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Ending the Stand vs. the Clips

Tom's piece where Turner is essentially complaining about shots spurred me to do a little research. Here's a quick look at how the team does when Turner, Jrue and Thad take a certain amount of shots. Let's start with Turner:

0-11 FGA: 9 wins, 9 losses
12-14 FGA: 7 wins, 4 losses
15+ FGA: 6 wins, 14 losses

Thad:

0-11 FGA: 7 wins, 8 losses
12-14 FGA: 7 wins, 10 losses
15+ FGA: 6 wins, 8 losses

Jrue:
0-14 FGA: 5 wins, 8 losses
15-19 FGA: 8 wins, 11 losses
20+ FGA: 9 wins, 4 losses

(used a different split w/ Jrue because he didn't have many low games, here's the same split for him: 0-11: 1W, 2L; 12-14: 4W, 6L; 15+: 17W, 15L.)


Basic analysis. Keep Turner under 15 FGA. Get Jrue above 20 FGA. Thad's FGA aren't really a barometer for team success.

Just took a peek at the schedule, and the Sixers should be in luck. Assuming neither Thad nor Bynum returns before the end of the month, that's 7 games for the Sixers. Let's say they only win 2 of them (ORL and WAS, for example). That should be enough to keep them even with Milwaukee over the same stretch.

MIL plays Washington, then us. Then @BKY, BKY (b2b), ATL, @DAL, @HOU (b2b).

2-6 or 3-5 over that stretch is very likely. So they could be 2.5 to 3.5 games out of the playoffs on the first of March, hopefully with a nearly complete roster for the stretch run. Better if they can somehow pull a win or two out of their hats.

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Tray reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 13:27
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I would favor the Bucks to beat us, the Hawks, and the Wizards... and probably the Nets at home.

The Bucks have been in a slide recently. Lost 6 of 9, including losses to Detroit and Cleveland in there. I'll be surprised if they finish this stretch better than 3-5.

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Tray reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 14:01
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Most of the losses are what you'd expect from a .500 team (@DEN, @UTH, CHI, @NY). It's just a tough stretch of their schedule. As for Detroit, an okay team, they lost to them by 5 at home and beat them by 27 during this stretch at Detroit. And Cleveland's won 6 of its last 7 home games, including wins against the Hawks, Celtics and Thunder, so it's not a terrible thing for a .500 team to lose to them on the road by 5 right now. So I see no reason to think anything's the matter with Milwaukee; if anything I think they're better than the Skiles-coached team that wasn't using Ilyasova at all.

They were .500 under Skiles and they're 9-8 since. Not really a dramatic improvement.

And if the Sixers lost to the Cavs and the Pistons, at home, over any stretch we'd consider that a bad stretch of play. We'll see how they do tonight against your streaking Wizards. (who the Sixers beat easily with their best player in the lineup).

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Tray reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 13:47
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And I also would probably favor Washington to beat us at home. Even just looking at the two teams' records for the whole season, we're 6-15 on the road with our second best player; they're 11-14 at home without their best player for two thirds of the season. Since Wall returned 16 games ago, Washington's been a .500 team, and they've been 7-1 at home, with wins over the Nets, Knicks, Clippers, Bulls, and Thunder. So I think we'll probably be 1-6 over that stretch unless we beat Minnesota. They're 1-9 in their last ten games and are awful without Love, but part of that is a tough schedule; probably the worst team they lost to at home in this stretch was the Lakers. I'll pick us to go 1-6 and Milwaukee to go 4-3. By the time Bynum comes back, we'll be talking about how to strategically test his knees in game action while still tanking.

The Washington game is a back-to-back for the Sixers, day of rest for the Bullets.

Golden State, on the other hand, is on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Sixers are rested the night before. GSW is in the midst of a tough road trip for that game.

That's actually my mistake, though. Washington isn't in that stretch of games. They're the second game in March. The two wins I had were Orlando and the T-Wolves. I think 3 wins for the Sixers over that stretch is more likely than 1, personally. They've played pretty good ball recently and they tend to play up to their competition (Indy game notwithstanding).

My worry is that heading into the break we will be 5 back, and that will look like a mental steep hill to climb. If we lose both games this week, we'll be 5 back assuming Bucks beat Wiz tonight.

