I missed all of the early games due to, well, putting food on the table, but tonight I got a chance to watch a decent chunk of basketball. Some quick thoughts after the jump.
I wanted to see two players, in particular, Greg Monroe and Cole Aldrich. Mixed results from what I saw:
- Let's start with Monroe, this is the third game in a row of his that I've seen, and I have to say I hope he goes back for another year at Georgetown. Not because I think he needs more polish, but because I think there's an outside chance the Sixers could draft him and I want no part of that. I understand his exceptional skill level for a big man, but I truly believe he has the wrong skill set to be a dominant big in the pros. It's nice for a center to be able to pass and dribble, but it's not important. I should say, it's not important enough to overlook the crucial skills for the position in the NBA. To me, he doesn't look like much of an athlete, he doesn't impact the game on the defensive end, even at the collegiate level, and all of his production seems to come from the fact that he's got a handle and some moves in space. I don't see him dominating down low, which a legit big man should be doing at this level. Perhaps some of the offensive problems I've witnessed are a result of the offense Georgetown runs, but to me, he just doesn't have the all around game, nor the demeanor to be a dominant big in the pros.
- Aldrich, on the other hand, absolutely changed that Kansas game. He was a beast in the middle, and when he was on the floor North Texas simply had no chance. He was in foul trouble in the first half, and seemed winded after a couple times up and down the floor in the second, but overall, I liked what I saw from him on the defensive end, which is the most important thing, for me, out of a big. You can find minutes for a defensive big who rebounds no matter what. You can work to develop a dependable offensive move or two. If a big is going to be one-dimensional out of college, I think it's important that defense is that side. You just don't see too many guys developing defensive skills, and blocking shots is something that I consider almost genetic. Whatever it is, he's got it. Do I want the Sixers to draft him? Probably not. I still wonder how he'll compete when he isn't the biggest, strongest player on the floor, I also wonder how he'd hold up if the Sixers continue to run, but at the same time, I wouldn't be pissed if they drafted him.
My biggest takeaway on the night, though, was Avery Bradley's exceptional play. He only shot 4/15 from the floor, he's a tweener, he only shot 55% from the line this season, and I'd still absolutely love to have him on my team. He put more pressure on the ball than you could possibly imagine, picking up his man full court, harassing him into multiple turnovers. It was honestly a thing of beauty. Do I think he'll be a star at the next level? Not unless his offensive game improves by leaps and bounds. Would I use a lottery pick on him? Absolutely not. Could he step in and be a rotational, change-of-pace guard on a playoff team next season? Yes, I think so. Think of him as the anti-Lou Williams, a combo guard to come off the bench and harass the opposing team's PG. A guy to hawk the ball, and make it extremely difficult for the other team to get into their sets. Think of him as a cooler.
Chad Ford has Bradley going in the late lottery, which seems high to me based on what I saw and his numbers, but mark my words, he's going to be a pro for a long time, and that defense is going to make one team extremely happy.
It's funny that I'm raving about the defense of a guy whose man hit a game-winner to knock Texas out of the tourney, but don't overlook the fact that Bradley forced Ishmael Smith into 8 turnovers and very nearly put the game out of reach with a big steal early in overtime.
Leave your thoughts from the tourney in the comments.
One caveat. That was the only time I've seen Bradley play, and his pressure was INTENSE. If that's how he played all the time, love the guy. If that suddenly showed up because of the big stage, not so much.
Bradley had an up and down year but is highly rated, being compared to M. Ellis earlier this year.Not sure he can play any p.g. though and tired of the undersized s.g.!s. If he and Anderson were on the board as our choices, he would probably be an "upside pick" for us. I have no problem with Alrich if we are picking 7 or lower, he may have to be reinvented offensively, especially in the post, but he knows how to play and we haven!t had that in a 5 in a long time.
Agree with you on Monroe, though I.Q. is lacking on this team and he knows how to play. Spieghts is a lot more skilled but not sure he will be a better player than Greg.
