It's time to turn the page from last night's horrific loss to the remaining six games. After the jump, we'll look at the schedule and try to predict where this team will wind up.
Let's talk about the extremes first, then dive into the schedule. Best-case scenario, the Sixers finish 46-36. This would assure the Sixers of finishing no worse than #5, and if the Hawks finished their season 3-2, the Sixers could finish fourth depending on the tiebreaker. Worst-case scenario is a repeat of last season's 40-42 record. If Chicago and Detroit finish 4-1, the Sixers would drop to 8th. The Sixers hold the tiebreaker over both the Bulls and the Pistons, so if both teams lose two games, Philly can finish no lower than 6th. Here's a closer look at the math.
UPDATE: Tiebreakers - Sixers hold tiebreaker against the Pistons, Bulls and Hawks. It's up in the air with Miami. The second tiebreaker, after head to head record is conference record, here's where the teams currently stand:
Philly - 24-22
Miami - 26-22
The next tiebreaker is record vs. playoff teams in your conference:
Philly - 8-13 (4 remaining)
Miami - 11-12 (3 remaining)
If the Sixers finish 6-0 (46-36)
- They finish fourth if Atlanta finishes no better than 3-2
- They finish fifth if Miami loses one game or Sixers take third tiebreaker (record vs. playoff teams in East)
- They cannot finish lower than 6th
If the Sixers finish 5-1 (45-37)
- They finish fourth if Atlanta finishes no better than 2-3
- They finish fifth if Miami finishes no better than 4-1 AND that Miami loss comes against an Eastern Conference team AND the Sixers take third tiebreaker (record vs. playoff teams in East).
- They cannot finish lower than sixth
If the Sixers finish 4-2 (44-38)
- They finish fourth if Atlanta finishes no better than 1-4
- They finish fifth if Miami finishes no better than 3-2 and Miami loses both games to Eastern Conference teams AND the Sixers take third tiebreaker (record vs. playoff teams in East).
- They cannot finish lower than sixth
If the Sixers finish 3-3 (43-39)
- They finish fourth if Atlanta finishes 0-5
- They finish fifth if Miami finishes no better than 2-3 AND Miami loses three games to Eastern Conference teams AND the Sixers take third tiebreaker (record vs. playoff teams in East)
- They cannot finish lower than sixth
If the Sixers finish 2-4 (42-40)
- They cannot finish 4th.
- They finish fifth if Miami finishes no better than 1-4 AND Miami losses four games to Eastern Conference teams AND the Sixers take third tiebreaker (record vs. playoff teams in East)
- They cannot finish lower than sixth
If the Sixers finish 1-5 (41-41)
- They cannot finish fourth
- They cannot finish fifth
- They finish sixth if both Chicago and Detroit lose 1 game
- They finish seventh if Chicago or Detroit finishes 5-0
- They cannot finish eighth (Chicago plays Detroit, so both teams cannot finish 5-0)
If the Sixers finish 0-6 (40-42)
- They cannot finish fourth
- They cannot finish fifth
- They finish sixth if neither Detroit nor Chicago finishes 4-1 or better
- They finish seventh if either Detroit or Chicago finishes 4-1 or better
- They finish eighth if both Detroit and Chicago finish 4-1 or better
So there you have it. In a nutshell, if the Sixers win 3 more games, they have a shot at the #4 seed. They would have to lose all of their remaining games and run into some serious bad luck to finish 8th. A 6th-place finish is still most likely.
Now, the remaining schedule:
- 04/07/09 @ Charlotte - Charlotte leads the season series 2-1. Charlotte is barely clinging to playoff life, and they've lost three straight.
- 04/09/09 @ Chicago - Sixers lead the season series 2-1.
- 4/10/09 vs. Cleveland - Cleveland leads the season series 2-0. Cleveland needs 2 wins to clinch home court advantage in the East, but home court advantage throughout will probably not be decided (they hold a 1-game edge on the Lakers).
- 4/12/09 @ Toronto - Sixers lead season series 2-1. Toronto was eliminated from the playoffs last night.
- 4/14/09 vs. Boston - Boston leads the season series 3-0. They are in a dog fight with Orlando for the #2 seed in the East. It's doubtful that it'll be decided by the 14th.
- 4/15/09 @ Cleveland - Cleveland leads the season series 2-0. See above.
Records say the Sixers should finish 3-3, with three wins on the road, 2 losses at home. That just doesn't seem likely to me. Tomorrow night's game is not going to be easy. Chicago has plenty to play for and Toronto had been playing better of late, until they lost to the Knicks last night. Realistically, if the Sixers are going to finish 3-3, I think they probably need to take one of those three games against the Celtics and the Cavs. If they're going to finish 4-2, they're going to probably have to hold serve against the three teams below them and take one from Boston or Cleveland.
