
This series could be over. The Sixers could have swept. At the same time, Orlando could've swept. Instead, we're tied 2-2 and even though the
Magic have stolen home court advantage back, this series is far from decided.
I'm not sure how it looked at home, but in the stadium, the first half was clearly about the refs swallowing their whistles and letting Dwight Howard do whatever he wanted. Rules be damned. By my count, Howard committed 5 serious fouls in the first 24 minutes, at least. Only one of them was called. Of course, the Sixers bigs who were defending him were whistled for five. Three things kept the Sixers tied with Orlando through the first half: amazing three-point shooting, incredible defensive rebounding and Stan Van Gundy's refusal to go Howard even though the Sixers couldn't stop him and the refs were blowing the whistle whenever he was breathed on. They were lucky to get into the locker room tied 36-36.
The third quarter was the third quarter. Yet again, Orlando came out and stepped on the Sixers. Do they have huge third quarters because Van Gundy makes great adjustments and the Sixers make none? Do they have big third quarters because Dwight Howard is actually involved in the offense? Do they have huge third quarters because Willie Green is on the floor? I have no idea. None. I don't think DiLeo does either. Down 9 heading into the fourth, things weren't looking good.
And then the fourth quarter happened. It was a see-saw for the first 7 minutes. The Sixers would make inroads, the Magic would push the lead back up to double digits. Up to the five-minute mark, the lead would never grow larger than ten, the Sixers would never come closer than 5. Then, at the 5:13 mark with the Sixers trailing 77-67, with all hope seemingly lost, Thad Young came back into the game and the team went on a 14-4 run. With 22 seconds remaining, Philly came up with its fourth consecutive stop and called a timeout. They drew up a play, believe it or not. Andre Iguodala had the ball in the typical iso, 1-4 set, with Hedo on him. Only this time, instead of going at Hedo one-on-one, Sam Dalembert came up to set a screen. Orlando reacted the same way they'd reacted to this play all game long, Dwight Howard showed on the screen and went out to double Iguodala hard. This time, however, the Sixers were ready for it. Dalembert dove right to the front of the rim where Iggy found him for the dunk and the tie. Beautiful play and beautiful execution.
I've seen the post game comments from the Magic, and I think people are reading way too much into them. Basically, Orlando was saying they wanted whoever Thad was on to take the final shot. I'm not taking that as a knock on Thad, I'm taking it as a completely rational fear of Iguodala. Thad was the lesser of two evils, and they obviously wanted one of their forwards taking the shot, you know, instead of the best player on the floor. Thad gave Hedo too much room to work with, especially with the clock down to the point where he didn't really have the option of driving. Hedo hit the shot. End of game.
Those last five minutes were completely insane at the Wach. 16,400 and change were as loud as I've ever heard them. When Orlando pushed the lead back to ten, I thought it was over. Just about everyone in the stadium thought it was over. The only people who didn't were Thad Young, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Lou Williams and Sam Dalembert. Those guys really showed me something tonight. More than anything, they showed me how much they've grown since this time last year. Virtually the same thing happened in game four against Detroit, except when they fell behind, they turtled up. They caved, they gave in. Tonight, they fought back, they fought all the way back. I don't know who's going to win this series, but I do know that the final three games are nowhere near a foregone conclusion. The Sixers are here to stay and I firmly believe they can take another game in Orlando.
I want to touch on two more things. The first is something that I'm sure certain people are going to misconstrue tomorrow morning. Andre Iguodala played an excellent game tonight. Excellent. People will look at his shooting line, see 4/13 and say he blew the game. What they won't see is that three of those shots came at the end of quarters, desperation threes. They won't see that on a couple of other attempts he was hammered, the whistles were silent. Say he gets one of those calls, then we're looking at 4/9 from the floor for Iggy. 9 shots is probably too few for Iguodala to take under normal circumstances, but these were far from normal circumstances. Iguodala was doubled pretty much every time he touched the ball. Instead of forcing shots against a super-aggressive double, he was keeping his dribble and picking the defense apart with his passing. There's a reason the Sixers put 6 guys in double figures, it's because Iguodala was making them pay when they doubled him. A better shooting night from Andre Miller (6/18) or Thad (6/17) and this game is probably a blowout win. Anyone who tries to pin this loss on Iguodala because he
only scored 13 points is out of his or her mind.
The second point relates to an argument I saw in the game thread. I understand the argument that the Sixers should've held the ball for the final shot on the possession when they tied it up. I understand it, but I vehemently disagree. Down by two, 22 seconds left on the clock, you have to get the highest-percentage shot possible, as quickly as you can. Under no circumstances do you want to make it a hit the shot or lose situation, because you don't have to. If you take the shot and miss with 15 seconds left, you can foul to extend the game. If you take the shot with 10 seconds left, you give yourself the chance to grab an offensive rebound. There are so many different ways you can either tie the game up or win it. If you wait for the buzzer, you're not only looking at a lower-percentage shot, most-likely, but you're putting all your eggs in one basket. They called a brilliant play, they executed it perfectly. You absolutely cannot ask for better than a wide-open dunk in that situation. Hedo hit a big shot, we lost. It happens. We're talking about a guy who was 6 for his last 30 from three going back to the end of March, 20%, shooting from a couple of feet behind the line, with a man on him. Sometimes people defy the odds, I don't think you can make a valid argument against anything DiLeo did in the final 5:13 of the game, nor the game his players played on the floor (with the exception of Iggy's missed free throw, obviously.)