Yeah, that'll look worse than it is considering the schedules after the break. If they can pick up a win tomorrow night, that would be huge.

err, Wednesday night. Really, if they get either of these they should consider themselves extremely lucky heading into the break. Figure if they win either they head in 4 games back.

ugh. i'm off today. If they win tonight, they go in 4 games back (assuming MIL beats WAS). If they win on Weds, they go in 3 games back.

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MikeW reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 11:27
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Yeah Weds game is certainly the key.
Clips only -5 tonight.

If I was a betting man, I wouldn't be putting my money on the Sixers. Think if it's that close, they probably win. I'd take the money line :)

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Greg reply to MikeW on Feb 11 at 13:44
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Now shifted to 4 1/2. Sixers hardly ever lose by a couple points. Id go with the spread.

Hmmn. Wonder if they're expecting CP3 and/or Billups not to play.

i think i would leave jrue on CP3 and have him not chase crawford, think chris will cause more problems if hes getting into the paint

I'd probably do the same, but I think Collins is making an effort to move Jrue off the ball when he can defensively to save him. If we see Pargo/Jrue in the back court, I suspect Pargo will be on the ball at least until it goes horribly wrong.

I'm pretty sure Jrue didn't spend a second guarding Sessions the other night.

wasnt he guarding kemba?

Kemba and then Gordon when Kemba was out.

I think that Billups and CP3 are both around 50/50 given their comments last night.

So CP3 and Billups or Bledsoe and Willie Green. That might have an impact on the line.

Yeah it probably is the reason why the line is in limbo, however my guess is that at least CP3 plays. He's young enough to not need/want the extra rest.

I'd sit him if I was LAC. Need him 100% when the playoffs start, wouldn't push him in a 3g/4d situation immediately after coming back. Billups is washed up, imo. Of course, he'll probably drop 30 tonight now that I said that.

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MikeW reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 17:07
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My tweets to find out CP3 status have gone unanswered. Feel like we should know right about now.

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Tom Moore on Feb 11 at 19:02
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Sixers video: Bynum on experiencing pain in left knee:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AVQe5ouvno

barnes for butler, green for billups

nice start here guys

jrue to nick young for 3

nice pass jrue

when was the last time that Turner made a three?

January 26th vs the Knicks

so much for his "improved" shot

away broadcast on league pass?! to quote Brennan Huff after he was served salmon at his mom's wedding (he said TWICE he didn't want salmon): "this is bullshit."

seriously i need zu and malik.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:22
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Not only do I hope Turner gets all the damn shots he wants, but I hope he makes every single last one of them. Get yours brother. Showcase yourself please. Pretty please....

no one is taking him dude, there is a better chance of him making his way to the Doughouse soon and just not getting minutes anymore

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eddies' heady's reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 19:30
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I'm not too sure he's even allowed entry into the Doughouse is he? He's got to be the team leader in minutes, no? If not, maybe Jrue then, and he's second.

Minutes per game he is probably 2nd to Jrue, but I don't see how he can continue to get steady minutes if he keeps playing like this.

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eddies' heady's reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 19:33
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Well I guess my argument would be he's played like this a majority of the year and Doug's never hesitated to keep/trot him out there.

yep, kinda expected this

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:26
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And Evan commits a foul and slams the ball down to the floor in frustration. Somebody must have "hassled" him from the front row.

What are you talking about? Turner likes himself too much to let anyone negatively affect him.

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MCT reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 19:54
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well he's not a fucking internet troll, so he has that going for him, right?

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Tray reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 19:56
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Are you talking about me or eddie's or all of us?

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MCT reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 19:57
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you in this case...pretty much anyone who strays from basketball talk, makes me feel like I'm in the comments section of Philly.com

Then you don't know how to define what an internet troll is - and maybe you should just go play in your own sand box so you can create the rules?

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MCT reply to GoSixers on Feb 11 at 20:00
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off-topic messages are trolling

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Tray reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 20:00
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I would say that Turner's mentality and weird blend of insecurity/undeserved arrogance isn't just, like, a matter for gossip but possibly has an effect on his play, and hence is basketball talk.

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MCT reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 20:01
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didn't know you were a psychologist so I guess I take it back

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Tray reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 20:09
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Doesn't take a psychologist to see that the person who said the following is a little messed up:

“The other day, some guy was hassling me and he was like 500 pounds — he probably hadn’t run for like four years,” Turner said. “It was like, ‘Why are you hassling me? Just leave me alone.’ I like myself too much to let somebody negatively affect me.”

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MCT reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 20:20
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yeah that's some crazy shit right there, put that man in a straitjacket

I really didn't know how to react to that quote. The Clippers announcers were ripping into Turner last night a little bit.

