yesterday), these days are short on legitimate Sixers storylines. So, to give us something to talk about while Andy and Andre figure out that Andre isn't worth $30M I figured we'd use one of
cool tools. After the jump, we'll see what players had comparable stats to Thad Young through this point of his career.
I figured the best place to start would be the comps I've heard people mention in the past. DraftExpress listed Antawn Jamison as his best-case, Donyell Marshall as the worst. During his time in the league I've heard Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay and Tayshaun Prince. Let's start with these guys. Here's a look at all of their numbers through their second full season. (click the image to enlarge)
The first half of the stats above are per 36 minutes, not per game. As you can see, Thad holds his own in most of the run-of-the-mill categories. His field goal percentage is just amazing compared to this group, his rebounding numbers aren't as bad as you'd expect, when compared to this group. He also topped the group in steals per 36 as well as fewest turnovers per 36.
When we get to the advanced stats portion of the chart, Thad really starts to emerge. He led all of these players in 7 of 17 categories. Even though he played only the third-most minutes of the six, he had the highest win share total. Tayshaun Prince was the only player to have a higher win share/48 minute ranking. Odom played over 1500 more minutes than Thad and accumulated fewer win shares. Rudy Gay played 1,000 more minutes and had 4.1 fewer win shares. The final column is the one you should really pay close attention to. Out of this group, Thad was the only player who couldn't legally buy a beer by the end of his second season.
These are the five comps I've heard the most, and to be honest, I think Thad's ahead of where every one of them was after their second season.
Of this group of comps, only Jamison has been an All Star (twice). Prince made first-team All Defense, Odom and Prince have both won rings. These are some pretty successful players, but are they Thad's ceiling? I'm not sure. I don't see Thad fitting into the Odom or Prince mold. He's too gifted offensively to be more of a defense-first, offense-afterthought kind of guy. I also see him as being more versatile than Jamison, Gay and Marshall.
With this in mind, I thought we'd run a reverse search to find more comps for Thad. Let's take a look at what makes Thad unique, and see which players have achieved the same level of success in their first two seasons in the NBA.
Here are the stats and levels I used for these comps, searching the first two seasons of all forwards in the NBA since 1980 (not all stats are available for the older players):
TS% over 55%
Steals per 36 over 1.4
Win Shares over 9.0
FG attempts per 36 under 14.0
Basically, I wanted to capture players who were efficient and effective without dominating the ball. I thought about including low turnovers, but when I included turnovers under 2.0/36 minutes there were no comps. Only Thad had achieved all of those benchmarks.
Here's the list of comps:
- Charles Barkley
- James Worthy
- Derrick McKey
- Andrei Kirilenko
- Ed Pinkney
- Paul Millsap
- Nene Hilario
- Jamario Moon
Again, please keep in mind that each of these guys was at least a year or two older than Thad over the first two seasons of their careers. This list holds one anomaly in the most-versatile power forward in the past two decades, Charles Barkley. It shows why Kirilenko and Nene both got big contracts (which they've yet to live up to, for different reasons), and why Paul Millsap is in line to sign his own. Jamario Moon is an interesting case, he was 27 in his rookie season, but still put up surprisingly good numbers.
Pinckney and McKey are two guys who never showed much improvment on their sophomore seasons, but went on to have long careers nonetheless.
The most interesting name here, for me, is James Worthy. Worthy was an elite finisher, a slashing forward in the Showtime Lakers era. Magic Johnson's wingman. He was a tweener, never really rebounded well enough to be a four, wasn't quite a three either. He was always, always, an efficient scorer, though. Worthy was named one of the 50 greatest players in the NBA, so I'm obviously not comparing Thad to him now. But maybe what I'm saying is that Worthy could be Thad's ceiling, or at the very least, his goal.
Comps work both ways, so let's take a look at players with similar weaknesses in their games through their first two seasons as well.
Here's a very,
very scary comp for you. I did a search for forwards who have played more than 4,000 minutes and averaged less than 6.0 rebounds per 36 minutes and averaged less than 1.5 assists per 36 minutes. Since 1980 only 2 players have achieved these levels. Thaddeus Young and Al Thornton. Typically, power forwards will average more than 6 rebounds per 36 and small forwards will average more than 1.3 assists per 36. Thad and Thornton are stuck in between somewhere.
Personally, I think once Thad settles in at the three (if he's ever allowed to), and settles into the Princeton Offense, we'll see his assist numbers climb, and hopefully he'll at least maintain his rebounding numbers. If he's going to reach that Worthy goal, he's going to have to contribute more in other areas, hopefully he'll be able to do that while still keeping his impressive peripherals, well, impressive.
