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So this tells us how opposing players do when Iguodala's guarding them? How do they figure all that out? He doesn't always guard small forwards so you'd have to actually watch every game and see who he's guarding... but putting that aside, I'm not uncomfortable with where this ranks Andre. None of the guys below him are clearly better.

Also, did you see that Arenas is back? Not good news.

I don't think Arenas is going to help them to be honest with you. Milwaukee and Atlanta both did us huge favors tonight. Three-way tie for the #5 seed right now.

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Joe reply to Brian on Apr 2 at 22:29
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Yeah. They will have to adjust to Arenas again which means that there are going to be power struggles and that will cost them a game or 2.

What constitutes "opponent"? no one guards one person for a whole game, and its more uncommon than common for someone to see one person D'ing them for a majority of the game...

I believe that what they did was take the opposing player at the same position, so the other team's SF. Not a perfect method, but there you have it. I will say this, though. Iguodala usually takes the toughest defensive assignment on the perimeter. I don't think you can say the same about a lot of guys on this list.

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Tray reply to Brian on Apr 2 at 23:21
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Pretty imperfect method. Not only does Iguodala not always play the opposing SF, not only is he not always even in the game when they're on the floor, but even when he is matched up with them, this is taking into account how good our help defense is as well. If they get by him and Dalembert blocks their shot, that helps his opponent PER. Besides, if you had just stuck to his own PER, he'd rank exactly as high as he does on your spreadsheet. The only thing that would change is Butler would move above him and Howard would move below. So however you do it, he's eighth. Anyway, it's not so surprising. A lot of guys are more polished scorers than he is, but he does a lot more than just score.

I agree, it's definitely imperfect. So if we use PER only, Iguodala is number 8 on this list. If you take the SGs out of there, he's #5. How much is a top 5 SF worth?

LeBron - Averaging $14.4M for 3 seasons.
Pierce - Averaging $18.9M for 4 seasons.
Melo - Averaging $15.76 for 5 seasons
Butler - Averaging $9.3 for 4 seasons. (a complete bargain)


So what's a palatable figure to sign Iguodala for? 5 years, $13M/per? 5 years, $14M/per? Seeing where he ranks here, I think he's in line for that much.

Keep in mind that Pierce and Melo are both second bananas now on playoff teams. Butler probably would be if Arenas was healthy.

Michael Redd is a SF? Since when? I always thought he was a SG and an undersized one at that...

McGrady is a SG as well.

I don't hate PER, but I surely don't love it. I find these findings to be solid, especially with regards to the bottom 7.

Was it a waste of time? Eh. I still hate that Battier is like the 50th ranked SF when it comes to PER.

The list of players stems from the comment on Cobra Brigade. Redd does actually have minutes at SF, but very few.

Hi Brian,

There is another stat system to evaluate players called Wins Produced that does take defense and shooting efficiency more than PER. You can read up on how it is evaluated here:

http://www.wagesofwins.com/

There is a site that monitors those stats within a few hours here:
http://www.winsproduced.com

To measure people this year that play all the time you would use Wins Produced but if you are evaluating someone who hasn't played all the time or whose role changed you'd use WP/48 (wins produced per 48 minutes). The league average for WP/48 is .10. Iggy is at .183 which is very good. So, who is highest on the Sixers? Thad at .247 (before his slump he was north of .250).

Thanks for the links Chris, those are pretty cool numbers. I'd like to be able to separate out this season for Iguodala, though. Those numbers go back to the beginning of '06-'07, when Webber and Iverson were still in Philly. He's been a different player since then.

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Chris reply to Brian on Apr 3 at 1:32
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Well, since the title of the post is "Ranking Iguodala" I figure you'll love this. Since Agent Zero said publicly he was the best player to ever come out of Arizona (Iggy's school) Wages of Wins decided to put his statement to the test:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/08/22/ranking-agent-zero-and-the-arizona-alumni/
http://www.wagesofwins.com/ArizonaWP.html

That's awesome. Sometimes I think I'd like to see Arenas on the Sixers for comedic value alone.

oo ok , well that in itself says alot, Brian.

