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Fun With Synergy: Turner's Iso Game

I completely agree about Turner. I guess the biggest question that remains about him is what Collins and the front office think of him. If they truly give him a chance (even if that costs them a few wins early on) i think he will definitely be able to succeed. I have no doubt in my mind that he will become a good 10-18 foot shooter and an average three point shooter. I actually don't think he is that far off. His main problem with his jump shot is confidence IMO and i feel like he gained confidence as the season progressed. My guess is the lockout will benefit him mentally.

Nice job. I generally agree with every statement you made.

One thing I'd clarify:


"In his first year in the pros, Turner was surprisingly much better scoring in iso sets than he was in college."

As you kind of explained in your low sample size/high efficiency afterwards, his extremely high usage at Ohio State played a role in this. If you go back to his sophomore season, he had an PPP of 0.838, and 0.854 his freshman year. Before his junior year, his isolation game was where he created the majority of his offense.

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Rich reply to Derek Bodner on Jul 8 at 8:02
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Thanks for that. Well, I guess that's a little more encouraging.

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deepsixersuede on Jul 8 at 8:19
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Down the road are we going to regret never giving the Jrue,Evan, Iggy trio a chance to succeed? With Elton and Thad scoring efficiently at the p.f. spot and drafting a possible scoring threat at the 5, I wish they would just let things play out.

Rich, I agree that he has a better chance to succeed at the s.g. spot, and could be a great p.g. in my opinion, but Collins seems to be intrigued by having a p.f. type since he has had Iggy and G.Hill prior to this. I hope he isn't moved to the s.f. spot because of some preconcieved notion of our coach that he can only play that role.

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eddies' heady's on Jul 8 at 9:12
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Interesting post.

"It's hard to find a good amount of people in the league that are able to make these moves"

Really? You sure about that? Or how are you defining 'good amount'?

I think it should be taken into consideration that when you are being guarded by the Al Farouq Aminu's, and Anthony Carter's, and Derrick Brown's of the league, tempering of the optimism shouldn't be far behind. Being matched up against this caliber of guy and getting offense isn't anything to sneeze at. I realize he got moves off against better defenders, but still.

"His handle and change of direction moves are excellent"

My counter to this would be what I've said before - fancy dribbling but 'mostly' going nowhere. And as you said, those moves "better be excellent because that's the main way he scores" is sort of a major problem for me if he is going to play the 2. He will have to become adept at running off screens and be able to catch and shoot, especially because, as you said, he isn't an elite athlete off his feet and doesn't have a quick enough first step.

"At the same time, he works hard for his points. This includes not getting to the rim very well"

This is a major bugaboo because he always looks like he's grinding away just to get a look. A consistent fixed jumper can alleviate a lot of this.

"That being said, he gets his jumper off pretty easily"

Don't really agree with this. As mentioned, he grinds too hard 'just' to get something off. Along with, he has ability to make moves with his crafty dribbling (as you said) but doesn't accomplish anything of substance from doing it. He mostly would just end up passing the ball to the nearest teammate that he dribbled closest to.

"I think he can shoot over many twos, but he may struggle with size"

This is a major red flag, to me. He maybe can shoot over twos, but getting by them will be a problem if they begin to crowd him. He can't shoot over threes and doesn't possess the quick first step to get by them either. And I don't think shaking a guy side to side will be that productive when factoring in help defense coming over to cheat.

"Defenses laying off him are a problem, but he has the quickness to go by people who crowd him"

He got to the rim very little but a big issue for me was he rarely drew and absorbed contact resulting in a trip to the line. He never seemed to implement the art of deception to get a guy committed so he could draw a foul. And as you say, lack of respect and passitivy to shoot his jumper will be a quick ticket to bench minutes in this league.

"The three-ball would be a huge weapon, but he doesn't have it"

This is the end-all for me of him not being able to play the 2, along with the lack of getting separation off screens and catching and shooting.

This is why I've said he's better suited as a backup PG (more individual and team success in his preferred ball-dominant role) or a backup wing player but at which position (2 or 3) it's hard to say - matchups would dictate, I guess.

While this probably seems like a counter to everyting you wrote (it is, isn't it? :)), basically the guy *must* become a more consistent jump shooter in any situation to achieve any ascension in his individual and team game. Which is the same conclusion you came to, except for, I disagree with your assertion of not being frightened by that proposition - because I am, big time.

don't think I agree with any of this

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Ryan F reply to stoned81 on Jul 8 at 13:16
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+1

I mean, he had his moments against Wade and LeBron. I could track them down. Remember though, I am not saying he's going to be a Superstar, just a quality starter. If Jrue develops the way he can, he will be guarded by guys like Aminu and Carter in the future.

In what he showed in his iso game, I don't think there are many guys who can break free with these moves. On his jumper he gets good separaration constantly and has the ability to shoot over these guys. If he wanted to shoot it more, he could have gotten a clean look a lot. He just wasn't confident in his shot.

