 Looking Ahead: Samuel Dalembert Part two of our Looking Ahead series will feature none other than the Haitian Sensation, Sammy Dalembert. After the jump we'll try to use historical statistics and player comps to guesstimate what we can expect from our center in the coming season. Click here for the complete Looking Ahead archive.
First, the baseline. I'm going to use per game numbers, because I find them easier to swallow than per minute, or per 36 minutes. Sammy averaged 33.2 minutes if you want to do the math. Also, all stats used below were grabbed from basketball-reference.com.
2007-2008 Minutes/game: 33.2 Points/game: 10.5 Rebounds/game: 10.4 (career high) Assists/game: 0.5 Steals/game: 0.5 Blocks/game: 2.3 Turnovers/game: 1.9 FG %: 51.3 3pt %: 0 FT %: 70.7 Last season was a coming of age story for Dalembert. He spent the first five years of his career learning the game (he's still in the process). Billy King gave him what looked like a head-scratcher of a contract and he's been trying to live up to it. In '07-08, he started to do the things this team needs him to do, guard the basket, clean the glass, and at times he was a dominant defensive force against some of the best big men in the game. His hustle was up, his intensity was up and he was able to maintain the energy through all 82 games (the second year in a row he's played all 82 games). There is obviously room for improvement, mostly in the hands and maturity departments, but Sammy put in the work and it paid dividends. I've seen many Sixers fans talk about Sammy's ugly jumper, bad hands, et cetera and while to a degree the criticisms are fair, I do think he's under appreciated. Take a look at his numbers above, now take a look at the company those numbers put him in. In the past 20 years, a player has averaged 10 points/game, 10 rebounds/game, 2 block/game while playing in more than 70 games a total of 60 times. Here are the players, and the number of times they accomplished it.
Now let's get into a couple of comps, first age-based. I loosened the statistical requirements a bit, here are the other 6 players who averaged 9.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2 blocks per game, while playing at least 70 games, in their age 26 season.
Mutombo came into the league at 25 and was consistently good for the first decade of his career. There really wasn't much growth in any statistical category. Ben Wallace is a good comparison. His defense and rebounding were better than Dalembert's, but Sammy's offensive game is more developed. Both players spent the first 4-5 seasons of their careers trying to harness physical skills. Both saw significant jumps in production in their sixth season. Wallace's upward trend continued for the next 4 seasons before a steep fall in his 10th season. Looking Ahead There are a couple of pitfalls Sammy needs to avoid this season. He wants to be the man. He wants to be the big guy in the middle. He wants shots. He's not going to be any of those things playing alongside Elton Brand, and he's not going to get the same kind of shots he got last season. I think we're going to see less of Sammy 15 feet away from the hoop, we're going to see less jumpers. If Sammy can get his mind around this, and play the sidekick role for Brand down low, he has a chance to greatly increase his production. Brand is going to draw a ton of attention. This is going to create creases and openings for Sammy around the basket. Iguodala and Miller will find him. He should get easier opportunities, all he needs to do is catch the ball. If he can rise to the challenge on defense, and the boards, on a nightly basis, get out and run the floor, and keep his eyes open under the hoop, he's going to have a huge season. He may not have his number called as often, but when he does get the ball, he should be in great position to score. He needs to check his ego, let the game come to him on offense, and exert his will on defense. Mo Cheeks is going to have a lot to do with Sammy's success or failure this year. If he can manage Sammy's expectations, and pride, he's got a shot to continue his development. If Sammy starts acting like a petulant child, his effectiveness is going to drop. I'm leaning toward Mo being able to handle Sammy better than the Canadian national team could. Taking all of this into account, here is my early prediction for Sammy's stat line for 2008-09: Minutes/game: 34 Points/game: 12.0 Rebounds/game: 9.5 Assists/game: 0.5 Steals/game: 0.5 Blocks/game: 2.5 Turnovers/game: 2.0 FG %: 55 3pt %: 0 FT %: 70 Thoughts in the comments, as usual. 
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I think this is on point. So much depends on Sammy's head. If he buys in and focuses on dominating at the defensive end, he'll be fine. If he decides the world needs to see more of his offensive game, we have a small problem. In your projections, the one area I think may be a bit off is his blocks. I think they will go up, as he will play more weakside and help defense (Brand will guard the stronger post players), which should get him more rejections and make the Sixers a better defensive team.
Offensively, I wonder about his little jumper. He'll never have a go-to post move, but that baseline J has actually gotten much better over the last two years. This season he can get that shot any time he wants it. If he can hit it, he can become a niche producer on offense. (Think Charles Oakley, Kurt Thomas, etc.)
I had his blocks up a tick, not that much though. You could be right, coming from the weak side should help.
i agree with Matt. if anything, Sammy probably gets more jumpers this year because Brand likes to play on the low block. putting Sammy at the mid-high post leaves him free to shoot his 15-footer or flash to the basket for easy looks.
Sammy could get more jumpers, easily. If he winds up taking a bunch more jumpers, though, something is wrong. He's clearly the 5th option on offense at this point, by a large margin. Lobs for dunks and put-backs should probably be the extent of his offensive game, with an extremely rare jumper thrown in just to keep him happy.
I like the hi-low game when you have two skilled bigs (with the better passer of the two at the high post), but Sammy doesn't fit the bill.
Sam seems to love his jumper, but he really shouldn't cause he's really really bad at it. Instead of working on his jumper developing some of the fundamentals on offense that he has not yet developed would be better...posting up...dribbling...passing from the post...these are skills that it would be nice for sam to learn.
The addition of brand means that sam really should be little to no part of the organized offense now that there's FINALLY a big man with an offensive game on this team in god knows how long.
I am with Matt and Noah
contrary to what many Sixers fans feel I am ok with Sam shooting (some) jumpers, I think his range has got longer over the years and clearly he has become comfortable facing the basket: he now feels he can hit them, which is nice.
His form is also pretty good, and his FT %, high for a C and always increased through the years, is a confirmation that he worked on his shot and it paid off
of course he shouldn't get carried away and must mix those outside shots with putbacks, alley oops, dishes etc, but 3-4 mid range Js per night would be ok.
Like you guys said, Brand will draw a lot of attention in the low post, Sam could stand around the FT line and either wait for the kick out and shoot the J or cut quickly to the paint for an easy basket
Brian, great job as usual, I don't think Sam's PPG will be up to 12, I expect more a small decrease (same could be with his RPG), but overall I'm pretty sure he will go on improving and the team will benefit
Man whats wrong with focusing on just defense, rebounding and shot blocking ?
It seemed to work out pretty well for Ben Wallace. If Sammy scores 8 PPG and is a shot blocking/rebounding/defensive monster I would be thrilled. Think Garnett without the points.