I want your opinion on the Defensive side of the argument--
defensively, you figure the ones better than Iggy are Bron, Kobe, Paul Pierce 2.0 Motivated by KG Edition, Caron, Artest, Marion, and Tmac.

Do you think that list is right or no? I put caron on the fence, AK47 if he regains his old form, and Tmac...but that Rockets D is so good you gotta put him there, IMO.

LeBron and Kobe definitely. With Pierce and Marion I think you have to take into account the versatility of Iguodala on defense. He takes the toughest non-post player on the opposing team. Whether that's a super quick guy on the perimeter or a guy like Dirk. I don't think either of those guys can man up on smaller players and shut them down.

I don't know if it's just when I saw him play, but it sure looked like Artest has lost a step when I last saw him. I think McGrady's D is under-rated.

AK is a different type of defender, but a very effective one.

This is the question I'm trying to answer. Tie game, there are 10 seconds left on the clock, the other team has the ball in their best player's hands above the 3pt line, middle of the floor, they're running a 1-4 set. It's obvious he's going to work one-on-one for the game winning shot. Who do you want defending him? For me it goes LeBron, Kobe then maybe Iguodala. Artest, is definitely in the argument. I'm not sure I'd take any of the other guys over him in that situation.

Also, I'm fully aware that in a year or two Iguodala may not be the best guy on his own team to be in this situation. Thad is on his way to being that good.

Caron is below average at defense and TMac is well below average right off the bat man. SIlly to say them IMO.

Don't forget that Caron signed his contract and then got back to his old form. I bet he is kicking himself now!

Me personally, if I was starting a franchise, I wouldn't pick Iggy first, but he would be my second or third round choice for sure. He has so many skills to offer, that a team would be crazy to not want.

If for some reason Philly doesn't offer Iggy max money, another team will for sure.

By the way, it looks like Jason Smith was busy getting filthy with his post moves. And I don't mean basketball.

Link

Hmmm, me thinks he would be better served concentrating on basketball right now. That's what he gets for hanging with Shav and Amundson.

Posting this at the bottom - one flaw in your argument is that you want to sign Andre for top 5 SF money because he's a top 5 SF according to PER, yet, don't really intend to play him at small forward. Surely, given that we have Thad, you see him playing the 2 for us down the road. So I would have to ask:

Is he a top 5 SG? If not, how far down does he rank, and how much do those guys get paid? (Keeping in mind that someone like Vince Carter, who might only be the 12th best SG in the league for all I know, got his deal back when he was a lot better. So that you can't always say, oh, so and so's the xth best SG and he gets paid y, therefore so should Andre, because that guy might have gotten paid for much better production.)

Does playing two non-shooters/dominant scorers on the wings work (assuming that Thad doesn't turn into a shooter or dominant scorer)? It just seems to me that building a team around two Pippen types isn't how you traditionally win championships. Say Tayshaun Prince is more valuable than Rip Hamilton. That doesn't necessarily mean that Detroit would be better off trading Hamilton for a Tayshaun Prince clone. That's why I have no problem with signing a gunner who doesn't play much D, because we already have a ton of people who play D and can't shoot, so if you bring in a guy who can make shots, he'll make you a lot better on offense while not hurting you much on defense because he's just one guy and everyone else is so good. To build a great team, you can't have a bunch of guys who are all good at the same things. Rather, great teams are often made up of a bunch of specialists.

Your point about signing him as one of the best 5 SF and moving him to SG is valid. It's a concern. I think he'll handle the move well, and give the Sixers a huge advantage in the half court (only Kobe can really match up with him at the 2), but you can't really be sure.

Here's something that I haven't seen talked about much, but what if they do go out and get a sick shooter to play the 2 and keep Iguodala and Thad where they are right now? Thad may be shorter than ideal for the PF, but I think he might have the low post moves and quickness to be a presence down there, and we already know he can defend most PF's.

