When I check out the rumor mill on a daily basis and find both Andre Iguodala and Amare Stoudemire with prominent placements, I get worried. After the jump I'll tell you why.
This isn't going to turn into a debate on whether Iguodala is a better player than Stoudemire, I have my feelings on it and I'm sure most of you do as well. If this was a straight up deal in a vacuum, that would be the debate, but this is not that. Phoenix want players, picks and cap relief. While they can't really offer any of the last category, they can absolutely offer the first two.
Before we talk about how a deal could be structured, I want to talk about what trading for Stoudemire means.
- Either (a) the Sixers will work out a max extension for Stoudemire (I don't think he would stay in Philly for less than the max), or (b) he's going to walk after the rest of this season.
- The Sixers will have Elton Brand, Sam Dalembert and Amare Stoudemire in their front court for the short term, Amare and Brand for the foreseeable future. Sammy and Amare may work, I'm not sure Brand/Amare does.
- Having Amare on the floor weakens your defense, considerably. If you plan to compete with him on the floor, you absolutely must have excellent defenders surrounding him and a coach who can devise a system that will effectively hide Amare's deficiencies.
- Trading your best defender for an all-offense, no D big (no matter how talented he is), is a clear indication that this team is being remade to fit Eddie Jordan's system. I can't begin to tell you how big of a mistake I believe that is.
Now, what would the deal look like?
Here's my best guess.
- Sixers receive Amare Stoudemire
- Phoenix receives Andre Iguodala, Marreese Speights, 2010 first-round pick (possibly top-three protected)
If you're getting Stoudemire, losing Speights isn't that big of a deal. There wouldn't be minutes for him anyway, and their skills are basically redundant. The pick is the killer here, for me, and I don't think there's any way Phoenix would do the deal unless they got an asset of this kind of value in return. Trading Amare wouldn't be purely to save money, because the most money they could save would be to just let him walk at the end of the season. If they're going to move him, they're going to want to accomplish two things (1) Keep a winning team on the floor for the foreseeable future, (2) Accomplish number one for less money than it would cost to re-sign Amare. Enter Iguodala, Speights and a high draft pick.
My concern isn't necessarily that Iguodala, Speights and the pick are too much to pay, it's what we're paying for. In one scenario, we're giving up those three guys for the right to give Stoudemire a max contract. In the other, we're giving up those three guys simply to get Iguodala and Speights off the books next season. Neither seems like a wise move to me, though I'm sure "Sixers Trade For Stoudemire" would make a sexy headline, possibly boost attendance and give Eddie Jordan exactly the type of player he's been salivating for since he took over. The trade deadline simply can't get here soon enough for me.
Couple things
Stoudemire's injury history just scares me
Remember at this time last season Carlos Boozer was a 'lock' to opt out of his contract for a big pay day - he didn't.
Stoudemire is due 18 million next year if he doesn't opt out - which is a possibility I believe because he ain't getting 18 million base in the 2010 off season.
If the sixers trade Iguodala I believe 'luxury tax avoidance' is the goal - if Amare doesn't opt out they are farther over the cap not more under :)
Yep, a deal like this assumes either (a) they're willing to pay the lux tax, which is debatable (b) they believe he's going to opt out this summer, which I think is a guarantee if he's in philly and there isn't an extension in place as a stipulation for the trade (c) they believe they can move their expiring contracts next season to get under the tax.
If they take on Amare at $18M next season, they've essentially added $2M to their payroll (AI9 + Speights + 1st round pick = $16M, give or take). Meaning they'd probably have to find a way to shed up to $5M through trades. Not impossible with the expiring deals they have, but it would probably cost them picks.
Honestly, I'm not sure the talent you listed is 'enough' for the Suns to make the deal anyway...the Suns have to get a bigger name (talent or no) back for Stat or their fans will revolt...
