem to think. I don't think he is great. But, dude fills it up. No doubt, our perimeter defense would be killed without AI9.

I think I fall more on the side of moving on from Iguodala. I wouldn't jump at this trade, but it's not a horrible consolation prize. I'm just ready to move on. Monta disrupting the progression of Holiday and Turner is a legitimate concern though.

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Kyle reply to Kyle on Jun 8 at 23:42
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and, to answer my own question. I'd take my chances on Ellis breaking down his defender than Iggy.

If I'm game planning against a team with Monta on it, especially against the Warriors, I'm telling my perimeter defenders to encourage Monta to shoot every time down the floor. I'd never send a double at him, I'd just let him jack up 20-footers all night long, which he's more than willing to do. That team had so many better options on the offensive end. If they get rid of Ellis, even if they don't replace him with someone as good as Iguodala, their offensive is really going to improve, as will their defense.

So to answer your question, I wouldn't want the ball in either of their hands in an isolation to end the game.

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Kyle reply to Brian on Jun 9 at 0:47
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i think i've figured both of your answers, as coded as they seem to be.

way to not answer it, though. haha, just playing.

Does anyone know someone who has a twitter that basketball people follow that we can convince to put the Sixers and Magic have discussed an Iguodala for Howard swap and the deal is there for Orlando to take and the Sixers would probably do it?

Listen to this interview with Ric Bucher. This guy is a complete idiot:

link

9:00 in he's asked if he thinks the Warriors should trade Monta for Iguodala. His answer is no, he thinks they should trade Curry for Iguodala. His reason: He thinks Monta could become a lockdown defender, a guy who could blanket Kobe. He also thinks he "has more room to grow" than Curry.

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johnrosz reply to Brian on Jun 9 at 0:37
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maybe they can actually get Curry? You'd do that, right?

Salaries are way off, they'd probably have to take a garbage contract back as well, but yeah. Curry's offense is good enough to offset his defense. I'd just cross my fingers that Turner can play the three.

Hey - wait a minute - maybe bucher is on to something - yes curry for iguodala (and salary to make it work) sounds good to me.

brian, just finished listening to that interview, the only thing that made some sense is when he shot down the kaman for iggy deal

Even there, he's assuming that Collins is calling the shots. I'm not sure that's a safe assumption.

I'd much rather keep him, but if the Sixers are committed to moving him for whatever insane reason, then Iguodala for a top 5 draft pick is sounding better and better after listening to some of these trade rumors.

Iggy for a top 5 pick would be best, but not happening, unfortunately.

BTW, this was an awesome breakdown Statman.


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