He WAS highly rated. He's not really anymore. He went from a potential top 10 pick to second half of the first round once his offensive limitations because very noticeable. You take away his spot-up jumper and he's virtually non-existent offensively.
15+ ? Yeah, he's got value. Brian's right that he's a great pressure defender, and he's fairly long so he should be able to defend some 2. And his jumper gives him some help offensively, so he'll provide value as a role player. He's just not the centerpiece people viewed his potential as coming into the season.
btw, this is the classic example of expectations. People are probably more down on Bradley than they should be because of how far below expectations he has produced, but someone who hasn't seen him before and hasn't had the same expectations see the positives he brings.
I view him as a fairly safe pick around the 20's. I just had such higher expectations.
Monroe: Something about him I really like but can't put a finger on it. He may actually be a better pro. How's his jumper? Could he develop into a "DC" kind of player? Seems he needs further development but he's an intriguing prospect. His true NBA size may determine where he is chosen. If he's undersized he'll drop into the teens. If he's legit 6'11" in sneaks, he'll be top 10.
I have 3 major questions about Monroe:
1) Can he defend the pick and roll/perimeter
2) Can he develop any semblance of a right hand?
3) Can he develop a jump shot?
It's actually surprising how infrequently he attempts jump shots, as you'd expect a guy with his ball skills to be more proficient at it. Similarly, he has zero right hand. None. Neither on drives or on post moves.
He looks like a much better post defender this year than he did last year. If he can play the 5 and defend either position (i.e. the weaker of the two he's playing against on the perimeter), the problem defending the pick and roll becomes less troublesome.
Monroe's jumper, or lack of, is sort of funny to me too. He has taken a few three's this year but he doesn't really shoot the mid-range that often.
Now, if I had the handle he does at that size I wouldn't be concerned with shooting medium range jumpers either, I'd just blow by them like he does. But I also think it is a product of the system he is playing in. It calls for the big at the high post to be a facilitator (which he is very good at) and when he freelances I think that is when you see him attack off the dribble. So, not much need for him to take a 10-12 footer when in his mind he knows he can pretty much take whoever is guarding him.
But for me, I didn't have much of a concern with him developing a jumper because of his textbook form on his free throws and the few three's I've seen him take this year but not necessarily make.
The right hand doesn't worry me that much either because most guys want to defend the right one anyway (and as you said earlier, most guys in the league don't know which one to defend or not), and if you isolate him somewhere close to the block facing up he should pose a threat because of his quick first step and controlled handle. And if he is that much of a threat then he should call for a double. But he clearly has to develop it in order to give defenders at the next level more to take into account of which way he is going or which shoulder he is favoring.
But I would like to see more post-work/moves though, which is really hard to see with him playing in this type of offense.
On the defending the pick/roll, not many bigs are adept at doing this anyway. I think this can result from some good coaching or system.
I would take him over Aldrich in a heartbeat though. Aldrich is just too lumbering for me. More in the mold of an Ostertag which I want no part of with the way today's game is. He just reminds me of MacCulloch for some reason.
I remember you mentioning his FT form in the past. Just wondering why he's shooting 66% from the line if his form is so perfect.
My concern with Monroe is that he's got ancillary skills, but not the necessary skills for the position. It's like a PG who can post his man up, but can't dribble.
Now I didn't say it was perfect, the mechanics of it just look above par especially for a big man. But almost 7 out of 10 is darn good for a big. Most smalls in the league now shoot around that percentage.
Agree on the ancillary skills, but again how much of a chance have we had to see him in the post with the offense they run and what it asks him to do? Isn't it just as good to have the ancillary skills already and be coached up on post moves and footwork?
I know your concern is post defense but I just haven't had a chance to see him isolated up down there that much with the way the college teams are so perimeter oriented.
One thing though is that his frame and feet seem to plod, for lack of a better term, when transitioning moreso than looking athletic or gazelle-like.
You said "textbook" form. So textbook is below perfect?
Sure it is. Perfect would be 100%. No one shoots at that.
Textbook as in a characteristic example of shot-form; typical.
