In what I believe is a five-man draft, the Sixers most-likely landing spot in the draft lottery is number six. After the jump, let's take a look at the teams who will probably be drafting ahead of the Sixers and see if we can identify a player who two who may sneak into the top five ahead of Philly.
A few updates first.
Chad Ford has finally updated his lottery/mock draft machine, he now has the Sixers taking Al-Farouq Aminu if they stay at the #6 pick.
DraftExpress has also updated their mock (though they haven't taken team needs into account), they have the Sixers drafting Cole Aldrich at #6.
OK, so we're assuming two things here: 1) The Sixers did
not move into the top three of the lottery. 2) None of the teams below the Sixers leap-frogged over them into the top three. Meaning, New Jersey, Minnesota, Sacramento, Golden State and Washington will make picks 1-5 in some order. Let's go team by team:
- Nets - #1 they take Wall, #2 they take Turner. Probably no debate there. At #3, I believe they take Favors simply because they have Brook Lopez and I think they'd rather put the rebounder/defender at the four next to him than add another low-post scorer. Cousins seems redundant. At #4, I think there's a chance they could look to move the pick, or they'd look at Wesley Johnson over Cousins.
- Timberwolves - #1 I'm not sure what they do. Wall is the BPA, but they drafted two PGs last season in Flynn and Rubio. Would they spend another high lottery pick on a PG when they have so many other holes? They may opt for Turner here, or be willing to trade back, but they're Minnesota, so you never know. #2 they take Turner. #3 My guess if Favors. They need a defender up front, but this trade may be for sale as well, considering they've got Al Jefferson and Kevin Love up front. #4 It's a coin toss between Wes Johnson and Cousins. Cousins seems redundant with Al Jefferson up front, but if they take Cousins maybe they consider moving Jefferson and replacing him with a rookie-deal big who can do the same things. #5 ditto #4. Same logic. I don't really see Minny trading either the #4 or #5 pick unless they really don't like Wes Johnson.
- Sacramento - #1 Wall, #2 Turner, #3 Cousins, #4 Favors, #5 I guess Wes Johnson, though they really need a five. They may be willing to trade down from #4 or #5 if Cousins is off the board. They could also be a candidate to reach for a guy like Monroe, Aldrich or Aminu if they're at #5
- Golden State - #1 Wall, #2 Turner (Wall would probably lead to trading Monta Ellis, maybe Turner as well, though I could see GSW going with Turner at the three), #3 Cousins (Need a true center more than another offensive project 4), #4 Favors, #5 Wes Johnson. I don't see GSW moving this pick unless they have some kind of mandate to get rid of one of their bad contracts and this pick is the carrot to move a guy like Maggette.
- Washington - #1 Wall, #2 Turner, #3 Favors, #4 Cousins, #5 Possibly Monroe. I don't think Wash. will trade their pick. They're facing a ton of cap space with no one to spend it on. I think they'd move any pick if Gilbert Arenas's contract went out the door with it, but the odds of that are slim. I do think Wash. is one of the teams who could reach and a local guy like Monroe is a pretty good guess. When you look at their roster, I guess Blatche is the only keeper, if they think Blatche is a keeper. They need help all over the floor, but Monroe strikes me as a guy they think could move the attendance needle a little bit.
Of course, players rising and falling between now and the draft isn't just about questionable decisions made by the teams ahead of you, it's also about the combine, workouts and interviews. In the past, raw athleticism has driven players up draft boards. If that's the case, possibly Aminu slides into the top five. NBA decision makers also love size above all else, so keep an eye on Monroe and possibly Aldrich.
If I was a betting man, I'd probably lean on Aminu as my favorite for busting into the top five, probably at the expense of Wes Johnson. If you look at the players side-by-side, Aminu has better size, better athleticism and a freakish wing span. Attributes like that might have decision-makers overlooking shooting stats at the college level and falling in love with what Aminu could become.
Monroe has the "a big from Georgetown!" factor working in his favor, plus a rare skill set for a big man. He could be a riser as well.
What do you guys think? If we're stuckat six, is there any chance one of the top five falls to us, if so, which one, and who could sneak into the top five to bump him down?
Here's a question I was thinking about that osmoene who knows how to do this stuff better than me can figure out.
How many times has the '14 team' lottery gone to form - i.e. no one moved up or down?
How many times has the 14 team lottery gone to 'modified form' (the 1,2,3 are the teams with the 3 worst records but maybe not in the same order)?
It's only been 5 years, right?