If this team has proven anything to us, it's that they can never be counted on for anything, good or bad. They could very well go 3-3 with the three wins coming against the Celts and the Cavs. They could finish 6-0, or they could finish 0-6. I'm going to stick with a 3-3 finish, though. I think it's realistic. And I also think we're looking at the #6 seed and probably a first-round matchup with the Magic.
Maybe I misread, but it looked like given some of the situations you posted, you made it seem like the tiebreaker w/ Atlanta is up in the air. the tiebreaker in atlanta is not up in the air. we have won it already.
Good point- but what if there is a 3 way tie for 4th :)
You're right. I thought they were 2-2 for some reason. I'm going to run the tiebreaker between the sixers and miami and update the post up top.
Thanks for the break down.
You'd think that after watching this team closely all these games I'd have a sense of how they will close out- but I honestly have no idea. I could see them winning anywhere between 1 and 5 games. The team is so streaky and unpredictable its hard to get a read on them.
As an aside, was just crunching some cap numbers, and it is really scary. Assuming Miller walks, the min guys walk and the team only signs its #1 pick this summer and next... That puts them at 65M. The tax could be as low as 67M summer 2010.
This team does not want to go over the tax (they have said as much publicly.) But if they resign Miller or use the MLE they will be forced to either dump salary or pay the tax in 2010. This could end up being the hidden cost of the 'Philly Max.'
They did not think that the tax threshold would actually go down. Now they have a unbalanced team (esp after Miller walks) and no space under the tax. Ed has some tough wok ahead if he want to turn this group into a contender.
The Sixers currently have $55,005,349 committed for the 2010/2011 season. Two more low-first-round picks adds about $3 mil to that. Assuming the cap that summer is $67 mil, as you predict, the Sixers would have $9 mil to work with. Obviously that's not a lot when you're still looking to fill 3 roster spots, but it's not peanuts, and plenty of teams are in worse shape.
The Celtics will have $20 mil to work with but 9 roster spots to fill. Denver will have $6 mil to spend on their entire bench, and two of their starters will be 33 or older. Golden State will have the same amount of cap room as us, but will have over $40 mil committed to shooting guards. The Lakers and New Orleans will each have 5 roster spots to fill and already be over the cap. Milwaukee will have $45 mil committed to just Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd, and Richard Jefferson. The San Antonio Spurs will start with half of their cap space, but only two players (including 34-year old Tim Duncan) on the roster.
The point is, every team is going to struggle to make ends meet over the next few season in light of what has been happening with the economy. Our problems are no worse than theirs. What it comes down to is, do we trust the people in charge of our team to make decisions in the best interest of the team and the fans? Personally, I trust Ed Stefanski.
You need to recheck your numbers. Where are you getting them from? I am getting basically the same numbers as tk. I get right around 62-62.5 before the picks. After the picks, somewhere right under 65 I would guess.
Are you forgetting about Thad, Speights, and Smith?
Yeah, I'm getting the same numbers, 62.5M.
If they're saying they absolutely will not, at any point, go over the luxury tax, then they can't do anything but make their picks over the next two seasons. Plain and simple.
If they're talking about staying under for next season only, then reassessing, they can afford to bring Miller back (dependent on how much he wants) and to spend some portion of the MLE, depending on how much miller signs for.
Noah's right, though. The Sixers aren't the only team in this situation. In fact, they're in better shape than most of the contending teams.
Anyway, it's not something we need to worry about right now. Let's concentrate on these 6 games.
2-3 - that's my prediction
And the other game is a rained out?
Typo - sorry 2-4 if they're lucky
This team is impossible to predict. Brian, I love your work above but what if they go 3-2-1. They tie Chicago Thursday night?
Anyway, I think they will go 3-3. They will beat either Cleveland or Boston at home.
I would love to see them win 45 this year, I predicted that in December on another blog and I was laughed at!
Brian, are you atleast going to put out some feelers on my idea up there in NYC???
I made that mistake at realgm (forgetting that hoopshype does not count Speights/Thad and Smith against the cap.)
But Noah is right, the Sixers will not be the only team trying to work against a bad financial situation- but there are a ton of teams that have blown up there rosters to clear money for 2010. But those teams will be without talet unless they hit a homerun in FA.
I guess I share your optimism with Ed in charge,but on the other hand will not be shocked if they make some painful moves (like selling a first in 2010) to clear some salary.
Last year they gave away Carney and a #1 to clear capspace to get Brand. A similar move will hurt if it is only done to stay under the tax.
Not to be a broken record,but I wish the team could have unloaded Evans, Green or Sam-even if that had meant sacrificing Miller and any shot at a playoff run.
That said,I really hope they can get #5 and win a round...and then shock the world!
Was thinking a bit more optimistically about the cap/tax issue... Since the super-stud trio of Sam/Evans/Green come off the books in 2011, I would hope the team is willing to pay the tax in 2010 knowing they will be in the clear the following season. It might depend on how close they are to contending and how much they fill the arena next year.