Monta Ellis Sets The Bar

$67M for 6 years. The Golden State Warriors have signed Monta Ellis, their marquee restricted free agent to that deal. It may not seem like it means much, everyone knew the Warriors were going to sign Ellis, they had to. But with a slew of restricted free agents out there waiting things out, this contract will set the bar.

From the Warriors' perspective, they had to sign him. With Baron Davis leaving town, there was no question they'd have to bring Ellis back, at any price. Still, they just committed themselves for 6 years at $11M+ per for a guy to play out of position. He excelled as the team's shooting guard last season, scoring 20.2 points per game while shooting an unbelievable 53% from the floor. He doesn't have a three-point shot, but that shooting percentage is unreal.

Still, can he play the point and keep his offensive production at the same level? If he isn't scoring and shooting that high percentage, is he worth that contract? Tough questions to answer. Of course, the Sixers have some of the same questions to answer about their own restricted free agent(s).

When team executives from the Sixers, Bulls, Bobcats and Hawks woke up this morning, they must've looked at the Ellis headline and felt a little sick to their stomachs. The agents for Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon probably had the opposite reaction.

Among the top-tier restricted free agents who have yet to sign (or flee the country), those five are at least at the same level of Ellis, talent-wise. Now, I don't think the size of Ellis' contract was based purely on talent, but that won't matter. Those agents are going to use the Ellis deal as a starting point for their guys. The reported $9M/year the Hawks offered Josh Smith isn't going to cut it. Smith is a superior player to Ellis in just about every way. Iguodala is in the same boat. Ellis is a phenomenal scorer, something Iguodala is not, yet Iguodala averaged only 0.3 points/game less than Ellis on 0.5 more shots. In my mind, there's no doubt who the more valuable player is, when you take the all-around game into account.

Okafor and Deng are right there with Ellis as well. This signing may have helped, or hurt depending on your perspective, Ben Gordon more than anyone. Look at it this way, Gordon is the same size as Ellis, plays the same natural position, only Gordon is a 40% shooter from three. I like Ellis' game better, but I don't think my opinion will play into Gordon's negotiations.

So, what does all of this mean? My best guess is that next year's unrestricted free agent class is going to be a little more stacked than we thought it would. The Bulls would probably have to sink a minimum of $140M into two contracts if they want to lock down both Gordon and Deng. Josh Smith apparently doesn't want to play in Atlanta, and the Hawks would have to come up with another $3-$4M per year to get him locked down. Even before Ellis signed, the rumor was that Okafor was going to sign his qualifying offer. Which leaves us with Andre Iguodala.

Andre played a high-stakes game of chicken with the Sixers by turning down a $57M deal back in October. At the time, I said the Sixers should do whatever it takes to get him signed to an extension because I knew it would be more expensive this Summer. It turns out I was right, it will be more expensive, and wrong, because had Iguodala signed on the dotted line, the Sixers wouldn't have had nearly enough cap space to land Elton Brand. I believe Iguodala will be back with the Sixers, my gut says they'll get an extension done, but you never know. After seeing what Ellis got, maybe Andre thinks he's 10% better than Monta. Is 6 years $75M too much?

There are two ways to look at this. Andre should want to come back to Philly. He's a main reason Elton Brand came here in the first place. He has a chance to play for a perennial contender. At the same time, he's going to have a price in his head. If the Sixers don't approach that price with their offer, he can just sign the qualifying offer and spend another year building his value. Maybe he sees himself as a max-deal talent, and he thinks the Sixers (or someone else) will see things that way next year.

Re-signing Ellis was something Chris Mullen and the Warriors had to do. I bet a few GMs out there wish he'd waited a couple more weeks before he did it, though.