Who would you compare Thad to? Use the comments to discuss and if you'd like to use stats to back up your argument, I highly recommend linking to your results from
B-R.com.
I have a couple of guys who Thad reminds me of (style of play, size and potential upside). Now of the ones I have Thad scores the least but he shoots much less than these guys (plus he plays more minutes). However, that being said, if Thad gets to be the primary scorer for this team (gets the most shots) I think he can end up like these guys. Also, Thad rarely had the ball unless it was to shoot (doesn't pound the ball much). As he settles in the new offense and gets a bigger role I think his assists will go up. If you look at the 36 minute stats he is very close to all of them (other than he needs to shoot more).
Of the modern guys, Thad is a more athletic version of Carmelo. Carmelo shoots a lot more and gets to the line a lot more but Thad is a lot more efficient. They both can slash, post up other small forwards with ease and have very good mid-range games. At this stage, they rebound, steal and block similiarly. Frankly, if Thad can work on going to the line he'd be almost exactly like Carmelo but better. You wanted a better upside for Thad (if he develops more) I'd say he'd be an efficient version of Carmelo who can play better D.
Of the older guys (who some might not remember) Thad reminds me of Cedric Ceballos and Mark Aguirre. Ceballos in that he was really good in the low post and was super efficient. Cedric was a lot better rebounder (much better than I remembered) but his other numbers were similiar. Mark Aguirre as he was sort of the prototype of Carmelo (but more efficient and was closer to Thad as a rebounder).
Here is the comparison. Assuming Thad shoots a little more and goes to the line more his numbers are quite comparable to these guys. Most of these guys got to me 'the man' on their team even a few years in:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=anthoca01&y1=2005&p2=youngth01&y2=2009&p3=cebalce01&y3=1992&p4=aguirma01&y4=1983
Melo really improved his defense this past season. I like these comps. He's such a hard player to get a handle on.
I am not as concerned about Thad becoming an all around player as most people because we have our "jack of all trades" in Iggy.His early body of work reminds me of W.Berry with his flip shots,etc. and knack for finding the rim from all angles.My ceiling for Thad? A guy that gets 22 to 25 p.p.g. efficiently, ala Dantley and B.King.Both these players scored as much on the block as outside despite being small forwards.I think Jamieson is also a good comparison and hopefully Thad can expand his range like Jamieson has.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=grangda01&y1=2007&p2=youngth01&y2=2009
I think Thad is Danny Granger waiting to happen.
Check it out.
CSTH
Nice. Very, very good comp.
I've brought up some old time players in previous discussions when discussing Young. The two names being Worthy and Dantley.
It will be tough for Thad to match either of these HOF players, but they bother wer inside out tweeners who scored efficiently through a combination of smoothness and craftiness.
You could probably throw Gervin in there given I hope Thad's spin will become like Gervin's finger role- a smooth signature move. But Gervin was smaller than the other players (a G/F as opposed to combo F.)
I don't see many current NA players as having similar games as Thad. And he has a long way to go to deserve mention next to the three HOF guys I listed- and I doubt he gets there. Partly I don't know exactly where Thad;s ceiling lies, and also being a Sixer might hold him back (not exactly like getting to play on the Showtime Lakers.)
Thank you again Brian for giving some meat to chew on instead of junk food of the Summer League opinions! Very interesting and encouraging stuff. I don't know whether we realize that we are sitting on the edge of possibly a dynasty if we are patient with our players. WE have 3 young forwards w/ possibilities of superstardom along w/ 2 young guards that the jury is still out on. Our biggest weakness, ironically, is our Center position. I guess we can see the handwriting on the wall for next June's draft.
Another question. Why are people so quick to judge or throw out Lou and even Jrue (seen online alot) without them even being tested in a "REAL" COACH led 76ers team? I do not consider Mo or Tony 'REAL' coaches as neither of them ever won 1 playoff series.
Well, while I think judging what Holiday can be before he plays a single NBA game or has a real NBA practice is out of hand, I can mention why I say Lou isn't a point guard, mostly because the coach doesn't matter in that regard.
I watch Lou Williams on the court, running an offense, any offense, and he doesn't seem to have point guard instincts, he's a scorer, he gets points by shooting, that's what he is, and that's what he has always been. I don't see court vision or the natural instinct to create for his teammates when I watch lou play, and for me those are innate (can't be taught) abilities independent of whoever the coach is. The sixers try to make him a point because he's short, but I don't see it, and that's fine, I think he's a solid bench guy and would rather him be the back up 2 guard than willie green.
