Sixers Face Tough Test In ORL On paper, this one is a loss. The Magic excel in the biggest area of weakness for the Sixers, they're 42-16 on the season, 22-7 at home. They score more than the Sixers, they hold their opponents to fewer points. It looks like a mismatch, and it may be. After the jump we'll take a look at the stats and try to figure out a way the Sixers can make it play out differently on the court than it does on paper.  Before we get into the particulars of this game, I want to vent a little bit. As I was doing my research into the teams, I figured I'd take a look at how each team had performed in the second game of back-to-backs. Here, check out their records: Orlando: 7-3 on the second night of back-to-backs. Philadelphia: 5-9 on the second night of back-to-backs. The thing that jumped out at me was that the Sixers have played 4 more back-to-backs than Orlando. Then I figured, OK, it'll even out over the remainder of the season. Well, it doesn't. I took a look at both team's schedules and Orlando only has 6 more, including tonight. The Sixers have 7 more, including tonight. 21 back-to-backs on the Sixers' schedule, only 16 for Orlando. I didn't have time to go through all the teams, but I did find that Boston also only has 16 back-to-backs on their schedule. I understand that superstars have things handed to them in this league. They get every touch call, they get to the line, they don't get travels called. What I didn't realize was that the league gave them easier schedules. I mean, the Sixers are playing more than 25% of their games at a disadvantage. This is the opposite of what the NFL does with their schedule. I'd love to do a more in-depth analysis of the league-wide schedule, but that's going to have to wait for another day when I have more time. For now, just realize the league has screwed the Sixers, but it's something they'll have to overcome. Back to tonight's game. Since losing Jameer Nelson to a shoulder injury, Orlando is 6-5. Since acquiring Rafer Alston to replace him, they're 3-2 with losses to Detroit at home and Chicago on the road. This is not the same team without Nelson, and they are beatable. Advantage number one for the Sixers is Miller over Alston. Miller can, and will, abuse Alston on the blocks, on the perimeter and pretty much everywhere else. Expect the Sixers to go to this match-up early and often. Andre played a healthy 38 minutes last night, so let's hope he's got enough left in his legs to properly punish Alston. Andre Iguodala has a big athletic advantage over Hedo, as well. He should be looking to make up for last night's poor showing in New York. One more advantage for the Sixers, but this has more to do with their lineup in general than the Magic. When the Sixers last visited them in Florida, they had Elton Brand and Dalembert down low. The Magic took advantage of the Brand/Lewis match-up down low, with Lewis stretching the floor. This time, Thad will be playing the four, and he can follow Lewis all over the court (let's just hope he doesn't lose him like he did at the end of the game we will not speak of). Finally, my key to the game. Sam Dalembert, Theo Ratliff and Marreese Speights absolutely must be left on an island with Dwight Howard. I don't care if he scores 40 and goes to the line 20 times, do not double him. Orlando's offense isn't about riding Howard, it's about using Howard down low to open up their three-point shooters. Dwight Howard alone is not going to beat you, I don't care if he dominates Sammy. If the Sixers lose this game, it will be because they were killed from three. Do not leave shooters to double Howard. The tip is at 7pm, and unfortunately, I'm going to have to watch this one on DVR. Family obligations and all. So use the comments to leave your thoughts during the game and I'll chime in with mine later tonight. 43 Comments | Leave a commentLeave a commentLatest Posts• Nothing Free About Them • Another Missed Opportunity • First-Person Report: Sixers vs. Magic • Sixers Face Tough Test In ORL • Sixers Hold On To Sweep Knicks • Two Sweeps In A Row • Know Your Role • Update From Ed Stefanski • Shooting Yourself In The Foot • Making A Point • Six @ Wiz Pregame • Dusting Yourself OffSearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM PhillyArena Heard In The Cheap Seats | ||||||||||||||||
Start speights - get howard in foul trouble - and hope the andres aren't too tired.
Brian, reading this makes me think you think the game is in orlando. It's in Philly right?
Yeah, I misread the schedule.
Orlando is only -2 tonight. This one isn't a guaranteed loss on paper. In Orlando? Probably. In Philly? Nah, but I still think Orlando will win, especially after that loss last night.
This team really isn't the same without Jameer. I was extremely critical of Jameer last season. He grew on me, improved, and made me eat crow.
Wouldn't it make sense for SVG to put Rafer on Willie and Lee on Miller? Sure, Miller, the cagey vet, will take Lee to school at times, but Lee's length and energy could bother Miller a bit.
And watch out for Marcin Gortat. He is a guy who will hurt you in his 10 minutes of action without you even realizing. When Howard leaves the floor, Gortat comes in and picks up Howards rebounding almost completely. He also patrols the middle and doesn't allow many lay ups.(but he fouls) Obviously, he isn't Howard,(a top 5 NBA player) but he has shown over the past 2 seasons to be effective. His career PER is 17 and he never shoots. That is pretty impressive.
Assuming orlando is smart - i predict sam goes to the bench in less than 120 seconds of game time
And that would be very bad for the Sixers since Sam is probably their 3rd best player.
If that's true - that's just bad for the sixers - but it's probably also incorrect.
Andre Miller
Andre Iguodala
Thaddeus Young
Not to mention that Sam's offensive game isn't even the best of the 'big men' currently active.
You think Thad has been better this year? Really? You must be kidding...
Thad has played 4/7 of his minutes at PF, so do the math and compare his stats to the league average. Then compare Sam's to the average Center. I might do it really quick. At work, and not really anything to do. I already know(95% sure) I am right though, so why bother? If I am wrong, I will eat crow, but I highly doubt it.
As far as I can tell - you've never been wrong - ever and you'll look at a different set of stats then i will.