I personally don't want to see this guy on the sixers...he doesn't make them better long term in my opinion but yeah he'll cost more than Iguodala
A week ago (1/21, under the "No Brandon Roy" post), I floated an Iguodala/Dalembert for Amare/Barbosa trade, mainly because from a basketball standpoint Phoenix is the best fit for Iguodala's skills. After doing some more reading, I doubt that Sarver, Phoenix's owner, would be willing to take on the extra three years of Iguodala's salary. He has a history of making moves to save them money instead of making them a better team (prime example: trading Kurt Thomas and two first-rounders for a second-rounder and a trade exception).
Iguodala shows up under ESPN's NBA Page under "Rumors" with the Houston/McGrady trade again. Is this anything new, or just re-hash of Kate's article this morning? I still don't understand why Houston would do that trade (though the Houston GM is pretty bright and has probably seen the advanced stats that indicate Iguodala's value).
I don't have ESPN insider, but don't they usually link to the source of the rumor they're presenting?
Houston does that trade because it gives them a solid one season back up for Yao if Yao craps out again and even with McGrady's expiring contract I don't think they have enough cap room to sign a deal more talented than Andre Iguodala.
Houston does the trade if they feel that by getting Dalembert and Iguodala they can get more talent than letting McGrady expire and working with their 8-9 million to go after the second tier of free agents - and I'm betting the lack of defense means they don't like a guy like David Lee for instance
Yep, it was just a blurb from/link to Kate's article.
That's what I love
In fact WEEI interviewed Danny Ainge yesterday (got this via hoopshype rumors page this morning) and basically I guess they were smart enough to 'follow the path' and all the ray allen trade rumors trace back to the same source :)
It's why I don't pay all that much attention to new reports - since they're usually just repeats unless there is new info not printed before - especially from ESPN which is good at using other peoples info and saying it's their own (I mean Chad Ford does his job from Hawaii doesn't he?)
This would be a dark f'ing day.
I think if we trade for Amare it's not to keep him.
This rumor is absolutely terrifying! I don't believe that Amare is a good piece to build our team around. Very talented yes, but not worth our best player, our most promising scorer (in an Amare mold) and a potential impact player in the draft (Wes Johnson, Evan Turner anyone?). Those three pieces have to be worth more than Amare to the Sixers and if they aren't, the Sixers leadership is dumber than advertised, which is hard to believe.
Are there any printed rumors out there that link the sixers to the suns - I didn't read htis as a rumor just Brian doing a what if, let's not let it turn into more than it is :)
Yeah, it's not a rumor, it's just me speculating based on the rumors I've read, and driving myself crazy.
turn to sr950 or 610wip and listen to everyone wanting to dump mcnabb :)
http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/news_details/article/126/2010/january/26/is-stoudemire-coming-east.html
Would rather have Speights at his rookie scale salary and age that Amare at the max.
Fact is, this team is several years away. Signing Amare at the max is another win now move that limits your flexibility in building a ling term winner. Jyst like the Brand signing, way to premature to make that type of comitment to any one player who is not a top 5 superstar.
I agree. Speights is Amare light anyway. In a year or two he might give us what Amare gives anyway. I don't see the value in trading AI9 unless it brings an expiring contract and a young player with a chance or a pick. Cap relief won't make us a better team. It probably just saves money for Comcast. If we do get cap relief, then who do you spend the money on who is better than AI9?
BTW, Sixer fans are in last place in terms of fan loyalty:
http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/64332/20100128/study_clippers_warriors_have_nbas_most_loyal_fans/#
True source :)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704094304575029424136299794.html
From the summary it looks like loyalty is being defined as 'stable' attendance numbers - not as much sell out numbers - since the clippers rank 20th in attendance this year and probably most years (and I think all laker games should be removed from the calculation - they're going to be seasonal outliers since you can get 'cheaper' tickets to a lakers game)
That's because the Sixers are nothing more than the sum of their individual players in the minds of most fans. Whereas the Phillies, somehow, have a continuity, an essence, that endures regardless of who's on the team. Which is why there are a lot of Phillies fans who look back fondly on the days of Travis Lee and Robert Person and Tomas Perez - but I don't know anyone who looks back wistfully to the Stackhouse Sixers, the Weatherspoon Sixers. Why that is is hard to explain, but I think it's very true. Maybe it's the lack of a sense of team tradition, and the fact that for so long we were defined by one player.
