Phil Jasner wrote an
interesting article today about the Sixers' drafting in recent years. While the concept of the article was good and the back story that he provided for each pick was illuminating, I thought there were problems with his evaluation methodology. To evaluate how good an NBA draft pick is, one has to take into account who was available when the team drafted, how happy the team is (in hindsight) with the pick, and where the player would be picked today if the draft were done over. After the jump, I'll give my thoughts.
My general rule of thumb as far as grading is that if a player would be picked in the same slot in a draft do-over, the grade is a B, with adjustments up or down accordingly. Also, the information readily available to me doesn't include undrafted free agents, so I'm not including them in the analysis. In honor of the recently departed Sam Dalembert, let's start with 2001.
Samuel Dalembert (2001, pick #26)
- What they got: even his detractors would have to admit that Dalembert is a starting-caliber NBA center who provides above-average rebounding and defense. For the Sixers, he started 491 of 548 games after his rookie season and was an important player on their playoff teams of 08-09.
- Who they could have gotten: Tony Parker (#28), Gilbert Arenas (#31), Mehmet Okur (#38)
- Be glad they didn't get: Kwame Brown (#1), Eddie Griffin (#7), Rodney White (#9), Kedrick Brown (#11), Kirk Haston (#16), Joseph Forte (#21)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #15. Definitely ahead: P.Gasol, T.Parker, Arenas, Joe Johnson, J.Richardson, G.Wallace, Okur, R.Jefferson, Z.Randolph. Probably ahead: T.Chandler, Battier, Tinsley, T.Murphy.
- Final grade: A-
Jiri Welsch (2002, pick #16)
- What they got: the Sixers immediately traded this pick to Golden State for a nothing 2004 2nd-rounder and a 1st-round pick in 2005. They traded the latter as part of the deal to get Kenny Thomas, who was a decent rotation player on the 48-win 02-03 Sixers, got a ridiculous contract in the summer of 2003, was a mediocre starting PF in 03-04 and part of 04-05, and eventually got traded for Chris Webber (trading one bad contract for another). Think of the pick as essentially Kenny Thomas. The first round pick in 2005 (#16) became Joey Graham but could have been Danny Granger.
- Who they could have gotten: Prince (#23), Salmons (#26), Boozer (#35), Scola (#56). With the 2005 pick they traded for Thomas: Granger (#17), David Lee (#30), Monta Ellis (#40).
- Be glad they didn't get: Jay Williams (#2), Tskitishvili (#5), Dajuan Wagner (#6), Melvin Ely (#12), Haislip (#13). Lots of tragic stories and just plain bad picks in the 2002 draft.
- Where he would go in a re-draft: sticking Kenny Thomas in the 2002 draft, about #13 -- which shows how bad the 2002 draft was. Definitely ahead: Yao, Amare, Caron Butler, Boozer, Prince, Scola, Drew Gooden, Salmons, Dunleavy. Same vicinity: Krstic, Flip Murray, Matt Barnes, Rasual Butler.
- Final grade: for what they did with the pick itself (essentially Welsch for Kenny Thomas), B+. Considering what they could have gotten if they had kept the 2005 pick: C-.
John Salmons (2002 pick #26) [Sixers traded Speedy Claxton]
- What they got: with the Sixers, Salmons was a bench player who never really fit in, especially clashing with Iverson. Since he left the Sixers, he's become an effective and sometimes dangerous scorer (55% TS% every year) with three different teams.
- What they could have gotten: Boozer (#35), Scola (#56)
- Be glad they didn't get: see above
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #8 (see players above). However, the Salmons who played for the Sixers would have been around #20-#25.
- Final grade: B. The trade was a wash. Claxton couldn't play with Iverson -- and then it turns out Salmons couldn't either.
Sam Clancy (2002 pick #45)
- What they got: nothing. He never played for them.
- What they could have gotten: Matt Barnes (#46), Songaila (#50), Rasual Butler (#53), Scola (#56).
- Where he would go in a re-draft: undrafted.
- Final grade: F.
