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I assume the comps you mention were a lot better than Andre in their year 30 seasons/8th seasons. I mean, this was kind of a career year for Andre - not so much for Magic, Drexler, Cassell, etc.

I just ran the comps using the numbers from his 8th season (had to expand the time frame to include Magic.

Here are the comps for his age 30 season.

It doesn't look like any of the guys had the same kind of a jump from age 30 to 31 seasons, or 8th to 9th year in the league, but I'm not sure that should be seen as a negative or a positive. Miller's increase in production could be a byproduct of a new system, new supporting cast, and/or better conditioning in Philly than in Denver. All variables which should still play in his favor this year.

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Tray reply to Brian on Sep 2 at 21:31
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Well, I see it as a negative. You're talking about Hall of Fame players and arguing that they didn't drop off a cliff at the age of 32, so why should Miller, but their year 31 seasons weren't aberrations like his was. That said, I agree that he won't be much worse this year because of age, but there's every chance in the world that he'll regress because he just isn't that good. It's like Xavier Nady. We'd probably find that most 30-year-old .322 hitters with pop did well the next season, but Nady isn't your average 30-year-old .322 hitter.

It was probably the best season of Miller's career, but we aren't talking about an unprecedented increase. His ppg were up, but only because his fga/game were up. His shooting percentage was the best of his career, but only by 1.5%. His assists were down from his career numbers.

To make the comparison fair, you'd have to say Nady went from a .290 hitter to a .300 hitter at age 30. Yes, it was his best season, but not completely out of line and it doesn't necessarily portend a steep drop off.

Great post Brian.

All these numbers make me re-think his contract extension.

Do we lock him up and hope he can still play at a high level?

Or do we let him walk and let Lou or someone else take over and hope the Sixers can still contend with a different point guard?

From a cap perspective, letting Andre walk is a bad move. If he walks, they just lose that his $10M and they're over the cap, so they can't replace it. He'd be an easier guy to sign and trade because it's not likely that he'd get a huge raise over the $10M he made this year so the base-year thing wouldn't sting the Sixers.

We'll have a much better grasp on things next Summer, but right now I don't feel comfortable handing the team over to Lou (or any other point you could bring in for the mid-level next season). If you're making the decision today, I think you have to try to sign him to an extension. Three years, $30M maybe? I don't know.

Ya, that contract sounds reasonable. And I guess with Brand at 29, Miller at 31 and all these vets., we have a 3-4 year window, so we might as well lock Miller up.

Then when they're gone, we'll make another run with Iggy, Lou, Thad and Speights all in their primes.


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