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eddies' heady's reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 19:55
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Heh, but in the same breath he lends credence to the "hassler". "Why you hassling me man"?

Tom Moore ‏@tmoorepburbs

#Sixers #Bynum having pain in left knee, 'not sure' if still can play this month.

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MCT reply to Mike on Feb 11 at 19:30
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Fucking hysterical, he's going to play in maybe 10 games (if that) and someone will still throw a boat load of cash at him in the offseason.

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eddies' heady's reply to Mike on Feb 11 at 19:32
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Sure he can't. It's too many games left in the season at this point. Mid/End of March should be about right for a 15-20 game run to entice the offseason buyers.

Anyone who didn't see this coming, I have some ocean front property in Nevada to sell you

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Mike reply to Mike on Feb 11 at 19:40
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in the same interview (the link Tom posted), he also says, "Right now I think things are going pretty well, I'm losing weight and staying on the court as long as I can, so that's good"

very difficult to interpret what he says in these updates. he gives some conflicting statements, and doesn't seem to really be too concerned, but that may just be because he doesn't give a shit.

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eddies' heady's reply to Mike on Feb 11 at 19:41
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"but that may just be because he doesn't give a shit."

Exactly.

like that Moultrie on Griffin match-up!

jrue to hawes

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:36
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It's pretty amazing they're actually only down 8. Sure seemed like 15+.

jrue doing a good job of passing out of the double

That would be a good development if it's something he can mmaintain

i think he will, just needs to see it more often

Well he's seen double teams since he entered the league - handled them pretty badly - my biggest pet peeve with him

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:43
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Get the fucking rebounds!

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:49
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Pargo's 3rd foul, he had a lot of fouls on Saturday night too I think.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:51
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Come on Jrue, move the ball around man.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:53
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Heh, Evan points and tells Hawes where he should have been after Crawford's bucket.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:54
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Turner's antics are hilarious. Flails his arms in the air after getting a foul call that time.

They can't keep Turner on Crawford, he can't keep up with him

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 19:57
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Jrue forces another one when he had no shot. Blocked.

By the way, why did it take an injury to Thad to play our first-round draft pick? He seems to bring more to the table than several of our bigs.

Are you trying to tell Doug Collinns what to do? It's my understanding he's the dictator, I mean coach, for life

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Feb 11 at 20:05
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For that matter, why isn't he in the game now? Not only might he give us as much of a chance to win as playing Hawes or Lavoy does, we have no chance of winning this game anyway at this point.

oh evan hit a jumper

his trade value is soaring...

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:04
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Jrue loose with the damn ball, Griffin dunk on other end. ugh

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:07
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Seriously, Turner is going to go the eff on somebody if they say something going to or in the lockerroom. I've never seen him this frustrated. Annnndddd on cue, he goes off on himself as I was typing that after missing two shots, one in close at the rim and he wails out after it rims out. That guy needs some assistance. Hope he runs up on a Bahama Mama while on his vacation.

I expect a better 2nd half. Call me a glass half full kinda guy.

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johnrosz reply to joeykey on Feb 11 at 20:18
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I'd recommend finishing that one off and pouring yourself another...

yea john...this is BRUTAL

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buke reply to joeykey on Feb 11 at 20:22
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You're probably right since it's hard to imagine a worse half and the Clippers might slack off some.

Well that was pretty terrible

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:23
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Heh, Evan looked like Spencer on that flailing drive.

lavoy jumper

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:29
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Spencer is soooo weak. Ha and he walked before his clumsy move.

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Big Will on Feb 11 at 20:35
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God damnit. Spencer got posterized by Blake.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:37
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This game makes me even more sad that we don't have any bigs to lob to or get putback dunks like that Jordan one. Damn!

wow. Sixers gave up already. i keep watching because...i dont know why. but i do.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:39
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Nick called for an offensive foul on that 3 attempt? huh

Clippers' three best scorers are a combined 20-27.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:42
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That's some bullshit right there! Nick called for a foul because he 'kicked' his foot out on Barnes. Reggie Miller weeps.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:44
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The Clips swarming D being up 30 is very admirable.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:46
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Is anybody, somebody going to guard the damn rim?

Man does this feel like watching last year's phillies

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MCT reply to das411 on Feb 11 at 20:52
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I was thinking the Dana Barros led 1994-95 Sixers

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Tray reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 20:56
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That was actually a really great season, on Barros's part anyway. He averaged 20 and 7.5 with a .632 TS%. Shot 46% from three.

