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Through the first ten games of the season, the Sixers were an elite defensive basketball team. They were following in the footsteps of the team which finished one game away from the Eastern Conference Finals last season. It was a miracle, considering the roster changes, but it appeared as though their system would survive the personnel losses. Since then, things have changed...dramatically.
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There has been quite a bit of discussion on the Sixers' defensive performance vs. the Lakers. Some of it was good (challenging of shots led to average 2-point and excellent 3-point percentages against, 16 turnovers forced), some of it was bad (all those rebounds!). So who was responsible for what? One way to tell is to do what I did a couple times last year, compute a reverse boxscore, by assigning all Lakers statistics to a Sixer. In the reverse boxscore, defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks are all accumulated while the Sixers are on offense, while all other stats are accumulated while the Sixers are on defense. When there are switches on defense, I usually assign the shot attempts/makes to the final defender, not to the initial defender (same for offensive rebounds allowed).
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Before we enter the Sixers' back-to-back-to-back (should be fun!), here is a brief statistical interlude. In the NFL, organizations like footballoutsiders.com have revolutionized statistics by treating different game situations differently. For example, an 11-yard completion on 3rd-and-9 in the red zone with 2 minutes left in a one-score game is much more difficult (and valuable) than a 15-yard completion on 1st-and-20 in the 1st quarter. That has gotten me to thinking: what if we were to try that in the NBA? Not all points in an NBA game are equal. A basket when your team is down 2 with under a minute left is "worth" much more than a basket in garbage time. So to turn this idea into a workable system, we need to develop some weights based on game situations (the hard part) and then determine weighted statistics (it turns out that these follow naturally).
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Statman returns with a heavy heart to breakdown Andre Iguodala's performance in 2010-2011 versus every other starting small forward in the league. Be sure to check out his work on Jrue's numbers from last week. Check out the numbers and discuss. Iguodala's prediction vs. performance will land tomorrow.
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Latest comment: from emtmess
ove the Chilli's reff....
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Let's take a break from the positional breakdowns for a couple of hours and take a look back at a key facet of the Sixers regular season, clutch performance. Throughout the year, Statman has been tracking how the Sixers perform at the end of close games, it's time to take a look at the numbers and see if we can't figure out what the Sixers should do if they're lucky enough to get into a couple of games that go down to the wire against Miami.
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After a handful of disappointing defensive games, the Sixers bounced back in a big way against Toronto and Milwaukee. Here's my question to kick off this glorious game day: Are they legitimately a top-ten defensive team?
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Latest comment: from eddies' heady's
Is this an admittal that Evan is just another role player? That we can't even build around that high of a draft pick? ...
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There's only so much analysis I can do during and immediately after games. Typically, I try to pick one or two things to keep an eye on, plus the rotation charts. Luckily, we now have ways to take a closer look at what happened and try to determine why. This series will use the tools available to examine some key facets of the game and gauge how well the Sixers are winning (or losing) certain statistical battles.
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Latest comment: from Jesse
This many posts is truly a blessing. Gotta love the actual basketball season....
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As a fan, I feel a little bit numb after 44 games. I feel like I've been beaten into submission, beaten to the point where I've come to not only expect the worst, but settle for things that simply are not acceptable. After the jump, I'll give you a glaring example of what I'm talking about.
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Last week when I was compiling the data for this post, a new (to me) stat piqued my interest. DEFR, or Defensive Plays Rate. A "Defensive Play" is either a steal, block or charge drawn by a defender, the rate is the number of defensive plays a team makes out of 100 possessions. The Sixers are currently dominating this category, but I wanted to dig a little deeper. Check it out after the jump.
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As promised, here's the flip side of the post from yesterday afternoon. After the jump we'll take a look at where opponents get their shots against the Sixers, how these numbers compare to the league and what it all means. Not for the faint of heart.
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Another post derived directly from the data available at HoopData this afternoon. We're 30 games into the season and I wanted to take a close look at where the Sixers shots are coming from on the floor. A chart and some quick analysis after the jump.
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Latest comment: from Brian
It really should be....
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For most of the season, I've been harping on how Eddie Jordan has failed to integrate Elton Brand in the team's half-court offense. If you've been watching, you've noticed that about 90% of Brand's touches happen at least 20 feet away from the hoop. Mostly, his shots come off dribble drives or offensive rebounds. After the jump, a few stats to back up this theory.
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Last night, in the comments Noah asked if there was a split available to track Thad's performance throughout the game. It seems to me, and to a number of other people as well, that Thad disappears after the break very frequently. I pulled the data (thanks in large part to data made available by BasketballGeek.com), check out the numbers after the jump.
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Let's take a look at what our $80M sixth man has done to warrant being removed from the starting lineup by our fearless leader.
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We all know the Sixers defense has been terrible. The only thing I've been struggling with is quantifying just how bad it's been through the first 20 games of the season. My gut tells me it's been tragically bad, especially when compared to what we've seen from this team over the past two seasons. After the jump I'll use a mixture of basic and advanced stats to try to paint a complete picture for you of where this team stands defensively. (If statistical analysis bores the living daylights out of you, I've summed up each dorky analysis section with a mini conclusion, then there's a wrap up of the whole exercise at the end. Glance at the charts and graphs, then the conclusions and you should get a pretty good picture).
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