Baby ... Bathwater ... Elton Brand Trade Rumors You can choose whichever platitude makes you happy: Throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Cutting off your nose to spite your face. They all apply to the Elton Brand trade rumors we've all been hearing. After the jump I'll give you my take on the situation. Let me start by saying I'm not against trading Elton Brand, in theory. If the Suns called today and offered Amare Stoudemire for Elton Brand and a few draft picks, I'd do it. No one is untouchable on this roster, and there are probably only 2 or 3 guys in the entire league who are entirely untouchable. If you get blown away, you make the deal. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about why trading Elton Brand for anything but top dollar makes no sense whatsoever at this point. The arguments for trading Brand, at least the ones I've read, go something like this.
Instead of falling for the same knee-jerk reaction the media is trying to lure us into, let's look deeper. What was responsible for the slow start? Here is the list I've come up with, in no particular order:
This leaves us with a series of questions the team needs to answer. Until you know the answer to them, trading Elton Brand for less than top dollar makes zero sense.
Brand came back, the Sixers beat the Knicks (who have won 5/6 games, by the way, including a win against playoff-bound Atlanta last night, a win over Houston and a win over Phoenix), then lost to the New Orleans Hornets on the road and all hell broke loose. Suddenly, people knew Brand would never fit with this team based on 31 minutes of game action under Tony DiLeo. 31 minutes designed to do nothing more than build EB's wind back up for his eventual return to the starting lineup. Raise your hand if you thought signing Elton Brand was a good move when the Sixers made it back in July. (Everyone here should have his hand in the air with the exception of Ian from Inside the Iggles. I think Dannie from Recliner GM may have said something as well, but I can't find the comment.) If you believed in the move then, you should be eager to finally see this team at full strength, under good leadership, now. Over the next couple of weeks, as Brand gets back into game shape, all of the questions above will be answered, one way or the other. We need to have some patience. Let Brand get back into the starting lineup, let him get healthy, let DiLeo figure out how he's going to utilize him. I'm not asking for a boatload of patience, I'm just asking that we give this guy, this team and this coach a fair shake when they have all their parts on the court. We haven't really seen it yet, and keep this in mind. In the limited sample size we do have of Elton Brand in uniform and Tony DiLeo as the head coach, the Sixers are 5-1. That record means next to nothing, but it's still a much larger sample size than the 31 minutes which caused this panic in the first place. So let's get the discussion kicked off on the right foot with a relevant question for you guys. What's a fair evaluation period for EB and DiLeo? 10 games in the starting lineup? 20? Or more accurately, do you think we're going to have enough time before the trading deadline to get enough of a look at this team with EB to decide if he's the right guy or not? 23 Comments | Leave a commentLeave a commentLatest Posts• Chad Ford Is At It Again • Wh-Wha-What? • Baby ... Bathwater ... Elton Brand Trade • Party At Sam's House • A Statement Game In Houston • An Uneasy Feeling • Speights Enters Doghouse • A Word For Our Sponsor • Back Under • A Road Test • The Albatross. • The Giant.SearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM PhillyArena Heard In The Cheap Seats | ||||||||||||||||
You need to give them this season. For one thing, these things take time. Each combination needs time to develop, and there are several combinations that Coach needs to experiment with. More than that, though, EB is a base year player. It makes no sense to trade him now because you couldn't get back value, unless you could get someone to give you a young stud, which probably isn't happening.
Brian, since you're becoming a stat maven, a question: Can you break out Dre and Thad's' 3-point % by position? It looks to me like they both struggle more from the perimeter when they slide down to the 2 and 3, respectively, but I don't actually know if the data support that.
Actually, Brand isn't a BYC. The penalty only applies if a guy got a big raise, year-over-year. Brand is making less than he was last season.
"Brian, since you're becoming a stat maven, a question: Can you break out Dre and Thad's' 3-point % by position? It looks to me like they both struggle more from the perimeter when they slide down to the 2 and 3, respectively, but I don't actually know if the data support that."
I'll try to find the exact data, but according to 82games.com, here are their respective percentages (eFG%, overall shots, not just 3's) at the positions:
Iguodala:
SG: 44.5%
SF: 52.9%
Thad:
SF: 55.2%
PF: 50.2%
Now, the big question is whether these are correlative or causal. Was Andre Iguodala shooting poorly because he was playing SG, or is his percentage bad because he was struggling at the beginning of the year, which happened to coincide with the time he was playing SG?
First, it bears mentioning that Iguodala (and Williams and Miller) historically struggle to start the year.
Last year Iguodala shot only 41% while committing 4.1 turnovers per game in November. He went on to average 20.8 points per game on 47.2% shooting with only 2.0 turnovers after the all-star break.
I think the notion that Andre Iguodala can't play the SG is generally wrong. There's very little difference in the roles that are asked between the two position. There might be a slight difference in the footspeed of defenders, but I think it's very slight.
I think what's more important is complementing skillsets. You can have a "Big Guard" and a "Shooting Forward" and still run your offense fine. If Iguodala was playing the 2 with Rashard Lewis at the 3, I think Andre would be similarly successful.
In years past, he actually played better at SG.
2006-2007:
SG: 20.9 PER, 48.6% efg%
SF: 18.3 PER, 45.7%
2005-2006:
SG: 17.1 PER, 56%
SF: 14.8 PER, 52.8%
2004-2005:
SG: 15.2 PER, 55.1%
SF: 12.2 PER, 48.9%
Now, the key here is that those previous years when he was playing SG (his minutes were generally split 50/50 at SG/SF, or close to it), Kyle Korver was getting the bulk of the minutes at SF. Different dynamic, different pairing, different results.
The key, to me, is Thaddeus Young. I'm fairly confident that Young will eventually be a consistent 36-37% 3 pt shooter. The key's consistent. He's not there yet. And because of that, the lane gets clogged when Iguodala and Young a paired on the wing (with Andre Miller making matters worse).
If we had a more traditional PG with range (say, Deron Williams or Calderon), or Young was a consistent threat from 3, I don't think Iguodala's a concern at the 2. But with Miller's impending free agency, and how hard it is to pin a timeframe on Young's learning curve, it's hard to say how close we are to that point.
It's also worth pointing out that the Miller/Iguodala/Young/Brand/Dalembert combination, despite the struggles Iguodala had during that time, were a very good +63 during their time on the court. That combination has been by far our best defensive group. Which only makes it ever the more necessary that they get their offensive struggles straightened out.
I like the logic here, and I'd agree wholeheartedly except for one thing. When you pair Iguodala and Green on the wings, you're actually getting worse three-point shooting. Green is at 33%, Thad is at 35% right now, and I think they'll keep moving in opposite directions. I agree that they need Thad to keep developing as a three-point threat, but I don't think playing the three-point shooting of Thad and Iggy on the wings allows teams to clog the lanes any more than Green and Iggy on the wings. I think it was just a case of a slow start for Iggy. Or at least that's my hope at this point.
I think with the coaching change and the shoulder injury, we probably have to wait until the end of the regular season (we'll make the playoffs for sure) to have a fair and accurate assessment.
He could be such a great defensive player for us though. There will not be many games in which he can block six shots but it's not unrealistic that he can average about 2 blocks per game, rebound the ball well, make it hard for opposing bigs to back down on him and provide the best pick n roll defense on the team.
Offensively I'll be fine if he can get us 17 PPG, I think we can get by with moderate scoring as long as we crank up the intensity defensively.
Last night, I noticed a couple times when he was playing the five that he actually sucked his man out of the lane by setting picks at the top of the key, it opened up driving lanes for Lou, Miller and Iggy on different occasions. Good to see.
I think the regular season is a fair trial period, though I hope we see tangible results before then, obviously.
I was in complete support of the deal given the options. I preferred Brand over Josh Smith 100% because I didn't feel Smith provided anything/much more to the team that we didn't already have by sticking Thad at the 4.
I thought we need to have an element of a traditional half-court grind it out offensive game to compete on nights when teams do a good job of limiting the fast break. I believed Brand could be that element both in the post and in the pick-and-roll.
What I question now is his health. He does not look fully recovered to me physically. I understand rust that takes (some) time. But I didn't like his lack of athleticism in the low post, driving to the basket and finishing in traffic early on. Then he got hurt and postponed further examination.
The reason I personally jumped on the Brand rumor is more about the thought they would consider trading him. Not proactively wanting him gone. I have said as you have no one on this roster is untouchable and I see we both subscribe to the idea that there are only a handful of guys that are in this league. But considering the newness of Brand in Philly, the changing of coaches and poor play from other guys I thought that essentially made him untouchable in Stefanski's eyes for the time being.
Also rumor was so without detail people just went crazy. I personally just take Ford's comment as people probably have inquired about Brand and Stefanski didn't say "get the hell out of here he is off limit" and that could be read as Brand is available. I made it clear on my blog that I don't believe the Sixers are actively shopping him like they probably are with Sammy.
With that said your last bullet point above is the long-term issue I think the Sixers have. I am just a believer that you can't win a championship with a bunch of 2nd bananas and that is what I always have thought of Brand, Dala and Miller. The Detroit-model as everyone has coined it worked once in the last 25 years.
Sorry about that. I thought you were one of the dissenting voices when he was signed, but I could never find the comment. It was obviously someone else.
The 2nd banana thing is a valid question. I'm still not sure who's going to have the ball in the closing seconds. It's been Iggy recently, and he's done a much better job of converting. We'll have to see what happens going forward, because there's no clear-cut answer to that question right now and it could be a problem.
I think the sixers should keep brand, but I think they should have shut him down when he separated his shoulder. I don't think he was fully rehabbed from his first surgery before he separated his shoulder and I'd rather they have taken more time and fully rehabbed both until they were 100% sure they were 100% - I personally just don't feel that he is yet.
I don't think he'll prove out to be injury prone - to me these weren't 'repetetive' type injuries - the separated shoulder was especially - some weird play in a game where someone sort of scoops under him and accidentally slams him to the ground.
My only concern is that by bringing him back too fast that the healing process takes too long - but that's purely speculative on my part - i have no insight to whether or not it's true
I have the same concerns, but now that he's back, I'm trying to ignore them. The chance for re-injury is very high, but he looks 100% to me. He's still playing very aggressively, especially on defense. Hopefully, some luck will shine on the Sixers in this regard.
A big concern I have with EB is the fact the he was the best player on a (mostly) bad team for most of his career, which could easily make those 20-10 career numbers misleading. I definitely supported the move, but hey…. That’s what fans are for…
There are definitely guys who inflate their scoring numbers on bad teams, but usually that means a drop in efficiency. They're taking too many shots, not converting at a high rate because all they care about is getting their points. That was never the case with Brand. I think efficiency translates on any team, and he was one of the most efficient PFs in the game for those seasons in L.A.
Sure hasn't translated yet, although that's clearly more a function of his health than coming to a better team. Another aspect of inflated numbers on bad teams, though, is, you know, the guy who looks efficient on paper but really isn't the sort of player you want to build anything around. Like a Gasol or a Shareef or even a Rasheed Wallace. Maybe you could argue Brand falls into that category. I don't know. I'm not sure if you saw my post five threads ago about 2010, but Joe Johnson is in that class too - and this year Okur and Gordon are some interesting shooters on the market. If we were to trade Brand, a shooting big man might be a good idea for us, given that we're pretty much stuck with wings who will never be, or at least aren't yet, stellar from the perimeter.
Johnson would be ideal, obviously. I'm not a fan of Gordon, Okur will be 30 this summer, how big of a deal do you think it would take to get him?
"The fact that Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller and Elton Brand are all doomed to be nothing more than second bananas, and the team doesn't have a true go-to-guy"
Bingo.
Im not saying get rid of brand for nothing....getting him for Marion (who is a very good player) and the fact his contract is expiring could be a decent move.
My take on Brand is that hes not a dominant player and when he did put up big stats it was on a bad team...he didnt necessarily jack up a lot of shots BUT the teams he was on were horrible. I mean who cares if you average 23 and 12 on a 25 win team ? Do you really think teams go crazy to guard someone in garbage time ? I am not basing my Brand opinion on the last 2 games...its all the games i have seen him in over the season. I dont see the explosion from him and he looks kind of old and slow to me. He just doesnt have that "bounce" So hes either still hurt or this is what he is at this point...
"doomed to be nothing more than second bananas"
Seems Ray Allen (and possibly paul pierce) are second bananas
Socttie Pippen was a second banana
Manu Ginobli is a second banana
Second bananas are key pieces to winning titles - and Andre Iguodala isn't 'doomed' to be anything yet - he's still young (isn't he the same age as the media wunderkind Brandon Roy?)...
Predicting the future has a nasty habit of being completely and totally inaccurate - i mean if it's true - it doesn't all matter since the worlds ending in 3 years
The history of basketball isn't really full of second scorers who turned into centerpieces of teams. Even in college, Iguodala was a facilitator.
That's right - that's all he's ever been - and for some reason people expect him to suddenly change his game - which is why fans need to stop complaining when he's not - he is never going to be - it's one of my biggest pet peaves.
"..and for some reason people expect him to suddenly change his game - which is why fans need to stop complaining when he's not.."
So if you subscribe to this logic concerning Iguodala, then why constantly complain about Dalembert, Reggie etc. These guys are what they are and are not going to suddenly change their game either, but you find it a pet peeve when other fans complain about Iguodala and say THEY should stop complaining?
Why not the same reasoning when you are the one doing the complaining albeit about other players??
Well, the best basketball Brand has played in his career came in his one trip to the playoffs. That's not a big enough sample size, but it's certainly a good indicator that he isn't just a garbage time stat compiler.
I'm also interested in what guy is going to be available with that cap space who is more of a number one than Brand.
THAT'S HOW NEGADELPHIA ACTS.WE'RE QUICK TO JUST TRADE A BRAND.
"I like the logic here, and I'd agree wholeheartedly except for one thing. When you pair Iguodala and Green on the wings, you're actually getting worse three-point shooting. Green is at 33%, Thad is at 35% right now, and I think they'll keep moving in opposite directions. I agree that they need Thad to keep developing as a three-point threat, but I don't think playing the three-point shooting of Thad and Iggy on the wings allows teams to clog the lanes any more than Green and Iggy on the wings. I think it was just a case of a slow start for Iggy. Or at least that's my hope at this point."
I'm certainly no willie green fan, and for the most part I agree, the problem with Thad though is his great inconsistency.
Then again, Willie was equally as bad in December.
The one thing I will give Willie Green is he's a decent midrange jumpshooter (40% from 17' and the 3 pt line, vs 35.5% for Young).
That being said, I agree that Young/Iguodala is our best wing pair. I think the early season struggles were more to do with early season struggles than with Iguodala playing SG. I do think the combination of Miller/Iguodala/Young isn't a perfect match (at least not yet), but I do think it's an improvement over our alternatives.
Absolutely. I did a post about the team's +/- when Iggy and Thad are on the floor together last week, the numbers are pretty shocking.