The Quest For Eight Elton or not to Elton, that is the question. Not for the long term, obviously, I'm just talking about today. Personally, I could go either way. If you play him, he then has a full four days to recover. Then again, if you hold him back, he's got another four days of rehab and recovery before he gets back out there. I think I'd lean toward the latter. Much more on EB, "the streak," and today's match-up with Dallas after the jump. You're going to have to bear with me through this post. If today's game was at 7pm instead of 1 I would've written 3 posts to get all of these thoughts out there (you have a lot of time to think about basketball when you spend 5 hours driving listening to kids' music over 2 days). I just want to get all of these thoughts down before the tip. Today's Match-up 
The Sixers and the Mavs should be very familiar to each other when they tip it off this afternoon. I believe the game they played in Dallas a couple of weeks ago was right in the middle of the turnaround, when the Sixers were putting together their style of play, but hadn't quite established the trust in each other, and the system, to maximize their talents. On that night, the Mavs used their go-to guy and plays to pull away from the Sixers in the fourth, today's game is going to be about figuring out a way to minimize the damage on Dirk's pick-and-pops and forcing the Mavs to get up and down the floor for 48 minutes. Those are my two keys, and they should be blatantly obvious to everyone at this point. Truth be told, though, the second is probably the biggest key to the game. The goal of the Sixers should be to run the Mavs old and/or slow players into submission. Force them to limit the minutes of Dirk, Kidd and Dampier. The Mavs have played horribly on the road recently (0-4, including losses @ Memphis and Sacramento). They've given up an average of 108 points/game over that stretch. You can run on this team, and that needs to be the Sixers top priority throughout the game. As a team, the Mavs are a below-average three-point shooting team. Nowitzki, Terry, Howard and Kidd are all shooting above average, but their percentages have really dropped off since the last time these teams met. The rest of the team is below average, although they still like to shoot threes. We'll get to the larger question for the Sixers a little later in this post. The Streak   I'd like to talk a little about this streak, because I'm not sure most people fully grasp exactly how good the Sixers have been over the past 8 games (I'm conservatively going to count the San Antonio loss as part of the streak of great play). Above, you'll see two charts. The standard stats in the top, and then the four factors stats below. Let's start with the second chart first. The stark difference between the past 8 games and previous 32 is the eFG. The Sixers have out-shot their opponents in 6 of the 8 games, that only happened in 8 of the previous 32. More importantly, their cumulative eFG for the period has been an ungodly .556. Phoenix currently leads the league in eFG on the season at .543. When you look at the cumulative stats, the Sixers are winning all five "battles" over the stretch. Just a shocking turn of events. When we look at the more traditional stats, the three-point shooting stands out (46.8%) as being both amazing and completely unsustainable, but even a regression to their paltry season average wouldn't account for the 10.7 point differential. This team has been getting it done on both ends of the floor at an amazing rate. While I don't expect them to average 104.8 ppg the rest of the way, I don't think it's out of the question to expect 94.1 ppg allowed. If they can sustain that number, they're going to win many, many more than they lose. One thing I failed to mention in my recap of the Knicks' game is the rebounding they got out of Thad and Speights, Thad especially. An interesting tidbit to take away from Thad's game logs. His minutes go up when he's hitting the glass. Over the past 8 games, Thad has played 35 minutes or more 5 times. In each of those games he had more than 3 offensive rebounds. In the three games in which he saw less than 35 minutes of action he had 0, 0 and 2. More evidence that you earn your minutes under Coach DiLeo, and you earn them within that game, not based on past performance. (Someone should really show stats like this to the players.) One more rambling point, then I'm going to rest up and get ready for the game. The EB Question As I said before the jump, if it were up to me, I'd opt to hold EB back until Saturday's game. The main reason is to get him another 4 days of rest/recovery/rehab for the shoulder, but there are few other issues we need to touch on. The first being the goals, and priority of those goals, for Elton's return. Here's my list:
You absolutely can't make decisions based on what the press might write, but in this case, I think holding him back could serve all three goals. As far as conditioning is concerned, how much of a benefit is 20 minutes of playing time followed by 4 off days going to provide? Let him keep working out off the court, then bring him back on Saturday when the team has 5 games in 8 days. He'll have time to rest in between games (no back-to-backs until the 30th and 31st, in fact, their schedule is extremely favorable for the next month. Only two back-to-backs, the one mentioned above and then Feb. 16th and 17th). They could also use the four off days this week to get Brand onto the court in 5 on 5 scrimmages to integrate him into the team's new style. Heck, there may even be an argument to be made for holding him back until the team lost again. I mean, as I've said before, dislocated shoulders are very tough injuries to come back from, especially for a basketball player. Think of the current winning streak as buying time for EB. As long as the team's winning, what's the rush? As a hopelessly optimistic Sixers' fan, I want to see EB back on the court as soon as possible because I believe he's smart, dedicated and versatile enough to integrate with the current version of the team seamlessly. As a realistic Sixers' fan, I want him to come back to a situation where the deck isn't stacked against him, at least in the public's eye. What do you guys think? Get him out there as soon as possible, or play it safe (and smart?) Thoughts in the comments now, in-game discussion in the comments during the game. See you there. 103 Comments | Leave a commentLeave a commentLatest Posts• First Half Review: The Team • Mo Goes Back To Work? • First Half Review: The Bigs • Mike Miller Trade Rumor • Hollinger Loves The Sixers! • EB Back On Saturday • First Half Review: The Swings • Wednesday Morning Links • Someone Call New Orleans • First Half Review: The Guards • The Streak Ends, Or Does It? • The Quest For EightSearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM PhillyArena Heard In The Cheap Seats | ||||||||||||||||
Brian I got ripped for suggesting sitting Elton till a loss on another blog but if you look at how E.S.timed Deleo!s entrance with 3 easy opponents it to me says he is wary of putting his coach or team in a bad situation. Waiting till next weekend wouldn!t be a bad idea, in my opinion, bring him back in a very winnable game [Knicks] and go from there.
I'm not going to complain if he's out there today, I mean I want to see the guy come back, but something about holding him back until Saturday just makes a lot of sense.
Has anyone else had their NBA league pass down all weekend? I am at work today so would miss the game anyway - but I'm starting to get aggravated
My reception was really crappy on Friday night, but was available. Haven't checked it since. Better be up this afternoon.
According to Dallas News web site - Howard is not on the court warming 2 hours before the game - Brand is
http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1251
Does anyone else think Josh Howard for Marion makes more sense for the Heat than J.O. for Marion? I mean, they're making a playoff push this season and they really don't have any money committed beyond 2010. They don't need J.O.'s expiring deal to sign a big name or two.
If O'Neal could stay healthy, and produce to his ability from a couple of years ago he'd probably help the team more, but what are the odds of that? On the court, I think Howard would be more of help, of course you have to deal w/ the off court distractions as well, though.
I don't believe Josh Howard would be as easy to get as Jermaine O'Neal :)
They'd give J.O. away at this point, that's true. Which kinda makes you wonder why Miami would use it's best trade chip to get him.
Well Pat the hair rebuked this report vehemently - so for me it's a matter of maybe the media pushing something that has less of a chance of happening than they say
Yahoo boxscore does not list brand as one of the active 12 today
They're frequently wrong. We'll know either way in 20 minutes.
There will be no Elton Brand today. Jasner
has the scoop. Looks like they are going with Brian's option.
Thanks for the news Max. I'm behind this decision.
On another note, I just read that J.O. is out for the season w/ a ruptured Achilles, so I kinda doubt Toronto will be landing Marion for him :)
Where'd you read that?
Someplace completely unreliable. Said Gus Johnson just made the announcement, but I'm not sure where Gus Johnson would be on TV right now. Looking for confirmation.
I would think this news, if true, puts us as a lock for 2nd place in the division. Even though the Raptors have played lousy, I put them as our competition for that spot.
Still looking, haven't found any confirmation.
Google News has nothing and the most recent Jermaine O'neal update was 10 minutes ago :)
It's bogus. Taken down already.