However, the sixers disagree with me.
Lou's been around for a while now, fair or not, at least people have made their judgment of him based on seeing him play in the NBA. He's still young, but there's a body of work. Anyone ripping Jrue at this point is most likely still aboard the Lawson bandwagon and probably won't be able to admit Jrue was a good pick until he's a proven starter in the league.
I should think that would go for just about any pick, ultimately. There's a difference, however, between expecting Jrue to be a good pick and hoping he turns out a good pick. There's haters who only see one side, homers who only see the other and realists who can see a bit of both.
fair point on the evaluation. A realist would say through his first two games in this meaningless league the defense has been good the offense has been bad. Anyone trying to claim more than that based on what they've seen/heard in Orlando has some other motive.
In full agreement.
I agree but don't see that from many people the last few days online.
BTW, I honestly don't understand the "hatred" for Lou. I just don't think he has been given a fair shot, has NEVER been well coached and saw alot of positive adjustments last year from him. I am not saying the "Lou haters" are wrong, I am just saying I think it is too soon.
Can someone explain what I am missing, please.
There's two things you could call lou hatred but I don't call it that per se
A. He had quite a good season in 07/08, then he signed his free agent contract, and many see his 08/09 season as a step backwards, not forwards, and while you say he didn't have good coaches, he had the same system, but he didn't show improvement to many - that's a worry
B. he's not a point guard, to many (to me like I stated above), and it's not his fault that the sixers keep trying him as one, but he's just not one, so i don't know that i'd call it hatred, i just don't like seeing lou out of position because it magnifies the deficiencies, if he's brought in to score and draw fouls, that's fine, though last year he wasn't as good at that as the year before, but when he's brought in to run the offense and doesn't, it's aggravating.
No matter what anyone thinks I only truly 'hate' two players on the sixers, sam and willie, i want them gone, i find their bad vastly outweights their good...lou i'm just frustrated by the step back and the sixers thinking he's a point.
So that's why I want a vet pg or at least an open competitioin in training camp cause you can't hand lou williams the keys to running an nba offense
I see your points. You may not be the best to answer my question but I agree w/ all your thoughts except that I do not think Lou has been given a chance to play point and practice point w/ AMiller around. But, I definitely think they need a vet pg, if nothing more, as a teacher and back up assuming Lou thrives. He certainly is not a teacher for Holiday right now.
He was the back up point guard, he was given the chance to run the point, and I have seen nothing that tells me he can. Saying that Miller was in the way doesn't hold water with me, he's on the court, in games, at point, he doesn't seem to take to it instinctively.
I think with all that you admitted in point A (he had a good year 07/08), combined with the fact that he was asked to be a scorer this past season (I'm sure I've seen you mention this point here before, am I wrong?), then I think it's fair to give him a little more room. Yes? He was drafted out of high school if memory serves and was more or less ignored til two years ago. Given the learning curve for points, we couldn't really expect to see a great point guard out of him just yet could we?
Which leads to the second point re what can we really expect from Lou. What's his ceiling? I think you're right that he has more of scorer's shoot-first mentality. He's got quicks and a strong handle so he knows he can get by most defenders and has a surprising knack for finishing for such a small guy. He gets more of a kick out of scoring than layin the perfect pass, that much seems clear. But does that mean that he can't be a competent point?
I think anyone with good ball-handling skills, y'know, can make some moves and dribble with his head up, has the tools to at least be at a 5 or maybe 6 asst/40 point guard. It's the guys with exceptional vision and who're always looking to find the open man or create an open man situation that are the exceptional point guards. I think it's fair to say Lou's probably not going to be that guy. But it doesn't mean he can't be decent enough (say 5asts/40, 1.65 A/TO), which is supposedly all this offensive scheme needs. The jury is still out on whether Lou can be corralled enough to learn the value in creating shots for his teammates. But natural instincts can be controlled with reps and a strong guide.
Not sayin he has a ton of rope left, and not predicting he will be a stunning point guard, just that it's not fair to say it's a write-off just yet. If it works out, it's a nice one-two punch between offensive-minded/gifted Lou and defensively-minded/gifted Jrue. Hit 'em with the ole Lou-Jrue!
You read my mind, perfectly. Thank you!
I love optimism. Thad is a unique player that can achieve great things if he continues to put the work in. I think we have something special here, and if the Worthy-Carmelo-Dantley comps turn out to hold water, we would have the best wing tandem in the league on both sides of the ball. I just love watching the kid play and can't wait to see his continued development.