Mine will start here
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809PHI.HTM
You - you'll look at points per game and rebounds per game - the counting stats - you'll probably over value blocks as well
You'll also notice on the link i provided you 'percentage of minutes' - do you think the 3rd best player on a team only plays 52% minutes of the time his team plays? Not usually.
Various explanations exist for this - none of them good - being foul prone, being bad in important situations, not having the confidence of the coaching staff.
If OKC wanted a big man and was willing to give up expiring contracts - why didn't they make the same deal for sam they made for chandler - contracts are pretty much the same.
I think we should table this or bring it to another thread. This is a game thread. I'll post up on "Sixers Hold On To Sweep..."
Sam is not better than Thad, but his play is probably more vital to the team's success at this point. when he is defending well & grabbing rebounds he ignites them getting out on the break. they can live with Thad having poor games, but they struggle immensely when Sam gets into foul trouble.
i agree with Brian that it is absolutely crucial they do not double Superman tonight & allow Orlando's shooters to roam free on the perimeter.
Then a lot of minutes from Theo are necessary or Howard will go for like 35 and 20
we've done a relatively good job of keeping him in check so far this year. he's averaging 17.5 ppg & 11 rbs in our 2 losses.
Mike,
My feeling from your post is that you seem to value SFs over Centers. Correct me if I am wrong.
How about this, Mike, is Thad a better SF than Dalembert is a Center? Shouldn't we compare them against their peers?
Now see - there you go changing your argument again.
You said Sam is the '3rd best player' on the sixers.
Asking a question, isn't changing an argument. If I asked you if the sky was green it would just be a question. Perhaps, I was planning on listening to his arguments?
Look, we destroyed this thread. Blah.
i don't know what about my post would lead you to believe that.
i meant it is more important right now for the Sixers that Sam plays well than Thad
Didn't see this before I just posted. Or the one saying you are leaving. Another day maybe then.
Mike,
"Sam is not better than Thad, but his play is probably more vital to the team's success at this point."
This says Sam is more valuable, but not better. Typically, but not always, more valuable players are better. The "difference between the back ups" is one argument. The value of players at certain positions is another.
"when he is defending well & grabbing rebounds he ignites them getting out on the break."
This is what centers pretty much do, meaning rebounding, blocking shots, and playing D. You say Sammy is good at these things, leading me to believe that you would believe him to be a good center.
i'm headed out to the game. i'll try to have a write-up when i get home.
2:40 - Sam to the bench - 2 fouls
The Magic however only went to Howard in one offensive set in that 2:40
I dont care if Howard isn't in right now, if Evans tries to make one more move to/around the basket he should be yanked. Nothing pisses me off more than watching him pretend to have offensive skill.
I blame his team mates for passing him the ball on the offensive end - you can pass to Speights in the post or Evans in the post, and you choose evan? 500 dollar fine
Hell yeah Howard w/ 3.
JJ Redick ejected - funny
Holy geez
Howard having a really crappy game, and it's mostly on him...
BTW Brian - I think the NBA schedule has always been a mess and unfair to cetain teams - why does ANY TEAM have five games off in a season - and the back to backs - just another example - the NBA really needs to put some work into the fairness of their schedule. I know you gotta deal with west coast nonsense and everything - and things like the 'ice capades trip' and the spurs rodeo trip, but a little common sense.
Personally, I don't think you should play a back to back if you have to cross from one time zone to another - I don't, on road trips back to backs should be less likely than at home...
I've often thought that it's unbalanced but I have no idea how to go about researching that :)
God I am really goin to miss Andre Miller next year assuming he walks.
I'm not assuming he walks - I hold faith that the sixers think the economy, shrinking cap and the 2010 free for all are going to dry up a market and they'll be able to get miller on a solid 3 year deal while drafting a PG to back him up for those 3 years....if he walks for nothing i'll be a little pissed cause they knew what was coming and didn't trade him.
Willie G with two good ones in a row, games that is.
Willie G with two good ones in a row, games that is.
Lou with his second leave his feet before he passes.
This is one heck of a 4th quarter meltdown.
Hang in there, it ain't over yet.
This team can't get a stop. This is pathetic. Andre Miller has to try to beat the Magic by himself.
Green with four good ones in a row ... Limited Howard to 12 points and eight boards ... Bad error not getting back on Gortat for an easy dunk in a two-point game.
We had this game, then went 5 minutes without a field goal to throw it away.
We were doubling Howard all night, and finally paid the price. Magic shooters had a lot of good looks throughout the game, and they started hitting them in the 4th quarter. That was the turning point.
If the other team is taking a ton of 3s and hitting a pretty good % (and the Magic took 37 and hit 40%+) really there isn't any way you'll win the ball game (unless you shoot 60%+) or get to the free throw line an obscene amount. I'm thinking in the playoffs, the Magic would be about the worst matchup for the Sixers as they bomb away constantly and hit a very high %.
I was at the game. I could not believe Green and Williams was leaving the 3 pt guy WIDE OPEN, time after time. But, on the other hand, I think Sam is the reason for the loss. I am starting to think that as Sammy goes, we go. I am not happy to say that. And, I do not mean to dump on Sammy, he has played very good overall for the past couple months. If our center's could have guarded Howard, maybe we would have won?????? Never know.
Summary, overall, good game and not a bad loss. Just a sad one in my opinion. We need to teach our guards how to guard a 3 pt shooter.
really? i was at the game too and thought it was just about as bad a loss as they've had at home this season. i'm still seething.
I don't think the problem is L-Will or Green not knowing how to guard a shooter. I think it was obviously a conscious decision by the coaching staff Not to cover the shooters. How did they come to this game plan is beyond me.