Anyone got any online audio for this game? Being at work sucks
Sammy with a pretty catch and conversion off a Thad feed.
Iggy threeeeeee!
Day game for the Sixers? Wow. Wish I wasn't at work haha.
7-4 after 6:00. This has just been plain ugly.
This game as ugly live as it looks online?
worse.
Sammy with an assist off a dribble drive? Holy crap.
DiLeo told them to run more in the timeout, and it's working. 13-4 Sixers, timeout Dallas.
Andre Miller is so good at breaking dry spells.
The Mavs came right back after their timeout, although I like the way the Sixers played the Terry/Nowitzki two-man game, no double, Iggy switched onto Dirk, didn't leave Terry for the three.
22-16 after the first.
Be thankful you didn't have to see Sammy leading the break, dribbling behind his back, then throwing an alley-oop to Lou Will that landed in the fifth row of the stands. I shit you not.
it looks like Andre Miller might be on track for a triple double today.
6 pts 5 reb 4 ast after one?
He's taking the Kidd challenge.
If it were 2k9, I'd start trying to rack up steals. Go for the quad.
3 fouls on the mavs early in the 2nd - let's work on that (but stay away from reggie offensively please)
or turnovers. prob easier to get 10 to's then steals (in 2k9 that is)
Ivey is playing some sick D on the perimeter, man. Just pestering Barea, fighting over screens. 29-20 Sixers, 9:00 to go in the second.
Lou putting on a show.
Who's guarding him? If it is Barea, their coach must be clueless.
It was Barea. The Sixers got a little three happy there for a minute, but they've settled. 8-point game w/ dallas going to the line after the break.
Back up ten with this lineup:
Miller
Ivey
Iggy
Thad
Sammy
I like it.
Sixers 5/10 from three, Dallas 1/5. Unreal.
Call him Royal Jelly - cause he's on a roll
The better Royal plays... the more likley a healthy scratch for Willie becomes.
I may change the name of this blog when we see like 5 straight DNPCDs next to Willie's name.
iVEY IS BANGING THEM 3'S
IGGY NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN,TOO MUCH FANCY DRIBBLING AT TIMES
Just following on ESPN Game cast - ugly end of the quarter
Bad end to the half. The Mavs cut a 12-point lead down to 4 in the final 2 minutes.
46-42 at the half.
Dirk is 1-10 from the floor in the half. For those of you watching- who has been the reason? Dirk or the guy guarding him (Thad?)
The real Iguodala returns.
Nice to see the quiet haters come out of the wood work after one half.
He isn't quiet about it :)
heh. still have a half to go.
So Dirk and Iguodala, the 2 best players on the court, have both been non factors. Good to see the Sixers are up anyway.
Thad and Evans have been right in his jock. A couple times he settled for a contested jumper, a couple other times he drove to the hole and Sammy blocked or altered his shot. They're pressuring him, he hasn't had any wide-open looks, but you'd still expect him to hit at better than a 10% clip. I'd say it's a lot of the defense and a little of just an off shooting day, so far. Let's hope it keeps up.
Thad is stuffing the stat sheet, 6 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 1 steal in the first half.
SOmeone kill willie green please - right now in this game he's useless
in this game? In what games isn't he? When they play Golden State or New York?
stuffing the stat sheet, getting the minutes - a +10 in the first half.
Stop giving Green the ball!!!!
4 fucking FGA in about 30 seconds, 3 bricks.
Willie has managed to not fill any other stat. Wouldn't he have stumbled into a rebounds, steal, or assist?
He just picked up another foul, so he's got that going for him.
Wow, I didn't even realize Dampier was playing. That's the first time I've heard his name. Good foul by Willie.
There we go. Transition three for Iggy to put them back up by 8. Nice.
Man, the Mavs are making a living at the line 11/14. Sixers only have 5 attempts. That stat needs correcting.
A team that plays like the sixers should draw more fouls than that.
Hey Look willie just got an assist
Actually his 2nd. He may combust soon if he doesn't get a few more FGA in.