Dahntay Jones (2003 pick #20) [traded by Sixers to Celtics for Moiso]
- What they got: about two years of Derrick Coleman. Moiso was part of the package (along with George Lynch and the 2005 pick that eventually became Joey Graham) that brought Coleman
- What they could have gotten: Diaw (#21), Travis Outlaw (#23), Delfino (#25), Kendrick Perkins (#27), Barbosa (#28), Josh Howard (#29), Mo Williams (#47)
- Be glad they didn't get: Milicic (#2), Reece Gaines (#15), Cabarkapa (#17)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: stick an old Derrick Coleman in the 2003 draft, about #20. Definitely ahead: LeBron, Carmelo, Bosh, Wade, David West, Josh Howard, Kaman, Hinrich, Diaw, K.Perkins, Barbosa, Pietrus, Mo Williams. Probably ahead: Korver, T.J. Ford, N. Collison, Ridnour, T. Outlaw, Delfino, Kapono.
- Final grade: the deal itself (#1 for Moiso) gets an F, overall it gets a C- since Coleman was a starter for two playoff years.
Willie Green (2003 pick #41) [traded by Sonics for #50 and Paccelis Morlende and cash]
- What they got: he came into the league as more of a physical slasher, and when he played that way he was a steal at that spot. Then he got hurt, and what he's become is a jump-shooter who rarely draws contact and a poor defender, a good person but strictly a #9-#10 guy at best.
- What they could have gotten: Mo Williams (#47), Korver (#51)
- Be glad they didn't get: Schortsanitis (#34), Szewczyk (#35), Slavko Vranes (#39), Derrick Zimmerman (#40)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #30, only because there are a ton of guys in this draft who never played in the NBA.
- Final grade: B+
Kyle Korver (2003 pick #51) [traded by Nets to Sixers for cash]
- What they got: a great shooter who is subpar in other areas but not horrendously so. He was a competent starter for the Sixers in 04-05 and 05-06 (TS% about 58%), though he got totally shut down by Prince in the '05 playoffs.
- What they could have gotten: no one better behind him
- Be glad they didn't get: see above, plus Badiane (#44), Becirovic (#46), Morlende (#50)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #15
- Final grade: A
Andre Iguodala (2004 pick #9)
- What they got: a starter from Day One, Iguodala is arguably a top-30 player in the NBA (he has been by several advanced metrics the past couple years), a top wing defender (has gotten All-Defense votes every year of his career), and one of the better all-around players in the NBA (one of two 17-6-5 players this past year, with LeBron; top 40 in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals)
- What they could have gotten: arguably, Josh Smith (#17), Jameer Nelson (#20), Kevin Martin (#26)
- Be glad they didn't get: Livingston (#4), Araujo (#8)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #3. Definitely ahead: Dwight Howard. Same vicinity: Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon. A little behind: Okafor, Childress, Deng.
- Final grade: A
Joey Graham (2005 pick #16) [traded by Sixers to Nuggets in Kenny Thomas deal]
- What they got: see notes above on Kenny Thomas
- What they could have gotten: Granger (#17), Warrick (#19), Maxiell (#26), David Lee (#30), Bass (#33), Monta Ellis (#40)
- Be glad they didn't get: Fran Vazquez (#11), Korolev (#12)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: stick 02-04 Kenny Thomas in the 2005 draft, about #25. Definitely ahead: Deron Williams, Paul, Bynum, Granger, Bogut, M. Ellis, David Lee, Marvin Williams, Felton, Frye, Villanueva. Probably ahead: Jack, Warrick, Nate Robinson, Maxiell, Gomes, Lou Williams, Amir Johnson, Martell Webster.
- Final grade: give this part of the Kenny Thomas saga a D
Lou Williams (2005 pick #45)
- What they got: Lou has become an instant-offense player off the bench, a good change-of-pace player (but probably not a starter) on a good team.
- What they could have gotten: arguably, Blatche (#49), Gomes (#50)
- Be glad they didn't get: Ukic (#41), Ilic (#43), Andriuskevicius (#44) and a bunch more higher up
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #15. See players above.
