 Introspection, Depressed Fan Style
SML was the first to pull his preseason baseball predictions out and see how he did. Now, it's my turn.
We'll go over the NL First. You can find my original predictions here. N.L. East Predicted - Padres, Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies Actual - D-Backs, Padres/Rockies, Dodgers, Giants Hmmn. I had the Padres winning the division and the Giants taking the Wild Card out of this division. Let's just say I was horribly mistaken and leave it at that. The Giants were possibly the worst team in the league, and the Bonds' HR chase only made for a less competitive team on the field. Ownership seemed content to milk that circus for all it was worth, let him fill the seats by himself, and do a half-assed rebuild on the fly. I didn't think the D-Backs were legit, and I still don't. A team that gets outscored by 20 runs on the season is not good. They just aren't. Yes, Brandon Webb can shut down any team, on any given night. With their anemic offense, that probably won't be enough come playoff time. Grade: D. N.L. Central Predicted - Cubs, Astros, Cards, Brewers, Reds, Pirates Actual - Cubs, Brewers, Cards, Astros, Reds, Pirates Much better here. I flip-flopped the Astros and Brewers, but predicted the fall-off for the Cards. The Cubbies came on strong in "the division no one wanted to win," and put away a Brewers team that peaked in April and somehow managed to cling to life for the next 5 months. The Cubs are one of the two teams I see as having a legit shot at making the series, and it's not because I think they're good. It's because all but one team is really, really bad. Grade: A- N.L. East Predicted - Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals Actual - Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals I had this one 100% dead on. I didn't exactly predict it would end with all the drama, but all's well that ends well from where I sit. My fantasy sleeper of the year, Shane Victorino, lived up to the hype as well. Here's my quote: "He (Victorino) could swipe 40 bases and score 100 runs sandwiched between Rollins and Utley in this lineup." He fell short of those numbers, due to a late-season injury, but still put up a respectable 37 SBs, 12 HRs, and 78 runs scored. Not bad for a 23rd round pick. Grade: A+ Before the season I picked the Padres to represent the N.L. in the series. Now, I'm taking the Phils. They're the hottest team in the league, the only team with a legitimate lineup. They have the two hottest hitters in the league, and Hamels is right up there with Peavy and Zambrano. I think they win the N.L.D.S. in 4, then the N.L.C.S. over the Cubs in 6. Hamels is the key, and MVP of the N.L.C.S. My American League predictions can be found here. Let's jump right in. A.L. West Predicted - Oakland A's, LAAofA, Rangers, Mariners Actual - LAAofA, Seattle, Oakland, Texas OK, I am not good at predicting what happens on the left coast. I had the Angles making the playoffs, but as the Wild Card, and I didn't think this would finally be the year that Moneyball fell flat on its face for the A's. Alas, the A's finished below .500, and Seattle challenged for the division into early September. Grade: D- A.L. Central Predicted - Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals Actual - Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals I swapped the Twins and the Tigers, but otherwise nailed this division. The Tigers completely faded from the picture down the stretch, the same way they did last year. I expected more out of the Twins, but their ace just wasn't his usual dominant self, and the rest of the pitching staff was too young, and too bad. My one specific prediction, "The Chisox will implode, and Guillen will get fired." was 100% accurate. Guillen absolutely should've been fired, but for some reason he wasn't. Grade: B A.L. East Predicted - Yanks, Jays, Sox, Orioles, D-Rays Actual - Sox, Yanks, Jays, Orioles, D-Rays Yes, I picked the Yanks. I know, it was a shocking pick. The Sox held on and predictions like, "Josh Beckett can't handle the A.L." don't quite seem prescient at this point. The Yankee-specific predictions I made, however, stand the test of time. The Yanks have the young talent waiting in the wings, and their regulars are old enough to dictate a couple timely call ups. The hunger they bring to the lineup will energize the well-fed veterans.Grade: B- Before the season, I took the Angles over the Yanks in the A.L.D.S. Luckily, they won't be facing their nemesis in a short series. I hate to make post-season predictions on the Yanks, but here goes. Yankees over Cleveland in 4. Angels over Boston in 5 (Escobar > Dice-K/Schilling twice). Yanks over Rally Monkeys in 6. Yanks over Phillies in the series. 
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As with SML, you were right on in the NL, not as accurate in the AL.
Things that make you go HMMM....
Off topic, but do you think Willie Randolph deserves to lose his job because of the Mutts' collapse? I liked Willie Randolph when he was a player and don't think this implosion was his fault....
He really didn't have the horses. I don't think he should lose his job, ultimately, this was one part Minaya's fault and two parts the players' fault. They were a flawed team, but at some point, a player needs to say, "I'm not going to let us lose this game," like John Mayne did on Saturday.
JJ beat me to it, but yeah... you also did better on the NL than the AL. I guess our biases messed us up, particularly in the AL East.
Agree on your take on the Mets. Minaya failed, and the players failed (particularly Oliver Perez and Tom Glavine, wildness killing them). Blaming Willie is futile.
This sounds weird, but what goes around comes around. Karma came back and bit the Mutts in the a$$.
How ironic that Glavine should fail. When Glavine was a free agent a few years back, he visited Philadelphia. He was treated like royalty... Governor Eddie Rendell personally escorted him around and he was warmly welcomed everywhere. Glavine attended a Philadelphia Flyers game that I was at and when he appeared on the Phanavision screen, the whole stadium gave him a standing ovation. Then three days later, the shmuck signs with the Mutts. Everytime he pitches here, the boos are especially loud.
And after Billy Wagner left Philadelphia for the Mutts, he ripped Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu and others for not having the heart to win. He conveniently ignored the fact that he blew three saves in the last ten days in his last year in Philly, two of them against the Astros, who won the wild card.
I place the blame of the Mutts' collapse on the players more than Minaya or Randolph. I think the talent was there for the Mutts, the heart wasn't. Their defense was pathetic in the last month, and who was it that made that idiotic statement that 'the team was just bored?' This collapse was on par with the Phil's collapse in 1964 and oh so sweet that it happens to the Mutts.
Minaya has supposedly backed Willie Randolph and said he's liked the job he's done. I don't know much about Met ownership but I hope they don't look at these guys at scapegoats.
I don't think heads are really going to roll, but I do think this will make the Mets a lot more active in the off season. Last year they pretty much stood pat. They have a young core in Wright, Reyes and Beltran. A couple of emerging guys in Milledge and Gomez, one legit starter in Mayne, and a shaky bullpen. They need pitching, and they need it now.
Oh, what a horrible year for Oakland. I am just hoping they take a long look at that roster and dump some salary. I like the young players a ton. Also, I do not agree with giving Bob Geren an extension on his contract. Hire Joe Girardi please.
I never understood Joe Girardi getting fired in Florida. I thought he was a decent manager. Oakland would be fortunate to pick him up.
Billy Beane's method of assessing talent is masterful. I just read Moneyball again a few months ago, and having an idiot as a GM in Philly makes you appreciate Beane even more. I just wish he was here. Just imagine what he could do with the Phils' payroll if he could get that far on the measley payroll Oakland has.
Girardi is the last GM Beane would ever want. He wants an empty uniform in the dugout who will basically make exactly the moves he wants made, according to statistics. Girardi is more of an old school baseball guy, who loves to hit and run, steal, bunt...you know, manage. His style goes directly against Moneyball philosophies.
I think he'll be managing somewhere next year. He turned down the Baltimore gig in the middle of this season, he's just waiting for the right opportunity.