As for the fact that he can't get to the rim, that's largely a product of the defense playing off him. Once they have to respect the jumper, they can't basically run to the rim to take his drive away. A difference of opinion on his jumper improving...

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eddies' heady's reply to Rich on Jul 8 at 11:01
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"I mean, he had his moments against Wade and LeBron. I could track them down."

A blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while too, right?

"Remember though, I am not saying he's going to be a Superstar, just a quality starter."

And this is where we are on two different wavelengths. You see him as a quality starter. If he ever reaches starter material, I only see him as a marginal one. But as of now, I see him more as a bench role player, and really, that's all he has shown he's capable of, however incrementally.

I actually was away from a computer all day and reread this part:

"This is a major red flag, to me. He maybe can shoot over twos, but getting by them will be a problem if they begin to crowd him. He can't shoot over threes and doesn't possess the quick first step to get by them either. And I don't think shaking a guy side to side will be that productive when factoring in help defense coming over to cheat."

From what I saw on the video he can get by almost everybody who crowds him. If people crowd him (whatever position it is) he can go by them, especially a 2 that he's stronger then. He's not that slow. Threes that space him properly will give him trouble, but if they crowd him, he can go by.

Just watching the Brown play, if ET comes back with another quick crossover towards the middle, Brown's ankles are broken because he's already off-balance selling out to block Turner's drive. Instead it was one halfhearted crossover which isn't enough. The problem for him right now is that as soon as he starts driving people sell out to get back to the rim knowing they'd rather him stop and shoot a jumper.

If he draws help defense, that's a good thing (open shooters).

Great post Rich! I agree 100%, excellent analysis.

I agree with the post and thanks to save me from a boring morning at work..
TurnerĀ“s game to me looks like an hybrid of caron butler and brandon roy but with a shaky J. Both players are average NBA athletes that got by with smarts and skills.
Have a jumpshot is a skill that Turner struggle in his rookie season, I know he lost confidence at the beggining but if you look at the end of season he shot way better, even the 3ball in the playoffs..
Another point is I saw some of TurnerĀ“s games at college and he was leaner,a bit faster. I know he had to get stronger to play in the NBA but if you are not an elite athlete, getting heavier by lifting weights gets you slower than you already are..
I would like to see 1 more season to make my opinion on Turner, it would b nice to see him after one NBA summer workout regime but with the lockout
How much Turner improve next season, it will tell a lot about his caracter as a player

Great post Rich. Biggest concern is "he works hard for his points." No matter what, he will have to overcompensate for his lack of athleticism. He needs to add strength so that the separation he creates through dribbling can be used to get to the rim. Like you say though, he will struggle with size. He needs to work hard to be that quality starter, but all indications point to him doing so.

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Rich reply to T McL on Jul 8 at 12:25
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The funny thing about athleticism is that it's not just a first step and how high you jump. It's also coordination and body control which is what Turner has. I call that 'Steve Nash athleticism.'

You're forgetting he's already making large strides. He started the year going 1-25 from three. Remember that? He ended up shooting like 32%. That's a large improvement.

Thanks for analysis.

What about his post up game? Is that a weapon he can use? I remember him scoring against Lebron in his first game with a post up move.

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Rich reply to Dan on Jul 8 at 12:21
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Coming up at a later date. Synergy has post up video too.

Very small sample size (only 35 possessions). He was efficient, though.

So would you rather:

trade Igoudala, become a lottery team and build with a lineup of Jrue-Turner-Sullinger
-or-

keep Igoudala, be a #6 seed, and draft Thomas Robinson

-or-
keep Igoudala, and trade Thad, Evan, 1st round draft pick, and Noc. for an all-star player

#3's too hypothetical for me. Depends on the type and level of that player.

As for the first 2, #1 would be the preference by far. But I don't think this team is that bad for that to happen, even without Iguodala.

Just dumping Iggy doesn't put us among the 5 worst teams in the league which is what's required to hopefully get lucky and land Sullinger.

I think if neither ET nor Jrue stepped up to legit all star play we'd be a bottom 5 team in the league. No way a Meeks/Turner wing can cut it, unless you think Thad can turn into a 3.

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Dan reply to stoned81 on Jul 8 at 19:19
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What if we rehire Eddie Jordan?

Haha, then we get the #1 overall pick!

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Korean76ersFan reply to Dan on Jul 8 at 17:07
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Choice #1, but I wouldn't pick Sullinger unless it was great value

Just for the sake of hypotheticals, would you do that trade above if you got danny granger and say roy hibbert or something and consider playing iguodala at the two and granger at the three? pretty good offense defense with a guy that can shoot threes.

Probably not a possible trade by any means though

Yao Ming is retiring. Shame.

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