- Final grade: A
Rodney Carney (2006 pick #16) [traded to Sixers with 2007 2nd-rounder for #13 Sefolosa]
- What they got: a #7-#8 player who can make spot contributions off the bench
- What they could have gotten: Rondo (#21), Farmar (#26), Millsap (#47)
- Be glad they didn't get: A.Morrison (#3), O'Bryant (#9), Sene (#10), H.Armstrong (#12), C.Simmons (#15)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #15. Definitely ahead: Roy, Rondo, Aldridge, Gay, Millsap, Bargnani, Redick, Foye, R.Brewer, Tyrus Thomas. Same vicinity: Sefolosha (ironically), D. Gibson, Lowry, Shannon Brown, Farmar, Sergio Rodriguez, Craig Smith
- Final grade: B (this was another weak draft)
Bobby Jones (2006 pick #37) [acquired from Wolves for 2007 2nd-rounder]
- What they got: a 12th-man type
- What they could have gotten: Daniel Gibson (#42), Millsap (#47), Leon Powe (#49). Daniel Gibson was selected with the Sixers' original pick, sent to the Cavs with Lee Nailon for nothing (i.e., the cost of getting rid of Nailon).
- Where he would go in a re-draft: late 2nd-rounder
- Final grade: D
Thaddeus Young (2007 pick #12)
- What they got: a solid player who can score with above-average post moves and fill the lane on fastbreaks
- What they could have gotten: Carl Landry (#31), Glen Davis (#35), Marc Gasol (#48)
- Be glad they didn't get: Yi Jianlian (#6), Corey Brewer (#7), Brandan Wright (#8), Spencer Hawes (#10 - ouch), Acie Law (#11)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #12. Definitely ahead: Durant, Horford, Jeff Green, Noah, Stuckey, Landry. Same vicinity: Aaron Brooks, Glen Davis, J.Dudley, Al Thornton, R.Fernandez, Conley, Yi, C.Brewer, Afflalo, Oden
- Final grade: B
Jason Smith (2007 pick #20) [traded by Heat to Sixers for Daequan Cook]
- What they got: at this point, strictly an 11th-man, 3rd-center type
- What they could have gotten: J.Dudley (#22), R.Fernandez (#24), A.Brooks (#26), Landry (#31), Glen Davis (#35), M.Gasol (#48)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: mid-2nd round
- Final grade: D-
Derrick Byars (2007 pick #42) and
Herbert Hill (2007 pick #55)
- What they got: nothing. Neither player has ever played in the NBA. Obscure state: Hill played 5 games for Tulsa in the D-league in 08-09, putting up 75 FGA and only 6 FTA.
- What they could have gotten: M.Gasol #48, Sessions (#56). Sixers got Hill for Kyrylo Fesenko, last seen lumbering around for the Jazz this past playoffs.
- Where they would go in a re-draft: undrafted
- Final grade: F
Marreese Speights (2008 pick #16)
- What they got: a talented offensive player with questionable work habits and poor defense
- What they could have gotten: Hickson (#19), Courtney Lee (#22), Ibaka (#24), Batum (#25), George Hill (#26)
- Be glad they didn't get: Joe Alexander (#8), no other huge busts yet
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #16. Definitely ahead: D.Rose, Mayo, R.Westbrook, Love, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Hickson, Batum, George Hill, E.Gordon. Same vicinity: Beasley, Gallinari, Courtney Lee, Bayless, Jason Thompson, Hibbert, Ibaka, Mbah a Moute, Dragic
- Final grade: B-
Jrue Holiday (2009 pick #17)
- What they got: a starting PG with excellent on-ball defense and good passing instincts
- What they could have gotten: arguably, Lawson (#18), D.Collison (#21)
- Be glad they didn't get: Thabeet (#2), Flynn (#6), Jordan Hill (#8), Gerald Henderson (#12), Earl Clark (#14), Austin Daye (#15)
- Where he would go in a re-draft: about #7. Definitely ahead: Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, B.Griffin, Rubio. Same vicinity: Brandon Jennings, Lawson, D.Collison, Beaubois
- Final grade: A
Looking back at this body of work, the Sixers have done pretty well this past decade when actually drafting in the first round. No outright busts (though Jason Smith comes close) and a lot of good picks. Their track record with trades is more spotty. For second-round picks, they've had their share of busts, but it seems that all teams do. And they did pretty well with Korver and Lou picked in those spots. Your thoughts and comments welcome ...