I worry more about his right hand in the post than on dribble drives, actually. I prefer my big men to be ambidextrous in the post, and he's not even close. Not a guarantee he develops it, either.
On dribble drives I think he'll be able to get by with primarily his left hand.
An outside shot enhances his passing ability tenfold. Getting by on drives is fine and dandy, but it doesn't enhance his ability to pass from the high post. If his man has to come up and guard him from 17' out, and pull out a shotblocker, that enhances his ability to have the offense run through him at times.
Aldrich is lumbering from a straight ahead standpoint, but I think he moves his feet fairly well defensively. I do think Aldrich is a better pick and roll defender than Monroe, and fairly significantly at that.
It's amazing how much I've watched on Monroe and how I'm still not completely sold. Very intrigued, but not convinced. Even with how much I've watched, I'll probably watch about every game of G'Town's before June. He's just one of the hardest prospects I have in terms of projecting to the next level.
"but overall, I liked what I saw from him on the defensive end, which is the most important thing, for me, out of a big. You can find minutes for a defensive big who rebounds no matter what. You can work to develop a dependable offensive move or two. If a big is going to be one-dimensional out of college, I think it's important that defense is that side. You just don't see too many guys developing defensive skills, and blocking shots is something that I consider almost genetic."
This sounds so similar to Sam however many years ago and still to this day. Except for the developing an offensive move or two. You would think after all these years just one move would surface. Guess it's the pregame three-pointers or the soccer feet.
Not sure what kind of point you're making here. Sam is a perfect example, actually. He's a serviceable NBA center without having a lick of offensive ability. The flip side of the coin is Eddy Curry.
Wasn't really making a particular point, just more of a disappointment and indictment of Sam the player. And that I'm exhausted of having just a 'serviceable NBA center'. Sort of if Aldrich is a figurative comparison to Sam then I've been down that road for far too long as a fan of this franshise.
Serviceable isn't even being fair to him. Look at this.
Of centers who have played 5,000 minutes minimum in the past decade, Sam ranks #8 in rebounds/36, #8 in blocks/36, #35 in pts/36, 17th in fg%.
As much as many people don't like him, he's been an asset and probably should've played more minutes than he has. He's also shot above 70% from the line for the past 5 seasons, and he's hitting at 79% this season, a career high.
Those numbers are nice and all and a good defense of him but they don't do squat for me. Sam is a bum, although I don't dislike him in the least. We've played 4 on 5 on offense for way too many years. And he's been in this league for way too many years to not show any discernable improvement, much less just basic skill improvement.
So your solution to this problem is to play 4 on 5 at the defensive end and have no one to protect the rim? I guess it's just a priority thing. No matter how you cut it, though, Sam isn't a bum, not when you look around the league at the other 29 starting centers. He's overpaid, but he's productive and he's in the top half of centers.
Is he in the top half of centers every year or just this year when he seems to be playing at a level (perceived) he doesn't usually play (and only it seems when iverson was here)
I'd say probably 5 of the 8 years he's been in the league. Not his rookie year, and 04-06.
No, my solution is to play 5 on 5 at both ends and those guys are out there and can be found.
I don't think Monroe's one of them. Actually, I think there's a better chance Aldrich is that right now than Monroe will eventually turn into it.
Interesting. I will attempt to place a more keen eye on Aldrich if they advance then.
I watched a fair bit of the Wake Forest game, was not that impressed with Aminu. He seems to have bad hands, because he bobbled a bunch of passes and couldn't finish a couple times on what should have been dunks.
I checked into the Kansas game a few times but Aldrich was out and Xavier Henry was invisible while I was watching. I keep hoping to see a standout SG -- tall, defends well, knocks down jumpers consistently -- but haven't really, other than Turner.
The Sixers, unfortunately, treat shooting guards like the Eagles treat linebackers -- it's an afterthought position. When's the last time the Sixers drafted a player in the 1st round who is primarily a shooting guard? I think it was Larry Hughes in '98.
Didn't they sort of want Hughes to play the point, though? Stackhouse is the last one before that I can think of.
Yes brown wanted to play hughes at the point - so no paul pierce or dirk nowitzki :)
If you didn't like Aminu last night, you're probably not going to like Aminu. That was one of his better performances. He flat out dominated Damion James.
His defense probably doesn't get enough pub, and I think it projects fairly well to the next level. I have a lot of concerns offensively, and worse I think he'd be a bad fit on this team offensively.
Aminu is a scrub to me. He's the prototypical but dreaded 'upside' prospect and why the league is so watered down with bad teams now. Taking all these kids hoping they turn into something instead of proven, more-ready guys currently. How he's a lottery projection is laughable.
Poor scouting and a focus on athleticism versus skill all the way back to high school (or earlier) isa problem.
People keep blaming the NBA - they can only take the players available to them - the players come to college lacking skill
Did you have to project Kevin Garnett?
What about Josh Smith?
What about Jermaine O'Neil?
I'm not even an Aminu fan, but you can't blindly throw out player development, either. If he projects to be a plus defender, I'm more willing to wait on his offensive development. His interviews and private workouts will be key.
I've been thinking that 'basketball iq' turns out to be a problem with a lot of guys who get to the highest level where their natural athleticism won't let them dominate like it has in the past (looking at you thad)
Do you know if any teams / the nba has any sort of 'wunderlic' that tests a players basketball iq or such?
Good question. I'm wondering what the interviews at the pre-draft workouts are like. Are they more concerned w/ personality, or basketball-related knowledge? Or both?
From my perception agents have a lot more 'control' over the draft process in the NBA then in the NFL - guys can avoid certain things in the NFL draft but the 'combine' is attended by almost everyone to a point who wants to be drafted, and while i'm not saying 'wunderlic' test i'm saying some sort of 'basketball iq' test should be important...
NOthing personal but, you'll be waiting for quite some time on that offense. The guy is not pro material. He's just another AAU produced raw athlete. KG and the like shouldn't even be mentioned as comps here. They had palpable levels of skill, Al Farouq does not.
And we will have to disagree on his defense too. He got ate up by mediocre guys in his own league.
Bottom line, Aminu is a athletic-drooled-over-by-GM's type, but a better served D-Leaguer.
You're making an argument I'm not. I've been against Aminu since November. Josh Smith and KG weren't used to directly compare to Aminu, just to throw out the notion that athletic players who you have to project never pan out.
http://forums.phillyarena.com/index.php?topic=5921.0
I'm not "waiting" for anything. Saying "if his defense is there I'm more willing to wait for his offense" isn't me saying I'm willing to wait for him to develop. Subtle, but there is a difference. I've been against Aminu from the beginning of the season.
"I'm not "waiting" for anything."
Hence why I prefaced my reply with 'nothing personal'.
The best thing about Aminu is the nickname potential. Acid is a sick nickname.
You mean like "Aminu Acid"? That's hilarious!
Absolutely. That one writes itself.
I think Evan Turner's nickname is "The Villain," per his twitter. Also, he already has a relationship with Iguodala, from the Chicago background/ATTACK athletics
He's also going to be gone by the 3rd pick in the draft.
You know what is so beautiful, yet so utterly ugly, about this post/thread?
Here we are near the end of March and we are having intelligent back and forth discussion about a bunch of friggin' draft prospects!
No talk about the Sixers at all. No playoff talk for third straight year. No next opponent matchup talk.
Sad,so sad, I know. Pass me the Kleenex too guys....ahhhhh, the life, the life of a Sixers fan, you gotta love it...
No playoff talk for third straight year
Huh?
I took it as this would've been the third straight year with playoff talk.
Oh, ok, that makes sense in an round about way
I agree with some of what you say, especially regarding our team but G.Wallace is a good example of an athlete that grew as a basketball player and teams with talent can reach for a guy like that to develop. Aminu is averaging a double/double I believe so he could be worth a top 10 pick for a Utah, as an example.
Gotta say, Temples poor performance reinforces my 'teams i root for fail when they are favored' idea...so i won't be surprised if wofford beats wisconsin :)