We're now deep into the rotation with our
Early Predictions series. Today we'll tackle Elton Brand. Bounce-back season or slaloming down the backside of his prime with no brakes.
Brand was, by far, the hardest for me to predict to this point in the series. On the one hand, I believe his poor production last season had more to do with Eddie Jordan than deteriorated skills. On the other hand, I do believe his skills have deteriorated to a degree. I think Doug Collins will get more out of him, but I just don't know how much there is to get. Here are my predictions:
- Minutes: 1,900
- Points/game: 13
- Rebs/game: 7.5
- Ast/game: 1.4
- Steals/game: 1.0
- Blocks/game: 1.4
- TOV/game: 1.2
- FG%: 49%
Better rebounding, better defense, better effort, better overall production in fewer minutes. That's pretty much what I think Collins will be able to get out of Brand. Nothing spectacular, because I think he's going to be seeing decent time at the five, which just isn't a good place for him, and he's going to be asked to do way too much on the glass and in terms of protecting the paint.
I see Brand starting, probably at the four with either Hawes or Speights at the five, but he'll need to be out there more often than not when Collins decides to go small with Thad or Nocioni at the four. The drop in minutes are a result of the crowding Thad and Nocioni will cause at the four and five. I think Brand plays pretty much a full season, more than 75 games.
Your thoughts in the comments, as usual.
I think less minutes is the key with 28 per being his max for the year. With Collins stressing matchups there are going to be plenty of times Thad will make sense at the 4 this year. I think his points go up [15 ppg.] because he will have possibly the best 3 playmakers combined at the 1, 2, and 3 in the whole league and rebounds go up to 8 per . His blocks get to 1.5 per game because he becomes the last line of defense with Sam gone and when all is said and done I believe we all will be happy with his production this season.
"he will have possibly the best 3 playmakers combined at the 1, 2, and 3 in the whole league"
Can you clarify that?
I think he is almost playing with 3 pg.!s who all are unselfish in iGGY, jRUE AND eVAN.
With those numbers, you are predicting a return to Elton in his prime, just playing less minutes.
That would be terrific. I'm not holding my breath, though.
That rebounding would require Brand to rebound at very close to the best he ever has. I have it at 10.8 per 36.(assuming 76 games, 25 mpg)
He has done 11 once and 10.3 once.
I'd be surprised if he hit 9.4 per36, his career average. I'd say he would get more like 6.3 rebounds in that time and not 7.5.
I had him at 10.6 REB/36. A big bump because someone has to get them, and he isn't going to need to fight his teammates in the front court for them. (25.5 MPG, 75 games).
http://www.82games.com/0910/09PHI11.HTM#bypos
Well, hey, maybe. His numbers at C were much better. They were with Thad almost entirely, so who knows.
I hope he improves.
Starting to feel like basketball season a little bit.
I agree with Joe somewhat. I think he is not going to get 7+ boards a game, unfortunately. I do, however, think he'll score more, approx. 17 ppg., and have more apg at about 2.5.
I think his scoring comes early in the game while his legs are still fresh. He was clearly a favorite target for Jrue last season. He'll pass well out of the 5 spot and the Thad and Noc should get some good looks when he's doubled in the post.
17, 6, 2.5 with nearly 3 defensive plays(combinations of blocks and steals)
Do teams really need to double him when he's at the five in the post? Most centers can handle him w/ their height, or at least they were able to last season.
Yup, the early scoring and old man moves will force help to come over. Not to mention that Collins wil have him positioned in spots where he can produce, instead of setting up on the arc like he's Jason Kapono.
I was just looking at Kenyon Martin's career numbers. I ddin't realize that this past season's 9.4 rpg was the second best average of his career, 3 years removed from a major leg injury. He's another undersized 4, albiet more of an above the rim player than EB, but he's 2 years older. There may be a real shot at Elton regaining his form on the glass.
Collins Thursday to me on Brand: "He had a great workout (with Sixers conditioning coach Jesse Wright nine days ago). More importantly, he weighed 255. That's the weight I want him. I said, 'Elton, I'd like to see you at 255.' Here it is early August at 255. It's going to take all that stress off his legs. To me, that's an incredibly positive sign to what Elton would like to see happen this year. ... I've talked to Elton numerous times on the phone and we've texted. He's in shape and his legs feel good. He feels like he's getting more lift. In his words, 'I'm ready to go.' "
Writing about that for tomorrow.
Do you have any idea what weight he played at last season?
Collins wasn't sure and training staff wouldn't confirm, but sounds like the mid-260s.
I just want everyone to know that I just sent in an application for a job with the Sixers. Something to do with ticket sales. Not exactly what I thought I would try after graduating college, but who knows this might be my path to GM.
Good luck.
good luck TL. If you haven't already you should try to meet someone who works in that department. its much easier to get in if you get referred by someone who can get your resume to the right person.
Brand's agent was complaining about brand's minutes being cut last year so i think that it is doubtful that brand would be happy with 27-29 minutes.
On one hand I see Brand being better utilized than in the past. On the other hand I have a hunch that his body will not hold up to the pounding he will take in the more physical role they will ask of him. I also think Brand- even used properly- is not the greatest fit on this roster.
