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The Twolves and a Plan

evan needs to pay very close attention to corey brewer leak outs and always be near him

and maybe find a way to get martin stuck on evan and see if he can attack him

Look at Brian being all optimistic thinking Kevin Love would come play in Philadlephia when the Lakers will probably welcome him home with open arms, cash, and weather

Kobe will still be there making $28M/year, right?

But as of now that's all they have comitted - i bet they stand pat this off season

Your dream lineup has great athletes and defenders but I think it is a bit weak in trms of scorers/shooters. Having a PF with range like Love will help, but I still think you need either a wing who is a high volume scorer or a big who is a dominant scorer in the post.

...because that is how you win close games in the 4th qtr and the playoffs when the defense is really denying.

I belive in his plan wiggins was going to be that high volume scorer?

Agree they'd need another shooter on the floor. Assuming Wiggins would provide the wing scoring, and hopefully the shooting as well.

brian, I woke up this morning and starting thinking of Noel at 4 and Embiid at 5.

What are your thoughts on them teaching Noel how to shoot well enough that he turns into a very poor man's Garnett. He is quick enough to defend the 4's, for sure.

After watching Hibbert last night, I am worried that Noel will ever be able to hold his own down low. Then you start thinking about Drummond and some other young bigs in the East.

I don't think you go into a draft expecting someone you already have to become someone he isn't. If Noel develops a consistent jump shot? Okay. But using an asset that high by *expecting* him to develop a consistent jump shot? Risky to me, unless you have Embiid ranked considerably higher than others around him.

Yeah, I agree with this. I do think Noel is a piece for the future, but don't think you can bank on him being anything more than a great finisher and really strong defender. If he does eclipse that level, great, but you build based on what you know, not what you hope.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 11 at 19:02
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On the other hand, if we really loved Embiid couldn't we trade Noel after he played a few months? If we picked fourth, he could easily be the best player available.

To me, you would have to believe he has franchise-level player in order to trade Noel (probably at the lowest point of his value graph) and use the 4th pick on an asset that you already somewhat have filled.

I'll be at the game cheering for the Sixers. I'll try to keep it subdued so people don't mistake me for a crazy person.

The temp is -2 right now (-18 with the wind chill), but it should drop a few degrees by game time. Maybe the cold air will invigorate the Sixers.

I often miss living in Madison

Today ain't one of those days :)

Plumbers and Acetylene torches must be treated like royalty in your state.

Kevin Love is going to 27 and not interested in playing with guys who are 6 years younger than him. I bet he goes somewhere like NY or LA.

Speaking of college basketball, does anyone like it? I've been watching more games lately and it seems like 90% of the offense in CBB is passing the ball around the perimeter until someone decides to take a jump shot. It's really frustrating. They don't execute well, they make careless turnovers, and a lot of times these players look like they don't know what to do when they have the ball in their hands. I don't know why people say CBB is better than pro basketball.

They're younger, less experienced than the NBA, there's talent dilution and MOST rosters have at most 2 NBA rotation players (or better)...the 3 point line is too close, the zone is more prevalent.

I have no preference either way - but there are those who prefer college basketball cause they say it's more 'pure' (which is a load of horse manure - college ball is as much about money as pro ball - just for different people)

I think you can make the case to Love if everything works out in this year's draft. If they get Wiggins and another piece, then those young guys get a year to play together, then they've got their entire core on rookie contracts, and a ton of cap space. they could max out love and still afford a couple more pieces, or one big piece that summer.

LA is obviously an impediment to getting any superstar, but my bet is they waste their money this summer on Melo. Also, think the Lakers have lost their luster to a certain extent. Howard was the first to shun them, won't be the last.

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Stan reply to Brian on Dec 11 at 15:29
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It will be tough. Love has a player option in 2015. So not only do the Sixers have to be lucky enough to draft these players but they also have to establish themselves as a good team. Lebron and Durant didn't make the playoffs in their rookie years. Michael Jordan and the Bulls only won 38 games in their first year together. Love might see the Sixers as a team he would waste 2-3 years of him prime on.

I know GoSixers will disagree but I still think playing in LA or NY makes a player more marketable. It doesn't matter for a guy like Lebron or Durant but a 2nd tier guy can be more well-known. I think Love is someone who can thrive in that market, he is very well spoken and has a good personality.

Other teams that Love could consider other than LA are Houston and Chicago.