Miller really needs to stick with Kidd. That's three threes this quarter for him.
Timeout with 4:51 to go in the third, 60-59 Mavs.
I say you go to Miller when you come out of the timeout. He needs to get a good shot, set someone up for a dunk, or draw a foul to put them back up quickly.
Ugh, they went to Sammy in the post.
Shit. 12-0 run, Mavs up 5 now. Nothing going to the hoop, need to be more aggressive in the half court.
Horrible, horrible third quarter. Down 74-63 heading into the fourth.
The wheels just came off in every facet of the game. Outscored 32-17 in the quarter.
Out of curiosity - how many time outs did dileo take in that quarter?
2, I believe.
Ivey in, gets to the line, then ties Kidd up for a jump ball. I don't want to see Willie again in this game.
I don't want to see willie again - retroactively to when he was a free agent...screw einsteinian physics
oh my lord.
Iggy boots a sure dunk which would've cut the lead to 5. that may be the game.
Kidd comes back and hits a three. that's it. fuck me.
I'm just looking for a strong fourth - this is a good team - better than the sixers (healthy too) - a good 'heat check' and 'this is how far the team has to go' game - win or lose - just want a strong fourth - a 'win' in the fourth at least.
20-21 is pretty much the pace i expected this season sadly
Can't hit a damn free throw
crap against the knicks too - offsets the 80%+ games :) they are who we thought they were (from the free throw line)
Down 9, 6:06 to go, Miller comes back in. Any chance?
Lou blows a dunk that somehow turns into a layup on the other end. Down by 11 again.
That Iggy play and this Williams play, that's a 9-point swing right there. Two friggin dunks.
That old chestnut about 'sometimes it's just not your day' comes to mind
But this free throw disparity is ridiculous - is it legitimate or have the refs called an unbalanced game? i hope it's not 'settling too much for the jumper/three' as opposed to playing to their strenghts? I was worried about that
I haven't noticed too many bad calls.
Thad was doing a much better job on Dirk than Reggie is.
They've gotten even on FTA now, 19 to 20. They just can't hit them.
Game. Set. Match.
Wait a minute...wait a minute...Down 5, with the ball, 57 seconds to go. COME ON!!!!!
LOOUOOOUUUUUUUU for 3. 93-91, 30 second
IGGGGGYYYY FOR THE TIEEE!!!! come on, 8.5 seconds, don't let them put the dagger in. Solid D here, go to OT. PLEASE NO LAST SECOND WINNER FOR THE MAVS.
Well i said all i wanted was a strong 4th
now i want a win :)
Reggie gives the foul. 4.3 seconds to go, Mavs take their final timeout.
I was doing work figured I'd check back and see... saw 93-93 was like WHAAAAAAT???
F me right in A hole.
Dirk for the winner over Evans. 95-93, Dallas.
I hate Dirk
At least it wasn't Kidd.
So why wasn't Thad on him there?
That's my question. Thad really shut him down for three quarters. Reggie did a lot of good things in the fourth, but his defense on Dirk was not one of them. You know the ball is going to him, Thad should've gotten the assignment.
On the bright side, Iggy hit two HUGE shots down the stretch, including the one that tied the game up.
Fuck, this one stings.
I'm sorry, Reggie was great in that fourth quarter grabbing boards and pressuring the ball, but he could not guard Dirk. He shouldn't have been on him for that last play.
Yeah, DiLeo may have lost us the game. He was asked about it in the press conference and he said he didn't want to put someone on him who hadn't been guarding him in the last 5 minutes.
Win or lose - that was a strong showing in the 4th - if this team would hit their damn free throws with any consistency this is probably a win - but it was nice to see them not concede in the 4th after that horrid 3rd and keep fighting...made a strong game of it at the end...good thing to build on
True I hate him two
Two sucker punches two days in a row for Philadlephia sports fans - at least they kept Hamels and Madson
Willie needs to have his minute cut pretty badly. He really is just hurting this team a lot when he is on the court.
Just to show how misleading +/- can be, Willie led the team w/ +7 in this one.