A Closer Look At Gm. 1 Stats This afternoon I decided to take a closer look at the stats from yesterday's game. I wanted to see if there was a numeric way to quantify the effectiveness of the Sixers' game plan, on both sides of the ball. After the jump, we'll dive into the results.I wanted to take a look at a few specific advanced stats, pace (possessions), offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). With the naked eye, I guessed the game was played more at the Sixers' pace (90 possessions per game, Orlando actually plays faster at 92.7 possessions per game). I used the following formula to come up with the total possessions, from Dean Oliver's Basketball on paper: The answer was pretty much as I expected in this area. The Sixers used 91 possessions, the Magic 89. Next it was time to test if the Sixers' strategy of single covering Dwight Howard had any effect on Orlando's scoring. The answer is not really. For the season, Orlando averaged 109 points per 100 possessions, in game one they averaged 108.9. The Sixers allowed an average of 106.6 points per 100 possessions on the season, so their defense didn't perform to it's rating either. On the other side of the ball, the difference was night and day. The Sixers scored 111.1 per 100 possessions, 4.4 points better than their season average. For the season, Orlando only allowed 100.5 points per 100 possessions. It was clearly this side of the ball that won the Sixers the game, statistically. When I was done looking at the broad picture, I wanted to take a closer look at the box score. One thing jumped out at me right away, Dwight Howard. Check out these usage splits from the game (possessions here are fga + tov + trips to the line for 2 shots):
Leading the way for the Sixers was obviously Donyell Marshall, who scored 11 points with his 6 possessions. Lou was also excellent, 18 points in 13 possessions. Iguodala used a shocking 29 possessions to get his 20 points. My takeaway from this exercise? Well, the Sixers did an excellent job of offensive execution, especially against this team. I don't know what to make of their defensive stats. I thoroughly expected some kind of dent in Orlando's rating, but it just wasnt there. Maybe the thing the stats can't quantify is the psychological damage done by a made three, especially against the Sixers. For some reason, when Dwight Howard throws down a monster dunk, you shrug and get over it. When Rashard Lewis drains a three, your stomach drops. It's like you're constantly climbing uphill. What are your thoughts on the first game? Was the difference really offensive execution for the Sixers? Did you think they played a good defensive game? Do you think it's less damaging to allow the Magic to score at relatively the same pace if they're hitting less threes, simply from a psychological standpoint? I'm not sure where I stand on that last one, interested to hear your thoughts. Latest Posts• Who's In Whose Head? • A Couple Favorites • Best Of Three • Game Four, Sixers vs. Magic • Game Four, Who's Going? • Round 1 Advanced Stats • Game Three Thoughts • Thad's Turn To Be The Hero • Game Three: Sixers vs. Orlando • Jasner Jumps The Gun • Game 3, Who's Going? • Morning After Thoughts & LinksSearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM PhillyArena Heard In The Cheap Seats | ||||||||||||||||
Brian, not sure if you've seen this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDzpiXeGc6s
Wow, that's the first time I've seen it in slow motion, he made about 10 moves and covered like 12 feet in a second to get that shot off, Hedo was still all over him, Iggy just out jumped him to get it off. Amazing shot.
No doubt a dunk is far less damaging than a 3. Beyond the demoralizing effect, when a team like the Magic (or the Jazz) are draining their 3s, it feels like a much tougher task on O to outscore them.
Indeed, the difference was our offense. Of course, it may well be the case that had we doubled Howard, they would've scored a lot more; I certainly wouldn't say that, because Orlando was offensively as good as they always were, the strategy didn't make a big difference in our favor.
On another note, imagine if we had signed Gordon instead of Brand. 42 points tonight, 14-24, 6-11 from three. (Of course, I suppose his man, Allen, scored quite a bit too, but on a team with our defense, he'd be less of a problem in that regard.) We'd be quite a solid team. Of course, we'd also be committing ourselves to playing Young at the four for the forseeable future. That said, with Duncan slowly fading into the downside of his career, Stoudemire looking like he'll never have a contender built around him, and... not many other notable fours who you have to worry about in the playoffs (maybe West and Aldridge one day but Thad can guard them), does that really matter right now?
Gordon's shooting would be nice. He is one of the best 3 point shooters to ever play this game and that would certainly help this team.
I would NEVER want to pay Gordon the money he would normally get though.
On a related note, how much will Gordon get paid this offseason? He reached 20 ppg.(pretty big indicator of pay normally) He is playing well in the playoffs.(another indicator I'm guessing) Seems like he normally would be likely to get a nice 6 year 80 million dollar contract at worst. However, there is no market for him right now and teams have a great excuse(the economy) to underpay their players, so I'm pretty interested to see how that unfolds.
Well, compare Maggette's numbers from 07-08 to Gordon's from 08-09.
I think Maggette's numbers were better and he got 5 years/$48M from the Warriors before the economy went down the tubes.
If Gordon has a couple more games like this in the playoffs, he's going to up his asking price, but I just don't know who's going to pay him.
Isn't it rumored that Detroit would be interested in him? Didn't they just re-up Rip? Maybe they make a trade or two to free up a spot for him.
Yeah, they did just re-up Rip.
Can you play a backcourt of Stuckey and Gordon?
I guess anything's possible if Iverson and Claxton was thought of to be played together. If they just gave Rip an extension, can he play the 3?
Honestly, I wouldn't expect the recipe the Sixers won with on Sunday to replicate all that many times in this series. Outshooting the magic from 3, not getting to the line, not getting transition baskets. It was great, but not something I would expect us to do very many times this series. I don't necessarily expect Dwight to play as well as he did (especially from the line), even if single covered, either.
Can the Sixers go ahead and sign Bruce Kreutzer and bring him on board as a staff member. DiLeo says he came in a couple of days before the playoffs and worked with some guys on their shots, specifically Lou. Boy, did it pay dividends with Lou in game 1. He was knocking down threes like he was a one dimensional spot-up shooter.