The one play that really infuriated me came earlier in the fourth. Rashard Lewis picked off a lazy Lou Williams pass, Lou raced down the floor and got in front of him just as he passed the foul line. He had a chance to wrap him up, take a foul, and prevent a shot from even being taken. Instead, he let Lewis go all the way to the hoop, hit the layup, and gave him a soft, touch foul for the and-one. Stupid, stupid play. This is the playoffs, when you foul someone, make sure they stay fouled, especially in a situation like that.
Finally, I think we have to take notice of Dalembert's play down the stretch, and the team's unbelievable effort on the defensive glass. Sammy came in with just over 7 minutes left in the game when Ratliff picked up his fifth foul. In the final 7 minutes, Sammy owned the defensive glass, grabbing 4 boards, and scoring 4 points, including the dunk to tie it. This is the second game in a row that his presence on the floor down the stretch paid huge dividends, I can only hope that it doesn't take foul trouble for Theo to get him off the bench in the fourth in game 5. And now the stat of the night. Orlando had 3 offensive rebounds on the game, the Sixers grabbed 33 defensive boards, that's a 91.7% defensive rebounding percentage, which is unheard of. Like I said earlier, better shooting nights from Thad and Miller and this game is a blowout.
Player of The Game: Iguodala
Series Record: 2-2
Up Next: Tuesday @ Orlando (7:30pm on NBATV boo.)
Bonus Reading: Hey, that Iguodala guy is pretty good.
If I had told you the Sixers would own the defensive glass and shoot better from three than Orlando, would you have given Orlando even a slim chance to win the game?
On your third quarter quandary, the guys only shot 7 for 18 (with one an end of quarter heave), I think, with 3 turnovers (roughly their average per quarter tonight). It doesn't have to do with SVG, Willie, or any other suggestions. It just comes down to making shots.
The second quarter was the killer for me tonight. Looking back, that is where we had to win the game in a sense, by holding them down but not capitalizing on it.
Good to see the clarity on the Magic post game comments, as I didn't see them like that either. I just thought they were implying they wanted to avoid Iguodala at all costs.
Spot on with the Iguodala observation, they were trying to take it out of his hands all night with the doubles. That is why he had 11 assists.
Someone had mentioned Lou's +/- in the game thread - when he played almost 11 minutes in the second quarter we had a whopping 14 pts scored but fortunately only 'gave up' 12.
We hit two game winners, they hit one. It's the playoffs baby. Chalk it up and move on.
It took me the whole ride home to get some perspective, but there's no reason to hang your head. I've watched a ton of playoff basketball and I think it's safe to say no team has shown as much effort on a consistent basis as the Sixers. Like I said before, each game is the most important, now they need to get it done in game 5. Nothing impossible about it.
I was so pissed with Lou's foul on Lewis, too. He was freaking trying to steal the ball from Lewis' hands when they were already under the basket. Not smart.
Going into the next game, I hope they know that strategically speaking, they've done all the right things. It was just a matter of execution/shooting touch. So hopefully that fighting spirit carries over to Florida.
Brian, that place WAS rockin, I hope it translated to the nationalT.V. watchers. Iggy deferred well, my only issue is his penchant for leaving his feet on passes.I thought Orlando!s defense was the key, nothing came easy for us.But to come back again in spite of no snipers is telling as far as the heart of this group, and bodes well for us when Elton and a shooter is added next year. This series I believe we are playing as a team that is greater than the sum of its parts, something they didn!t do all year.
My ears are still ringing a little bit, just imagine if it was sold out.
If I had told you the Sixers would own the defensive glass and shoot better from three than Orlando, would you have given Orlando even a slim chance to win the game?
And turn it over less... and grab 10(+7) offensive rebounds... and shoot better from the line.
That was probably the most bizarre game from a statistical standpoint of the season.
no question about it, if you're losing and have the ball, you take the best shot possible regardless of the time; it's only if you're tied that you can afford to hold for the last shot.
any chance someone can post the text from that espn insider article about iguodala?
I'll second that.
I understand both sides of the last shot argument.
I understand the whole idea of maybe giving yourself a chance if you miss by going early. But that does not change the fact that going early gives the opponent a chance to beat you in regulation and OT. That really waters down your odds of success. It would be different if Sam's dunk gave them the lead. Then the whole equation swings the other way. Then you need just one stop for the win, instead of one stop and OT.
1. You have a chance to control your destiny and go for the win. Even if the odds were slightly better with a quick shot (and they are not, see below), you take the chance to win. Its like kicking a field goal down 3 with 2 minutes left when you are on the other teams 15 yard-line.
2. I like numbers and have a math background, but will try and keep this simple and use round numbers...
Say you tie the game with 12 sec left. Give the opponent a 50% chance of winning in regulation and another 50% chance of winning in OT.
That means your early score must have a 4X higher likelihood of working then your chances holding for the last shot. Otherwise you are playing the wrong percentage...
-you could say that a dunk is 100%- then even a 25% chance from 3pt would be as good or better a choice.
BUT that early score was not 100%. Maybe it was a 70% play (including the risks of driving and Sam making the catch.) That would mean even a 20% chance of a 3pt shot would be playing the odds better.
I get the mathematical argument, but I think there are just too many variables in a basketball game to break it down like that.
First of all, if it was a 24-second possession with Orlando having the ability to score at any time in the shot clock, then yes, it's roughly a 50% chance they will win the game in regulation. That was not the case, however. Orlando had 14 seconds to work with, and they were intent on using as much time as possible, meaning instead of taking a shot with a 50% chance of converting, they instead got at best, what a 30% shot to win it? Probably even lower than that. That skews the math greatly. After all, if Orlando shoots too quickly, then the Sixers have more time to take the game-winning, or game-tying shot on the other end.
You also aren't taking into account the possible positive outcome of a missed shot. If the Sixers had held for the final shot and missed, odds of winning in regulation drop to zero. Odds of winning in overtime drop to zero. Had they missed a shot with 14 seconds remaining, they had several ways to still win in both regulation and overtime. Probably not a great percentage, but their offensive rebounding percentage was 23% for the game.
Bottom line, getting a high-percentage shot to tie the game in the middle of the possession gives you several different ways to win the game. Holding for the last shot does not. I think maybe you could sway me a little bit if you were simply arguing to go for the three, but I don't think I'll be swayed on the timing of the shot. The simplest answer to this debate is to just say you don't want to be in the position with the ball, down 2, with less than 24 seconds to go.
I've admittedly beat this horse to death... but last question:
If the roles had been reversed and Orlando had the ball down 2 with 24 sec left... As a Sixer fan, would you have felt better with Orlando holding for the last shot versus a quick drive and dish from Hedo to Howard for a dunk?
I know I would have breathed a lot easier if they scored the quick two and then gave the Sixers the chance to win it with 12 sec left. If they had held on for a last sec three for the win I would be much more worried.
Well, we were faced with the same situation in game three, right? It's a different proposition for Orlando, for a couple of reasons. First of all, they have I think four 40% three-point shooters on their roster, so the three is a higher percentage shot for them than the Sixers. They were also on the road, the tenet has always been play for the win on the road, tie at home. (you'd have to think home court advantage would kick in in overtime of a playoff game, especially with the crowds in the past two games). The Sixers, on the other hand, don't have any league-average three-point shooters outside of Donyell. Even with better odds, Orlando still went for the quick two to Howard.
That being said, obviously you'd rather get the ball back with the score tied than have the other team drain a three at the buzzer, but just because we'd feel better about the situation as fans doesn't mean our statistical probability of winning is better in one situation over the other. Like I said before, missed shot at the buzzer, it's 100% a win for the team up by two. Made shot with 10 seconds left, it's what, at best a 50% chance of winning in regulation, and a 50% chance of winning in overtime.
If you use the football comparison, it would help to include what down it is on the other team's 15 yard-line. For the sake of your point and the situation last night, that is like it being 3rd down and goal to go from the 15 yard-line with 2 minutes to go. You have to kick the field goal to tie it just to give yourself another opportunity.
They ran around 10 seconds off the shot clock within a play design and the look suddenly presented itself. You have to take it because you are behind.
Not directed towards you, but I bet if they went for the 3 and win and missed, everyone would be clamoring that they should have went for the quick 2.
While the math argument is nice, it holds no weight within a team concept like basketball. Too many variables come into play.
Probably like 4th and goal on the 5 with 90 sec and no timeouts. The FG is more automatic than a pass to Sam... but either scenario you would at best get OT unless you go for it all.
Definitely not cut and dry either way- and they likely lose either way.
i guess it does not take away from their comeback, but still hurts.
I'm not sure I agree with the likely to lose in this situation for the Sixers. Less than 50% chance Orlando scores on that possession at the end of regulation. Then 50/50 at worst, that they lose in overtime. Are you multiplying the probabilities to say they have a 25% chance of winning?
Yep. Thats basic stat's right? If you flip a coin and must get heads both times you have a 25% chance of getting it...
I'm finally ready to move on. I was definitely fixated on the wrong play, and its over. That reminder of the same situation breaking in the Sixers favor game one has me in a better place. Ready for game 5.
I like Lou, so keep that in mind. When Lou made that soft pass, I was mad at Lou BUT THE RECIEVER DID NOT EVEN TAKE A STEP TO TRY TO GET THE BALL!!! NOT A STEP. C
Come on, guys. If you are covered, you have to try. I believe if Iggy passed the ball to Lou, we would be yelling at Lou.
And yes, what a horrible foul by Lou at the end. He did not have his best game but the refs were letting our guys get knocked out and not get a foul called for them.
in plays like that the person passing the ball is always at fault. it's just a bad lazy pass. end of story.
People in all countries get the credit loans in different creditors, because this is simple and comfortable.