Anyway, I think Love will get traded to his next team. He's going to want that 5 year max contract.

if you get Wiggins and he shows he's on the road to being a stud (which most studs do in their rookie seasons), I think you can sell him on coming to Philly. Anyway, there's a ton that would have to happen before we get to Love's free agency anyway. If it gets to that point, the only concern I'd have is him wanted to go back to the left coast. If I was selling Philly, I'd tell him the fans would treat him like the second coming. They've always wanted a good white player to cheer for.

So - one of your selling points would be racism?

I'd probably leave the white out of that last sentence when selling him.

"They've always wanted a good white player to cheer for."

Above, one New Yorker speaking on behalf of the city of Philadelphia.

Brian, project much?

Like any region of fans, Philadelphia wants to watch talented players give their all. Billy Cunningham, Doug Collins and Bobby Jones were no more embraced than Hal, Wilt, Chet, Luke, Wally, Dr. J, Moses, Maurice, etc. Your boy Iguodala wasn't especially appreciated because he carried an aloof, big timer attitude with a flawed tier II game. Early on, moaned a lot at refs like Turner. Later, the tier I contract [nice goin', Ed - that remains a classic example of painting into a corner] didn't help his popularity. It's not reason to be bitter.

The slurring color notion you raised is more dated, convenient and unrepresentative than Santa Claus and snowballs at the Vet.

Wilbert Montgomery, another quiet, reflective guy who passed through, is well-respected in this town because he didn't hold himself above the fans, didn't make excuses and clearly demonstrated that he was all in for his team, had his heart and mind in the right place, paid the price of glory.

This city's fans know pretense when they see it and respond accordingly. Genuine 'punch the clock' athletes are well-received in the City of Brotherly Love. Mercenaries, less so.

Seems like the New Yorker speaking for Philadelphia has a better grasp on the racial history of the city than you do...no big surprise...big RIzzo supporter were you?

You talk in liberal riddles from la-la land. Where's your beef? Address the subject with substance. Or continue your game of rubber darts.

I address you with as much substance as you provide...provide substance as opposed to the babble of the insane and maybe you'll get some.

"Babble" surely gets under your skin, provokes kneejerk censuring replies, including adolecent insults. Something doesn't add up. Why rail against fluff?

'Truth is like a caged lion. Let it out and it defends itself.'

sp correction: 'adolescent'

Question. What chances would you (Brian, commenters) give to the following three outcomes for Wiggins:

A. Generational superstar (like a LeBron, Durant, T-Mac at his absolute prime)

B. Viable #1 option on a contender if you give him some really elite second option or defensive players to work with (Dirk, George, Drexler, Wade, Grant Hill, Pierce, maybe Melo)

C. Great athlete who's a second option at best on a contender or an overextended first option on a non-contending team - Rudy Gay in Memphis before he fell off a cliff, arguably Melo, Carter, Pippen (to name four players who have extremely little in common besides fitting this description).

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 20%
D) 5% (less than C)

Just spitballing, in the most inexact way.

That already seems down from where the hype was, at least, before his season started. Why is your estimate for C so low? In the college games I've seen him play, he doesn't seem to desire to shoot the ball a lot, and when he does, all I'm really seeing now is great athleticism in the open court, good range, and very occasionally some nice move in between those two extremes. Maybe that was true of a lot of superstars at his age, but it probably also was true of a lot of non-superstars at his age as well, so what is it about Wiggins that gives him a 75% chance of at least being a capable first option on a contender? And I'm really asking, not arguing with you, you're the scout.

That's about what I would have said before the season.

I think what you described, not asserting himself, only showing ability to create occasionally, is more of a symptom of how incredibly young he is rather than a lack of skill, work ethic, and mental makeup. You can already see it in flashes. He single-handedly brought Kansas back against Florida the other night.

Mostly with an outside shooting spree, right? It isn't nothing, but I would like to see him make plays that Terrence Ross can't make.

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 20%
D) 10%

Something like that. He has everything physically to be A, how hard he works and the situation he winds up in will determine where he winds up.

I absolutely agree that bringing Love in as a free agent is probably the best case scenario going forward. I also think that MCW/athletes/Love/Noel is a perfect lineup for the modern NBA on both ends of the floor. This has been my dream scenario for a while. The only thing i slightly disagree with is the actual choices.

I'm not sold on Vonleh developing into an effective SF. I like him as a prospect but he'd be better as a PF long term IMO.