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MCT reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 21:00
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I just looked at his career numbers, they're much better than I thought they would be.

I remember he wanted to be a rapper and John Lucas said he was the only rapper he knew of that wore three-piece suits.

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buke reply to MCT on Feb 11 at 21:10
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I believe Barros made the all star team once when he was with the Sixers. He was likely their only all star during that awful period.

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Tray reply to buke on Feb 11 at 21:15
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Like I said, he had 20 and 7.5 assists on a .632 TS% that year. If he'd been close to that good the rest of his career he'd be a hall of famer.

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eddies' heady's on Feb 11 at 20:51
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Turner gets to play with the garbage time guys.

Pargo, Ivey, ET, Wilkins, Moultrie

If we were really exploring trading him, would we risk him getting injured in a 30-point blowout? Then again, maybe this is an attempt to showcase him.

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eddies' heady's reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 20:57
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Oh, I thought it was more of a risk of getting the rim injured.

haha nice

...why are the revolutionaries making fun of Ronny turiaf?

Meanwhile, in another NBA game, San Antonio is ahead of Chicago (at Chicago) by 9 pts. at half without Parker, Duncan, or Ginobilli playing. That franchise is amazing.

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Tray reply to buke on Feb 11 at 21:24
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They almost beat Miami at Miami with the same three guys out. What's a little surprising is that you'd think Green, Leonard, Bonner, Neal, and Mills would just jack up a lot of threes, but they've only made 3 so far.

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buke reply to Tray on Feb 11 at 21:49
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Popovich has nothing left to prove, but his team still continues to outperform expectations year after year. He should chuck all that for one great big challenge before he retires ---- let's say, like the Sixers.

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Stan reply to buke on Feb 12 at 19:15
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But they'll end up losing in the 2nd round to either Memphis, LAC, or OKC. I wouldn't even put money on the Spurs to beat Denver in a 7 game series.

I'd put money on the spurs making the WCF against the thunder (and probably losing)

Defense steps up in the playoffs, and while they are reporting 'injuries' I still think Pop is just resting guys without saying so so david stern doesn't get his panties in a bunch

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Stan reply to GoSixers on Feb 12 at 20:38
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They follow the same story line every year: Surprise everyone by getting the number one seed, crush a younger team in the 1st round, get crushed by a more accomplished team in the 2nd or 3rd round, have people question whether or not this team is good anymore, re-sign one of the big 3 to a decent but reasonable contract, acquire a decent player in the draft, repeat.

I love Popavich's coaching style, the innovativeness of their front office, and the discipline of their players, but I can't take that team seriously as a championship contender. They're simply stock piling as many wins as they can from their aging star players.

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Mike reply to Stan on Feb 13 at 6:59
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yea it's kind of weird that they have turned into an all-time great regular season team, but they don't have the big guns to handle superstars in the playoffs anymore.

I don't think it's about their lack of superstars. I think they were very unlucky in the playoffs and were victims of tough matchups. The NBA playoffs are all about matchups.

Oh yeah and a Duncan, Ginnobili, Parker trio is top 3 trio in the league (only Miami and maybe OKC have a better one).

Age has a lot to do with it. The Spurs really limit those guys in the regular season, in the playoffs, teams play their stars 40 minutes/game because there's so much rest. SAS can't really do that. They're too old.

And Boston's win streak ends with a loss to Charlotte; Mullens had 25 and 18.

Great night for me finishing up work and watching the flyers and sixers getting blown out back-to-back. And of course it only made sense that it was all preceded by the announcement that the Eagles are bringing back vick. Unbelievable...

Back to this game....This Clippers team is better than the sixers. Big deal. I don't care about that. I knew they would lose this one. But to just lay down and not even try??? I mean it's not like this Clippers team has won three straight championships for christ sake. This result (and effort) was so predictable and that's the worst part of this season. This team just quits. They are so soft and so passive. They really are a disgrace to the city. What a shame.

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johnrosz on Feb 11 at 22:06
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Hate to think the Sixers blew their young cheap assets on Bynum if the Harden deal was sitting out there just a few weeks later.

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Tray reply to johnrosz on Feb 11 at 22:39
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I can't see how we could've gotten Harden.

Pretty sure I won't recover from watching that by Weds. No chance they recover enough to play at MIL.