I do think Brand can give them a good spark in the 2nd quarter against lesser defenders. Even if he starts, I hope his minutes are aligned so that he gets a lot of run in the 2nd quarter.
Eh, I don't really think he was any more/less effective against second units last season. He played his best early in the year (right after Speights got hurt), when Jordan was forced to put Brand back into the starting lineup and play him heavy minutes.
If anything, I think you need to keep him away from playing the five against legit centers, because he just couldn't get his shot up over them last year. Play him at the four and he's fine, at the five, use him in the P&R and try to get him short jumpers rather than giving him the ball on the blocks.
Link to my Sixers' stories:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/sports/sixers.html
Thanks.
I just want Elton play well enough to the point that where he has some trade value.
Anyway, I read this on yahoo:
"So I think the Pacers should send Mike Dunleavy, T.J. Ford(notes), Jeff Foster(notes) (all expiring contracts) and Paul George(notes) to Philadelphia -- along with their first-round pick from next year (top three protected, losing said protection the year after) -- for Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala and Marreese Speights"
Would you make that trade?
So they would be left with exprirings in ():
Jrue / Lou
Turner / Meeks / (Green)
George / (Nocioni / Kapono)
Thad / (Foster)
Hawes / (Smith)
With 2 #1's next year.
That is not enough return for Iguodala IMO. Also, leaves a lot of holes in the roster (especially without Speights. George is a nice prospect, but the Indiana 2011 #1 would be a mid 1st of minor value. Two mid 1sts for Iguodala is not the way to build the team. Especially given Speights himself is worth a mid 1st rounder.
Nocioni isn't expiring, Stefanski's final gift to the Sixers.
Thorn couldn't have quit a month earlier?
Since the sixers were finally able to 'dump' Samuel Dalembert, the urgency to move Brand at the expense of giving up Iguodala for pennies on the dollar (that I don't believe ever really existed) should have abated until at least the next regular season after this one (whenever it is) as the sixers are under the luxury tax at least for next season.
Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett were acquired for much less. I'm sorry, but you also have to consider that Indiana would be taking $51 million of Elton Brand in this deal. If i'm Indiana I wouldn't do this deal. This would kill their capspace and they would be stuck with EB for 3 years
The difference is giving up one starter vs. 3 starters, or 2 starters and a first guy off the bench. Speights is 6'10" and can shoot, remember - he's going to play for 12 years. I just don't think it's that urgent to dump Brand's contract. He's not wearing a suit every night.
Dunleavy will drift out of the league in 2 or 3 years. I don't know what he does except shoot open jumpers. George is a total unknown. Foster, though I love him, is on the downside and is after all just an undersized center. Nobody wants T.J. Ford for whatever reason (maybe because he's never accomplished much). Indiana's #1 pick and a guy who could become a star in George for 2 big men and one of the best 2 or 3 wing defenders in the league - Garnett & Gasol were acquired for much less? I know, I know, expiring contracts. But come on. You have to realize what an asset you have in Iguodala - somebody who can guard Wade & Kobe. How many teams have that?
I like the deal, would love it if we had a good GM who knew how to use 20 mill in cap space but whatever. We are getting a very fair deal here. (Our core that we were looking for in 3 years was Jrue/Turner/Iggy, would basically turn to Jrue/Turner/George (him and Jrue are frd i believe) + we'd be worse to start so we'd get a better pick next year to get a 4/5 an extra pick in 2011.
God I hate stefanski, he's the only reason i would think about saying no to this, he'd end up paying a big name FA a ton of money that isn't going to help us instead of rebuild slowly. Wonder if the Philly Job would become more attractive for a GM. Collins would quit tho lol.
Rod Thorn spent his 35 million cap space on Johan Petro, Travis Outlaw, Morrow, and Jordan Farmar. I'm not really excited about him
Better than trading for Nocioni and Hawes, imo. NJ still had about $15M in cap space left prior to the Murphy trade, I believe.
With Elton Brand, I don't think it's about position so much as his role. At this point in his career, he's basically like those still-athletic middle-aged low-post bangers in pick up games. His role is to body people and bang in the post so the Sixers can play inside-outside(which is the only way to play if you want to win in the East) and he needs to play under the basket, drawing fouls, going up under the basket strong, do those strong, two-handed up from under the rim dunks, and keep the defense honest with the occasional pick and pop jumpshot. Last year, he did exactly that. He also showed he hasn't lost as much athleticism or explosiveness as we all thought he had, and played a lot better defense than he was given credit for. Unfortunately, Dalembert was such a defensive liability most nights that Brand couldn't just do his thing.
He's basically what Al Horford is for the Hawks. He needs a Josh Smith to be a consistent shot-blocker so he can do what he does best, what he's done for the Sixers since he came here. If the Sixers had drafted Derrick Favors, Brand would be worth every penny of that contract of his. Who knows though, maybe Speights, Hawes, somebody can be that shot-blocker that he needs.
Brand is still a 20-10 guy; it's just more muscle than anything now but the fact is that he's not lacking in strength or toughness and he will bully people in the low post for as long as he's playing in the NBA. He's not a superstar but he is essential, and he's a player that most teams would be stupid as hell to not want banging in the low post. He just needs a shot-blocker to have his back is all, so he can sharpen those elbows and dig in.