I don't think the top pick has come from one of the three-worst team one time since it went to 14 teams in the past five years, has it?
2005 - MIL
2006 - TOR
2007 - POR
2008 - CHI
2009 - LAC
2010 - PHI
I believe the 'lebron' draft was the first time the #1 seed won the lottery in the 14 team draft (which i found very suspicious perosnally, I know everyone calls out the knicks and ewing for the fix, but come on, the ONE year that the worst team NEEDS to win the lottery is the first time they do?)
But that's why i asked about 'modified' form...when the top 3 were the 'right' 3 but in the wrong order...i mean that has the highest percentage of being the top 3 right?
There were only 13 in the LBJ draft. Yeah, of the 14-team lotteries, no team with the worst record has gotten the #1 pick. Actually, no team w/ a bottom three record has gotten the #1 pick.
Can you imagine what a kick in the balls it'll be if we get to #8 and the Sixers pop up? Lottery night is going to be a lot more exciting this year, hopefully.
I think the NET's go for a power forward if they don't get the first pick. I think they take Favors over Turner. They have Williams developing & Harris & others. Their PF position is pathetic.
Aminu is intriguing but is he another tweener? From what I can tell Aminu and Davis are the 2 guys outside of the top 5 with the highest ceilings. Any chance that Whiteside creeps into that 6-8 range with some impressive workouts?
Aminu is definitely a tweener, but with his wingspan and rebounding he may be a tweener who can legitimately play the four on the defensive end against most 4s in the league, and defend at a high level. I think he has an extremely under-developed offensive game, and I don't think he really has star potential, but if you're building to play the defend to run game, he could be a solid piece for you.
Do you have any feelings about or interest in the 7 footer from Lithuania, Donatas Motiejunas? On some mock drafts, he appears as high as sixth or seventh. They say he's sort of an Andrea Bargnani type. I don't remember the Sixers ever drafting a highly rated foreign player, but they could surprise us.
i like him for 2 reasons; 1] it allows Thad and Iggy to play the 3/2 because of his perimeter game 2] having 2 7 footers next to each other that can run the court [he and Sam] would be fun to watch. He would have to get at least 7 boards a night which Bargnani almost averaged this year.
So basically, you're talking maybe the working-man's hybrid of Josh Smith/Shawn Marion? As you said, built for the Defend To Run philosophy. Coachable, from what I heard, with a good work ethic
18.5% chance at top 3
40% chance at #6
40% chance at #7
1.5% chance at #9
Sorry, messed that up a bit :)
Something like:
18.5% chance at top 3
38% chance at #6
38% chance at #7
4% chance at %8
0.5% chance at #9
In terms of guys slipping, I agree that Cousins and Johnson are possibilities.
Cousins: A team has to be scared off by his personality and some other player needs to jump to where they are seen as having a high enough ceiling. basically Monroe or Aldrich has to really impress.
(not that my opinion is worth much, since I don't watch much college Basketball) but I'm starting to hope we get Aminu if we stay at the 6/7 pick. From what I read he has the wingspan to cover 4s, but will beat them down the court and is an excellent rebounder. He will still be pretty young when Brand is on the last year of his K, and until then can play some back up minutes at the 3/4. We will still have a hole as far as not having a shooter, but this team has a lot of holes.
Yeah, I would not pass on the best player just because of need. I'm not against a stretch 4 if he can rebound- something Young cannot do. But that means the Sixers would need an imposing center.
Back in college Young was one of the worst rebounding forwards in college basketball. Amazing how these things carry over to the pros. But if young could adapt to the SF position it would not an issue.
Where the hell did Thad's rebounding come from in his rookie year?
It was not great his rookie year considering he played almost exclusively at PF, where this year he played SF quite a bit (def reb rate 14.8%.)
Of course when you have guys like Brand and Smith as teammates 14.8% sounds pretty solid :(
I think one of the bigs will push Johnson to us at 6, and I will be very happy if they do. Question? Can Wash. even think of taking Cousins after this past year?
4/10 got the top 3 pick on Chad Ford's mock draft. Not too shabby.
we need david stern to step in here. it's to the nba's benefit for philadelphia to be competitive. he needs to hook us up with a top 3 pick.
I have not compared the contracts in the slightest but if the sixers traded elton brand for gilbert arenas and the 5 pick - who would be against it?
Washington would be against it. While the contract amounts look similar, they expire the same year. There is no advantage to Washington unless they just want GA out of town badly enough to give away a pick.