I would've given the Iguodala pick an A+. You had him going third, you think Howard and Josh Smith ahead of him?
Good work on this.
Gotta have Dwight Howard ahead of him. Smith is a similar player but the fact he blocks shots and defends bigs probably puts him ahead of Iguodala.
Yeah, I had Josh Smith at #2, but not by much (and not until this year, when he finally "got it").
There would also be the possibility of another team drafting a scoring 2 for need (Gordon, Kevin Martin).
"Got it" = Stopped shooting threes. I think Iguodala could benefit from that as well, although to a lesser extent.
For all the praise you give the Sixers drafting they sure did miss on a bunch of those picks.
The 2007 draft, aside from Thad, was very horrible in particular.
Gotta love an organization that doesn't take any internationals what so ever.
We've got Nocioni now, yay.
Andres "TOUGHNESS" Nocioni!
And if you want to get even deeper, the two picks that have been great for the team (Dre and Jrue) have fallen to them.
The Sixers haven't really said "We are rebuilding" for the past decade and change. That is something that just needs to happen. Wouldn't snagging a Jrue/Favors/Turners nucleus save Stefanski his job?
And if you look at where they picked in those drafts, who went after their pick and what they got, they have a strong drafting record for the past decade.
I'm going to have to disagree. Look at all the players they missed.
Rondo, all the 2007 people, Ibaka, Batum, Granger, Milsap, Boozer, etc.
Its kind of depressing considering how Iverson's prime was wasted. Oh Billy King and Ed S.
When a guy is picked in the late 20's or higher, that means at least 2/3 of the league has passed on him. Saying the Sixers suck at evaluation because they passed on Ibaka when 23 other teams did as well is just silly. With rare exception, every pick that's made after say the top 5 of every draft is going to have a couple of "damn, we could've had" players who are taken after him. For where they've picked, they did well. We aren't talking about any Shawn Bradley picks here.
Could've had Penny right there.
Face it, Sixers are crappy drafters. Lets hope tomorrow isn't botched completely in some way.
I'm too lazy to go and look, but the Sixers probably didn't even scout or work out those international guys.
Honestly it's pretty hard to hit home-runs from where they have drafted from. There's a bunch of guys in the 16+ range on that list. Other than Thad at 12, Iguodala is by far the highest guy they have taken this decade. They didn't mess that up either.
The Spurs beg to differ.
Spurs don't win one championship without Tim Duncan, who was the number one pick. They don't win the first one without Robinson, ditto where he was drafted.
That doesn't mean the Spurs didn't do a great job drafting in the late parts, but that's one team that had a Top 10 player of all time. They did what they needed to do and hit on guys deep in the draft, but that's ONE team and the exception more than the norm.
Hmm, you seem to forget we used to have an all NBA top 5 talent franchise guy.
He was tiny, real fast, had a bunch of tattoos? I forget his name. Remembered he was pretty damn good though.
I do remember us botching pick after pick in the draft trying to find him worthy teammates.
Yeah, he's still my favorite player of my lifetime in anything. Still, are comparing Allen Iverson to Tim Duncan? One is probably the best PF of all-time who commanded a double-team, shot 50 percent from the field, rebounded like crazy, and was an all-around great defender (blocks, positioning, everything). The other who is a 5'10 volume shooter who was a liability defensively and made his team better with his individual brilliance, but not his teammates.
Which one is easier to find guys to play with?
They did a great job getting the Ginobili, Parkers, and Hills of the world, probably better than anyone. but just remember it all starts with Duncan. If he's not there, we look at those guys a totally different way.
Spurs had picks in the 27-30ish range.
Sixers got the Answer and then had the second and 8th picks and completely botched them, basically wasting AI's prime.
97 was a pretty crappy draft, but 98 was loaded and they messed it up. The year before they made the wrong choice in Stackhouse.
We just aren't a good drafting team. Aside from AI and Barkley we've been ALL over the place, It doesn't even seem like the Sixers have had a strategy.
What was wrong with Stackhouse at #3? No brainer for the franchise at that time.