Which is why there are a lot of Phillies fans who look back fondly on the days of Travis Lee and Robert Person and Tomas Perez
Really? I still love the sixers as a franchise eventhough I hate where they are - big phillies fan but i don't look back fondly on times when they, politely, sucked...
The phillies haven't been 'bad' since they were in CBP - first it was new park smell then dominant NL East team...what happens when utley and howard are gone (possibly sooner than later) Halladay is into the portion of his caree when you are paying him more than he's worth and there is no one at short or third (how does this happen you say? Cause most of the phils quality prospects are outfielders :))...then we'll see how faithful the fans are :)
Plus, I think, just in general, (Yes you can come up with examples I'm sure that contradict the point) where basketball just isn't as poopular in most cities as baseball and football if they have both...
The unique thing in Philly is that the NBA team is less popular than the NHL team which i don't think happens as much in the four sport cities...or maybe it does because most of the four sport cities are 'hard core' hockey towns?
Ugh, this would be a worse case trade scenario. Giving up the first round pick would be a horrible thing do to.
The Sixers should just admit to their fan base that the team is going to suck for awhile. Shed at least Brand, Sammie, and Willies contracts and start over.
It's too obvious that if Ed S manages to make some deals to get cap room he is just going to blow it in the offseason anyway.
To shed crappy ass contracts you need someone to take said crappy ass contracts
1. Elton Brand - considered by many the most untradeable contract in the league...
2. Sam Dalembert - stupid trade kicker probably means sixers can't move him until the 2011 trade deadline when the kicker value is at its lowest
3. Willie Green - why would anyone trade for willie green when they can just give a one year deal to eddie house or devin brown or any number of players who represent the exact same thing but didn't have a GM stupid enough to sign them to a 5 year deal (twice even if you think about it) because they drafted you.
The only rumor I believe is plausible of being close to done is the Sam/Andre McGrady deal because it makes sense from the rockets point of view and the sixers point of view (at least to me) and if the reported hold up is true (sixers wanting more) I think it still might happen as it gets closer to the deadline and the sixers get more panciked
Yeah, we are only really getting rid of Iggy and maybe Sammie if he is included in a trade with one of our younger guys.
Brand is going to be here to stay. :(
No one wants Willie Green. I bet other GMs laugh at the Sixers for playing him so much.
Hey guys, got a bunch of stuff from practice today.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/intell_blogs/tom_moore.html
This is just gold:
Great stuff, thanks Tom.
Yeah, that was fun to read, let the 'team killer' bashing begin
Yeah, it's gonna get worse before (if) it gets better.
Sigh
He's relatively diplomatic about things.
I also liked Stefanski's response when I asked if he anticipates making a coaching change before the end of the season. "As I said, we’re all accountable. That’s how I’m going to answer that question."
Oh - see - I don't take Andre response as diplomatic, to me it's saying things without saying them directly...and what it's saying ain't good
Also noted Iguodala mentioned him being part of trade rumors because "(Stefanski is) in a situation where he has to win and his job is on the line — the same thing for coaches and players. If you don’t win, anything can happen, no matter whose fault it is."
Yes, I've prepared myself for the sixers trading MY favorite sixer since he was drafted for table scraps
Hey Brian,
What about the idea of trading Iggy to the Clippers. Eric Pincus of Hoopsworld suggested the idea of a possible deal between the two teams. He proposed Marcus Camby expiring contract, AL Thornton, and the Clippers 2010 1st round pick for Iggy...
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?STORY_ID=15092
An Iggy to the Clippers deal would save Philly millions, give the Sixers the option of packaging those two draft picks --perhaps Thorton can be included-- in a draft trade to move up the draft to select either Evan Turner or Wesley Johnson who are younger versatile players in the Iggy mold, and a solid rotation player in Al Thornton. i don't see another team providing Philly with a better deal...
Here’s Pincus Email:
epincus@hoopsworld.com.
Perhaps, you can do an article together exploring the idea of a possible trade between the Clippers and Sixers, or maybe you can invite him as a possible guest on the SixersBeat podcast to discuss the possibility of a trade between both clubs…