After giving it some serious thought, that's the situation I think the Sixers find themselves in without Thad Young. Two chances at winning, Speights and none.
I still haven't seen any official word on Thad's injury, but this post can't wait any longer. Thad is going to miss some time, I think that's a certainty, so the question becomes, what now.
I've looked at this from every angle and I think it's safe to say that this offense cannot function against a good defensive team in the half court without Thad unless Marreese Speights is inserted at the four and he plays out of his mind. Over the past month we've seen Thad demonstrate an ability to consistently torch his man in the half court from pretty much anywhere on the floor. When they needed a hoop, Thad could get it. Without him, it's going to be up to Iguodala and Miller to do more than they're comfortable doing with the ball on offense, more than they're really capable of doing. If this team doesn't have another viable option, teams are going to clamp down on the Andres.
The good news is that for the most part this season, Speights has played out of his mind on the offensive side of the ball. He's got a pretty jumper, he's a superb finisher around the rim. He's active on the offensive glass, he seems to get how to run plays and against the zone he's very good at finding the soft spot around the foul line and hitting that jumper. At his best, he can fill the void left by Thad in a slowed-down game. I don't think there's any way we can expect the type of production we're going to need out of the position to come from Reggie Evans or Donyell Marshall, the other viable options at the four. At least not for any extended period of time.
Donyell can play in spurts and be effective, but asking more than 10-12 minutes/game out of him isn't realistic. Reggie can be productive under a very specific set of circumstances, but you never, ever want him on the floor for more than 15-20 minutes. That's negligent over-exposure. The only guy capable of playing starter-level minutes at the 4 is Speights, and he's also going to still be needed in the center rotation because I'm not sure we can count on Dalembert + Theo being good for 48 a night either.
The knee-jerk reaction is to scream at the top of our longs for Tony DiLeo to start Speights and play him thirty minutes/night, and while that is something that should happen, it isn't completely up to DiLeo. Marreese has to find a way to stay on the floor. Even if the team's plan is to start Speights at the four and give him 30 minutes split between the big positions, that plan won't mean anything if he picks up 2 fouls in the first five minutes, which he's been prone to do.
At this point, under these circumstances, we're going to have to live with whatever defensive shortcomings Speights has. What we can't live with, and what the team really can't survive is stupid fouls to compound defensive mistakes. Now, more than ever, we need Speights on the floor. I'm hoping DiLeo will be smart enough to give the kid the minutes, let's just hope Marreese is mature enough to accept them.
I'm still holding out hope that Thad will be back for the playoffs, what I'm really talking about here is the final 9 games of the season. But should the worst happen, these lessons probably apply more to the tough, grind-it-out games of the second season.
Foul prone and mediocre defensive effort is not allowed from rookies on the sixers (only from - you know - over paid veterans)
I expect to see the starting 'line up' that started the 07/08 season - Shreks uglier cousin will be starting again
I hope you're wrong, but even if you're right, the starting nod is less important than total minutes and who's on the floor for the final 8 minutes or so. The goal has to be 25-30 minutes for Speights, whenever they come.
*thumbs up* we'll see how it plays out. hope the asst coaches are giving him some good one-on-one instruction now. i'm giddy with anticipation.
p.s. we shouldn't forget that DiLeo, whether by evil design or loving intent, has given M16 sink or swim crunch time minutes in the fourth quarter a number of times in the past and Speights did very well in most of em. if he can't get real burn now with two starters for his position out with injury, then what the hell. seriously, what the hell.
And we should also not forget that if Speights has a 'bad run' in the first half - dteremined by DiLeo it seems - he often doesn't get off the bench in the second half - in favor of ugly shrek
I mean, we can't afford that at this point. That has to be obvious, right?
I'm expecting some stupid small lineups as well. Something like Williams, Green, Ivey, Iguodala, Evans.
Makes me sick just to write that.
What I think is obvious and what is obvious to the sixers doesn't always jive :)
At this point I'd run speights because without Young the 'make noise' in the first round thing took a huge hit - so let's get Speights as much minutes as possible
Cosigned. Y'know, like, duh?
Anyway, I don't get what the major scare is over a couple extra fouls (as long as he's the only foul problem -- so don't put both Reggie and Marreese out at the same time). Team gets a fresh reset every quarter.
FWIW, from what I've seen, even if he gets a couple quick fouls, he seems to figure it out and goes a long stretch before picking up the third. Frig, let him foul out if it comes to that. Kid's got to learn sometime, now's a better time than most.
Still no word on Young's MRI -- info wasn't available at this afternoon's practice -- but my guess is Young will miss 10 days to two weeks. I think Evans will start at the '4' with Speights playing the second and fourth quarters.
Not only would DiLeo not name a starter, he wouldn't even say who the possibilities were.
Stefanski said signing a 10-day guy was a possibility (likely a small forward), depending on how long Young is out. DiLeo said Rush could actually get some minutes since he is really the only other "3" besides Iguodala.
Rush is a three? :)
Thanks for the update Tom, great to meet you last night.
Oh, eff me.
Maybe not a true small forward, but he's more of a '3' than Ivey or Green -- the other options at this point. He's listed as a 'Guard/Forward' in the Sixers' media guide.
Nice to meet you, too, Brian.
http://www.82games.com/0708/07IND6C.HTM
Rush didn't do too well at the 3 last year. His previous work though has him better at the 3 than the 2 in other seasons, so I don't think it really matters.
I think he would fare better against 2s personally, just my opinion of him from the 8 times or so I saw him play in Indiana last year when I was stalking Danny Granger as his fantasy owner.
I'm trying to focus on the positive. Even if Speights does not start, he will get ample opportunity to contribute. Speights had fallen off a ton the last few weeks, and hopefully this chance will jump start his progress heading into off season work-outs and next year.
Honestly, with Brand's injury and the other struggles this has been a lost season. The last few weeks from Young have been th only net positive, I'm hoping these last 9 days can leave us with a similar feeling about Speights.
Regardless of what happens the rest of this year, we need to know what this team can expect from Thad, Speights and Lou next year. We already learned Lou cannot be the PG next year, and Thad is ready to be a big time cog in the offense. I hope we learn that Speights can be a 12+ ppg part as well.
I mean, Speights played 25 last night, Evans played 20, and that's with Thad playing the first 10 minutes of the first quarter. So say the other 10 minutes are split up similarly, that's about 30 minutes for Speights. Evans will probably start but Speights will get more minutes.
25? I can see that number being hit in a majority of the games left. 30? I can't see Speights topping that more than once or twice. I do think we will see Reggie top 20 every single game though.
In the end, I agree that Speights will get more minutes. I feel like this is one of those situations where Speights has to be pumped. This is his chance to show what he can do when it matters... I expect him to succeed.
Ultimately, I'm more worried about Speights being able to stay on the floor for 20+ more than I am about DiLeo's willingness to give him the minutes.
You mean fouls then... As long as he isn't starting that shouldn't be much of an issue right?
Maybe we will just see a Willie/Reggie and a Lou/Speights sub pattern or something. I think Speights can give you 24 minutes a night without fouls being much of an issue. And then if he is hot... ride him in the 4th.
Seems to make some sense to me, especially since Speights and Lou have "clicked" at times.
It's going to be a tough situation. If DiLeo plays Reggie in the starter's rotation (almost the entire 1st and 3rd quarters) we're going to see Iguodala and Miller swallowed up by doubles. It's not just a matter of giving speights minutes, it's also who he's on the floor with during those minutes. The first unit needs his help.
You may be needlessly fretting. Somebody can break out the spreadsheet calculate the avg, but just kind of eyeballing his game log, seems to me he had a number of 20+ min games without running into serious foul trouble (and a few with only 1 foul).
It's a different mentality playing knowing you're going to be needed for a long stretch. When you're a sub, most guys don't worry about their fouls as much. See Paul Millsap. Starting you play a lil more smart an a lil less "hard."
If he can manage 30-odd mins with only 3-4 fouls, then he's keeping up with a lot of vets at his position. Let the kid run. It's not the end of the world, just the end of a playoff-bound season.
I spend a lot of my waking hours needlessly fretting :)
Kid, job, 3 blogs
how the hell do you find the time to fret - i have no idea where i'm going to find the time now that i've disocvered this untapped market i can try and tap in the natural foods industry
2 kids :)
It was very painful watching Thad last night. But, this could be a blessing in disguise. This forces Speights to step up and play NBA ball. He can grow up fast and he could be a Rookie of the Year player this year.
We all agree the sixers will not make it past the 2nd round, but, who knows, maybe Speights will play "Lebron like" and we could be in the Eastern Finals??? Dreaming, yes, I am pretty sure, but you NEVER know.
This also may get the rest of our players to stop playing dumb (Lou, Sammy, Reggie for example) and .....
And if they flop, we all will not be surprised either and it will not hurt as much w/out Thad.
Just heard from Sixers. Young to miss 2-3 weeks with sprained ankle and bone bruise. That's rest of regular season and 2-3 games in playoffs ...
Tom
What exactly is a bone bruise? Does this time frame seem reasonable and safe for Thad longterm?