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Pressing Questions - July 22, 2011

How much i am willing to pay to keep Thad really depends on the new CBA. Assuming the financial situation remains similar though i'd say Thad i worth somewhere between7.5 and 8.5 million per year. Maybe a 33 million for 4 years? Or a contract similar to what Marion got from the Mavericks. If you can get him for anything less than that, it would be great.

Thad's idea of what position he plays doesn't concern me. His almost one dimensional type of game (scoring) combined with his limited repertoire of offensive moves concern me a lot more.

To me he's scoring off the bench. Lou Williams is scoring off the bench but from a different position and possibly better at creating his own shot (and shooting the 3). He's just taller than lou.

I mean does his height make him worth more than lou?

Question for someone smarter than me. According to the reports today, the NFL PLayers are getting 47% of the revenue when this deal finally gets done (chest puffing aside).

How does that compare to the 'basketball related income' number that the NBA players aren't willing to give back?

Is there a distinction as to what constitutes revenue in the NFL vs. the NBA?

That's kind of what i was asking - the nfl one only said 'revenue' whereas the nba one is basketball related income - so i wondered if it was maybe a portion or something.

Cause if NFL players are 'only' getting 47% of the 'equivalent' income - then NBA players need to shut up and realize for the good of their own league they need to reduce that BRI number down. But that's dependent on the revenue calculations. I wouldn't even know who to ask about something like that

I know the definition of the pie is another issue the Owners want to tackle. They want the players to get their percentage out of profits, basically. Or at least they want to calculate certain costs into the BRI number before the players' share is calculated. I have to think the NFL bases their number on something closer to the red meat than what the NBA uses. It never really made sense that they'd get their share out of raw income to me.

Here's my latest from SB Nation Philly link. I talk a little bit about how the new CBA could impact the Sixers ability to re-sign him.

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eddies' heady's on Jul 22 at 13:26
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I'd say he deserves a contract right around what Lou got a few years back. He's worth about 5 million a year, at max 6 to 6.5 million a year. Any more than that and they're overpaying especially with the financial landscape changing with this new deal.

Personally, I think he's more valuable than Lou, but I don't argue w/ your numbers in the contract. It would be a no-brainer if they could get him for that, but I don't think it's likely. I think I could probably live with it up to around $8M, if it doesn't escalate. Anything more than that is lunacy, imo.

May I ask, aside from his height, why you think he's worth more than Lou? What does he bring at his position that Lou doesn't bring at his? Cause like I said up top, I see thad as just a taller lou who can't shoot threes (not that lou can do it well but he does it better than thad)

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Jul 22 at 17:14
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Very fair question that might be hard to answer. It feels like Thad is more valuable than Lou, but I'm not sure that's true. Maybe that he's probably more consistent? He sure feels more consistent, but I can't back that up in numbers. Might be worth a post.

In the simplest terms, I see Lou as a guy who can keep your offense at least close to average by dominating the ball and scoring somewhat efficiently. I see Thad as a guy who can elevate the offense with more efficient scoring, playing within the offense (which is a big distinction). On the defensive end, neither guy is an asset, but Thad hurts you less, if that makes sense.

Or to put it even more simply, with Lou coming in off the bench, you hope to tread water. With Thad, you look to explode.

I don't see explosion in his game yet, I see one move - that teams will learn to defend and that will cut his productivity in half - at least - he has to learn some more moves - he's pure athleticism now -a nd that's easy to defend if he doesn't learn to play basketball better.

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Jul 22 at 17:36
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Curious to what makes you think he will be 'guardable?' His efficiency seems fairly sustainable at least for the near future for me.

Make him go right

Much easier said than done.

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eddies' heady's reply to Brian on Jul 22 at 23:49
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understatement

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Jul 22 at 18:30
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Good luck to any of the other teams with that. That's been in the scouting report since day one.

In the half court, driving left is clearly his favorite and best move, though he does have some others. But everyone knew that last year, and very few were able to stop it, even if they overplayed for it. It's kind of like how Iverson never went left but it didn't matter, he was too quick to stop. Thad is too quick to stop for fours. Really, Joel Anthony is the only guy who consistently stopped him from my recollection this season.

His halfcourt game isn't the only way he helps the offense, though. His athleticism creates transition opportunities that just don't exist with most PFs on the floor. Thad creates easy points, which this team needs. Lou converts tough shots better than anyone else on the team, and creates his own shot, but he isn't exactly efficient in doing so, and you get Lou's offense at the expense of other guys on the team, not so with Thad.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jul 22 at 18:33
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I think he has counters to get back to his left too. If you give him the right side, he'll blow by you with a couple of dribbles and as soon as the defender catches up, he spins back left. Synergy should tell the story of what he does in iso situations.

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johnrosz reply to Rich on Jul 22 at 19:16
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yeah man, didn't agree with that limited repertoire comment either. People don't respect his jumper and he still gets his looks at will. Kinda wish he'd go work with Herb too, Thad with a respectable mid range J would be pretty unbelievable

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Rich reply to johnrosz on Jul 22 at 19:38
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Saying someone has a limited repertoire doesn't really matter if he does that one thing really well. Ray Allen only strikes me as a guy who runs of screens. With lefties, there is something that makes it difficult to guard them. Maybe it's just that they are unique. Manu Ginobili has always been able to get back to his left when driving.

As far as Thad's repertoire, I have two main qualms with his game. 1st is that he's a bad shooter, which he shouldn't be. That's just repetition, because his form is pretty good. The other is that he doesn't draw enough contact for my liking. It's amazing that he's such an efficient offensive game with two big holes. He's a fine driver though.

Thad doesn't make jumpers unless he dribbles first. He doesn't have a high percentage in catch-and-shoot situations.