Not really anything, that is basically a hindsight mistake.
Could of had KG and AI.
Blah blah blah.
agreed
For all the praise you give the Sixers drafting they sure did miss on a bunch of those picks.
Well, I tried to explain that I was defining an "average" pick as one in which the player would be picked in the same spot in a re-draft, and an average pick is a B (mean is a B, I think that's pretty standard in college these days).
I think if you apply the standard that a pick is good only if no subsequent picks are better, 90% of NBA teams would have D or worse draft records.
By the way, my casual observation from looking through the past 9 years of drafts showed that the percentage of busts among foreign players is much higher than among American players. There are a lot of foreign players who never play a minute in the NBA.
Thad should have 2 scores (pre-EJ and EJ).
Before EJ (before final 2 Magic playoff games), Thad was behind only Durant and Horford (and he looked like he could maybe get past Horford). At that point, he was averaged 20+ for over a month straight, shooting 50%+ FG, about 35% 3FG, about 5.5 boards (starting to slip) and 1.8 steals. At this point he was more than serviceable on D. Then the final disastrous 2 games of that series and EJ came along. Grade until this point A/A-.
After EJ, he seemed perpetually bewildered about where he was supposed to be on the court on D, Ayers 'tweaked' his shot. FG% and 3FG% go down. He starts boxing out more (his excuse for why his rebounding % plummeted). Grade for after EJ (and final 2 games of Magic series) C+.
Which is the real Thad? I guess we'll find out this year but I'd argue no one was more ill-served by EJ than Thad. It seemed they played him to his weaknesses...
Biggest question of the year for the Sixers. My guess is it's not quite as bad as the second, but the pre-EJ era was a little bit of an aberration. He was playing in the perfect system at a position that is tough to win with a guy of his skill-set playing at.
I just hope he shows better form so we could possibly have the option of moving him for something valuable.
I agree 100%.
If he gets back to his pre-EJ days he could have brought back something good in a trade. Not to mention if he were playing like that again he'd fill a much needed role for the Sixers if they decide to keep him.
We may never know if Thad can play 3 and also may never know if Marreese can play the 4; the dreams of a Sam/Spieghts/Young/Iggy/ Jrue lineup; we will never know and it hurts a bit that THEY didn!t get Collins to coach them up.
The Sixers actually had Nos. 30 (traded to Utah for 55 and draft considerations, which is nothing) and 42 in 2007. They could've had Thad Young, Rudy Fernandez or Aaron Brooks, Big Baby and Marc Gasol just making their own four picks.
I'd easily take Shannon Brown and Craig Smith over Carney. Thabo too. Craig Smith could be just as good as Glen Davis, better really, in the right situation.
I think it's about circumstance with those guys. Carney does similar stuff to Brown minus not being able to handle it as well, but Brown is on the Lakers and his contributions are more noteworthy. Same thing with Smith, which I agree about.
"As you can see, it's a short list, and there are some notable guys missing: Tyreke Evans, Gerald Henderson, Jonny Flynn and Demar Derozan. Simply put, I don't think these guys can shoot one bit and I've had my fill of guys who can't shoot. I don't care if one of them drops, I want to avoid them at all costs"
Sounds like something I wrote prior to last year's draft, right?
Hey Brian, your fantasy scenario from yesterday seems to be gaining some steam on the internet. Apparently a "well connected source" (when aren't they?) on that stupid pro sports daily site says that the Sixers are working on something "big" involving the number 4 pick. They're also discussing it on Realgm...
Like I said yesterday, I'd be extremely happy if this was a true rebuild with a core of Jrue, Turner and Favors. Right now, it's half-assed at best.
Those would be a tough couple seasons. Team might not win 25 games next year if Iguodala is gone.
you're kidding right? team would have more than 30 and would improve. Thad would get his natural position back, this team would be just fine.
Now let's be real here, say Stefanski pulls this off, do we have to change our tune about him? Who apologizes first lol?
Joe's right. The team would be garbage this season, at least, unless Collins works some serious miracles. Complete reliance on rookies and Jrue.
And Thad's natural position remains to be seen, right now I'm leaning toward 7th man.