Wiggins is the perfect player for the plan, i absolutely agree with it. He can be one of those athletic wings. The other will have to be a long athletic 3 and D type. Nothing flashy. Someone like Danny Green for example. Btw, i think Wiggins most likely future is as a Paul George type of player, which is not bad at all. That's a top 5 player in the NBA.

With this dream lineup, positions really don't matter. Vonleh is 6'8" with a 7'4" wingspan and he can move. I just want a bunch of athletes with measurements like that and a desire to defend. I think w/ those four guys, man, you could swarm and smother anyone. Get in the open floor and let Love get wide open looks from three as the trailer :)

are Thad and/or 00 part of this platonic ideal team?

Nope.

I get all of that and i'm all for it. But it's not all about defense. The only difference is, i think you need 3-4 legit above average 3 point shooters on the court at any point in time in the game in the modern NBA to have an elite offense. And at least one of them really needs to be deadly at a high volume of attempts. I'm not sure any of them is/can become deadly from three point range. I feel like for example

a MCW/Green/Wiggins/Love/Noel lineup is a better overall lineup than a MCW/Wiggins/Vonleh/Love/Noel lineup.

Of course this is projecting too far out and we have no idea what kind of players some of these guys will become, but it's more about what kind of team is better overall not about the names.

btw, here's what I think will happen:

They get the #6 pick, take Marcus Smart. Trade the #13 pick for a future #1 and a couple of #2's. Turner signs his qualifying offer when no one else offers him big money. We spend next year rooting for losses while Smart and MCW argue about who's the PG and Turner continues to fuck chickens to get contested 17-footers off.

There's the bitter jaded one

Come on - they have a new GM - give him more credit than that

Eh. I could totally see him trading the second 1st rounder for a future first and some seconds. And he'd also take Smart regardless of fit, if he thought he was the best available. Which might be the right approach. This is more me being pessimistic that they'll get a top pick.

I'm not as pessimistic as you are :) But i'm not optimistic in the way others might be.

This is what i think will happen:

They get the 4th pick in the draft and take Exum. They use the assets from the Hawes and Turner trades (and maybe some other second rounders and young players) to move up 3-4 spots from the Pelicans pick to 6-7 and draft Aaron Gordon.

Next year they go with a lineup of MCW/Exum/Gordon/Noel/a stop gap center acquired via trade or free agency (Hawes would actually work if they kept him). Gordon and Noel will not necessarily be SF and PF long term (especially Noel) but they'll play them there in their first season. If they keeo Young he might be the other front court player, but it's hard to project what happens with Young at the moment. With guys like Thompson and some other FA signings, the bench will be much better (but they'll keep financial flexibility). They will try to win games and will ultimately win 35-40 games. Whether that will be enough to make the playoffs will depend on the other teams.

Exum would have to be able to shoot for that lineup to have any shot at 35 wins.

It would be cool to have two interchangeable big guards out there, but not that cool if neither can shoot.

I didn't realize the Sixers had signed all their bench guys to 4-year, non-guaranteed deals. It's the like the opposite of the Lavoy Allen approach. Smart. Not sure why their agents would allow them to sign 4-year minimum deals w/out guarantees, but really good for the team if one of them pans out.

Cause no one else was going to give them anything but one year :)

im expecting to lose by 30 so lets see if they surprise me

nice outlet from hawes to wroten

love tip in

nice euro step from wroten

nice pass from evan to thad

keep running

2 fouls on thompson

in comes anderson

thad jumper

kevin martin splits the free throws

thad foot on the line

live with the rubio jumpers

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:25
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Lazy pass from Turner, flat out lazy and careless.

Turner turned it over four times in the first nine minutes. Amazing.

et long 2

anderson floater

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:30
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Anderson finishes off a nice curl.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:30
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Elliot 3.

williams 3! 9-0 run

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:31
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Zo steal and finish.

anderson 3!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:31
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Anderson catch and shoot 3!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:32
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Great fucking draw and dish from Zo there.

Put Turner back in, coach.

up 19 end of the first

keep attacking

dont have lavoy post up on pek

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:39
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Bad pass Anderson. Turner the Tanker back in for him.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:46
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ET 3 from straight away!

et top of the key 3!

good drive by wroten

sissy jumper

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:52
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Why was Hawes on Love there? And Thad on Pek?

sissy 3!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:52
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Hawes 3!