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Rich reply to Tom Moore on Jul 22 at 21:41
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Seems that he knows that too. Have to say though, he's not great at that either. It's definitely a win for the defense if he's shooting a jumper of the dribble.

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eddies' heady's reply to Rich on Jul 22 at 23:53
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Totally agree it's a plus for them.....his touch has never lent itself to feel. He never looks the same doing it. So erratic. All over the place, at times.

Actually, he shot better in catch and shoot situations than jumpers off the dribble, although he was terrible at both. He shot 37.8% in catch and shoot situations, which was only better than 24% of the NBA. He shot 30.1% on jump shots off the dribble, only better than 17% of the league.

Thad is better than Lou, in my opinion, because Thad shot 54% last year and Lou shot 40.6%. I get that forwards have better percentages than guards, but Thad's percentage is extremely high for his position, while Lou's is extremely low for his position. And I know there's that thing called "true shooting percentage" and I simply don't agree with that computerized stat, because it puts way too much emphasis on foul shooting and has an extra emphasis on 3-point percentage which is odd since field goal % already includes 3-point percentage.

I worry that Thad will be overpaid. $8M a year for 4 years would be OK, no more. But he's still way better than Lou in my opinion. If you trade Lou for a paper bag, the team improves (addition by subtraction). If you let Thad walk, it might be the best idea for the long run because of the salary implications, but the team will downgrade for a bit because we lose a legit scorer who puts the ball in the basket.

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Rich reply to stoned81 on Jul 23 at 11:08
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"And I know there's that thing called "true shooting percentage" and I simply don't agree with that computerized stat, because it puts way too much emphasis on foul shooting and has an extra emphasis on 3-point percentage which is odd since field goal % already includes 3-point percentage."

It has extra (or a better word, proper) weight on threes, because you know, they are worth an extra point. If I took 100 shots, I'd get more points for shooting 40 percent on all threes than 50 percent on all twos, even though my field goal percentage would be lower.

Also, it may not be perfect, but trying to add foul shooting is admirable, because Lou is great at getting to the line (especially for his position) and Thad is not (especially for his position).

I see your points, but the TS% methodology is flawed. Monta Ellis shoots a much better field goal percentage, a better 3-point percentage, and a slightly lower free-throw percentage than Lou, and yet they have identical TS%. It's extremely tilted toward free-throws which, in my mind, is absurd. Any guard in the NBA can shoot 80% from the line. What distinguishes good guards from bad guards is that good guards can put it in the hoop when there is a defense on them. Ellis is much better at that than Lou. While I wouldn't trade Iggy for Ellis, I'd trade Lou for Ellis in a heartbeat.

The stat isn't flawed, your understanding of it is.

I remember your explanation regarding points scored based on number of shots, and that made more sense as far as understanding.

But that's not a shooting "percentage" in my mind. In my view, a player's shooting quality is based on how many shots he puts in the basket with a defense on him. True-shooting percentage completely throws that out the window. It's a completely new stat, it has nothing to do with shooting percentage. It discounts the importance of percentage of field goals made.

In my opinion, field goal percentage is a very important stat. It's not important at all in the "true shooting percentage" world and thus I think "true shooting percentage" is a flawed stat.

2 years ago the best jump shooter on the Sixers based on FG% on jumpers was Willie Green. But almost all of his shots were 20 footers. I'll take a guy who shoots only 3's but hits 37% of them over a guy who hits a better percentage but takes long 2's.

FG% says little about whether a guy can shoot. But it does say something about whether a guy takes quality shots. Thad's FG% rose this year because Collins had him taking better shots. But he needs to start drawing some fouls to be even more effective. It would show in his TS% and would reflect a needed step he needs to take in his development.

I would agree with this. This line told me all I needed:

"because it puts way too much emphasis on foul shooting and has an extra emphasis on 3-point percentage which is odd since field goal % already includes 3-point percentage."

Thad Young is a bench player and should be paid as a bench player. He's a defensive weakness and a tweener. I'm not sure why he deserves 8 million dollars a year when he has half a game and doesn't have a position?

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johnrosz on Jul 22 at 18:45
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I think he's a way better player than Lou. He doesn't usually take bad shots, and the offense doesn't come to a grinding halt when he enters the game. He's not a good defender by any means, but he gives great effort against much bigger guys at the 4 some nights, and I think he still has room to improve on that end.

He's rediscovered his game under DC, and getting back on track has helped him realize what type of player he is in the NBA. Think he's going to continue to get better, love Thad.

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eddies' heady's reply to johnrosz on Jul 22 at 23:54
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mouthful feel the same

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eddies' heady's reply to johnrosz on Jul 22 at 23:58
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except for the Lou exaggeration....can't agree with that...Lou is nice, though often not under control...efficiency is overdone when being objective with players like that...they are what they are, just depends on how one chooses to use them. Or how much leash is given when doing that.

Agreed.

Jrue Holiday 2010-11 season video interview highlights:

http://ow.ly/5LnCu

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Fred reply to Tom Moore on Jul 24 at 15:04
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Really? Interview highlights? Was it atleast autotuned?

4yr/35mil

I can't wait to see how he improves under DC. I don't want him to start but rather stay at 28-30 mpg while giving defensive effort, improved rebounding, and continuing to be an offensive dynamo.

anybody else notice that Jrue is now on Facebook too?

http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/pages/Jrue-Holiday/121874947907086

5 years/ 42 mill. Anything more is just ludacris (if you don't consider that deal to be). Do you think that Thad can be used as a trade piece? Maybe used to acquire Andre Bogut? Thad is young, athletic and somewhat proven. He may be attractive to many teams. If he was in the draft this year I'm pretty sure he would have been a top 5 pick.

Brian what's up with these spammers overtaking your comments? At least they are lost and only spam the old threads!

I spoke to soon! ARGHHH!!!


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