DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan



, all the time

Charlotte Never Stood A Chance

I have a quiz question for everyone in this forum. If you know the answer already, don't give it away.

What percentage is Jodie Meeks shooting from 3 this year? And what percentage is he shooting overall from the floor?

Without looking it up, I'd probably say better than last year on both. 40%+ on 3's, maybe low 40's overall. His problem, if he has one, is how streaky he's been. Plus, his shooting is pretty much the only thing he gives you, so when he's on a cold streak, it's extremely noticeable. It's also the nature of being a specialist, most nights, he's done his job if he hits a pair of threes, and two threes over the course of an entire game, well, they don't really leave a lasting impression, but it equals very good efficiency.

Until tonight he had shot well recently, bringing him above last year's percentages I'm sure. That would be fine for a 10-minute per game 3-point specialist. But the guy has practically been leading the team in minutes since he whined about getting 16 min against the Knicks, and that's ridiculous.

Other teams don't start 3-point specialists, and don't play 3-point specialists 30 minutes a game, regardless of their 3-point percentage. Why? Because they do nothing else. Meeks is a terrible defender, so you're giving up a ton on that end, for the reward of a few threes, and only if he's hot. That's crazy at 30 minutes a game. It's fine for 10 minutes a game, you bring him in, he fires away, and you take him out. The problem with him playing 30 minutes a game is the vast majority of plays he's standing around, waiting for a pass so he can heave a three, and doing nothing else. He can't create his own shot, and he doesn't really have any passing skills, so he serves no purpose if he's not on fire.

Meeks isn't a terrible defender. If anything, he's pretty solid.

He also only plays 26 minutes a game. The same as Evan Turner.

He's also a pretty good driver. He's good at using his speed to get into the lane and he can finish decently well.

Meeks is a terrible defender

tk76 reply to GoSixers on Jan 28 at 15:30

Meeks is not terrible. He is probably a bit below average. he gives effort and is in the right position, but top players can simply shake him and shoot over him. But top players can do that to most defenders.

The Sixers covered their biggest point spread as a favorite in 20 years when they beat Charlotte, 89-72, at home on Friday night. The Sixers went off as 15 1/2-point favorites — their biggest margin as a favorite in at least 20 years.

The Times' NBA blog notes, of us:

"There have been 38 teams in N.B.A. history with a point differential of at least plus-10.0 points a game through their first 18 games. The median winning percentage of those teams was .753, which translates to 49.7 wins over a 66-game season. Additionally, 24 of those teams advanced to the N.B.A. finals, with 19 claiming the championship."

On the other hand, there's the fact that we have perhaps the worst shot selection of any team in the league. We lead the league in shots taken from 10-15 (a shot just as bad as the long two, players on average are no more accurate from there than from farther out and neither are we), are third in long twos, and are 27th in attempts at the rim. We've been masking the poor selection with accuracy; we're third in the league in percentage of long twos made, a trend which I can't imagine will continue. We also lead the league in fg% at the rim, which seems more sustainable. We take 22% more long twos than shots at the rim, and 57% as many shots from 10-15 as shots at the rim - that is, we take 1.8 2-point jump shots for every attempted layup or dunk. Denver, by contrast, attempts 2 layups or dunks for every attempted 2-point jump shot, and the average team takes only 1.16 2-point jump shots per attempted layup or dunk. And even though we're so jump-shot happy, we're only 19th in threes attempted. Eddie Jordan himself couldn't design a more backwards offensive attack.

Yep, you can see most of that here. Their offense will come back down to earth if they keep up w/ this shot selection. Of course, by the same metrics, their defense is legitimately one of the best in the league (#3, behind ORL and PHO, oddly).

Their offense will come back to earth on the basis of their schedule. Opponents' composite record to date: 135-189, .417 (plus Wiz X 3). Have played only 6 teams with record above .500; 2 wins, 4 losses (no Granger, no Horford in Ws). Have played 11 HOME, 8 AWAY. Soft, soft beginning.

End of March standing will tell the tale of Sixers' actual measurement relative to league competition. If they were a stock on the market, time to sell is now. Collins sang the blues about tough Coast trip to start season, now he's carping about bearing too many home games. Yes, it's a hard life in the coal mines of the NBA.