3 on wroten

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:53
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Zo blocks a Rubio 3, ugh then Rubio gets bailed out by the ref on a bullshit call on a desperation heave from 3 from Rubio again. BS man!!

thompson long 2

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:55
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Hollis bad jumper falls. Contested.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:56
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Thad take.

thad goes right by pek

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:56
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Thad steal from Pek. Zo with another nice drop-off to Hawes for the and-one!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 20:57
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A lot to go, but they're going to win this game. No way they give this lead back with the energy they're displaying tonight.

great rotations leads to a shot clock violation

stop trying to post up pek

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:02
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Spencer with a trailing 3 off a drive and kick back from Zo. Brown has played well.

3 on brown

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:04
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Ugh, bad pass from Zo to Hawes flaring out for a 3 out of a timeout.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:05
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Turnerover.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:06
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Turner fouls Love and they give back 4 pts with under a minute left, all on Love freebies.

up 13 at the half

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:07
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That way too early prediction might be on hold. Depending on how they start the first 4 mins of the 3rd. That will be key.

Oh come on - are you kidding me - can't anything go right for this franchise - they stink on the road - oh right - i forgot about kevin martin

early timeout for the sixers

bad shot thad

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:25
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Turnerover off his foot.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:25
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Wroten with a funky shot that banks in.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:26
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Hawes with a sloppy bad shot. Selfish mess.

ET airballs a 3 from the corner, heh.

nice play by hawes who hits the basket stand hard

forces the jump ball

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:27
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Hollis push off foul. About as bad a start as they could have here.

multiple sixers pushing foul trouble

sissy travel

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:29
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Travel on Hawes. Pull the starters coach.

love 3

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:30
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Well, down to 3 now. That was quick.

Anderson answers a Love 3 with one of his own.

4 on wroten

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:30
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Wroten and Hollis with 4 fouls each.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:31
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Turner bricks a wide open 3.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:31
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Wroten tries to take it 1 on 3 and turns it over.

thad running hook

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:32
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Thad floater.

sissy block to an anderson dunk

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:32
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Anderson throwdown!

After a Hawes block on other end.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:33
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Brett Brown said he wanted to run more in this half, Sixers getting out on the break last 2 possessions.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:34
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Um, who was supposed to be on Martin there? Anderson maybe?

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:34
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Wroten was hit on the hand on that 3 pt attempt. No call.

nice pass from anderson to wroten

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:38
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Heh Hawes.

sissy floater!

back up 10

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:39
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Late rotations end in a Brewer 3.

Now a turnover before crossing midcourt? ugh

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:39
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Wroten takes a bad 3.

bad shot wroten

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:40
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Thad is getting some bull calls here on those last two.

Hey Brian
How's this for your recruiting poster?

"If we lost, I couldn't go out the next day," Iguodala said. "I couldn't walk outside. I would walk down the street and get 'Fuck you' all the time. People are always focused on what you don't do all the time. 'Why don't you do this, why don't you do that?' Maurice Cheeks was a great coach because he said, 'You got here because you do what you do. Do what you do well. Don't let nobody tell you what you can't do.'

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 11 at 21:47
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I think the message of that article was actually that so long as you're a scorer Philly fans will like you.

Smallwood is a douche

That is all

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 11 at 22:09
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Hopefully no one we talk to in free agency is so thin-skinned that they won't come here over Smallwood. But yeah, absolutely. I did think the piece was a little unfair to the average Sixers fan. Some of them had pretty stupid opinions of Iguodala, but others appreciated what he did while still being disappointed, reasonably, that he never became much of a scorer after we gave him all this money to be one.

Very few appreciated what he did - the 'average' fan is a moron

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 11 at 22:38
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They also kind of made it seem as if he was victimized by this huge contract he got, and the unreasonable expectations it generated. It's not like he had to extend with us; he could have gone somewhere else to be his true Pippenesque self had he wanted to. In fact, he might have stayed here forever had we not traded him. And when we did trade him, he said in interviews that we hadn't used him properly and that he would blow up in a real offense. That was only a year ago.* Now he's saying that this is the kind of role he always wanted. It's just a little revisionist.

* "Iguodala has made it clear that, in his mind, he's capable of doing more offensively; he just hasn't been asked to.

"Once again, you get that perception that you're just a defender, you're just an athlete, blah, blah, blah," Iguodala said. "I think that's what the perception was based on my last two years in Philly because I was the faciliator. They didn't want me to go out there and get 20-25 (per game) because when I got that, they said we couldn't win."

