It's really a shame that this series is being relegated to obscurity by the powers that be in the mainstream media and the league itself. Honestly, when you look around there are two first-round series completely up for grabs at this point, the Sixers/Magic and Boston/Chicago. After the jump, I want to talk about the psychological edge and who could possibly hold it after four tough games.
Let's take a step back and look at quarter-by-quarter scoring trends over the first four games:
First quarter total points
- Philadelphia: 97
- Orlando: 91
Second quarter total points
- Philadelphia: 84
- Orlando: 90
First half total points
- Philadelphia: 181
- Orlando: 181
Third quarter total points
- Philadelphia: 81
- Orlando: 109
Fourth quarter total points
- Philadelphia: 102
- Orlando: 81
Second half total points
- Philadelphia: 183
- Orlando: 191
It's pretty amazing that the teams have played dead even in the first half, with the Sixers getting off to better starts, then coming back to the pack in the second. Still, the scoring is only 6 points off for each quarter. The second half is an entirely different story. The Magic are up 28 points in the third (7 points per game), while the Sixers hold a 21 points edge in the fourth (5.25/game). Here's where I'm having a problem getting a fix on the pulse of the series.
If you're a Magic player or coach, are you thinking "All we need to do is execute like we have in the third and we'll blow them out?" Or are you thinking, "We really need to push the lead to 20 in the third, because we can't do anything down the stretch?" Is the Orlando mindset, "We have the series right where it should be, now we'll take them at home?" Or is it, "This team just won't go away?" Does Orlando take solace in the fact that they have the series tied even though neither Hedo nor Rashard have really had a good game yet, or are they wondering if Andre Iguodala will continue to stifle whoever he guards?
On the flip side, if you're the Sixers do you have a sinking feeling that one of these dreadful third quarters is going to sink the ship, or do you feel like no matter what happens in the first 36 minutes, the fourth quarter is yours? Are you waiting for the other shoe to drop and the Magic to drain 15 threes in a blowout win, or do you believe in the varied defensive looks, the superior athleticism and the raw desire that's carried you to this point? Are you kicking yourself for not putting the Magic down, or do you have a renewed fire, fueled by the success you had in Orlando in games one and two?
If you can figure this series out, please share your thoughts with us in the comments. Common logic would tell you Orlando has the momentum heading home for game 5, but is that momentum fool's gold considering they blew a 10-point lead in the final 5 minutes of game four only to be bailed out by a last-second shot?
Gun to my head, I think the Sixers are in Orlando's head. They won 59 games in the regular season. They've were put to the test starting in game 1 and the Sixers haven't let up since. If Orlando was going to assert themselves, they would've done it by now. I'm not sure if they're capable or not, but I just don't see this Sixers team letting up at this point.
"Honestly, when you look around there are two first-round series even remotely in doubt at this point, the Sixers/Magic and Boston/Chicago"
Atlanta/Miami is very in doubt. Atlanta's ahead right now; if they win they would tie it up, 2-2.
Yeah, I changed the wording of that first paragraph in the excerpt, forgot to change it in the body.
And other than that, I don't know if momentum even exists, so I wouldn't be too worried about who has it. I mean, we obviously had lots of momentum going into Game 4. Then we lost. I've seen teams that went up 3-1 lose the next two games and come back to win Game 7. I would say that we were able to go up 2-1 in the first place (and by a total margin of -3 points at that) primarily because we were way more efficient on offense than we were over the course of the regular season. In Game 4 we go cold, but we do hit a lot of threes and beat them on possessions (rebounding and turnovers). I'd say that the cold shooting is likely to continue but the three-point shooting and outrebounding them is not.
my best guess is that both teams are doing all right psychologically. rashard and turk both seem relatively cool and detached (maybe you have to be to put up with van gundy) -- if anyone is to be spooked, perhaps it would be howard worrying about not being able to lead his heavily favored team out of the first round. speaking of howard, it sure seems that he hardly misses a shot down low; i still like the sixers single coverage on him and maybe the refs let him get away with stuff, but he has shown off some nice finishing skills; maybe the sixers can try to think of some ways to either front or deny him the ball or try to force him further away from the basket.
about the sixers, i think they really believe they can win too. it's probably not too much about tactics anymore, instead it's about making jumpers and FTs, all-out hustle and making good decisions with the ball. i think game 5 winner wins the series.
Howard is a much better offensive player than I thought he was. There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't be used like Shaq was in his prime. He isn't that good, yet, but he could be. Needs to become a better passer.
i had no idea howard is actually left handed. he taught himself to use his right in 8th grade after breaking his left wrist. that would explain how he finishes so well around the rim with either hand. i've been so impressed with him this series.
I wonder if Sammy will pick up any ideas of how to be a REAL center in the NBA from Howard? He is quite a player, wish he was on our team!
The only way we win is to shoot well and continue defending like we have the past games, overall. We have to cut down on stupid turnovers like Lou going to the basket w/ no outlet. We also need to show evergy and come to the ball when we are getting passes.
I would like to feel more confident that the Sixers could win this series but the NBA more then any other sport usually runs true to form with higher seeds winning in the first round. I looked back on Golden State upsetting Dallas 2 years ago and while they won in 6 they went up 3-1 by taking game 5 in Dallas. So while this one is tied I do agree that the winner of this game will almost defintely take the series.
Think it all comes down to Turkoglu. If he plays like he did in Game 4 (and I don't just mean the winning shot), Orlando probably wins. He was much more active Sunday.
Fringe players tend to be much better at home in the playoffs.
One example is Willie Green.
Games 1 and 2: 2-for-11, 4 points
G 3 and 4: 10-for-17, 23 points
Turk shot the ball better, and he hit the game-winner obviously, but his overall game was still pretty weak. 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 turnovers. I can live with 17 points out of him with those numbers in the other categories. Honestly, I can live with everything the Sixers gave Orlando on the defensive end, I think if we get another defensive game like that tonight, it's a Philly win.
About time Thad showed up. And find a way to play Speights, especially when you can't buy a basket.
I shall refrain from getting too psyched up as I prepare for the inevitable disappointment.