There are actually 2 ways to look at these shooting numbers.

1. They most likely won't sustain their hot shooting and it will hurt them.


2. A team that plays good defense and can win games hitting long 2's and 3's at solid percentages is unbeatable. Look at last years's Mavs as a perfect example. They were head and shoulders better at long 2's than anyone else ( http://www.hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx?yr=2011&type=pg ) although they did attempt less than average. Basically, good teams will give you that shot. So when you hit is and mix in 3's then you are undefendable. It is easy to see when you look at individuals who hit long 2's at high percentage like Dirk, Melo, Kobe, old MJ, Bernard King etc. You can't stop that type of scorer becasue even when they "settle" for that shot they score. Mix that in with enough "good" shots and they get theirs without much work and without a legit way to slow them down.

With Jrue, Hawes, Voose, Brand, Meeks and Lavoy all able to hit 2's at good percentages it likely is sustainable if those guys get the right looks. The guys who can't really hit the long 2 are Iggy and ET (who are all under 40% this year and every year.) Thad and Lou are sort of average but are such good drivers they really should not settle either. So it is a matter of making sure the right guys are taking long 2's and cutting down the total by a few points.

Dirk takes about 8 long 2's a game and general hits at about 47%. This makes up half or more of his total attempts. And teams have no answer, because defenses are designed to concede that shot. So when the Mavs are in an offensive lull they know they can at worst "settle" for a 47% shot. Hit a few and the rest of the offense opens up,

ET, Iggy, Lou and Thad combine for 13 long 2's a game (hitting about 4.) If Collins can have each of these 4 players cut out 1 of these shots a game I would be fine with Jrue, Brand, Hawes, Meeks, Voose and Allen firing away.

Mavs aren't "perfect example" as Sixers have no player as heady and tough as Kidd to run the show nor do they have a dominant scorer like Dirk. And, even with a full, healthy roster available, legitimate big men still give Sixers fits. Rule of thumb, you don't win from the perimeter. Playoffs: Muscle Beach.

I'm not saying the Sixers are in the Mavs class or that one team is a blueprint for the other.

I am only saying that the Mavs had a good defense and won games shooting long 2's and mixing in 3's. As did OKC. I don't think that is really debatable.

I agree that those teams are contenders because they have superstars (and the Sixers won't be until they get some.) But Dirk and Durant are superstars because they hit long 2's at high percentages (and a bunch of other stars as well.) The Sixers offense has been successful for the same reason.

If you can beat a team by taking what the defense is giving you... then you are really hard to beat. It reminds me of when the West Coast offense first took off. Defense were willing to give up short passes if they took away the run and the long pass. A short pass was "bad offense" since it was harder to execute than a run and had low upside. But once you prove you can beat a team with short passes, then all of the sudden longer passes and bigger running holes open up.

To push the analogy- I think part of the problem is that long twos are boring, and many bad teams settle for long 2's. A drive/dunk is exciting. A 3pter is exciting. Hit a bunch of long 2's at a high clip is mostly frustrating (for the opposition.)

Short passes in football are boring. Winning with solid pitching while grinding out runs with a bunch of high OBP singles hitters is boring, And really bad teams tend to only have singles hitters or only have short passes... But the good teams that beat you this way are the most consistent ones- since you really can't take away that type of offense.

I'm not saying this is a perfect analogy. But I do think people have a knee jerk reaction in sports against things that are not Sportcenter worthy. People want to win with dunks, 3's, long passes and home runs. While short passes, singles and 15-20 foot jumpers lack any real appeal. But do those things efficiently and couple them with good defense and you have a low risk recipe for success.

My problem with your analogy is you are presuming Sixers will hit long 2s & 3s at a high clip against higher competition - - more talented, experienced players, more concerned and concerted defenses. I don't expect that to happen as season wears on. When the mystery (or indifference) stops, so does the magic.

Sixers are good with Doug's rote decision-making offensive scheme against laggards, much less so when operating on their own devices due to smart tactical pressures by their competitive motor equals.

We all know the crux of the game is about efficient play, not sensational highlights.

I think they will get the same number of open 2's against good teams- and likely hit those open looks at the same high percentage. Even good teams will concede midrange and long 2's.