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/20537224/is-the-world-ready-for-andre-iguodala

He was burdened with unrealistic expectations because of his big contract - because for some reason unreasonable 'average' fans (morons) felt that because he was now making more money he should now do things that weren't natural to his game or ability.

He was the best all around basketball player every year he was here (yes all around - iverson was the best scorer maybe but iverson might be one of the more overrated 'super stars' in the history of sports) and he was never given the credit by the majority of the fans, the media (who seemed to have a special natural hatred for him especially those unbelieevable influential idiots on the radio) and his own organization.

My favorite sixer since the hey day of the 1983 roster.

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 11 at 23:08
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It's not so unreasonable. The front office gave him an $80 million contract because they thought he could become a legitimate scorer, even a first option, not just because he was a great defender and passer. So the fans expected and hoped he would become a legitimate scorer, because the front office and coaches and basketball writers said he could become one. Then he didn't. So they were understandably disappointed. I don't see what's dumb about being disappointed that a player doesn't develop into the sort of player that his own front office thought he'd develop into. I could see your point if the front office made some huge mistake that everyone but them saw at the time; then we should just be mad at them, not the player. But it wasn't at all obvious at the time that Iguodala would never be a respectable first option. The writer of this blog used to argue that you could contend with Iguodala as your best player, and every time he had a hot month he was supposedly turning the corner offensively. No one thinks he's anything more than a third option now. Realizing that was legitimately and reasonably disappointing.

Ugh, has it gotten so bleak that we have to rehash arguments from four years ago?

Iguodala lived up to his contract here. I'm not sure why scoring is the only measurement of worth, even for someone like you who I know has a grasp of advanced metrics.

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Gosixers reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 8:57
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Average fans. Points good.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:41
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Turnerover, steps on the endline.

hawes to lavoy

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:42
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Good pass Spencer to Lavoy, small window to fit that pass in.

that block looked clean

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:42
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Hawes is called for a questionable foul. May have got him with the body after he had already swatted the shot.

rubio 3 tied game

sissy 3!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:46
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Tie game. I have no idea besides the 19 turnovers how we are tied in this game. We're shooting damn near 60% and and 43% from deep.

Well, they have 9 more offensive rebounds than us, there are all those turnovers, as a result they've taken way more shots and free-throws, and they've gotten to the line at a way higher rate... for some reason. Love and Rubio are fairly gifted foul-drawers, our players are not, home whistles, etc.

dont think that counts

up 3 end of the 3rd

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:48
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That was an over the back on Cunningham there.

The foul calls sure went the Wolves way in that quarter, maybe that has something to do with it.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:50
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No one's getting to the line for us. That needs to change here down the stretch.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:54
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Wonder why Orton fell out of the rotation. Thought he had played half decent when Hawes was out a few weeks back.

nice pass lavoy

thomnpson and 1!

made the ft

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:55
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Davies was fouled there!!!! Blow the fucking whistle.

pek putback

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:56
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Now Lo Brown gets a bullshit charge call. Cunningham was not set there. This is bull.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:57
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Worst officiated game of this year so far. That 3rd quarter was an abomination. Continuing so far here in the 4th.

Perhaps the refs want to help us get a good pick.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 21:59
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Lavoy won't box out and then guns a duece. Despise that guy.

Annnddd he leaves his man for a 3. Great job.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:00
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Lost the lead.

Lavoy takes a bad contested lefty hook. They score on other end. Timeout.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:04
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Wroten follows his miss.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:04
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Hawes with what looked to be another questionable call. May have got him on the forearm though.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:08
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Turnerover, he's headed for a double-double of pts and turnovers.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:08
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Wroten to the line, in the penalty with 4 and a half left.

wroten splits the free throws

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:09
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Hawes to the line.

refs let everything go all game

randomly tighten up in the 4th

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:11
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Hawes triple!

sissy 3!

down 2

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:11
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Turner rims out a 3, hasn't scored in this half.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:15
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Turnerover, travel. Ballgame.

25 turnovers!

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:16
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61 pts in the 1st half

33 so far in the 2nd half

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:16
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Who was that turnover on? Camera didn't show it.

the bad inbounds pass?

thad

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eddies' heady's reply to sixerfan1220 on Dec 11 at 22:19
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thanks thought Turner might have had his 10th

Just got home. Looks like I missed a gem by Turner.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 11 at 22:41
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Like watching Adam Eaton pitch for the Phillies in his prime.

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:21
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Said it the other night, but Turner has pretty much solidified (reduced) his trade value to sign and trade in the offseason. Who would want the guy?

You think too highly of him

If someone offers him the mid level exception I'd be impressed

lost by 7

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eddies' heady's on Dec 11 at 22:23
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Never thought they'd give back that 19 pt lead, much less add 7 more to it. ugh

Dug themselves a hole in the first period but came through with a big, big loss!

Knicks collapsing late. Argh.

The announcers keep giving carmelo a pass - but i just saw him try and take a shot int he lane - triple teamed with that italian guy WIDE OPEN on the 3 point line in peripheral vision range

Sixers currently 3rd in worst point differential - only have two more wins than Milwaukee and Utah - Sixers with the worst last 10 record of the bunch

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Tray reply to GoSixers on Dec 12 at 10:21
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Recent trends are really promising. We are also playing without the Rookie of the Year, though.

I have a feeling he will miraculously get healthy around the 15th of December :)

The downward trend line of the point differential has been steady with or without the rookie of the month.

I believe the key to the 'positive' tanking trend is one Evan Turner reverting to form

I honestly don't think differential matters at all. Yes, it tells us how bad a really is, but that's not how they decide how many ping pong balls you get. They can't keep stealing close games. People point to overtime wins as nothing to worry about, but that's exactly what we should be worrying about. You can't erase wins, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat is what's going to land us with the #6 pick.

I think the trend matters indicating that they're 'losing bigger' and more - and that the beginning of the season becomes more and more illusion than anything else.

You talk about snatching victory from the jaws of defeat but then there are games like last night where they did the opposite. Maybe they win if Carter-Williams is playing, but as long as Evan Turner is on the sixers I'm confident that no sixer lead is safe

Turner worries me because he's capable of having games where he's hitting all those terrible shots. So in the long view, yes, he's killing the team, but he's capable of helping them steal wins, maybe one a month, and those add up. I'm not paying attention to differential at all, I know they're a bad team. I'm just nervously watching the win total tick up.

They have the third 'lowest' win total in the league and are only two games ahead of the 'best' worst team in the win column.

That Same Turner you are talking about is more likely to cause losses in games they maybe should have won cause his shots aren't falling.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 14:57
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I'm paying attention to the differential, because it's probably a better predictor of how we'll do over the next 60 games than our record. Granted, our wins are baked in, so I don't think that the differential predicts what our record will be for the whole 82-game season; it's not like we're "due" to regress to our pythagorean standings (which we're not actually far ahead of, the real problem is a lot of teams are way behind theirs). But I think it does predict that we'll be a bottom three team over the next 60 games, so if you stack that on top of where we are now (#5 and falling), factor in that one of the four teams we trail is the Knicks, and that Sacramento pre-Gay "should" have been a .400 team although who knows about post-Gay, I think what you get is us at about #3 or #4. And maybe more like two to three, because Utah's only 2.5 games ahead of us, has gotten a lot better with Burke (4-3 in their last 7, 1-16 before that), and is about to see their schedule get much softer.

My point about the differential is that, yes, on most nights they're going to get blown away, but I worry that they have won/will continue to win too many of the games they're actually close in. Last night is a good example, they easily could've won a game they had no business winning (based on talent level, and differential). I guess I'm saying they have the opposite problem of the teams we've watched for the better part of a decade, they're good in close games. If MCW plays last night, they win that game pretty easily.

They'll probably finish w/ the worst differential, or at least bottom three, but winning 5-7 close games they shouldn't have won could move them from #2 or #3 to #5 or #6.

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Rich reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 15:18
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It is an interesting phenomenon, huh? The Sixers have won their share of close games even though they've generally been a really bad team. I would've liked to see Brett Brown running crunch time stuff with the Jrue-Iggy-Lou-EB teams. May not have made a huge difference, but I'd still like to see it.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 15:19
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Well, we have won some overtime games, but we're only a win ahead of where our differential predicts we'll be, so I don't see that this whole overachievement theory is actually playing out. I guess you could argue that over the full season that could multiply out to 3 or 4 wins. But it seems to me that our bigger problem as far as the differential not translating into real standings is that Sacramento "should" be 8-12 and is 6-14, Orlando should be 8-14 and is 7-15, Toronto should be 9-11 and is 7-13. Is that just random and likely to change, or are they really bad in close games? I don't know.

Stein and Wojnarowski say the Knicks are trying to make a deal work with Toronto for Lowry. They would give them Felton's contract, and Toronto would obviously get a lot worse on account of going from a good defensive point guard to a sieve-like one (Vasquez).

Vasquez might really help them on the offensive end, though. Not sure that's so much of a downgrade, Lowry isn't much of a distributor.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 15:37
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He is averaging 6.8 assists and almost 15 points a game on a solid .563 TS%. I think my best argument that they'll get worse would be that they were a lot worse with Calderon on the court last year than Lowry, even though Calderon's a better passer. Calderon and Vasquez are similar sorts of players, and Calderon's a much better shooter. And looking at some sans-Gay lineups with Lowry in them, there are some pretty nice ones. DeRozan, Fields, Lowry, Jonas, and Johnson have an offensive rating of 113. If you sub Ross in for Fields, that drops to 110. I believe one or the other will be the starting lineup until Lowry's gone.

Possibly, we'll see.

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Tray reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 17:01
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Well so far in two post-trade games, in which they didn't have Vasquez, they beat the Lakers convincingly and lost to the Spurs convincingly. But in both their offensive rating was 110 flat, which fits how they were doing with Gay on the bench before he got traded. I think Ujiri wants to tank, he has metrics at his disposal that are a lot more sophisticated than what we have access to, and if he's aggressively shopping Lowry, he probably has some good tanking-related reason for it. Ultimately though, I think they'll still be too good for a top 3 pick unless they move DeRozan too.

That rumor reeks of the Knicks camp floating out what little scraps they have to offer from that dump. Ujiri does seem to be opening the books up for a 2015 so the contracts do work in that context but I don't see it happening without Shumpert going to Toronto.

I think in general, point differential is a much better predictor of future success than win-loss record. That means having a bottom 3 point differential probably means the team will be winning games the rest of the season (assuming no roster changes) at the rate of a bottom 3 team. In the end everything points out the Sixers finishing as a bottom 3-4 team.

Also, very rarely the team's actual win-loss record differs from the expected record by more than 3-4 games in either way. So even f they outperform their expected record, they won't outperform it by a ton. And at this rate the Sixers have a very good chance of finishing with the worst point differential in the league, especially if Hawes gets traded soon. What i am saying is while you are afraid that those OT wins might take the team from 3rd-4th to 6th, i think it's more likely that they will take it from 1st-2nd to 3rd-4th if it actually happens, which is still within the range of satisfying results.

3-4 wins could easily be the difference between 3rd and 6th. It's a race to the bottom this season.

This is such a unique situation, like a science project. "We have a year to take this raw athlete and mold him into a basketball player." Really interested to see how it all turns out. He does look much bigger there. I'd love an in-depth story on his workouts. "His guide hand will not touch the ball until after Christmas." Wish they'd done that with Turner, maybe MCW as well (I'm convinced his left is involved in his jumper sometimes).

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Mike reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 11:26
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there was a short video on NBA TV that detailed his offseason workouts. looked like it was pretty focused on core strength. think i read something by Cooney or Pompey recently about them too i'll try to find it. Cooney's getting a little better now imo that he's not so influenced by his boner for Doug Collins.

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Stan reply to Mike on Dec 12 at 11:46
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It says that Noel is 228 lbs. Draftexpress had him listed at 206 last summer. 206 is a very disturbing number for a 7 footer.

Yeah, think I read at the time the 206 was a result of not being able to work out at all for months due to the injury.

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Stan reply to Brian on Dec 12 at 14:04
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Usually people gain weight when they can't workout. Did he lose some weight to help with the rehab?

Bad form; reminds me of Shaq's. Wonder when pic was taken.

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tk76 reply to Dollar Bill on Dec 13 at 1:30
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That pic was taken opening night.

Don't forget to vote for Turner to the All Star game on Twitter:

Evan Turner #NBABallot

I fixed the problem on the home page. If you click on the comment listed under the story it will navigate you right to that comment, not the most recent. Enjoy!

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eddies' heady's reply to Brian on Dec 13 at 19:18
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Isn't the comment under the story on the home page the most recent though?

It is the most recent, but the link was previously taking you to the most recent unread comment, which was kind of a pain.

Should be fixed if you click the date on a comment as well.


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