If there is no true answer at PF in free agency or trades, I'd prefer a shooter (Arenas? Gordon? I don't know, I'm not crazy about either of them) at the two and Thad at the 4 to someone like Turiaf overpaid to play the 4.

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Max reply to Brian on Apr 3 at 18:43
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My hope is, they don't force a trade or signing for a problem superstar 4 just to fill the 4 (O'neal, Randolph). The same goes for trying to acquire a 2 (Gordon - game is flawed). You will subtract by addition. I think they will see what the market holds; if nothing makes sense they might try to keep Thad at the 4 for another season and see what develops in the 2009 market. It's what I would do given the talent we can play with. Thad has solid post moves. He would have another season to develop his right hand, and his dribble. I mean, Thad should have the potential for another inch and maybe 20 pounds eventually right? In which case he would be able to handle the 4 full time ala Josh Smith.

My problem with this scenario is Thad has already stated his desire to play the 3; I think he's an ideal 3 as well. That's where he will become a mega-star potentially given his skills. The 4 doesn't have the same promise for him. So I'd like to see him moved there sooner rather than later so he can begin his ascent. Iggy can handle the switch to 2 much easier given his leadership and ability to enhance his shot (which I think he will in spades this summer). So I'm leaning in the iggy 2, thad 3 scenario the most. But if it happens because they acquire high priced crap - I'll be pissed.

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Joe reply to Max on Apr 3 at 20:59
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OK. I feel a need to bring it up. What about Brand? The Sixers are far enough under the cap to work out a sign and trade with Brand. Brand is an elite PF in the NBA and he has had only one major injury. The Sixers have from 10-12 mill. They could work a sign and trade where they start Brand at just over 12 and then have it escalate reaching a total of 75 million over 5 years. That is 15 million per.

Brand has stated he wants to stay in LA in the past, but what else is he going to say? The Sixers could do the trade and only lose a weak contract like Booth along with some picks since they can do any trade that results in them being under the cap afterwards.

Obviously you only sign Brand if you know that you are resigning Miller as well...

Miller, Lou
Iggy, Willie
Thad, Carney
Brand, Reggie
Sammy, Smith

I'd love to see them get Brand, and if he opts out I think he'll probably be priority #1 for Stefanski. I'm just not sure he's going to opt out. He's owed $16M next season, and he may want to prove he's back from the achilles injury and go for max money after next season. Plus, more teams would be able to bid on him next year, not just the Sixers, Clippers and Grizzlies.

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Joe reply to Brian on Apr 3 at 23:06
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I would think he would take a 5 year deal if he can get it coming off the injury. A switch to the east would help him as well. It seems like a great fit assuming Miller is also going to resign...

I see him opting out if he thinks he can get a good long term deal.

It's probably going to depend on how he looks over these last 7 games. He's looked really good tonight. If he can prove he's all the way back now, he can pretty much guarantee a long-term deal. If he gets hurt or shows that he's lost a step, he'd probably use next year to rehab his value.

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Tray reply to Brian on Apr 4 at 18:02
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Well... I'd like to think Thad will develop the skills to be a really good 3, but if he never becomes more than a great finisher around the rim (strictly offensively speaking), then you could do it. The Suns played Marion at the 4 for a long time and it didn't seem to hurt them. You do give up some size though, but I guess if we ever went deep into the playoffs you could match Dalembert up with the Garnetts and Duncans of the world and have Young guard the non-factor centers. Let me say though, we can't sign Arenas. Gunners are one thing; Arenas is a completely different animal.

Sorry about Jason Smith, though I do think we could use an analysis of his in-club pick up moves ala the ranking Iguodala post.

If you're a stripper and you see Amundson, Shavlik and Jason Smith coming it's time to run for the hills.

Anybody see iguodala on the tnt pregame show last night? It was probably the first time the sixers were mentioned on the show all season and andre handled himself pretty well. Some nice compliments from chuck 2. Link

Thanks for that link Steve. It's funny seeing Iguodala and Barkley together. They were kind of in the same situation in Philly. Barkley started right at the end of Dr. J's career. He inherited the leadership of the team. Just like Andre.


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