The problem is that against good teams all they do is settle for those long shots and stop driving entirely. If 50% of there shots are open 2's and the other 1/2 are drives and 3's then you are good. If 50% are open 2's and 25% are contested 2's at the expense of less drives and poor ball movement then the entire offense sputters.

The whole point of being able to hit long 2's is to open up the rest of of your offense. They do this against bad teams but have not done it against good ones. I think the jury is still out on whether they will be able to improve their overall offense against good teams. The have not played enough quality opponents to conclude they won't be able to compete.

Seanzybillups on Jan 28 at 9:30

I heard a rumor that Sixers and Mavs are in talks to swap Iggy for Odom. Regardless of whether the rumor has any validity, what do you think? Adding Odom to Hawes, Brand, Voose, and Thad would certainly fortify our front court. But why fix what ain't broken. This team has chemistry which is often underrated. But on the other hand, I can't stand to see one more 4th-quarter-down-by-one-with-the-ball-and-ten-seconds play run for Iggy. I think that of anyone on this team, that play should be for Lou (See first round of the 2011 Playoffs) or Jrue.

Did you fall asleep 2 years ago and just woke up?

Seanzybillups reply to Xsago on Jan 28 at 10:59

Yes, It's called a coma....way to be sensitive to my catastrophic brain injury, jerk.

No way the Mavs do this. They are saving cap space for Howard/D-Will.

It's a horrible trade even when Lamar Odom wasn't sucking

The energy level is high when they are creating turnovers, getting defensive rebounds, and getting out on the break. The energy level drops when the other team doesn't turn the ball over and take stupid shots. Part of it is good defense, but it's also that the better teams don't take 20ft jumpers 5 seconds into the shot clock and allow the Sixers to get out on the break, or throw as many bad passes, or are as careless with the ball in general.

Sixers struggle to create in the halfcourt, which is what they are going to have to do to win in the playoffs. None of this is news. There are just a lot of really bad teams they've faced this season that play right into what the Sixers want to do, and they have gotten more consistent in being able to do that.

@tmoorepburbs ESPN announces it will now televise #Mavericks at #Sixers game Feb. 17

So the answer to whether or not ESPN can flex games seems to be yes, and it's about damn times

Can someone point me to a website that keeps track of points per shot or points per possession?

I actually think ESPN tracks points per shot in their regular statistics.

As for points per possession i know Brian uses Synergy, not sure where else you can find those stats.

Doesn't hoopdata do points per possession? Anyway, part of the issue with the long two is that it is a symptom of our diminished post players due to injury and deteriation in play. We have no low post threat. Brand is either cannily conserving his energy or is really on his last legs. He now takes more shots outside the paint than at the rim. His minutes and usage are at an all-time low. Hawes obviously has been hurt. Thad is not a post player so it stands to reason they have to derive their points from range. Their perimeter players are better than most so it works out but when they are matched at the 1-3 spots they are going to need to get more from the bigs and/or get to the rim.

They have a metric that takes turnover and assists into account. Go to a player page and click on game logs. They have points created, possessions used and points created per possession used. It's a pretty simple formula and I'm not crazy about how they weigh assists, but they do have it.

Brand now runs like Sonny Liston.

The good news is Thad, Iggy & Lou run like Tommie Smith, John Carlos & Lee Evans.

Other good news is that it requires more than 'running fast' or 'jumping high' to be a good basketball player, see Carney, Rodney

but when we start talking about the next game, well, it's at least a moderate cause for concern.

I don't believe the fourth quarter really is that much cause for concern.

For more than half the quarter you had 3 guys (then 4) who aren't really part of any rotation the sixers have in a game they want to win. Lavoy has been playing nicely but would he be playing at all if Hawes and voose were available (hell if even one of em was available)?

Nocioni and Brackins are garbage time players - despite all the preseason 'spin' about how much brackins improved - he's still a garbage time player and Nocioni is just on the roster cause his contract isn't done yet, so play him when it doesn't matter, maybe some team will be impressed. Elson was signed less than 12 hours before the game.

I don't think anything that happened in the fourth quarter is really of any note or concern, it's what happens in blowouts, in either direction

Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment