The Albatross. Now that Elton Brand is back on the floor, I feel we're running out of time to state our case against Willie Green staying in the starting lineup when EB is ready to go 30 minutes per. This post will be short on words, heavy on stats. After the jump you'll find what I believe is an extremely compelling argument for burying Green on the end of the bench and running with a starting lineup of Sam, EB, Thad, Iggy and Miller. First, the facts. When EB is ready to go 30 minutes, he'll be back in the starting lineup. At that point, Coach DiLeo will have three options for his starting lineup:
 Those numbers normalize to:
Now, here are two supporting the benching of Willie Green (stats compiled from Basketball-Reference.com). First a statistical look at the starting shooting guard for each team (I chose the player who started the most games at SG, except for Jason Terry in Dallas. He's their sixth man, but plays a vast majority of the two-guard minutes).  All of the stats above are normalized to 36 minutes. The final three columns are eFG, points per shot, and wins produced per 48 minutes. I have one comment on the chart above. Willie Green should thank God every night that DeShawn Stevenson is in this league. If not for Stevenson, Garbage Time would easily be the worst starting shooting guard in the league. I'm not sure Stevenson should be starting at the collegiate level with the way he's playing, let alone in the NBA. Here's an easier-to-swallow look at how Willie ranks among starting SGs.  So let's simplify this choice. You can either bench an average, to slightly-above average center, a small forward who, when playing with Iggy is a dominant force, or you can bench the second-worst starting shooting guard in the league. I hope the choice is as clear to the powers that be as it is to me. 20 Comments | Leave a commentLeave a commentLatest Posts• Speights Enters Doghouse • A Word For Our Sponsor • Back Under • A Road Test • The Albatross. • The Giant. • Can't Live With Him... • The Ugly Ones Still Count • Exclusive Stefanski and DiLeo Video • 41 Down, 41 To Go • Andre Iguodala, An All Star? • First Half Review: The TeamSearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM PhillyArena Heard In The Cheap Seats | ||||||||||||||||
Brian,
I do agree with benching Green and moving Iggy to SG. Wages of Wins did an in-depth article on him 2 years ago as he was the worst 'starter' in the league and 3rd worst player overall (who got meaningful minutes). Here is the article:
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/10/07/the-left-tail-of-the-talent-distribution-in-the-nba/
Brian,
BTW, 82games backs up your stats on Iggy and Thad. They are listed as the most productive playing pair on the Sixers:
http://www.82games.com/0809/ppairs0809.htm
Who was the worst? WG and Reg the Fierce.
Take a look at that worst list, SAC's best two-man combo is +12 on the season! That's just putrid. They need a garbage time guy like Willie who knows how to pad stats when minutes don't mean anything.
Im not a willie green guy...but didnt we already determine Iguodola is a MUCH better SF than SG ?
I don't think there's really statistical evidence as to that yet. His season turned around in December, before being moved back to the three. There were too many factors involved to say playing the two was definitely the problem. Since Dec. 10th he really hasn't spent much time at all playing the two, but that lineup has been the most effective for the team (Sam, EB, Thad, Iggy, Miller).
I am not a WG fan, even far from it. But, have you considered the results when Thad is on the 2nd team w/ Lou and without Thad?
I think we all would agree the best would be Willie on some other teams bench! But, I remember Tony D saying he likes the energy Lou brings to the 2nd team, do you think that is his reason also w/ Thad?
The thing I like about DiLeo is that he almost never runs w/ a complete second unit. Meaning, Iggy or Miller is almost always on the floor w/ those guys. So you have Lou and Speights to bring energy off the bench, Ivey to bring defense, then a mixing and matching of the bigs.
I don't think you need Thad to bring energy off the bench, I think you need him to bring it throughout the game. Let Lou and Speights be your energy guys.
Brian, you are right about DiLeo rarely going exclusively to the 2nd unit. Cheeks did early on in the season and got burned badly.
I think Thad is better as a starter then off the bench. He takes advantage of opportunities when the defense is paying attention to other players, but is not yet suited to lead an offense- which is case more when he runs with the 2nd unit.
IMO Thad should start either at PF or SF. Brand should replace Green in the line-up.
Green does bring some positives out there. He is not worthy of starting, or probably more than 10 min/game, but he can play within the offense and defend and run.
He does not bring much, but he's also not hugely overpaid (just too long of a deal.)
What do you think a fair salary would be for Willie? The MLE (1.2M) or more in the Bi-annual (2.4M) range? He's not quite worth the 3M he's getting...
Honestly, he produces at a minimum contract level. His standard stats don't look terrible because he plays too many minutes, but his efficiency numbers and pretty much any advanced statistical look at his play reveal him to be just a horrible drain on the team as a whole.
I agree, just trying to play the other side. I think that Tony D leaving a starter in at all times is great and I noticed that from the beginning. Thought it was a coincident unil it has been consistent. Wonder why Mo never thought of that??
I thought I wrote something about rotations back in November or December that suggested something like this. I'll dig through the archives later on.
all I have to say is that we HAVE TO TRY AGAIN with Iguodala at SG, with the new system and the new coach, and keep the experiment going for another 8-10 games at least
maybe it would be better to have Brand at 100% before doing this, this would mean we could perhaps wait for another 3-4 games with Elton off the bench, progressively increasing his minutes.
I am all for going with your 1. lineup, Brian, while the lineup for the last 5-8 minutes of close games should be like Miller-Williams-Iggy-Thad-Brand, with occasional insertions of Speights (at PF or C)
By next year I hope to see Speights/Brand/Thad/Iguodala/PG.
That would be a balance offense on both ends of the court. Speights is not ready yet (mentally and to some degree strength), but I hope that is there lineup next season.
What about the angle of WG staying in the starting lineup at the behest of Stefanski. He may be pulling every last straw to somehow sucker some other GM into taking Willie in a deal, and even though chances are slim that anyone would want him with that length of contract, they sure as heck aren't going to want him if he is playing a minimal role off the bench. Just a thought.
There is always hope I suppose.
Personally, I think the more you play Willie, the more he's exposed. If you want to build is value, bury him on the end of the bench for a couple of weeks and hope opposing GM's forget how bad he is.
"* Per 48 minutes when Iggy and Thad are on the floor together, the Sixers outscore their opponents by 6.31 points."
"* Per 48 minutes when Iggy and Thad are not on the floor together, their opponents outscore them by 17.56 points."
Those numbers are staggering.
The one thing that seems to be missing from the comments is will Iggy's level of performance return to sub-par when he goes back to being a 2? If yes, has he got a mental block about being a 2? Also, while Brand is saying all the right things right now, I notice he keeps mentioning that he's good with change as long as they're winning. I don't doubt for a second that he's not 100% happy to see Iggy triving since his (Brand's) injury.
I'd rather see Lou on the floor instead of Green. Lou will never be a top notch PG.
Great analysis, and I can conclude only one thing: the man has pictures.