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The Willie Green Quotient

I'm tired of advanced stats that tell us how great LeBron James is. I'm sick of metrics that measure Shane Battier's hidden value to the Rockets. What I'm interested in is a stat that can put into simple terms exactly how much a player sucks. It's with this in mind that I created the Willie Green quotient.

I have to give credit to Joe from the comments, he was the inspiration for this post. Over the past couple of seasons, he's referenced a simple equation for Willie (assists + rebound - field goal attempts) several times. I started with that equation, but I thought it was unfair to Willie. Even some of the best players in the league would wind up with negative numbers regularly. So I put on my thinking cap and came up with what is probably the simplest advanced statistic ever created, the Willie Green Quotient:

Here's the exact formula: (REB + AST + STL + BLK) - ((FGA-FG) + TOV) = WGQ

Pretty straight forward, right? No weighting, no positional adjustments, not even any multiplication or division. Simply the most bare-bones measure for how much any one player sucks.

To achieve a negative score, you need to keep missing shots, and basically avoid helping the team in any other area. In short, you play like Willie.

  • Willie Green: -1.29
  • Lou Williams: -1.89
  • Andre Iguodala: 3.05
  • Andre Miller: 3.55
  • Royal Ivey: 0.03
  • Kareem Rush: -0.46

Now, here's the breakdown of how many games each player had with a negative WGQ:

  • Willie Green: 47
  • Lou Williams: 49
  • Andre Iguodala: 18
  • Andre Miller: 19
  • Royal Ivey: 25
  • Kareem Rush: 14

And a couple more fun WGQ stats:

Worst single-game WGQ: Lou Williams, Feb 21st @ Miami -11
  • 30 minutes
  • 7/19 from the floor
  • 2 rebounds
  • 1 assist
  • 0 steals
  • 0 blocks
  • 2 turnovers
Best single-game WGQ: Andre Miller, Dec 20th vs. Indiana +16
  • 42 minutes
  • 5/12 from the floor
  • 10 rebounds
  • 12 assists
  • 1 steal
  • 0 blocks
  • 0 turnovers

Andre Iguodala's best WGQ, Feb 5th vs. Indiana +14
  • 44 minutes
  • 8/13 from the floor
  • 8 rebounds
  • 11 assists
  • 4 steals
  • 0 blocks
  • 4 turnovers
Willie Green's worst WGQ, Feb 17th @ Indiana -8
  • 29 minutes
  • 6/16 from the floor
  • 2 rebounds
  • 1 assist
  • 1 steal
  • 0 blocks
  • 2 turnovers
Lou Williams best WGQ, Nov 28th @ Boston +8
  • 20 minutes
  • 5/7 from the floor
  • 1 rebound
  • 6 assists
  • 3 steals
  • 0 turnovers
Team record when either Andre has a WGQ of +10 or greater: 14-1
Team record when either Andre has a WGQ of -1 or worse: 12-25
Team record when either Lou or Willie has a WGQ of +1 or greater: 21-17
Team record when either Lou or Willie has a WGQ of -5 or worse: 10-24
Team record when Andre Miller has a WGQ of +5 or greater: 25-10

And here's a look at how the players do in team wins and losses:

In wins (average WGQ)
  • Willie Green: -1.1
  • Lou Williams: -1.05
  • Andre Iguodala: 3.98
  • Andre Miller: 5.3
  • Royal Ivey: 0.36
  • Kareem Rush: 0.36
In losses (average WGQ)
  • Willie Green: -1.51
  • Lou Williams: -2.81
  • Andre Iguodala: 2.08
  • Andre Miller: 1.71
  • Royal Ivey: -0.29
  • Kareem Rush: -1.15
So, what can we glean from these numbers? Well, first of all, the stat should probably be called the Lou Williams Quotient, because Lou is actually the worst on the team. I'm sticking with WGQ, though, because it has a nice ring to it. Second, check out Andre Miller's splits, he's dominant in the wins, and barely passable in the losses. Iguodala has a significant edge in the wins, but it's not as pronounced as Miller's difference. Willie is a team killer always, a little bit moreso in losses, and Lou goes from bad to abysmal.

The team records above show that as the Andres go, so go the Sixers. 14-1 when either of them has 10+ WGQ, meaning, when their best players have their best games, the team wins. That's a good sign, I suppose. It's troubling that Willie and Lou have been allowed to have -5 WGQ's 34 times this season. To me, that says they don't know when to stop shooting and the coaches haven't benched them when they've been killing the team.

What do you guys think? A futile attempt at quantifying piss-poor play? A useful metric? I'm too hard on good 'ole Willie, BK thought he was good enough for a long-term deal and who am I to argue with BK? Thoughts in the comments, as usual.
by Brian on Apr 11 2009
Tags: Basketball | Sixers | Willie Green Quotient |