I still think we'd have more wins than we did this season.
And I'll be the first to apologize. The big question would be whether he can survive another big losing season. Whether Snider has the patience to allow him to follow through.
Interesting stuff, don't see how Collison or Lawson will ever arguably be a better pick than Jrue. Although I was pretty shocked at how productive COllison was filling in for an injured CP3. Lawson stinks.
Lawson definitely does not stink.
Why do I get the idea that Okl. City is going after Favors? A defensive guy with no ego to worry about. They just got D.Cook and the 18th pick for a 2nd rounder and have assets out the ass.
imagine a lineup of Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Favors and Kristic (or input any center that can stretch the floor)?
that could grow into a real scare.
Scared? Not really. Their owner is not that wealthy compared to most other teams. If all those guys pan out do you think he's going to pay way above the salary cap at a dollar for dollar match? They'll keep Durant and maybe one other and move the others for picks. They need guys on their rookie contracts to afford them all.
if the market in OK city is not that hot, then the move from Seattle doesnt make much sense financially.
oh well.
They get by (since it is new it'll sell out, since their good right now it'll have attendance for a while at least). If they start to suck, they'll be in trouble. But as I recall, Oklahoma City invested a lot / gave them a lot of tax and concession breaks to get the team there.
I am envious of them getting all those super high picks and making good choices. They are sort of like the Clippers (high draft choices every year) done right.
Great read. Very good job, statman.
I can't help but say Thabo is a better player than Carney, though.
Agreed. Thabo is pretty much an elite wing defender IMO.
When evaluating recent drafts I spearate them into 3 separate categories
Larry Brown
Billy King on his Own
Ed Stefanski
Brown was an idiot, King didn't too that good on his own, Stefanski seems to listen to DiLeo a lot more
And I believe grades on people still under their rookie contracts are all incomplete
I just read a survey that the dumbest people from the United States hail from Carmen California, I wonder if Stefanski is from there.
John Welcome back, your spitfire attitude was missed around here. Your views are intriguing, I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Do you have anywhere where you post your daily musings?
The good times are coming for us Sixer fans starting tomorrow, I can't wait!
Speaking of Jasner's piece, anyone get a look at this part, about Jrue-
"He emerged as the gem of the Sixers' season, even though it took a while for Jordan to insert him in the lineup. He can shoot, he can create, he can get to the rim. The only lingering question: Is he really a good player, or did he shine because he was one of the better players on a not-very-good team?
There is a better than reasonable chance that the latter is more likely"
Why is there a 'better than reasonable chance' that he's not that good? That would be unfair saying it so early even if he was showing some bad signs but the kid was great last year in spite of a bad team. That really irked me.
That's kind of a ludicrous statement. I guess he's saying no one is capable of comparing Jrue to other players around the league, only the useless guys on the Sixers.
after oopsies with Thad and Speights, you must understand that most are hesitant to annoint Jrue as the 'future'.
I think Holiday will prove them wrong, but I understand the reservations.
All picks are a risk, we need to be reserved about anyone who gets picked. You could pick the next Gary Payton only to see him have a huge injury prior to playing a game or even something as tragic as Len Bias.
Isn't the 23rd pick (Utah to Minnesota) originally ours? It goes to Minnesota via the Sixers, right?
I'm confused if that was in the Korver/Giricek deal or the Carney/Booth cap clearing deal? Which one? Or was it something else?
I believe it was both. We got it in the Korver/Giricek deal, then we gave it to Minny in the Booth/Carney deal.
Thanks. Kind of ironic that we all are hoping for a later pick to be bought and we would have had it in hindsight. That could have been our big man, but hey, we still have Elton Brand. The shrewdness of Ed Stefanski.
Wait, no. That doesn't seem right. I think the pick Minny used for Lawson last season was the pick that went from Utah to Philly then to Minny. Then Lawson went to Denver on a draft night trade.
But if you look at the draft order (from my local newspaper) it lists the 23rd pick as Utah's and then has in parentheses 'To Minnesota via Philadelphia'. So you were right the first time, no?
Yeah, it looks like that's the case. Strange that it was pushed off so far. Here's a link with traded picks.