According to Story Tellers - Gilbert has one more year on his contract than brand (this assumes players pick up the options at the ends of their contracts, and seriously, Gilbert isn't turning down another 23 million)
Funny thing is - even though Brand makes more money than Arenas this year - according to storytellers - he makes less than Gilbert year by year after - never topping 20 - gilbert has two 20+ million dollar years according to the site.
So here's the thing, with all the stories about Brand having the 'worst' contract - AFTER Gilbert and his gun incident - how is Gilbert not up there?
Becasue Gilbert arenas is actually still serviceable as a player, Elton brand is only in this league b/c we have guaranteed contracts.
Oh yes, he's servicable, as a shot happy 'pale imitation' of Allen Iverson in my opinion.
I'd rather have kevin garnett on a five year extension starting next year on the sixers than gilbert arenas (who i felt was a piece of crap long before the gun incident)
Washington, like Philadelphia , is hoping for a one time buy out kind of thing in the new CBA to dump his ass
I think I heard Simmons suggest this. It would be interesting but do you really think Washington would be willing to give up a top 5 pick to shed one year of salary/remove a major headache? I could see them doing it for a future 1st, lottery protected.
Well if Simmons suggested it then I must have had one of the truly horrible ideas.
People here may hate Elton Brand and buy into the 'locker room problem' nonsense that the coach formerly known as asshat tried to project to save his own ass, but I don't buy into it, this guy is a product of Duke (a system I hate but mostly they produce quality people), a guy who played in LA on a crappy team and came to work everyday when healthy.
The Wizards supposedly have a lot of young 'talent' and 'potential' but they have absolutely no leadership or maturity in the locker room. Gilbert makes that locker room worse not better, if you're someone who believes in the 'talent' of the Wizards they need a veteran to knock some heads...As far as the sixers are concerned, Larry Brown loves trouble makers that he can repair, dude loves steven jackson
Also,Andray Blatche won't have to worry about Elton Brand taking a dump in his shoes
Supposedly he has super star talent - but if you gave him ten cents for his head you'd get like nine cents back.
How about not including a pick? Just for basketball [in our case] and [change of scenery] in theirs.
Dear god no, I truly hate Gilbert Arenas no matter how much money he makes - he's just despicable and the whole 'chip on his shoulder' cause he was drafted in the second round is so ridiculous...get over it dude.
Dear Derek
What do you know about Luke Babbitt from Nevada?
You know what would be really fun? If in three years we have a legitimate contender and we wind up with Thad Young trying to guard LeBron in the playoffs because we traded away Iguodala.
They must've gotten some pretty good pieces back in the Iguodala trade if they're contending in 3 years, or John Wall is coming off his first MVP
Trade away Iguodala and this team is probably a minimum of 3 years away from being an 8 seed and losing in the first round to the 'team that lebron james plays on'.
Though with Iguodala in 3 years they might not be capable of getting out of the first round...
Cleveland shooting 56% from the floor and only up 2 at the half. Is Eddie Jordan coaching them?
If we get a top 3 pick how differently do they approach the rebuild?
I'm still not convinced they're planning a rebuild, to be honest with you.
Are you convinced that they 'need' to rebuild, retool, or somewhere in between?
I think they need to build. Retool suggests go for it now. Rebuild suggests scrap what you have. I think you take an honest look at what you have, and you work to build the roster to accentuate the strengths and pieces you have, unless there's some kind of unbelievable opportunity to go in another direction.
I'm not sure it changes anything, nor should it, until you get them on the court in an NBA game see if wall/holiday iguodala/turner work.
As far as I'm concerned there's only 3 players on the sixers worth keeping in a rebuilding fashion right now - everyone else is expendable
I feel the same as you, Brian. Does the front office decide to spend more? It sure helps us get a coach.
It completely depends. If they really want to make a splash and they somehow lure Van Gundy or Brown here, I think (a) they're going to have overpay the coach and (b) they're going to spend money on the roster.
Now spending money, or the willingness to spend money, doesn't necessarily mean the team is going to improve.
The absolute best-case scenario, as far as I'm concerned, would be to bring in Van Gundy, pay him whatever you want, and make it 100% clear that he's here or the long haul. You hold a press conference on day 1 and tell every fan that we have a young core and right man to build a long-term winner. Things are going to get better, this team is going to compete, but it's not going to happen overnight. The young guys are going to grow together with this coach, and the lumps we take in the short term are going to pay dividends a couple years down the road.
Then ownership opens the check book and says use the MLE to bring in long-term pieces, not quick fixes. The goal is not to get to the playoffs in 2011, the goal is to win the playoffs by 2012, or 2013.
Anyway, that's my dream. No fear of the luxury tax, but no pressure to win right away. There will be free agent bargains, there will be trades to be made. We don't need a splash that locks us into another long-term contract for an aging player, we need smart moves that add pieces for the gradual build.
By the way, I think there's zero chance this happens.
I am not so sure I agree w/ that statement zero chances. My reason is the 76ers are owned by Comcast and they have deep pockets. Whether they are willing to spend is the only question BUT in the entertainment business, I am not certain they are not willing to spend.
However, this summer will be a clear answer to that question. I hope you are wrong and they get a top coach and start spending money to build a winner. That would show the 76er tradition is back.
I'm not saying there's zero chance they're willing to spend. I actually think there's a good chance they're willing to spend. What I doubt is that the franchise will be willing to take a measured approach to spending.
The most likely scenario is that Larry Brown comes back and they spend like drunken sailors to get veterans in here to get back to the playoffs next season, the future be damned.
How would you feel if they ended up going Woodson or Mitchell?
I'm not sure why Woodson would leave ATL. If I remember correctly, he had a rocky start down there, but seems to have gotten a lot out of that team in the past two years. Mitchell, absolutely not. I've had enough of sub-.500 coaches.
Other than the Sixers refusing to resign Miller for2-3 years, I've seen nothing that says the Sixers are unwilling to spend money. The magnitude of the losses the Sixers are sustaining are probably pocket change to Comcast Spending on a coach has only bottom line implications since it doesn't affect the cap. I would just love to see what Larry Brown could do with Speights, Young & Williams. I think he'd have them playing defense or not playing or playing somewhere else. By the end of 20 games, we'd know whether or notthese guys can play.
They didn't sign Miller long term - which was purely a financial decisions
They made no move to make any signings aside from veterans minimums last year
and oh yeah - they hired a coach who was being paid so they only had to pay half his salary that he was making this year
they brought back iverson purely for ticket sales (financial motivation)
But yeah, comcast really is committed to spending what it takes to build a winner...it's so obvious
I disagree.
They did not sign Miller because they were not going to win in the next year or 2 and knew he would be history by the time they would be ready to win (if at all).
I am not convinced that bringing back AI was for financial reasons but more so to bring some "energy" to a dead Wach. It worked for 1 night. That was a fun night.
Comcast doesn't care about energy - they care about ticket sales - and they got ticket sales
You want to believe what you want to believe, that's fine, but if they weren't going to win any time soon why bother pretending that they were.
Why bother whining about a step back this year....
You can spin it like Stefanski spins it, but unti I see actual evidence otherwise, Comcast cares more about the bottom line than wins and losses
How many games were you at the Wach this past year?
Not sure what that has to do with anything (i live in california, going to the wachovia is kind of a pain) - basketball teams like attendance - the sixers suck in attendance - they don't give a shit about energy - they care about butts in the seats.
Fans need to understand that many teams ownership cares about Profit and loss a lot more than wins and losses
If the sixers got 17,000 buddhist monks on a vow of silence every home game they would care more than if they got 10,000 meth heads raving their heads off - less energy - more money
Anyone who thinks the Iverosn signing wasnt'a bout getting butts in the seats is just delusional
If Miller was not about money why did they fail to use the MLE last year when they were 6M+ under the tax?
Why did they hold onto Miller and let him walk for nothing instead of trading him for value at the deadline? IMO they did not trade him because they did not want to take back any money in terms of a longer term contract.
Comcast has been consistent- they will gladly spend freely if it means a packed house and a contender. But if they are not a contender they absolutely refuse to go into tax territory (and BK has confirmed this.) In fact they left ^M+ under the tax on the table last season- likely to pay for fired coaches.
Wow, going back to a conversation from earlier today.
Areans + Caron Butler + Jamison attempted 16.5 jumpers from between 16-23 feet per game in the last full year they played together in Washington (2007).
Think about that for a second. How the hell did Stefanski ever fall for the garbage Jordan was selling.
Brian, you are one of the major bloggers. If you get behind a reasonable plan and promote it it will be seen as "the voice of the fans." You probably have more influence than you think.
Agreed!!!
+1 to above comment
Thanks guys. I think you're probably overestimating my influence, but I'll definitely put together what I think is a reasonable plan going forward in the next day or two. Maybe as a group we can modify it and hone it.
It's odd...this week is the NFL draft and the #1 pick will most likely be the fifth best player available in the draft and according to some not even the best available player at his position...(Clausen grades higher than Bradford on many boards)