Wizards beat MIL tonight also

Heh. Red hot bullets.

larry sanders has been hurt, decent chance we see 30+ minutes of dalembert

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buke reply to Brian on Feb 11 at 22:37
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Tonight was the revenge of Willie Green. Wednesday will be the revenge of Dalembert. Well, look at the bright side. We no longer need to wonder what Damian Wilkins could do with more playing time.

Well on the bright side, mocks currently have us at 12 in the draft, with the safe assumption that we're going to pile on a bunch of additional losses we'll climb even more (that is under the impression that the mock draft goes by current record & not what they believe the team's season ending record will be), Shabazz, mclemore, n Noel look like high potential players all in positions we could use. My 3 personal favorites anyway.

those 3 players are probably going in the top 5, dont think the sixers will get there unless they get lucky in the lottery

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Javier reply to sixerfan1220 on Feb 11 at 23:31
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YEAH long shot, but hopeful wishing..never know basketball gods may bless us, or some teams may make questionable picks, wouldn't be a first, fingers crossed

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buke reply to Javier on Feb 11 at 23:44
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What is remarkable is that the Sixers are not listed higher on mock drafts. Hard to believe that the Sixers are only the 12th worst team in the NBA. Maybe I have amnesia but this team seems worse to me than the Eddie Jordan team. Maybe there just are an unusually high number of teams this year that are worse than the Eddie Jordan team.

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Javier reply to buke on Feb 11 at 23:59
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Yeah I know what you mean honestly don't mean to be overly critical, I have that perception too seems like were way worse then or record indicates.. Think it's because of how painfully & unbelievably bad our team has played, specifically Turner & also the painful high disappointment the Bynum trade has ended up being thus far. Was an optimistic beginning which has turned painfully bleak.. Main reason for me it seems even worse than it actually is.. Plus some teams with more current talent than us like wizards n hornets are above us in mock draft actually have worse records.

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Javier reply to Javier on Feb 12 at 0:07
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SORRY for errors on phone, but yeah just been a highly draining & painful disappointment. slow motion, dragged out train wreckofaa season.

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Tray reply to Javier on Feb 12 at 1:05
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I think it's because we actually are worse than our record. Given our scoring margin, a statistician would expect us to be 19-32 and 8th worst in the league.

The game could not have gone any worse. And if Bynum has indeed suffered a setback and he won't be back until early March, i honestly don't think they have a realistic shot at the playoffs, unless the teams ahead of them blow it all up (Milwaukee, Boston and Atlanta are all rumored of shipping away their best players).

Also i think by now it's pretty obvious how important Thad is to the team. And everyone asking for him to be traded, just stop. The team is barely watchable without him.

Lets assume for a second that Bynum is damaged to the point where he shouldn't be resigned. What should the Sixers do next? Completely tank, rebuild via free agency or maybe get creative with trades?

Would you guys do this?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=anvwyo2

I would love for this to happen, even though, on paper this would be a team stuck in mediocrity. I think the resulting team would be full of assets, reasonably young players and great cap situation going forward.

How good a lineup of Jrue/Dudley/Hayward/Young/Gortat would be tough?

Utah would be better off just letting Jefferson expire than doing something like that.

They need major help on the wings and they are probably the only team in the league where Turner would be a perfect fit. Turner, Young and Wright are a major improvement over what they actually have on the wings (Williams, Foye, Burks...) and they could thrive with players like Favors, Kanter and Millsap inside.

Phoenix and Utah are reportedly already in talks regarding some kind of a Jefferson trade anyways. And i've seen Hayward in trade scenarios involving Jefferson too.

Hayward's better than Turner. Maybe they'd want Turner to run the point for them. I don't see it, though.

For us, though. Eh. Don't think that lineup is as good as last year's team and you're locked into it.

Well, i think the cap is very manageable and none of the players is signed to a bad contract. I see them all as assets. I don't think that team would be great but i can easily see them as a 45-47 win team. And with all those assets they'd be well positioned to either get someone in free agency in the subsequent years or make a trade for a star. Actually i see the team in a similar situation to what the Nuggets have been doing over the past few years.

funny/sad how this Denver team is already the best team Iguodala's been on his entire career

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MikeW reply to Mike on Feb 12 at 12:08
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Although he's not exactly taking a gigantic part in the success

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Mike reply to MikeW on Feb 12 at 13:30
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how so? he's playing 34 mins a game.

POINTZZZZZZZZZ

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Mike reply to GoSixers on Feb 12 at 14:30
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lol


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